Ealing Central & Acton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21728 (42.7%)
Labour: 22002 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 3106 (6.1%)
Green: 1841 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1926 (3.8%)
Independent: 125 (0.2%)
Others: 166 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 274 (0.5%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Ealing council area.

Main population centres: Acton, Ealing.

Profile: Covers Acton and the town centre of Ealing. This mosly a relatively affluent family area with strong transport links into central London, although there are more deprived areas towards the industrial and trading estates in the north-east of the seat and in the South Acton estate. The A40 Western Avenue route into central London cuts through the northern part of the seat, including the famous (on London travel updates) and intimidating Hanger Lane gyratory system. The seat also contains Thames Valley University and the Ealing studios.

Politics: The seat was created in 2010 to replace the old Ealing, Acton and Shepherds Bush seat. The previous seat had been Labour held, but the removal of Labour voting Shepherds Bush left the new seat a tight three-way marginal that was won by the Conservatives in 2010 and Labour in 2015.


Current MP
RUPA HUQ (Labour) Born 1972, Hammersmith. Educated at Notting Hill and Ealing High School and Cambridge University. Former university lecturer. Contested North West region 2004 European elections, Chesham and Amersham 2005. First elected as MP for Ealing Central & Acton in 2015. Sister of former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17944 (38%)
Lab: 14228 (30%)
LDem: 13041 (28%)
UKIP: 765 (2%)
Oth: 1222 (3%)
MAJ: 3716 (8%)
2005*
Con: 11059 (28%)
Lab: 16579 (42%)
LDem: 9986 (25%)
GRN: 1999 (5%)
MAJ: 5520 (14%)
2001
Con: 9355 (25%)
Lab: 20144 (54%)
LDem: 6171 (17%)
UKIP: 476 (1%)
Oth: 1055 (3%)
MAJ: 10789 (29%)
1997
Con: 12405 (26%)
Lab: 28052 (58%)
LDem: 5163 (11%)
Oth: 1807 (4%)
MAJ: 15647 (33%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Ealing, Acton & Shepherd's Bush

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANGIE BRAY (Conservative) Born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. LBC radio reporter, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham 1997. Member of the London Assembly for West Central 2000-2008. MP for Ealing Central & Acton 2010 to 2015.
RUPA HUQ (Labour) Born 1972, Hammersmith. Educated at Notting Hill and Ealing High School and Cambridge University. University lecturer. Contested North West region 2004 European elections, Chesham and Amersham 2005. Sister of former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq.
JON BALL (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby and Hatfield Polytechnic. Managing Director of a film & TV production and lighting business. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington 2005, Ealing Central and Acton 2010.
PETER FLORENCE (UKIP) Educated at St Dunstans College and Birmingham University. Entrepreneur and businessman.
TOM SHARMAN (Green) Educated at Sheffield University. Policy communications manager.
ANDRZEJ RYGIELSKI (Europeans)
SCOTT DORE (Workers Revolutionary)
TAMMY RENDLE (Above and Beyond)
JONATHAN NOTLEY (Independent)
Links
Comments - 538 Responses on “Ealing Central & Acton”
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  1. This will be a Labour gain. I wonder whether Blue Peter’s Koni Huq’s big sister, Rupa Huq, will be the candidate. It would be a wise choice.

  2. Why woould it be a wise choice?

  3. Dr Rupa Huq has been Deputy Mayor of Ealing and I think was a councillor in this seat – a lecturer at Kingston Uni too. She seems interesting and was shortlisted in Bradford West by-election last year too.

  4. can bob ever be quiet

  5. @Lexiecries – The answer is NO, Bob can not be quiet.

  6. oh no

  7. I think the result will be closer here at the next election but I doubt that it will be an easy Labour gain. There is a large Lib Dem vote which could collapse and go mostly to Labour. This in not what happened in the GLA elections in 2012 though when the Lib Dem vote did collapse but it did not help Labour much in the wards in this seat, where the Conservatives were still narrowly ahead. There will also be a small first time incumbent bonus for Angie Bray to take into account. If Labour get an overall majority in 2015 then they should win here but if it is another hung parliament then a Conservative hold is much more likely. The Lib Dems will not be in the running but Labour will have to put a lot of effort into wards where they normally do very little (e.g. Southfields, Ealing Common, Ealing Broadway) to squeeze their vote enough to overtake the Tories.

