East England Euro Candidates 2014

The East of England returns seven MEPs. In 2009 it elected three Conservative MEPs, two UKIP, one Liberal Democrat and one Labour. UKIP MEP David Campbell Bannerman subsequently rejoined the Conservative party and will stand on the Conservative list at the next election. Full results from 2009 are here.

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RICHARD HOWITT (Labour) Born 1961, Reading. Educated at Oxford University. Harlow councillor 1985-1995.Contested Billericay 1987. MEP for Essex South 1994-1999, MEP for East of England since 1999.
2
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ALEX MAYER (Labour)
3
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SANDY MARTIN (Labour) Ipswich councillor since 2002, Suffolk councillor since 1997.
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BHAVNA JOSHI (Labour) Born in Huddersfield. Educated at Kings College London. Solicitor. Former Wandsworth councillor. Contested Central Suffolk and North Ipswich 2010.

5. Paul Bishop 6. Jane Basham
7. Chris Ostrowski
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VICKY FORD (Conservative) Born 1967, Omagh. Educated at Cambridge University. Contested Birmingham Northfield 2005. MEP for East of England since 2009.
2
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GEOFFREY VAN ORDEN (Conservative) Born 1945, Waterlooville. Former brigadier in the Intelligence Corps. MEP for the East of England since 1999.
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DAVID CAMPBELL BANNERMAN (Conservative) Born 1960, Bombay. Educated at Edinburgh University. Former communications director and special advisor to Sir Patrick Mayhew. Tunbridge Wells councillor 1992-1996 for the Conservatives. Contested Glasgow Rutherglen 1997, Warwick and Leamington Spa 2001 for the Conservatives, North Cornwall 2005, Highlands and Islands 2007 Scottish election, Suffolk South 2010 for UKIP. MEP for the East of England since 2009. Contested UKIP leadership election 2006, 2010. Deputy leader of UKIP 2006-2010. Rejoined the Conservative party in 2011.
4
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JOHN FLACK (Conservative) Educated at Abbs Cross High School. Director of a property investment company. Contested Enfield Southgate 2001, Northumbria 1994, London region 1999, Eastern Region 2009 European elections.

5. Tom Hunt 6. Margaret Simons
7. Jonathan Collett
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ANDREW DUFF (Liberal Democrat) Born 1950, Birkenhead. Educated at Cambridge University. Cambridge councillor 1982-1990. MEP for East of England since 1999. Awarded the OBE for services to politics in 1997.
2
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JOSPEHINE HAYES (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Oxford university. Barrister. Colchester councillor since 2012.
3
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BELINDA BROOKS-GORDON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middlesex Polytechnic and Cambridge University. Psychologist. Cambridgeshire councillor.
4
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STEPHEN ROBINSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County High School and University of Central Lancashire. PR and fundraising consultant. Essex councillor, Chelmsford councillor since 2011 and Epping Forest councillor 1990-1998. Contested West Chelmsford 2001, 2005, Chelmsford 2010.

5. Michael Green 6. Linda Jack
7. Hugh Annand
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PATRICK O`FLYNN (UKIP) Born 1965, Cambridge. Educated at Kings College London. Daily Express journalist.
2
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STUART AGNEW (UKIP) Born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester. Farmer. Contested Mid Norfolk 2001, Norfolk North 2005, Broadland 2010. MEP for East of England since 2009.
3
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TIM AKER (UKIP) Born in Aveley. Educated at Nottingham University. Head of UKIP policy unit.
4
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MICHAEL HEAVER (UKIP) Educated at Coleridge Community College and University of East Anglia. Head of online engagement for UKIP.

5. Mick McGough 6. Andy Monk
7. Mark Hughes
1
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RUPERT READ (Green) Educated at Oxford University. Academic. Norwich councillor 2004-2011. Contested Eastern region 2009 European elections, Norwich North 2009 by-election.
2
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MARK EREIRA (Green) Born 1962. Educated at Kings School, Ely and Kent University. Consultant. Suffolk county councillor since 2009. Former St Edmundsbury councillor.Contested Bury St Edmunds 1997 for Labour, 2010 for the Green party.

