2015 Result:
Conservative: 23464 (42.3%)
Labour: 7181 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 14317 (25.8%)
Green: 1513 (2.7%)
UKIP: 8783 (15.8%)
TUSC: 114 (0.2%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9147 (16.5%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Most of the Eastleigh council area.

Main population centres: Eastleigh, Hedge End, West End, Netley, Hamble-le-Rice, Bursledon.

Profile: Eastleigh curves around the north and east of Southampton and is essentially the affluent, owner-occupied suburbs of the city. Eastleigh itself is a railway town, while West End and Hedge End are villages that have grown into Southampton suburbs. Netley is a quaint coastal village and Hamble a yachting centre. The constituency includes Southampton International Airport and Hampshire County Cricket team`s home at the Rose Bowl.

Politics: Eastleigh was once a safe Conservative seat, held by the the party from the seat`s creation until the death of MP Stephen Milligan in 1994. The bizarre circumstances of Milligan`s death - accidental death due to autoerotic asphyxiation - were widely publicised and came at the height of the Back to Basics series of sleaze scandals, the Liberal Democrats won the seat on a huge swing at the subsequent by-election. The by-election victor David Chigley stepped down in 2005 to be replaced by Chris Huhne, who had a a meteoric rise and fall in the party, contesting the leadership less than a year after his election, narrowing missing out on the leadership in the 2007 contest, being appointed to the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Energy, and then resigning from Parliament after he pleaded guilty to perverting the course of justice by falsely claiming his wife was driving his car to avoid a speeding fine. The 2013 by-election coincided with the rise of UKIP and saw the Liberal Democrats hold the seat with UKIP in second place, but at the subsequent general election the seat fell to the Tories.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in CON GAIN FROM LD. For full details see here.

Current MP
MIMS DAVIES (Conservative) Former radio producer and director. Mid Sussex councillor. First elected as MP for Eastleigh in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 21102 (39%)
Lab: 5153 (10%)
LDem: 24966 (47%)
UKIP: 1933 (4%)
Oth: 496 (1%)
MAJ: 3864 (7%)
Con: 18648 (37%)
Lab: 10238 (21%)
LDem: 19216 (39%)
UKIP: 1669 (3%)
MAJ: 568 (1%)
Con: 16302 (34%)
Lab: 10426 (22%)
LDem: 19360 (41%)
UKIP: 849 (2%)
Oth: 636 (1%)
MAJ: 3058 (6%)
Con: 18699 (34%)
Lab: 14883 (27%)
LDem: 19453 (35%)
Oth: 446 (1%)
MAJ: 754 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
MIMS DAVIES (Conservative) Former radio producer and director. Mid Sussex councillor.
MARK LATHAM (Labour) Born Eastleigh. Business publisher.
MIKE THORNTON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Farnham. Educated at Manchester Polytechnic. Business and development manager. Contested Eastleigh councillor since 2007. MP for Eastleigh 2013 by-election to 2015.
PATRICIA CULLIGAN (UKIP) Born Manchester. Educated at Manchester University. Businesswoman. Contested South East region 2014 European election.
RON MELDRUM (Green) Cognitive Therapist.
RAY HALL (Beer, Baccy and Scratchings) Retired businessman. Contested Eastleigh 2013 by election.
Comments - 357 Responses on “Eastleigh”
  1. Reports now suggesting Woolfe is recovering well. Good news indeed. I do hope his assailant faces justice.

  2. Good that Woolfe is now recovering.

    Given that Woolfe apparently initiated this ‘fight’ (he apparently asked the other guy to ‘take things outside’), I do have to question his suitability for leadership. But I suspect that most UKIP members won’t care.

  3. It might end up being two bald men fighting over a comb. Arron Banks’ idea of a totally new party is probably the best that can be salvaged from UKIP.

    It doesn’t matter who started it, such a life-endangering assault when not made in self-defence almost certainly results in imprisonment. At least it does so here, we will have to see how it is handled in France.

  4. ‘I do have to question his suitability for leadership. But I suspect that most UKIP members won’t care.’

    I suspect his candidature might be slightly enhanced amongst this electorate

    I think there are many inside the party who believe the best way to settle to differences is to resort to fists

    Good that he’s on the mend though

  5. “I think there are many inside the party who believe the best way to settle to differences is to resort to fists”

    You’re probably exaggerating a bit there….UKIP is not Combat 18.

    It is more likely to damage Woolfe’s leadership bid IMO, if he goes ahead with it. Perhaps he will decide to defect to the Tories after all.

    John Prescott’s career never recovered from his punching that egg thrower – though Blair never dared remove him as Deputy PM he became an empty vessel with little real responsibility for the five or six years after that.

    This is also a good lesson that in life you should always be very careful about getting into fights no matter how handy you think you are.

  6. What is inconsistent to how strongly the Lib Dems performed in the 2013 by election against the national trend and the substantial 2015 swing to the Conservatives here.

    The Lib Dems remain strong here in local government but based on the 2015 figurers even if the Lib Dems win over 1000’s of Remain Tories the collapse in the large UKIP will benefit the Tories more.

  7. Well they only lost 6.5% more votes at GE 2015, so quite consistent with their drop in 2013, just a little more when the turnout was higher.

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