Dundee East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7206 (15%)
Labour: 9603 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 1387 (2.9%)
SNP: 28765 (59.7%)
Green: 895 (1.9%)
TUSC: 104 (0.2%)
Others: 225 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 19162 (39.8%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, North East. Part of Dundee and Angus council areas.

Main population centres: Dundee, Monifieth, Carnoustie.

Profile: The city of Dundee is a major retail, administrative and employment centre for north-east Scotland, situated on the north bank of the Firth of Tay. Traditionally the local economy was described as being based on "Jute, Jam and Journalism" - the Jute has long since gone, jam was never really much of an employer anyway, but the journalism remains in the form of D. C. Thomson & Co, the publisher of the regional Scottish newspaper titles, the Beano and the Dandy. Other important local employers include NCR, whose main base for their cash machine and cash registers business is based in Dundee. Until 2005 the seat only consisted of Eastern Dundee, but the boundaries were then changed to include the rural hinterland, the dormitory town of Monifieth and Carnoustie, best known for its associations with golf.

Politics: Dundee East has long been a prime battleground between the SNP and Labour. As far back as the 1973 by-election that followed the appointment of George Thomson as one of Britain`s first European Commissioners the SNP put up a serious challenge here, narrowingly failing to take the seat despite achieving a huge swing. They won the seat in 1974 and their MP here, Gordon Wilson, was leader of the party from 1979 until 1990 (despite losing his seat to Labour in 1987). The SNP regained the seat on an extremely narrow majority in 2005 before securing a far larger majority in the 2015 landslide.


Current MP
STEWART HOSIE (Scottish National Party) Born 1963, Dundee. Educated at Carnoustie High School. Former IT businessman and National Secretary of the SNP. Contested Kirkcaldy 1992, 1997, Dundee East 2001. First elected as MP for Dundee East in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6177 (15%)
Lab: 13529 (33%)
LDem: 4285 (11%)
SNP: 15350 (38%)
Oth: 1227 (3%)
MAJ: 1821 (4%)
2005
Con: 5061 (13%)
Lab: 14325 (36%)
LDem: 4498 (11%)
SNP: 14708 (37%)
Oth: 948 (2%)
MAJ: 383 (1%)
2001*
Con: 3900 (12%)
Lab: 14635 (45%)
LDem: 2784 (9%)
SNP: 10160 (31%)
Oth: 879 (3%)
MAJ: 4475 (14%)
1997
Con: 6397 (16%)
Lab: 20718 (51%)
LDem: 1677 (4%)
SNP: 10757 (27%)
Oth: 979 (2%)
MAJ: 9961 (25%)

2015 Candidates
BILL BOWMAN (Conservative) Educated at George Watsons College and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant.
LESLEY BRENNAN (Labour) Educated at University of Abertay. Economist. Dundee councillor since 2012.
CRAIG DUNCAN (Liberal Democrat) Born Dundee. Educated at Carnoustie High School and Heriot-Watt University. Administrator.
HELEN GRAYSHAN (Green) Born 1975. Educated at Newcastle University. Lead officer of a renewable energy charity.
STEWART HOSIE (SNP) See above.
LESLEY PARKER HAMILTON (CISTA)
CARLO MORELLI (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 130 Responses on “Dundee East”
  1. “Is Dundee, demographically speaking, the type of place which would vote Yes to independence? With less than 100 days to go, the media has said that the biggest challenge for the pro-independence camp has been attracting women voters who are more like to be pro-union/vote No, compared to men. For the No camp, it’s the risk of losing Labour voters.”

    Even more than the gender divide, there is a class divide in the polls, with working class people far more supportive of independence and the middle class fiercely opposed.

    Given this, I’d be amazed if a working class city like Dundee doesn’t give one of the higher votes for independence.

  2. I think this seat could produce one of the Lib Dems’ worst in Scotland in 2015, and that really is saying something.

  3. Just as a fun thought experiment, which do we think will be the LDs’ worst seats next year in terms of vote share and change in vote share?

  4. If Scotland were to vote Yes a post 2015 vote surely the new ‘United Kingdom of Southern Britain & Northern Ireland’ would be more likely to vote to leave Europe….because the loss of Scotland would remove much of the more Pro-European vote.

  5. I think personally that some of the Lib Dems’ worst results could come in seats like Copeland, Workington, Ynys Mon, Romford and various other safe Labour seats in Scotland and Wales- I think there’s going to be loads where they will end up losing their deposit.