3. Jill Mills 4. Ash Haynes
5. Marc Scheimann 6. Robert Lindsay
7. Fiona Radic
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RICHARD PERRY (BNP) hotelier.
2
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CHRISTOPHER LIVINGSTONE (BNP)

3. Mark Burmby 4. Paul Hooks
5. Stephen Smith 6. Philip Howell
7. Michael Braun
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ROBIN TILBROOK (English Democrat) Born 1958, Kuala Lumpur. Solicitor. Founder of Chairman of the English Democrats. Contested Eastern region 2009 European elections, Brentwood and Ongar 2010, Essex Police Commissioner elections 2012.

2. Charles Vickers 3. Stephen Goldspink
4. Maria Situmbeko 5. Bridget Cowan
6. Don Whitbread 7. Jeremy Moss
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CARL CLARK (CPA) Educated at Earlham Comprehensive. Sports coach. Breckland councillor since 2011, originally elected for Labour.

2. Mark Clamp 3. Chris Olley
4. Stephen Todd 5. Jane Clamp
6. Kirsty Evans 7. Kevin Austin
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PAUL WIFFEN (An Independence from Europe) Educated at King's School, Worcester and Oxford University. Musician and film maker. Contested West Central 2008 London Assembly elections, Scotland 2009 European election for UKIP.

2. Karl Davies 3. Raymond Spalding
4. Edmond Rosenthal 5. Rupert Smith
6. Dennis Wiffen 7. Betty Wiffen
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BRIAN DENNY (No2EU) RMT officer. Contested East of England region 2009 European election.

2. Eleanor Donne 3. Stephen Glennon
4. David Goode 5. Leonardo Impett
6. Teresa MacKay 7. Emily Thompson-Golding
Comments - 43 Responses on “East of England European Candidates 2014”
  1. I think five seats are pretty safe: 2x Conservative, 2x UKIP, 1x Labour, which leaves two more.

    Will the Tories and UKIP get three times the vote of LibDems and Greens, and 50% more than Labour? Will Labour get 2x the vote of LibDems and Greens? Given that both LibDems and Greens should get 9-10%, both answers may well be no, given the LibDems a good chance to hold and the Greens one of their best chances for a pick-up. (Even LD -5%, Greens unchanged could see them both with a seat if Tories -5% or more, UKIP +5.5% or less, Labour +7% or less!)

  2. I think the Lib Dems will narrowly hold their seat in this region. I suppose the Greens could just take the other seat as well. I expect the others to break down 2 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 Lab.

  3. Indeed – 2 UKIP, 2 Con, 1 Lab. The Greens were close to knocking off the lab seat last time and I think they’ll be pushing the LD hard this time. The seventh seat is very hard to call but I suspect that UKIP and Lab will be up against whichever of the Greens and LD is trailing

  4. http://steveunclesenglishdemocrats.org/2014/03/16/english-democrats-2014-eu-elections-60-candidates-list-100-coverage-of-england/

    2 East of England 7
    Lead Candidate: – Robin Tilbrook
    Agent: – Charles Vickers
    Slogan: English Democrats – “I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean !”
    1/ Robin Tilbrook
    2/ Charles Vickers
    3/ Stephen Goldspink
    4/ Maria Situmbeko
    5/ Bridget Cowan
    6/ Don Whitbread
    7/ Jeremy Moreton-Moss

  5. Some of those slogans are…interesting. The BNP is focused on “unsustainable housing” for some reason.

    An Independence from Europe sounds like some kind of offshoot of UKIP. Probably wrong though.

  6. Neil, you’re right, “An Independence from Europe” is the work of an ex-UKIP MEP, and has presumably been named so as to appear at the top of the ballot paper. UKIP have already complained to the Electoral Commission about it on the grounds that it is misleading, but it looks as though they will be allowed to stand.

  7. It sort of is,Neil,actually, and contains several ex-UKIP members (notably Mike Nattrass in the West Midlands). Also, I have not seen a single Independent candidate nominated amongst the UK’s finalised European Parliament candidates list this year, including this one.

