Eastbourne
2015 Result:
Conservative: 20934 (39.6%)
Labour: 4143 (7.8%)
Lib Dem: 20201 (38.2%)
Green: 1351 (2.6%)
UKIP: 6139 (11.6%)
Independent: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 733 (1.4%)
Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat
Geography: South East, East Sussex. Contains the whole of the Eastbourne council area and one ward from the Wealden council area.
Main population centres: Eastbourne, Willingdon.
Profile: The constituency consists almost entirely of the Victorian seaside town of Eastbourne, and it has all the typical attributes of a southern seaside resort. A reliance on tourism for the economy, bolstered by language courses for overseas students and conferencing, higher unemployment than the southern average and a higher than average proportion of the elderly in the population as people retire to the coast. South of Eastbourne is Beachy Head, the highest chalk sea cliff in Britain and a notorious suicide spot.
Politics: Eastbourne has been a Parliamentary constituency since the nineteenth century and for most of that time has been a safe Conservative seat. This changed in 1990 following the by-election caused by the murder of Ian Gow which was won by David Bellotti for the Liberal Democrats. While Bellotti held the seat for only two years, the seat became a closely fought marginal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and was again held by the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015..

Con: | 21223 (41%) |
Lab: | 2497 (5%) |
LDem: | 24658 (47%) |
UKIP: | 1305 (3%) |
Oth: | 2441 (5%) |
MAJ: | 3435 (7%) |
Con: | 21033 (43%) |
Lab: | 5268 (11%) |
LDem: | 19909 (41%) |
UKIP: | 1233 (3%) |
Oth: | 949 (2%) |
MAJ: | 1124 (2%) |
Con: | 19738 (44%) |
Lab: | 5967 (13%) |
LDem: | 17584 (39%) |
UKIP: | 907 (2%) |
Oth: | 574 (1%) |
MAJ: | 2154 (5%) |
Con: | 22183 (42%) |
Lab: | 6576 (12%) |
LDem: | 20189 (38%) |
Oth: | 995 (2%) |
MAJ: | 1994 (4%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005











Stephen Lloyd is a bit of a local media whore. There’s hardly an edition of the south east local news that he doesn’t manage to wangle himself into. A good old fashioned “winning here” Lib Dem. By contrast the Tory MP who briefly replaced him in 2015 quickly became pretty unpopular locally, partly because of some kind of low-level scandal. I think these things largely explain his surprise re-election rather than anything about Eastbourne per se, a town I know quite well. The town does seem to have improved a bit over the past few years, especially since the burnt out pier was repaired.
I generally disdain Lloyd and his pointing-at-potholes approach to being an MP but I really do admire him for the stand he has taken on this – very courageous and will go down well in his constituency.
I was gonna say soubds like typical lib demery
Does anyone know whether Lloyd is to contest the GE as an Ind?
In the betting markets on Inds likely to win, he is listed after the East Devon Ind, Lady Hermon, Frank Field, George Galloway and so on.
I had assumed that one map/list – by Ind certain to win – they meant the Speaker, but maybe that won’t be certain now either.
Looks like he voted in favour of the bill to stop a no deal and relations between him and the Lib Dems seem cordial, so if he does stand as an independent would be unlikely to face a Lib Dem opponent.
That’s the odd thing though, 8 Leavers voted for the Bill.
I think Frank Field did so because the Kinnock Amendment was added ie he wants to Leave with a deal unlike Hoey, Mann et al.
Incidentally – and I realise it’ll only affect half a dozen seats such as Southport, W & L, Rochdale – the Liberal Party have said they’ll stand in seats to give Liberal Leavers a choice in the North West.
I know Eastbourne a fair bit. It’s highly likely the Lib Dems will lose the seat if Lloyd is not their candidate. As Lloyd’s stance on Brexit highlights, this is not a seat where Swinson’s Bollocks To Brexit approach will go down at all well. Ironically Lewes next door will be far more receptive to it if the big Green vote there agrees to vote tactically.
Here I think it’s most likely that either Lloyd will have the whip quickly restored or he will not be opposed by the Lib Dems if he stands as an independent….it’s possible of course that he might stand down and in that case I expect a Tory gain.