East Ham
2015 Result:
Conservative: 6311 (12.1%)
Labour: 40563 (77.6%)
Lib Dem: 856 (1.6%)
Green: 1299 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2622 (5%)
TUSC: 230 (0.4%)
Others: 409 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 34252 (65.5%)
Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat
Geography: Greater London. Part of the Newham council area.
Main population centres: East Ham, Beckton, Little Ilford, Manor park, Silvertown, North Woolwich.
Profile: This is the eastern part of Newham. It is a hightly multicultural area, over three-quarters of the population is non-white, making it the least white constituency in the country. Most of the population is south Asian, but it is more diverse than many of the other Asian seats which often have one community that is particularly dominant - here there are large numbers of Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani voters, as well as a large black population. More than half of the residents are immigrants to the UK. Over a third of the population gave their religion as muslim in the 2011 census. Most of East Ham is deprived, densely packed inner city terraced housing. Beckton towards the south of the seat was once the site of the gasworks that served London before the switch to North Sea gas and is still home to the largest sewage works in the country, the destination of London`s victorian sewerage system. Further south on the riverfront the seat covers two of the three huge royal docks built before the war to service large ships that couldn`t be handled by the docks upsteam. The docks closed in 1981, and the whole of the south of this seat has become a major site of redevelopment. Beckton was largely redeveloped in the 1980s, more recently the Royal Docks have seen major development. London`s City Airport is situated here, and with the ExCeL exhibition centre just outside the constituency hotels and office space are rapidly springing up the docks alongside deluxe apartment complexes like Eastern Quay.
Politics: This is a safe Labour seat, though the high Muslim population was reflected in a strong performance by Respect in 2005 (they failed to put up a candidate in 2010). This is the successor seat to Newham North East, giving it an interesting political history. The MP here until 1979 was Labour cabinet minister Reg Prentice, who defected to the Conservative party after being de-selected by left-wingers in his constituency association, despite an attempt by Julian Lewis, now Conservative MP for New Forest East, to infiltrate and take over the association in order to protect Prentice. The seat has one of the largest electorate and at the 2015 election Stephen Timms was the only Labour MP to get over 40000 votes.
| Con: | 7645 (15%) |
| Lab: | 35471 (70%) |
| LDem: | 5849 (12%) |
| GRN: | 586 (1%) |
| Oth: | 822 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 27826 (55%) |
| Con: | 5196 (13%) |
| Lab: | 21326 (54%) |
| LDem: | 4296 (11%) |
| Oth: | 8751 (22%) |
| MAJ: | 12575 (32%) |
| Con: | 6209 (17%) |
| Lab: | 27241 (73%) |
| LDem: | 2600 (7%) |
| UKIP: | 444 (1%) |
| Oth: | 783 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 21032 (56%) |
| Con: | 6421 (16%) |
| Lab: | 25779 (65%) |
| LDem: | 2599 (7%) |
| Oth: | 4245 (11%) |
| MAJ: | 19358 (49%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Seems logical that this seat would continue to have the largest majority – London is not as susceptible to UKIP as the safe Labour seats of the Northwest. The UKIP effect in turn could raise turnout, but I feel it would be more from DNV to UKIP rather than DNV to Labour, and so still decrease the majority.
Electorate:
2010: 87,809
2011: 91,531
2012: 92,126
2013: 91,194
2014: 84,108
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-in-the-bce/
Labour by 29000 over Con.
I copied Paul Way and did my own straw poll…..
UKIP 86%
CON 13%
Lab 1%
On a serious note I have placed another bet that this will be the biggest majority in terms of numbers in the country – as per last year
yes, Labour has strengthened considerably since l left the constituency in 1992 🙂
My parents- & sisters-in-law live here & will all be voting Labour as always.
Tory leaflets here say “Vote Name Surname”
The candidate has blamed the printers.
that’s happened to other parties in this campaign too, apparently, in some form or another.
Likely to see largest numerical majority again.
Lab – 75
Con – 14
LD – 4
UKIP – 4
Green – 2
Oth – 1
Labour polled 40,563 votes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000679
UKIP just saved their deposit.
Has anyone got the London wide vote share?
The BBC stupidly don’t seem to have regional totals pages like they did in 2010.
It means people like me will have to add up the individual constituencies to get the results. BBC going backwards as usual.
Anyone found any region by region figures yet?