  6. I was working on a prediction of how many LD lost deposits there are likely to be based on previous vote share and council results/national polling since, but exam revision took over priorities. Should start working on that again.

  7. Biggest drops in LD vote share seem likely to be in Labour-facing urban seats – Bradford East, Withington, Brent Central, Burnley.

  8. Hayes & Harlington could be an awful result for them too. They were below 10% in 2010 as it is.

  9. Broughty Ferry will contain most of the Conservative vote in this constituency. It is much more Tory than the Angus wards and the Conservative vote is around 2% in the other Dundee wards.

  10. I thought Monifieth was good for them too?

  11. Use to be but they are level pegging with Labour in the Angus wards (that also include Carnoustie) whereas in Broughty Ferry the Tories are clearly well ahead of Labour.

  12. Stewart Hosie is one of two candidates for Deputy Leader for the SNP. (The other is Keith Brown MSP who represents Clackmannan at Holyrood). I think this seat is pretty safe for the SNP now – particularly given the Yes vote Dundee delivered in the referendum.

  13. prediction for 2015-

    SNP- 42%
    Lab- 33%
    Con- 14%
    Lib- 5%
    Green- 4%
    UKIP- 3%

  14. Can’t see any surprises here. With Hosie as deputy leader, this is a strong safe seat for the SNP.

    Prediction

    SNP – 59%
    LAB – 17%
    CON – 13%
    LD – 0.4%
    UKIP – 4%
    GRE – 3%
    OTH – 1%

  15. Stewart Hosie could have a very strong result here. My prediction is-
    SNP- 55%
    Lab- 22.3%
    Tory- 14%
    UKIP- 6%
    Green- 2.4%
    Lib Dem- 0.3%

  16. SNP 38
    Lab 33
    Con 19
    UKIP 5
    LD 4
    G 3

  17. It seems odd to suggest that there will be no swing to the SNP when they have a decent MP in place, most of the seat is in the most pro-independence local authority in the country, and the SNP have made up a huge amount of ground on Labour since 2010. Also, can’t see the Tories getting as high as 19%.

  18. True….I saw East Dundee moving to the SNP considerably in accordance with Yes while I saw the South Angus wards and Broughty Ferry becoming more Unionist as per September.

    I think the SNP will gain Dundee West but Dundee East will remain a marginal seat due to South Angus and Broughty Ferry being more stubbornly unionist.

  19. The Conservatives took 18% here in 1992. This was concentrated in Broughty Ferry and given the 2005 boundary changes removed solidly Lab / SNP Central Dundee and added the much more Conservative South Angus area. The Conservative vote could have been as high as 25% in 1992 so 19% is not inconceivable in 2015.

  20. Adding in the wards from Angus helps the SNP more than Labour. If you think that Dundee City will be an excellent area for the SNP in 2015, which seems likely, then a good chunk of that, plus South Angus, which is SNP/Tory predominantly, should put the SNP a long way ahead of Labour.

  21. Indeed, If, as most people are suggesting, Dundee West is going to see a big swing to the SNP, I would suggest there isn’t a large enough difference in demographics to suggest a significantly different voting pattern in Dundee East.

    It’s true that Broughty Ferry in particular is a good area for the Tories, but that’s nothing new, and the reasons why unionists would move from Labour to Tories are unclear.

    If the predictions for Dundee West are replicated here, we could see a 10%+ swing from Labour to SNP, plus most of the Liberal Democrat vote going SNP, which should take Stewart Hosie past 50%.

  22. Ashcroft predicts that the SNP could take Dundee West with a majority of over 12000 if the 2010 turnout remains consistent.

    Its possible that the SNP could take West by a larger margin than retaining East as East will have far more No Voters in Broughty Ferry and South Angus.

    A reasonable scenario could be the SNP gaining West by 8000 to 9000 and holding East by 5000 to 7000.

  23. This is one of the “Labour target” constituencies to which Tony Blair has donated £1,000 each (£106,000 in total). Has nobody told him about the polling in Scotland?

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/snp-accuses-labour-candidates-of-taking-tony-blairs-bad-money.120043286

  24. in the general scheme of things i guess he isn’t going to miss that particular grand that much.

