Ealing Central & Acton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21728 (42.7%)
Labour: 22002 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 3106 (6.1%)
Green: 1841 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1926 (3.8%)
Independent: 125 (0.2%)
Others: 166 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 274 (0.5%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Ealing council area.

Main population centres: Acton, Ealing.

Profile: Covers Acton and the town centre of Ealing. This mosly a relatively affluent family area with strong transport links into central London, although there are more deprived areas towards the industrial and trading estates in the north-east of the seat and in the South Acton estate. The A40 Western Avenue route into central London cuts through the northern part of the seat, including the famous (on London travel updates) and intimidating Hanger Lane gyratory system. The seat also contains Thames Valley University and the Ealing studios.

Politics: The seat was created in 2010 to replace the old Ealing, Acton and Shepherds Bush seat. The previous seat had been Labour held, but the removal of Labour voting Shepherds Bush left the new seat a tight three-way marginal that was won by the Conservatives in 2010 and Labour in 2015.


Current MP
RUPA HUQ (Labour) Born 1972, Hammersmith. Educated at Notting Hill and Ealing High School and Cambridge University. Former university lecturer. Contested North West region 2004 European elections, Chesham and Amersham 2005. First elected as MP for Ealing Central & Acton in 2015. Sister of former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17944 (38%)
Lab: 14228 (30%)
LDem: 13041 (28%)
UKIP: 765 (2%)
Oth: 1222 (3%)
MAJ: 3716 (8%)
2005*
Con: 11059 (28%)
Lab: 16579 (42%)
LDem: 9986 (25%)
GRN: 1999 (5%)
MAJ: 5520 (14%)
2001
Con: 9355 (25%)
Lab: 20144 (54%)
LDem: 6171 (17%)
UKIP: 476 (1%)
Oth: 1055 (3%)
MAJ: 10789 (29%)
1997
Con: 12405 (26%)
Lab: 28052 (58%)
LDem: 5163 (11%)
Oth: 1807 (4%)
MAJ: 15647 (33%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Ealing, Acton & Shepherd's Bush

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANGIE BRAY (Conservative) Born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. LBC radio reporter, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham 1997. Member of the London Assembly for West Central 2000-2008. MP for Ealing Central & Acton 2010 to 2015.
RUPA HUQ (Labour) Born 1972, Hammersmith. Educated at Notting Hill and Ealing High School and Cambridge University. University lecturer. Contested North West region 2004 European elections, Chesham and Amersham 2005. Sister of former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq.
JON BALL (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby and Hatfield Polytechnic. Managing Director of a film & TV production and lighting business. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington 2005, Ealing Central and Acton 2010.
PETER FLORENCE (UKIP) Educated at St Dunstans College and Birmingham University. Entrepreneur and businessman.
TOM SHARMAN (Green) Educated at Sheffield University. Policy communications manager.
ANDRZEJ RYGIELSKI (Europeans)
SCOTT DORE (Workers Revolutionary)
TAMMY RENDLE (Above and Beyond)
JONATHAN NOTLEY (Independent)
Links
Comments - 534 Responses on “Ealing Central & Acton”
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  1. Yep they’ve announced it on Twitter, apparently its something of a carrot to try and temp Labour into something more formal and national re electoral pacts.

  2. Bless them.

  3. So I wonder if LAB will stand in Brighton Pavilion…… :))

  4. I struggle to see what this pact could possibly involve beyond the Greens standing aside in marginal Con/Lab (and possibly Con/LD) constituencies. Which is what the Greens are doing already.

  5. Still moderately that this save HUQ. I would rate CON % probability at this time – 80%

  6. Cllr Joy Morrissey (Ealing Hanger Hill Ward) has been selected as Conservative candidate. She was also a 2016 Conservative Londonwide Assembly list candidate.

    She works as Events and Network Manager at the Centre for Social Justice.

    http://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/about/staff/joy-morrissey

  7. I think this seat will probably go Con.
    Until recently I had thought it may be one of those London seats that once it’s lost, Labour would be very hard to shift.

  8. What an excellent result Rupa Huq had here.

  9. I take most of the credit for it. lol
    It was obvious even at the beginning of the campaign, before the polls turned, that Rupa Huq would have a strong chance of holding out here. She has acquired a strong personal vote even in only 2 years and many voters who we had down as not Labour in 2015 were expressing support for her on the doorstep. Then the polls turned, and what might have been a narrow hold turned out into an overwhelming one.
    It will be interesting now to see how the wards in this seat vote in the 2018 local elections. The Tories will now be pretty concerned about both Ealing Common & Ealing Broadway (and so of course will the LD incumbent in the former, Jon Ball). Hanger Hill is probably just a bridge too far but it does have some significant Labour patches especially in the NW10 section of the ward. Southfield will be very interesting – the Tories may fancy gaining it now on a split anti-Tory vote. Having said that, they fancy it at every election and still haven’t won it in years.

  10. Thanks for that info Barnaby. Good to hear the ground game from someone involved ha ha!

  11. Number of candidates in this seat went from 9 in 2015 to just 3 in 2017. Huq should be grateful to the Workers Revolutionary Party and the Greens!

  12. Yep and she admitted as much in her acceptance speech at the count- which was unfortunately terribly dogged by microphone trouble. Tut tut London Borough of Ealing council services…

  13. I actually think Tories would probably not have taken this even if they had maintained a 20% national poll lead.

    Strong Remain and London seat.