I’ve worked out the London result
Topline Figures:
LAB: 43.8% (+7.2%)
CON: 34.9% (+0.4%)
UKIP: 8.0% (+6.3%)
LD: 7.7% (-14.4%)
GRN: 4.9% (+3.3%)
3.4% swing CON to LAB
Total Votes: 3,529,192
Labour: 1,544,768 (43.77%)
Conservaitve: 1,233,288 (34.94%)
UKIP: 280,662 (7.95%)
Liberal Democrats: 272,544 (7.72%)
Green: 172,229 (4.88%)
TUSC: 8,197 (0.23%)
Christian Peoples Alliance: 2,481 (0.07%)
Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol: 2,085 (0.05%)
National Health Action: 2,027 (0.05%)
Communites United : 1,102 (0.03%)
People Before Profit : 1,056 (0.02%)
Animal Welfare Party: 740 (0.02%)
National Liberal Party: 627 (0.01%)
Christian Party: 571 (0.01%)
BNP: 562 (0.01%)
Parties below 500 votes: 3,822 (0.10%)
Independent Candidates: 2,341 (0.06%)
Was this the seat with the highest Lab + CON share (89.7) ? I had a look at some other contenders Battersea (89.2), Tooting (89.1), Wirral West (89.3), Westminster North (88.6).
I think Harrow E was highest at 90.6
I have Harrow East at 91.0%. It was followed by its neighbours Finchley & Hendon, both at over 90%.
The smallest, topically, was Ross, Skye & Lochaber at 11.1%
Thanks, somehow completely forgot about those North london Marginals.
Which was the seat with the highest CON + LAB share in 2010? Was it here?
Yes – 85.6%. Hendon was second again.
Very slightly interesting news, the deputy chair of the East Ham Conservatives has defected to Labour over the Tory handling of the junior doctors contract.
http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/east_ham_conservative_defects_to_labour_over_junior_doctors_dispute_1_4444149
I may be wrong but I suspect there isn’t much competition for deputy chair of East Ham Conservatives.
I’m surprised they have enough local members to warrant a deputy chair.
Rumours are circulating on Twitter that Newham has voted LEAVE! Huge news story of that is true!
That would be HUGE.
I would say that is unlikely and I don’t think it’ll happen
Walford has just voted Leave! !!
Oh…sorry that should be WATFORD!
Ann odd result, maybe proving the poor really dislike the EU
Very, very poor result for REMAIN here!
I was expecting REMAIN by at least 70% in Newham.
I think this is confirmation that REMAIN have lost!
Very narrow win here in my home borough. Not too suprsised as I had heard it wasn’t going that well.
Seems Asian areas have been quite good for leave but boroughs which are more black than Asian very remain like Lambeth.
*expected REMAIN to win by 70% in Newham
TH through is 67 for remain. I know TH is more gentrified but it’s core is the same. Wonder why such a divergence.
I’ve just seen this result, I’m shocked at how close it is. Less than a 6 point victory here for remain is very, very poor. I guess the Asian demographic must have been much more pro Brexit than anyone could have though possible
I think working class Asians( more middle class Asian areas were better for remain) were quite for leave. Perhaps the only part of the labour leave vote through that wont desert for a while as I think it was more of anti establishment/lexit leave vote here more than a immigration/patriotism based leave vote in other labour areas.
Nevertheless – a stark reminder that Labour can’t even rely on all of its ethnic vote to support “progressive” policies now. This result leaves Labour in a huge mess IMO.
Slough was also a shock win for Leave with 54%. Clearly working-class Asians were more in line with the white working-classes than expected.
It does. Through I cant see anyone challenging Labour here unless the torries split and one half is quite pro immigration from the commonwealth and not associated with polices which may appear to some to be racist.
The UKIP ( or similar party) which will take Labour votes outside of London is unlikely to succeed much here without then struggling in the north ( or trying two messages at once which does not really work)
Newham Cllr Obaid Khan has been expelled by Labour for intimidation.
‘Slough was also a shock win for Leave with 54%. Clearly working-class Asians were more in line with the white working-classes than expected.’
Was it?
It was more or less in line with other large(ish) towns with relatively high Asian populations – Crawley, Stevenage, Luton etc
Of course all these towns also have a large WWC population, so I’m not sure if its the Asian vote that swings it either way.
In fact the closer nature of the results when compared to other WWC areas would suggest the opposite
Who knows what distinction the Conservative candidate James Fairrie achieved in Newham South at the 1987 general election?!