Ealing North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 14419 (29.7%)
Labour: 26745 (55.1%)
Lib Dem: 1575 (3.2%)
Green: 1635 (3.4%)
UKIP: 3922 (8.1%)
TUSC: 214 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12326 (25.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Ealing council area.

Main population centres: Northolt, Greenford, Perivale.

Profile: A north-west London seat, bisected by the A40. The seat covers Northolt, Greenford and Perivale and is mostly relatively homogenous semi-detached suburbia built in the 1920s and 1930s as a dormitory for Ealing, along with some slightly later built council housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority community, with just over half the population describing themselves as non-white in the 2011 census. There is also a substantial Polish community - in the 2011 census it had the highest proportion (8.5%) of people born in Poland of any seat in the country.

Politics: Ealing North was a classic marginal that has largely matched the ebbs and flows of the national political picture. Historically it has seen some extreme swings, sometimes thanks to local issues. The changing ethnic make up of the seat though have made it ever safer for Labour and, despite its history of volatility, it now looks out of reach for the Conservatives.


Current MP
STEPHEN POUND (Labour) Born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and LSE. Former area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears 2005-2007. Shadow Northern Ireland Minister since 2010. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a "Tony Martin Bill" allowing householders to use force against burgulars: "The people have spoken, the bastards".
Past Results
2010
Con: 14722 (31%)
Lab: 24023 (50%)
LDem: 6283 (13%)
BNP: 1045 (2%)
Oth: 1605 (3%)
MAJ: 9301 (20%)
2005*
Con: 13897 (30%)
Lab: 20956 (45%)
LDem: 9148 (20%)
GRN: 1319 (3%)
Oth: 1187 (3%)
MAJ: 7059 (15%)
2001
Con: 13185 (29%)
Lab: 25022 (56%)
LDem: 5043 (11%)
GRN: 1039 (2%)
Oth: 668 (1%)
MAJ: 11837 (26%)
1997
Con: 20744 (37%)
Lab: 29904 (54%)
LDem: 3887 (7%)
Oth: 1191 (2%)
MAJ: 9160 (16%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THOMAS O`MALLEY (Conservative)
STEPHEN POUND (Labour) See above.
KEVIN MCNAMARA (Liberal Democrat)
AFZAL AKRAM (UKIP)
MEENA HANS (Green) Tutor.
DAVID HOFMAN (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 77 Responses on “Ealing North”
  1. Another thing about Southall, though you do also get it in other areas where there are large Asian populations, is that shops as well as houses display election posters (sometimes more than one of them!). Glassy Junction displayed a Conservative poster at the by-election during the last parliament, so I have even less reason to give them my custom! The thing about the rupees is correct, though I suspect that that is a gimmick, the rupee still not exactly being a cutting-edge currency despite India’s increasing influence. You will quite often see election posters in shops in Newham as well, though they tend to be more heavily predominantly Labour ones. I myself never would have dreamt of displaying a poster in my shop.

  2. In Richmond it would have been financial suicide!

  3. “In my lifetime (another 40-50 years hopefully) will we see Labour winning M25 border seats like East Surrey, Epsom and Hertsmere which are today solidly Tory? Thus moving the white flight out of Essex, Surrey and Hertfordshire into eg. Sussex, Northants and Suffolk.”

    I would believe Elmbridge and East Surrey would be always be too elite in a Westminser/Chelsea sense to ever have any real strong Lab presence.

    Spelthorne, Hertsmere and Epsom however are little more ordinary could see demographic changes in the future which could possibly favour Labour a little bit though the later seat has always contained either parts of Mole Valley or Banstead would certainly put it out of range for anyone other than the Conservatives to safely win it.

  4. Agreed. In a way Esher etc. is actually richer now as house prices have gone stratospheric and it is now increasingly full of oligarchs and Chelsea Footballers.

    More ordinary wealth has headed out to the Surrey Hills and into Hampshire.

    As I said on another board, not all suburbs are declining (note Kingston and Richmond, which are, if anything, more exclusive than ever), but it does appear that the less attractive, middle-income ‘burbs do appear to be on a downward trajectory.

    Spelthorne is the most likely corner of Surrey to experience decline as it is situated right next to Hounslow and is not, with some exceptions, particularly attractive.

  5. I agree, Spelthorne is probably most likely with Hounslow on its border. Epsom and Ewell has very grim patches too but is lucky that it has the upscale/elite bits of Sutton next to it separate it from the Mitcham/Croydon grottiness.

  6. The Hounslow wards directly adjacent to Spelthorne are actually quite nice. It’s the other Feltham & Heston wards that are poor.