  8. If there is a hung parliament, Labour will still win here because what you forget is that the Labour lead in London is much greater than in the rest of the country. In Labour’s worst ever election results in terms of seats, Labour was the largest party in London, so even from a very low base this seat can we won. It is not a semi-marginal, it is a marginal seat. Also, Labour took Ealing and Hillingdon from the Tories which clearly shows that it is winning in areas like this.

  9. the Labour lead in London is much greater than in the rest of the country

    Is it? Greater than Scotland? Wales? The North?

  10. “Labour took Ealing and Hillingdon from the Tories which clearly shows that it is winning in areas like this.”

    It doesn’t ‘clearly show’ anything of the sort. That constiteuncy includes six parliamentary constituencies including the safe Labour seats of Ealing North, Ealing Southall and Hayes & Harlington. It would only show Labour were winning in areas like this if Labour had actually won a plurality of votes within this constituency, though even that would not be conclusive as it is common for opposition parties to win pluralities in local elections in constituencies which they then fail to win at the following general election.
    Do you have the 2012 voting figures specifically for this constituency to hand? If you do you would I’m sure be able to illustrate your point more clearly

  11. I don’t but you need to remember that this was a gain and it also includes safe Tory seats like Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner and Ealing Central and Acton. For Labour to have gained Ealing and Hillingdon, a strong Tory Assembly seat until 2012, Labour would have had to have won in Ealing Central and Acton.

  12. There seems to be a slight contradiction contradiction contained in the above.
    Anyway, Labour would not have to have won Ealing Central & Acton to win Ealing & Hillingdon.
    More to the point, they didn’t.

  13. Excluding postal votes (which are counted at borough level)

    Mayor: Boris 13,315 (49.45%) Ken 8,788 (32.63%)
    List: Con 9,763 (36.1%) Lab 9,431 (34.9) Green 3,019 (11.1%) LD 2,303 (8.5)
    Constituency: Barnes (Con) 10,608 votes (39.4%) Sahota (Lab) 9,025 (33.5%)

  14. What Bob may not have realised is that a detailed breakdown of votes cast in the 2012 London Mayor and GLA elections, by ward, was published. Adding up the votes cast for the GLA candidates in the 8 wards that make up this constituency you get 9025 for Labour and 10608 for the Conservatives. Although Labour very narrowly won in Ealing and Hillingdon they were actually well behind in this constituency. I believe the detailed figures are still available on the GLA website if Bob wants to have a look at them himself. They showed that Labour also did badly in some of their other target seats in London and actually lost Westminster North to the Conservatives.

  15. Thing is, I don’t necessarily think we can take GLA and local results as it is. Although I am a Labour supporter, I also wanted the Greens to do well too so voted for them in the List section – won’t do that in a GE. Moreover, last weeks local elections and GLA elections last year had paltry turnouts and in a GE – there would be more people involved. From personal experience, ethnic minorities (a significant proportion in this seat) are less likely to vote overall and more so in local elections as opposed to GE. Taking all that into consideration, as well as the swing to Lib Dems in seats like this in 2005 following the Iraq War, I cannot help but feel that Labour will ultimately take a good proportion of those voters back and win with a decent majority too. Of course, bing complacent about it would be stupid.

    @Ealing Bloke – with Westminster North, the Bedroom Tax and cap in Housing Benefit will mean families who may have lived in social housing or renting in say Maida Vale in the constituency for ages, may have to move as now it won’t be as affordable. I use Maida Vale as I read a stat that a large proportion of people receiving housing benefit in tht ward, may have to move. Obviously in doing so, more affluent people may replace them and eroding the Labour vote. Having said that, Karen Buck is meant to be a first rate constituency MP and now as EdMilliband’s PPS, you would assume a lot of effort would be pumped there to prevent her losing her seat. When she was facing Joanne Cash in 2010, I think it was in this forum, someone mentioned how some Tories were canvassing constituents, and they conceded that Karen was a good MP and to vote Tory for the Council instead.

  16. “Thing is, I don’t necessarily think we can take GLA and local results as it is”

    This is quite true. GLA election results in particular are generally a pretty poor guide to future general election performances. However if one is going to invoke them, it probably best at least to know what the results were!

  17. The Lib Dems have selected Jon Ball, an Ealing councillor, as their PPC.

  18. He contested the seat in 2010 and did rather better than most people were expecting IIRC:

    http://www.ealingtoday.co.uk/default.asp?section=info&link=http://nnet-server.com/server/common/eaparliamentaryseat001.htm

  19. many people predicted an LD gain here though. Not many expected them to be 3rd, not even me.