  8. Another election that pushes failed and unpopular party politics down our throats. This is not people politics and the ‘importance’ they attach to it is pulpable, they only want their own party members to vote ideally, so its another low key EU election.
    All these party politicians who want out of the EU, but like the trough that feeds them, are lining up to represent us in this what they call ‘defunct’ EU. All of them are exploiting us taxpayers, rather than presenting us with a popular choice of candidates we are being subjected for more froth at the doorstep.
    For the first time ever I will not vote in the EU election as they all want us to leave, a shot in both feets afaic.
    What needs reforming never gets touched, i.e. the audit of all finances and the dreded appointed commissioners who do as they like. So if you want out of the EU, wait for a referendum to vote in but don’t vote for these party political jokers masquerading as representatives, when all they do is take the shilling and only ever converse wityh their own supporters, never the public at large who they represent.

    Where are the truly Independent candidates?

  9. Andrew,

    The notion that “The Greens were close to knocking off the lab seat last time” is not quite accurate.

    Based on the D’Hondt proportional representation system used in England and Wales, the Greens were not 27,000 votes short of snapping the seat from Labour, but they were only 16,000 votes short of snatching the second UKIP seat for themselves.

    In other words, 9.8% of the votes (instead of the 8.8% achieved) would have sufficed to gain a seat, and as a result UKIP would have had only one seat.

  10. I don’t know if other people are aware of Iain Dale’s analysis/prediction – see http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/04/26/european-election-result-predictions-east-anglia

  11. I don’t think the Greens will get that last seat as all the indications are that their vote will be down nationally while specifically in this region they have been falling back in some of their stronger areas (losing CC seats for example last year in Cambridge, Norwich and Watford). I’m not sure who will take it – probably a second Labour seat but wouldn’t rule out the LDs holding on or even the Tories scraping a third seat

  12. Interesting prediction from Iain Dale. UKIP topping the East of England sounds very plausible. The Tories have enough natural support here to mitigate any terrible loss to UKIP.

    For me the question is how Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens will perform. I’m sure Labour’s position has improved since 2009, but that’s surely in their heartlands here. Norwich, Ipswich, Bedford, Luton, possibly Cambridge (if there’s an anti-Lib Dem vote) and pockets of Essex and Hertfordshire. Elsewhere they’re going to be squeezed in Great Yarmouth, Kings Lynn and Waveney by UKIP.

    If the Greens had a better leader to build a stronger national profile it might have benefited them.

  13. 3 ukip
    2 con
    2 lab

  14. Pete, you omit to mention the two Green gains in Essex last year.

    Also there is a need to take into account differing electoral cycles. The results you mention are results that compare 2013 with 2009, when the Euros were taking place – some of the seats the Greens won in 2009 were won on the back of the Euro election uplift in support that the Green Party gets every 5 years, and is beginning to appear in the opionion polls now.

    You claim about the Green Party “all the indications are that their vote will be down nationally”, but comparing with Euro-election opinion polls a similar time before the last European election, there is precious little difference in where the Green Party is. By contrast Cons down more than 7% and LDs down more than 8%. Its hard to see EITHER of those parties winning as many seats as they did 5 years ago.

  15. In Norwich Greens have the most posters followed by Labour. Yet to see any Tory or Lib posters. No UKIP but unlike some parties their leaflets have been read.
    Tim Passmore the Tory PCC for Suffolk has been in the news recently – I don’t think he’s done the Tories in Norfolk
    any good at all and convinced many other that amateurs should stay out of policing.

  16. Pardon the intrusion but I can’t get any sense out of the officials
    I will be voting by proxy. I am trying to instruct my proxy how to vote, but I don’t know how a ballot paper is to be completed.

    Is it one single X to be used for the candidate or party of one’s choice?
    Is it an order of preference?
    or erm …
    Thanks

  17. Almost everyone I speak to is saying they are going to vote UKIP, which is a bit worrying. Maybe its just a protest for the EUROs so they can vote no to everything in the EU, which might be kinda fun, but in a general election might be rather less fun. Are the anti-EU candidates not just Tory plants to dilute the UKIP vote?