  25. Obviously not, but the choice of where to invest the money could bear a little scrutiny. Particularly when incumbent Labour MPs in Scotland are squabbling over where the party should concentrate its resources.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-in-civil-war-over-strategy-1-3710887

  26. There is a scenario that the Tories could become the main opposition party in Scotland in seats even if Labour poll far more votes…

    SNP 53
    Con 3 (Berwickshire, Dumfries & G, Dumfriesshire)
    Lab 2 (East Renfrewshire, Glasgow NE)
    LD 1 (Orkney & S)

    How many pandas are there in Scotland?

  27. Well this is interesting… the Labour candidate for Dundee East has turned down the £1,000 offered by Tony Blair.

    https://twitter.com/LesleyEastend/status/574501626863599616

  28. Seems to have won Lesley Brennan some “respect” and “good on you” type messages from SNP supporters. Tony Blair’s name might not be widely liked, but for some reason the feeling is even more strident north of the border.

  29. There are probably many people in Scotland (and many parts of England as well) who now have Tony Blair’s photo next to Margaret Thatcher’s photo on a dart board.

    In response to Daleks post, I now think it’s almost impossible to make accurate predictions for Scottish seats. The established order of things may changes so much we just don’t know what the final result will be.

    My latest Scottish seats prediction is as follows:

    SNP: 31
    Labour: 24
    Lib Dems: 3
    Conservatives: 1

    But that’s only essentially a lot of educated guess work based on Ashcroft polls and what I’ve heard people mentioning on various constituency threads.

  30. @Neil

    Iraq was more unpopular in Scotland than the rest of the UK. Then add a bit of annoyance that you finally get a Labour PM after 18 years of Tories and he turns out to be (at best) a centrist.

    Somewhat predictably, the SNP are turning this news into an attack line against the other four Labour constituency parties in Scotland who have been offered money by Blair.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/08/tony-blair-lesley-brennan_n_6825914.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

  31. Adam @ I was not saying that that was the likely outcome (or likely at all), just that it as possible for the Scottish Tories to get around 14% and win 3 seats and Scottish Labour to poll around 28% and win 2 seats.

  32. No matter how bad the result is for Scottish Labour, I don’t in anyway think they’ll be reduced to third party status.

  33. [email protected] Are you assuming that it will be Carmichael, Kennedy and Moore that will survive?

    The Ashcroft poll clearly shows Smith defeated and if he is gone new candidates will not hold Gordon or North East Fife.

    I think the Liberals will come third in Berwickshire.

  34. This is officially one of Labour’s 106 targets.

  35. There were 5 target seats for Labour in Scotland of the 106 –

    Argyll & Bute
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale
    Dundee East
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh West

    Before September 2014, the Glasgow and Edinburgh suburb were realistic Labour gains but the other 3 were always long shots.

    I even read about the Western Isles Labour Party arguing that they had been excluded as a target seat.

  36. Western Isles is actually target number 99 for Labour on the basis of marginality.

  37. Correct….that why the CLP were surprised it was not one of the 106 target seats.

  38. Local paper now says that the Labour candidate can’t reject the Blair donation, even if she wants to (?). Sounds like the money is being donated and spent at a national (GB) level, rather than being donated and spent at the local level. But maybe I’m reading it wrong.

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/dundee-labour-candidate-lesley-brennan-can-t-turn-down-tony-blair-general-election-donation-1.848305

  39. SNP Majority 20% over Lab

  40. Two new Scottish polls to be published today show a huge shift back to Labour. One places the SNP only 2% ahead while the other has a Labour lead of 3%.

  41. it is april 1 – are you being serious peter?

  42. Yep…..April Fool 🙂

  43. I would imagine house will be looking at winning at least 40%-50% of the share of the vote.

  44. Hosie will be aiming for 55%+ here. He could even hit 60%.

  45. SNP Hold

  46. Safest seat in Scotland with an SNP majority which equates to 40% of the vote.

  47. I’m still struggling to comprehend the scale of Labours defeat but Labour now need the exactly the same swing to win here as to gain Chelsea.

  48. The situation in Scotland is very similar to the map of Ireland in 1910 with the Irish Nationalists winning every seat outside what is now Northern Ireland other than the Trinity College University seats.

    It has to be seen if the SNP can hold places like East Renfrewshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North & Leith and Paisley & Renfrewshire South in 2020 but I really don’t see them losing Falkirk, Cumbernauld or Dundee West.

  49. Off-topic slightly but interesting: in the 1918 Sinn Fein wipe-out election the Unionists did win one non-University seat in the Republic of Ireland: Dublin Rathmines.

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