  7. Has anyone noticed the election result here? Appears the Conservatives are down to one seat in Cleveland ward.

  8. This is one of four seats in Greater London where the Tories haven’t selected a candidate yet.

    The others are the Islington seats and Dagenham&Rainham.

  9. Dagenham was a target seat last time as well. UKIP has taken their support there I suspect along with many of their members.
    And this seat has a stronger Tory vote than many in London which have chosen.

  10. Thomas O’Malley has been selected as Tory candidate. I assume this is the Richmond councillor for South Richmond:

    http://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?mgl=mgUserInfo.aspx&UID=758

  11. How do the Conservative do so badly here?

    Conservative majorty in 1987 was 15153 (28.18%).

    23.84% swing from Con to Lab between 1987 and 2010.

    Boundary changes added a safe Conservative ward from Ealing Acton in 1997 only to remove it again in 2010.

    Apart from minor ward boundary changes the boundaries since 2010 are very similar to 1983 to 1997.

    Can’t be all down to Pound’s personal vote. This constituency has not really changed in the way that Brent North has.

  12. Sometimes I think Anthony uses you as clickbait, Dalek.

    Of course this constituency has changed, massively so, in a similar direction to Brent North.

    Locally the Tories have never ever been so weak – they held a substantial number of council seats here even in very dark years in the 1990s and early 2000s.

    Now it appears even CCHQ have written it off as hopelessly unwinnable. Expect a Con vote of below 25% here.

  13. I don’t even know why the Tories are bothering selecting anyone for seats like this. They are out of reach these days. A trip to Greenford will tell you that.

  14. More optimistic Conservatives expected this to be gained in 2010, including Dalek IIRC. Not an entirely unjustified view, given the very strong Tory performance in the 2006/2008 local/mayoral elections, and the poll leads Cameron had in 2008-9. The disappointing results in 2010, 2012 and 2014 point conclusively to massive demographic changes here since Boris’s first victory in 2008. I expect the Tory vote share here won’t be that much higher than in Southall in 2015, which is pretty amazing.

  15. Dalek – HH is completely right about this constituency. It’s socially mixed, and is considerably less owner-occupied than Brent North. Its non-white population is not quite as high as that constituency, but it’s large enough to be a serious problem for the Conservatives. You say it’s not just Pound’s personal vote, but a comparison between local & general election results in 2010 will reveal just how large his personal vote is. He is sure that he carried even Cleveland ward in the 2010 election, while the ward on that occasion easily re-elected 3 Conservative councillors (though 2 of its seats have been gained by Labour on big swings since). It’s a perfect storm for the Tories – a combination of very large-scale demographic change in terms of a very sharp increase in the non-white (chiefly Asian) vote, and a very popular Labour MP. Once Pound retires, which he probably will do in 2020, the Tories’ position will improve, but not enough to win the seat back in anything save a total Labour meltdown.
    I was working (job-wise) in the Hobbayne ward during the 2010 election campaign. I saw that someone was going door-to-door, in the street where I was doing the same as part of my job, approached him & asked what he was doing. He said that he was a Conservative candidate in the local elections. Without identifying myself as a Labour supporter, I asked how he was doing, and he said “Normally, I’d have a great chance – but Steve Pound is too popular. His coat-tails will make it very hard for me to win”. He was right – he was narrowly defeated in a split. Since then of course Hobbayne has been won very heavily by Labour in the 2014 elections, as has every ward except Cleveland which is now split.

  16. Very much in agreement with both HH and Barnaby. This seat is in a wedge of Middlesex (Hounslow/Southall/Hayes/Wembley) that the Tories really should just give up on.

    I would say that Acton probably has more Tory potential then Perivale, Northolt or Greenford.

  17. Yes. Acton is closer to London and is more Victorian terraces than interwar semis, hence the gentrification potential is much better.

  18. I think the Acton parts could offer Ealing an outside chance of being a Conservative council again in the future.

    Probably the sixth best prospect of a Conservative council gain in 2018 after Hammersmith and Fulham, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Sutton.

  19. If Southall and Ealing North remain almost entirely Labour then that’s unlikely.

  20. True, though Ealing has a history of being volatile, they gained it in 2006 when they were still a fair way behind in 2002. Some wards in Ealing North are still winnable though fewer than there were.

  21. Afzal akram is standing in ealing north for ukip.

  22. Labour by 14000 over Con

  23. Polish election programme, live stream:

    http://tvpstream.tvp.pl/

  24. Stephen Pound has announced he will stand down at the next election.

  25. One of those old-school MPs no-one ever seemed to have a bad word to say about. Not too many like him in the commons.

  26. The new Labour candidate is James Murray. Former Islington Cllr and currently London Deputy Mayor for Housing

  27. PT – Only just spotted that. That’s certainly not the case. I’ve heard 2 Labour MPs moaning about Pound.

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