  18. Steve, it is one single X. Lets hope they put it in the right place!

  19. Thanks Ben Foley

    I’ve managed to think of another question

    If I wish to vote for someone who is head of a party list (and who isn’t a no-hoper), would my vote be wasted if I voted for them in person?

  20. SteveH – if the person is Richard Howitt, Vicky Ford or Patrick O’Flynn then yes, it’s largely wasted. They are going to get returned anyway so you might as well vote on a different basis (their parties might well get more than one seat, so still worth voting for them, but the heads of those three lists are pretty much guaranteed seats)

    If the person is Richard Duff or Rupert Read then it could be the difference between them being elected or not (obviously its vastly unlikely that it would come down to one vote in a region of millions, but there goes)

    If the person is the head of any of the other lists then realistically it’s a wasted vote, they aren’t going to get in anyway,

  21. UKIP 35% 3
    Tories 27% 2
    Labour 20 % 2
    Lib-Dems 8% 0
    Green 7% 0

  22. Ben Foley isn’t gonna like that one

  23. Labour will not take 2 seats here, they are just not present enough and haven’t recovered enough here since 2010:

    3 seats guaranteed for UKIP, 1 seat guaranteed for the Tories, 1 seat guaranteed for Labour.

    The final 2 seats will go to 2 out of UKIP, the Tories, and the Greens. The Lib Dems will be in very close contention too but I think that they will be just behind the Greens in the popular vote, denying them of a seat as both of the Lib Dems and the Greens in all likelihood won’t win seats.

    The 7th seat here will be one of the tightest in the country. I did say 4 UKIP guaranteed earlier this month but I think voter confusion will lead to them losing up to a sixth of their support to An Independence from Europe.

  24. The big irony, if the Greens take a seat and the Liberals don’t (and I think that if is very large indeed) is that Andrew Duff has, according to the Climate Action Network, a better “green” voting record than either of the UK’s current Green MEPs…

  25. No, James, it isn’t irony, it is rediculously selective quoting of stats. Duff is on 90%, while the Greens Keith Taylor is on 89%, which is virtually no difference when missing a vote because of illness would reduce the score. But Keith Taylor’s stats exclude the time before he was MEP – his predecessor, Caroline Lucas, was on 100%. Abstaining because a proposal is too weak when CAN supported it would also be counted against by CAN.

    Anyway, looking at the parties, rather than the indivitudals, LibDems as a whole are on 71%, while Greens on 85%.

    On top of this, there is nothing in the stats about support/opposition to TTIP – Duff’s party supports it, even though it would enable businesses to sue governments that introduced environmental legislation.

  26. The overall LibDem VS Green stats are wholly irrelevant, given that the Lib Dems in the East will either end up with Duff (1 MEP) or no Duff (no MEPs). I wasn’t really indicating that the irony was that Duff was some kind of green issue deity, more that since he tends to vote much like the Greens on these issues there’s unlikely to be a noticeable improvement in Green issues if he is succeeded by a Green (hence the irony, the region votes to get a greener MEP and basically just ends up making a swap/losing a current fairly small-g green MEP rather than actually improving the Green situation a great deal).

  27. James,
    I’ve just done a bit more digging. CAP based their stats on just 10 votes on climate change. So the difference between Duff’s 90% and Keith Taylor’s 89% is that KT wasn’t an MEP at the time of the first vote (when Caroline Lucas did vote). (ie 9/10 vs 8/9).

    There is no more (in fact less, because of attitudes to whipping) reason for assuming how Rupert Read votes will be determined by how Jean Lambert votes than there is for lumping Duff in with Bill Newton Dunn. Overall LibDem vs Green stats would only be irrelevant if there was no reason at all for thinking Duff’s votes will sometimes be determined by whipping.

    And as for ‘Green issues’. Nothing on workers rights, equality, animal welfare, nuclear power, globalisation, access to healthcare, etc, etc. Assuming climate change is all Green supporters are interested in is like assuming free trade is all LibDems are interested in.

