West Dunbartonshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3597 (7%)
Labour: 16027 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 816 (1.6%)
SNP: 30198 (59%)
Independent: 503 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14171 (27.7%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARTIN DOCHERTY (SNP) Born 1971. Educated at Essex University. Former policy advisor. Former Clydebank councillor, Glasgow councillor since 2012. First elected as MP for Dunbartonshire West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3242 (8%)
Lab: 25905 (61%)
LDem: 3434 (8%)
SNP: 8497 (20%)
Oth: 1188 (3%)
MAJ: 17408 (41%)
2005
Con: 2679 (6%)
Lab: 21600 (52%)
LDem: 5999 (14%)
SNP: 9047 (22%)
Oth: 2264 (5%)
MAJ: 12553 (30%)
2001*
Con: 3514 (11%)
Lab: 17249 (53%)
LDem: 3909 (12%)
SNP: 6525 (20%)
Oth: 1294 (4%)
MAJ: 10724 (33%)
1997
Con: 4885 (12%)
Lab: 21583 (55%)
LDem: 4086 (10%)
SNP: 8263 (21%)
Oth: 269 (1%)
MAJ: 13320 (34%)

2015 Candidates
MAURICE CORRY (Conservative)
GEMMA DOYLE (Labour) Born 1981, Alexandria. Educated at Our Lady and St Patricks High School and Glasgow University. Conference organiser and political officer for the Labour party. MP for West Dunbatonshire 2010 to 2015.
AILEEN MORTON (Liberal Democrat)
MARTIN DOCHERTY (SNP) Born 1971. Educated at Essex University. Policy advisor. Former Clydebank councillor, Glasgow councillor since 2012.
CLAIRE MUIR (Independent)
Links
Comments - 48 Responses on “Dunbartonshire West”
  1. I guess the only prediction to make here is whether the Tories and LD’s will hold onto their deposit. 🙂

  2. Given the result for the referendum here, I wonder now if the SNP will put a serious effort into this seat?

  3. I believe so, Pump Action, given that Dunbartonshire West produced a ‘Yes’ vote amongst its local residents, but the 41% majority which Labour have may be too much for the SNP to climb, even when polls regularly put the SNP clearly ahead of Labour in Scotland and on course to gain at least half the Westminster constituencies of Scotland next year.

  4. Centered on Red Clydesdale and with a big union membership, as well as being the only council in the UK with a Socialist councillor, one would expect the Scottish Labour leadership to have a huge bearing on the vote in this constituency in particular.

    I’m unaware of Gemma Doyle being a particularly popular MP, so if Jim Murphy wins the local leadership, and given the high Yes vote, it could be close here.

  5. I think there could be a huge swing here. BUT. I do wonder whether the SNP could have a big night of frustration. The seats with the biggest Yes votes also tend to be the seats with the biggest Labour majorities. So you may see the biggest swings to the SNP being in seats which they (just) fail to convert with smaller swings in more marginal seats which they also (just) fail to convert. So a big overall swing but comparatively few gains.

  6. I could see a huge swing to from Lab to SNP here coming close to 20% but I could see the SNP not quite making it. I think there could be huge swings in ultra safe Labour seats (40% Lab maj) but more modest swings in semi marginal / semi safe Labour seats (ie 20% Lab may over SNP).

  7. Something like this perhaps?
    Lab- 47%
    SNP- 39%
    Tory- 7%
    Lib Dem- 4%
    UKIP- 3%

  8. Such a result would be in line with the bookies odds that show Labour only being the narrow favourite to win.

  9. Interestingly, after Falkirk, Dundee West & Ochil (where the bookies have the SNP as favourites), West Dunbartonshire is one of the seats at the lowest odds for an SNP win from Labour, alongside Aberdeen North, both at evens.

    Personally, I would have Livingston down as the fourth SNP gain, and I think the odds are very good at 11/8.

    There isn’t much value left in the constituency markets for the SNP compared to three months ago, but East Kilbride at 7/4 and Cumbernauld at 9/4 look best value.

    Meanwhile, the odds for Edinburgh South West at 15/8 seem far too low.

  10. The SNP can take some of the Edinburgh seats with 30% whereas they need over 45% to win North Lanarkshire seats like Airdrie or Cumbernauld.

    What’s interesting about Edinburgh South is that much of the ex LD vote in Moringside could vote Green.