  20. Another AWS in London!

  21. Looking at the total voters of the three Ealing constituenicies:

    1992
    Acton 44624
    North 50088
    Southall 49485

    2010
    Acton 47200
    North 47678
    Southall 42756

    Has this constituency increased in size or did turnouts vary significantly?

  22. Compared with 1992 this seat has gained the Walpole ward from Ealing Southall

  23. “Compared with 1992 this seat has gained the Walpole ward from Ealing Southall”

    Walpole is a Conservative ward, though they only won with about 37% of the vote against a divided opposition.

    Overall therefore these boundaries are a bit better for the Tories than 1992.

    Local elections indicate that the Lib Dems are strongest in Southfield, which suggests that they will have taken a lot of Tory votes as well as Labour ones.

    For this reason I don’t think Angie Bray will lose her seat in 2015 even if the Lib Dem vote collapses.

  24. Walpole gave the Tories a similar % lead to the constituency as a whole so the effect is fairly neutral now. Back in 1992 though the addition of this ward would have weakened the Conservatives as it was much more of a Labour ward then. They held the ward continuously from 1986 to 2006, although they lost 1 seat in 1990 they still topped the poll in the ward then (in the person of HIlary Benn) in what was a fairly disastrous set of results in Ealing.. I think the Tories may have narrowly carried the ward at the 1992 general election only because of Sid Bidwell siphoning off some of the Labour vote and I actually have Labour carrying it in 1983

  25. GLA results suggest a likely Con hold here in 2015

    GLA list votes 2012
    Ealing Central & Acton
    (not including postal votes)

    Con 36.1%
    Lab 34.9%
    Grn 11.2%
    LD 8.5%
    UKIP 3.5%
    BNP 1.4%

    Con maj 1.2%

  26. On another place Pete Whitehead estimated the results by parliamentary constituency allocating postal votes.

    Using the list figures, the Labour performance in the marginals wasn’t particularly breathtaking..

    Labour leads

    Hammersmith 6%
    Brentford & Isleworth 5.2
    Enfield North 5.2
    Eltham 4.5
    Hampstead & Kilburn 3.3
    Harrow East 2.1
    Tooting 1.9
    Hendon 0.9
    Ilford North 0.6

    Tory leads

    Battarsea 17.9
    Finchley 10.2
    Enfield Southgate 7.7
    Ealing Central 4.1
    Croydon Central 2
    Westminister North 1.1

  27. “Back in 1992 though the addition of this ward would have weakened the Conservatives as it was much more of a Labour ward then”

    Why has it trended Conservative when most of Ealing has trended Labour?

  28. I’d guess its the nature of the housing stock which is older than much of the borough – more Edwardian villa style which may have become a little seedy by the 1970s and 80s but which was ripe for gentrification and its very well located toward the centre of Ealing itself. The areas of Ealing which have trended strongly to Labour consist mostly of inter-war semis and terraces

  29. “The areas of Ealing which have trended strongly to Labour consist mostly of inter-war semis and terraces”

    Presumably areas like Greenford, Perivale and Northolt, all predominantly in Ealing North.

    Southall and to a lesser extent Acton have been strong for Labour for decades, though when Acton was mostly a WWC area it was clearly willing to support Thatcher over the loony left.

    I had the impression central Ealing around the Broadway etc had got better for the Tories and was now the centre of Tory strength in the borough and this constituency. But the map we were discussing the other day didn’t seem to indicate that.

  30. I do wonder if the conservatives will do considerably better in London in 2015 with the economy doing so well there (excluding Enfield North, Illford North sort of seats).

  31. Lets have a discussion of how different parts of London are undergoing gentrification or socioeconomic degredation.

    Its been a while since we’ve talked about these issues 😉

  32. “I do wonder if the conservatives will do considerably better in London in 2015 with the economy doing so well there”

    Is the economy really doing so well in London?

    The discription ‘boom’ has become as much misused in economic terms as the description ‘world class’ has become when discussing English footballers.

    Not only do I suspect that the London economy is not doing as well as excitable or vested interested people describe but I also suspect that much of any economic gains are being dominated by the rich.

    Even in London its the lower middle and skilled working classes who need to benefit economically for there to be a politcal effect.