  28. You still seem to be misinterpreting my point slightly, but never mind. I get the slight impression you think I was trying to denigrate the Green record on these issues, which I wasn’t – the point I was making was simply that it seems ironic they’d gain a seat by unseating the best of the region’s current MEPs on many of their core issues. In just the same way as it’d be ironic if, for the sake of an unrealistic but valid comparison, Bill Cash got unseated by a member of UKIP.

    Anyway, we’ll see how it goes today… I think 3/2/1/1 seems moderately likely, with Labour a bit short of their second and Duff clinging on by a knife edge, though 3/2/2 would also be no surprise. I’d be more surprised by 3/2/1/1 with the Greens on the lowest seat (not all that unpleasantly so). And if it’s 4/2/1 or 3/3/1 I’d be a tad surprised but that would probably be masked by my other less positive feelings on the matter!

  29. I agree with Christian that 2 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 Lab seat are probably safe. The final two will likely be between Con/UKIP at the top of the table and Green/Lib for the last seat. I can see those going to UKIP and Green respectively, bringing the totals to UKIP 3, Con 2, Lab 1, Green 1.

  30. Climate Change (and associated energy/transport) policy is all I care about at european level and that makes it very hard to choose between Duff/LibDems and Greens. Trying to build a low-carbon economy without nuclear seems dumb to me, but we really do need more Green representation. Duff has a very good record on energy and did a good job on software patents (OK I care about that too :-) And it seems it’s going to be a close-run thing between them here. Sadly I mostly live in a region populated by the ‘what climate change?’ bigots of UKIP, so it’s going to go very badly overall.

  31. didn’t vote in the Euros as the stench of greed was a bit too off-putting

  32. Eastern: UKIP 33%(3),
    Con 25%(2),
    Lab 16.5%(1),
    LD 9(1)%,
    GRN 8.5%,
    BNP 3%,
    Other 5%

  33. I wonder if there’s any chance of the Lib Dems and Greens both getting a seat. Probably slim, but it wouldn’t shock me. I suppose that’d mean (and note that I AM NOT necessarily predicting this):

    UKIP 2
    Con 2
    Lab 1
    LD 1
    Green 1

  34. P.T.R.

    Yes, it is not inconceivable: with vote shares like Con 28%, UKIP 28%, Lab 19%, LibDem 10%, Green 10% (oths 5%).

    There have been lots of people here abouts predicting that Green Party won’t win in Eastern. I would be interested to hear from you, if the YG final poll is right, in which regions you think will the Green Party make its gains, since they predict the Greens will _gain_ 1-4 seats (you won’t be surprised to hear I hope they are right…) (saying YouGov are wrong is dodging my question, btw)?

  35. Ben,

    I don’t really know for certain what to think. The East, London, South East, South West, and maybe Scotland are viable options. I doubt the Greens will take anything in the north, although the North West just has so many MEPs that it could happen there.

    I’d imagine it will be very, very close between the Lib Dems and the Greens. I think both will get around 10%, and will wind up with 2-5 MEPs.

    If the Greens gain anything, I’d think Eastern might be their best bet. That said, Andrew Duff seems quite popular, so that alone could keep them out if it’s close.

    I think there will be four Green MEPs, but I’m not sure where they’ll come from, aside from almost definite wins in London and the South East.

  36. PTR, Thanks for your thoughts.

    My suspicion is that the North West is the most likely Green gain, largely because of the particular configuration of the results last time, with many left-leaning voters regretting not voting Green last time, allowing Griffin to squeak in ahead of the Green candidate. However, I don’t know enough of how the campaign has gone to get beyond a suspicion. Local results published so far lead me to suspect a Green gain is more likely in the SW than Eastern. If Greens manage 4 gains, my guess would be those three, plus Scotland.

    But I’m still wating to hear from JDA, 111, James Youd, Joe, Pete, akmd about how they would respond to my question – if the YG final poll is right, in which regions you think will the Green Party make its gains, since they predict the Greens will _gain_ 1-4 seats (and saying YouGov are wrong is dodging my question, btw)?