    Conversely would have taken some impressive seats in the North on eg 15% swings.

  14. Out of interest, did Angie Bray seek nomination for this seat or did she not figure this time at all? Mary Macleod had another go at neighbouring Brentford and Isleworth.

  15. Bray didn’t apply as I understand it. I know that I’m biased but my impression has always been that while Mary Macleod was quite popular personally Bray never really was. She is also significantly older than Macleod – she was well over 60 when she was defeated in 2015.
    I agree with BT Says in this instance. The only evidence we ever had that the Tories would gain this seat were the national polls – on the ground there was never a time when the Tories appeared to be gaining on us even to the limited extent needed & I was saying “Rupa you can do this!” very shortly after the campaign started. There was more worry about Brentford & Isleworth but of course that proved unfounded in the end. Indeed, I knocked up on polling day in both constituencies in 2015, and while there were clearly late defections from Labour to Tory in B&I – especially among aspirational Hindu & Sikh voters – our vote held completely solid in EC&A and the final result was very little different from what we had expected through the campaign. (again referring to 2015, not 2017.) At the beginning of the 2017 campaign, there were some signs that this trend was continuing, at least in the Hounslow Central ward in B&I, but in the end it seems that many of these voters returned to Labour directly from the Tories. Perhaps the different nuances are partly because while in B&I many non-white voters are Hindus & Sikhs in pleasant semis, in EC&A such voters are much rarer.

  16. I agree that this was never a likely Con gain. What is remarkable is that the Conservatives clearly didn’t work that out: May was sent there and from what I could judge from social media considerable resource was put in. There were many other seats which just didn’t have the demographics to be likely Con gains at this election that also seemed to be well resourced – as well as other London seats places like Slough, Nottingham South and Tynemouth, all of which May visited at key stages of the campaign and in none of which they came close. CCHQ needs some better psephologists.

  17. Those 3 seats were all extremely unlikely to be Conservative gains. Indeed the Tories could secure a majority close to landslide proportions and fail to pick any of those up. They were just too complacent in the face of the national polls. Slough in particular just doesn’t have the sort of voters who would be likely to vote Conservative though Nottingham S is clearly not a potential Tory growth area either.

  18. I know a few Labour campaigners in Nottingham that were worried about Nottingham South through. Especially because of the massive leave vote in the Clifton wards.

  19. To an extent through sending Tory resources to those seats might have saved a couple where had Labour campaigned more a Labour gain could have occurred. Putney the nearest to this seat and Broxtowe for the Nottingham South.

  20. Tynemouth was slightly more logical as it was in a region where they (justifiably) were expected to poll above average (as they in fact did, though Labour increased as much even in the N-E in the end).

    Nottingham N (I thought it was there May visited) also had a little logic as it was more for Leave than the other Nottingham seats IIRC – though it was rather a long shot even then, especially given that it was a City seat (though that’s a point easier made in hindsight, not all cities were expected to swing better for Labour outside of London, early on in the campaign).

    But Leeds N-E and some of the other places looked like ‘below average’ swing seats not the ‘UNS’ or better that Cons would have needed even on a 20% lead.

  21. With hindsight, it should be clear that Cons were never 20% ahead in reality. Given that the final polls averaged around an 8% lead, and some pollsters still had the Tories 10 or 12% ahead, I would suggest that the true position in the early stages of the campaign was around a 12-15 point lead (which fell to 3 points on the day) compared to the polls showing 17-20 point polling lead which fell to 8 points on the eve of the election.

  22. Survation had Labour 29 Tories 40 in the first poll after the election was called

  23. “Survation had Labour 29 Tories 40 in the first poll after the election was called”

    Yes, and they had a 1% Tory lead on the eve of the election.

    As with most other pollsters their polls showed a narrowing of the Tories lead by 10 points over the campaign.

  24. I got this one wrong to say the least.
    Although suspected it would be Labour hold once the Tory manifesto was published.
    Congratulations to Rupa Huq.

  25. Incidentally, has anyone got any figures by Region.
    I still haven’t located.

  26. This link is good, JJB. The swing to lab in London looks like 6% from their figures.

    http://geo.digiminster.com/

  27. I’d be surprised if it was that low.
    I guess the Tories did push up their share in some on the eastern and south eastern fringe.
    Thanks

  28. Incidentally, if my figure of a 5% swing (or 10% narrowing) between Lab and Con is right, then suggest that the Tories might have been on course for 50 or so more seats and a majority of 90-100 at the start of the campaign.

    http://geo.digiminster.com/election/2017-06-08/Statistics/Majority

  29. @James E

    I think that’s probably right. The extra 50 seats would have included some that required very big swings like Ashfield, Stoke North, Rother Valley and Bassetlaw, but they’d still have fallen well short in the London marginals and others that had significant swings to Labour.

  30. Thanks, Jack.

    For me the most surprising of the Labour seats which (by my reckoning) would have been held regardless of the 10% campaign movement was Halifax (11% maj).

    Labour would probably also have gained Plymouth S&D, and Brighton Kemptown, and possibly Croydon Central too.

  31. BT Says – pretty sure that May visited Nottingham S, though I could be wrong. Nottingham N has been generally Labour’s safest seat in Notts for some years and it’s been a long time since it’s had a single Tory councillor. Nottingham S at least has one or 2 wards where the Tories are still competitive.

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