    While rising London property prices also make it harder for younger voters to buy a home themselves.

  33. “I had the impression central Ealing around the Broadway etc had got better for the Tories and was now the centre of Tory strength in the borough and this constituency. But the map we were discussing the other day didn’t seem to indicate that.”

    This is why I was rather dubious about elements of that map

  34. Economic performance is virtually irrelevant in London seats because there are few swing voters here.

    There are solid blocks of Labour and Tory voters and little in between. Election results will be determined by turnout and the extent of demographic change since 2010.

  35. But insofar as turnout is dependent to some extent on the enthusiasm of the voting bases, and that enthusiasm is dependent on economic performance (which I suspect it is) then economic performance does matter.

  36. I was sceptical about the map too because I thought this area of Ealing was maintaining its old title of “Queen of the Suburbs”. The area round the North Circular (ward?) seems fairly prosperous too (though the road’s a pain).

  37. How many areas of Greater London could be described as being mainly inhabited by the white British lower middle-classes? An ever-decreasing number probably, and most of those are on the edge of the metropolis such as the Cray Valley.

  38. H. Hemmelig

    You don’t think “Boris voters” could be convinced to vote tory if the recovery is strong by 2015?

  39. SJBME19 – the areas of Ealing around the N Circular Road are Hanger Hill ward & Ealing Common ward, predominantly.

  40. There are some swing voters in London – although not as many as in the past.

    Boris voters are people for the Tories to target aswell.

  41. Who are the ‘Boris’ voters though?

    Aren’t they Jewish and gay voters who were offended by KenL’s anti-semitism and homophobia?

    Maybe a few ethnic Turks or Sikhs because of Boris’s family background.

    And middle class liberals who were disgusted with KenL?

    So how many ‘Boris voters’ were anything more than anti-KenL voters?

    And whatever people think about EdM, he’s not a KenL.

  42. Rupa Huq has put her name forward for the Labour nomination in Ealing Central & Acton:

    http://rupa4ealingactonlabour.wordpress.com/

  43. Rupa Huq talking about her new book about suburbia “On The Edge”:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWjeRUDNl2s&amp

  44. Ken homophobic? That’s a new one on me. He spent the 80s being pilloried for supporting gay rights

  45. “You don’t think “Boris voters” could be convinced to vote tory if the recovery is strong by 2015?”

    You are forgetting that Boris v Ken was a 2 horse race, even in the first round.

    Perhaps more important than the demographic groups Richard mentioned, the vast swathe of Lib Dem voters in SW London voted en-masse for Boris; in 2015 the odds are that the Lib Dems will hold most and maybe all of their seats there.

    The absolute best I can foresee for the Tories in London in 2015 would be the same number of seats as 2010 – losing Enfield North and gaining, say, Sutton & Cheam. But my best guess is that they will lose 2-3 seats net and won’t gain anything from Labour.

  46. I agree with that.

    The London Conservatives seem unwilling to accept that they are on a downward escalator.

    Instead they prefer to put their faith in gentrification or ‘Boris voters’ or some improvement in the economy or gay voters now having ‘permission’ to vote Conservative or some other gimmick.

  47. I very much agree with H Hemmelig and Richard.

  48. It’s not the most opportune of times for Labour people to be condemning others for lying and cheating…..

    Haven’t you heard of Damien McBride’s book?

  49. Looking at how the land lies in this seat, taking into account the GLA and Mayoral elections (insomuch as they are a guide, for all the reasons laid out above), this will not be an easy Labour gain. Given the evidence of the polls, I surmise that Labour has most to gain from a fall in the LD vote, which is likely to be quite steep, and I would guess that the Green vote would not be as high as in the GLA list elections, with Labour having most to gain from this.
    If the Coservatives hold their share of the vote at 38%, it’ll be tough for Labour, if they increase it, then it is probably beyond Labour on this occasion.
    I would still lean towards a Labour gain because the Lib Dems, whose vote in 2010 came mostly from unhappy Labour voters, have fallen so disastrously.
    The London borough elections next year will give us a better picture.

  50. @BigD, dream on. She strikes me as a party wonk. That is neither a public sector worker nor a banker (thanks for assuming I’d want finance types in Parliament). I don’t consider a writer, academic or think-tank researcher in most cases to be greatly suited to understanding how ordinary people think. Ditto for city bankers.

    This is in contrast to Labour’s candidate in e.g. Carlisle who used to be a retail worker.

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