  37. Ben,
    I don’t think the final YouGov poll is going to be any more accurate than the range of polls which has seen them getting between 4 and 12%, the final few of which were in the lower regions of that range. I would say the Greens could well loose a percentage off their England and Wales tally of ’09. Scotland is a different matter and I would predict them doing better than ’09 by some points.
    From a quick glance at the councils that have voted overnight in Eastern the Green percentage is down in Cambridge, Ipswich and Colchester. I would say my prediction for UKIP is pretty much on the ball seeing what has happened in south Essex. I may have even overestimated the Tories ability to achieve 27% we will have to see how whether Hertfordshire, South Cambs and other such wealthy areas hold up for them.
    Meanwhile I think that Labour could still achieve 20% looking at higher turnouts in the cities when the reverse may have been true in ’09 when the right leaning shires where also up.
    Overall the Greens could well loose London and gain the North West where I agree there will be a small tactical vote for them as an anti-BNP left vote.

  38. How sad that 60% of the options are actively campaigning against the institution they’re seeking election to.

  39. James, I know that ppl who were playing down the Green Party’s chances are likely to want to say ‘but the final YouGov may be wrong’. That’s why I said “saying YouGov are wrong is dodging my question”. I think the two of us have agreed that NW is Greens most likely gain, but you still dodged my question by seeming to suggest Greens could lose London. Do you think you do do the thought experiment about how the Green Party might end up with 1-4 _net_ gains?

    What about you JDA, 111, Joe, Pete, akmd? Assuming the final YouGov is right, and the the Green Party might end up with 1-4 _net_ gains, where would YOU predict them for?

  40. Ben Foley:

    The Greens have done very well in the South West and West Midlands seemingly, with a setback in the East, and good performances in the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, and the North West. The results in London were ok for them, but their failure to pick up seats in Haringey and only single seats in Islington, Camden, and Lambeth indicates an alright performance but hardly an outstanding one.

    I think that the Greens will hold both their present European Parliament seats, and I think they could possibly pick up seats in the South West (most likely), North West (second most likely), and the West Midlands (third most likely). Yorkshire and Humber is a possibility too though there are only 6 seats available there so I think that it is unlikely that the Greens will take a seat there. The East of England looks a bit dodgy right now if you look from a Green perspective. Nevertheless the Greens are in contention in the East for sure.

    On another note I think that the Lib Dems have lost their seat in London as the local results for them were catastrophic there. They might hold on to their seat in the South East though as I don’t know how areas without local elections in the South East voted yesterday I can’t say for sure.

    The Lib Dem vote seems to have held up well in the East though while the Greens haven’t advanced there. I think it will be very tight between the Lib Dems and the Greens in the East now though UKIP could be looking at 4 seats there so it is possible that neither the Lib Dems or the Greens will get a seat in the East.

  41. Agreed with most of 111’s post – though it’s hard to say on a lot of these things as I’m only looking at councillor numbers and the underlying votes in 2nd places etc are obviously pretty crucial here.

    I’d guess GRN holds in London/SE, Green gains maybe North West, South West (fairly probable), WM (possible) with outside shots in Y&H and the East (though I don’t think they’ll get either of those). They seem to need to build up good bases in semi-urban areas, preferably with plenty of lefty student types, like bits of Sheffield or Norwich.

  42. Thanks, 111. Yes, I would tend to agree the local elections point in those directions for the Green Party, but now I know results from Mersyside and Manchester think Green chances in the North West are even stronger than I had thought, and now _I_ would put that very strongly as the most likely Green gain. Worries I had had about London have been eased by the local results (eg 2nd in the Hackney Mayoral election), and my worries about the South East have been eased by news like a Green gain in Worthing (Worthing? of all places!). But I am increasingly pessimistic about the chances that Greens will have got a European seat here in the East, the more local results I learn.

    JDA, Joe, Pete, akmd: any of you willing to answer me (see my last 3 posts)?

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