  11. You reckon? I’m not sure that the LD vote in the posher parts of Edinburgh would be quite racy enough to vote Green. I ‘d have thought that Labour & the SNP would gain a lot more of it than the Greens. In other parts of the seat closer towards the city centre perhaps you might be right.

  12. I would tend to agree with Barnaby. At least at Holyrood and in the council, the Green vote seems to be more central and Leith-ward. Perhaps more Fountainbridge than Morningside.

    That said, they do have a councillor in Morningside, although I would imagine most of the vote comes from the Meadows part of the ward.

    I could still see the Greens saving their deposit in Edinburgh South though, as they’re likely to take votes from Lib Dems who are fed up with the Labour-SNP tribalism.

  13. The ones that won’t vote Lib Dem any more are probably also the ones who would consider voting Green. If you don’t like the coalition, and you don’t like Labour much, then you’re running out of options, especially if you’d never dream of voting SNP.

  14. Odds Checker now has –

    5/6 Lab and 5/6 SNP here!

    Overall, Scotland is now –

    8/15 SNP
    11/8 Lab
    1/200 Con
    1/200 LD

    When you look at the individual constituencies though…most Labour seats are projected as Labour holds.

    Dumbartonshire East is 5/4 SNP and 9/4 Lab

    I think that Dumbartonshire East is the most likely Labour Gain.

    The three most competative seats is Glasgow are –

    Central
    Lab 4/6
    SNP 11/10

    North
    4/6 SNP
    6/5 Lab

    South
    4/7 Lab
    5/4 SNP

    This seems to be based on assuming that the large LD vote in former Glasgow Hillhead part of Glasgow North will switch to the SNP. I presonally think that Glasgow Central (largely based on Nicola Sturgeons Holyrood constituency) and Glasgow South would be better SNP prospects.

  15. Glasgow North is also one of the seats with the highest potential Green vote. They got 15.5% of the list vote in the Holyrood Kelvin seat and are possibly the seat with the most Green members.

    Although not targetting the seat nationally (Edinburgh East is being targetted), they would fancy their chances of holding their deposit, which could affect the SNP’s chances.

  16. I think the Greens will get votes from both Yes and No voters, so may not affect the SNP much more than Labour or the Lib Dems.

  17. The likelihood is that the majority of Greens in the seat will come from those who voted Lib Dem last time.

    Given that the Lib Dems achieved 31% of the vote in Glasgow North last time around, and there seems to be zero enthusiasm for the party in the seat, this could end up being one of the biggest falls in their vote in the country, and they could even realistically lose their deposit (dropped to 7.7% in Kelvin in 2011, and 4.1% in Maryhill).

    The churn is going to be extremely complicated, then:
    Lib Dem -> SNP + Lab + Grn
    Labour -> SNP + Grn
    SNP¨- > Grn
    To various degrees.

    Throw in the SSP/TUSC and UKIP (each on +/- 2%), and things start looking complicated.

  18. Personally I won’t call any Scottish seat until about 3 weeks before the election.

    Yes, the SNP do have the wind in their sails but there are too many factors at play here.

  19. Three weeks?!

    I’m thinking 9:59 am on Election Day!

  20. Well if every poll from now until the middle of campaign gives the SNP a huge lead you’d have to say they’re going to win most of the seats.

  21. I think that’s probably a fair point, Andy.

    I look forward to seeing Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish Polling which is being compiled.

  22. Dalek,

    The town is DuMbarton but the county is DuNbartonshire. Confusing, isn’t it.

  23. I normally do put N for the county but on this occasion got confused!

  24. Here are the complete Oddschecker Scottish favourites for May!

    Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (5)

    Aberdeen North (Central) SNP Gain from Lab
    Aberdeen South SNP Gain from Lab
    Banff & Buchan SNP Hold
    Gordon (& Aberdeen N) SNP Gain from LD
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine SNP Gain from LD

    Argyll & Bute (1)

    Argyll & Bute SNP Gain from LD

    Ayrshire (4)

    Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Lab Hold
    Ayrshire Central (Irvine & Troon) Lab Hold
    Ayrshire North & Arran (Largs) SNP Gain from Lab
    Kilmarnock & Loudoun SNP Gain from Lab

    Dundee and Angus (3)

    Angus (North) SNP Hold
    Dundee East (& Angus South) SNP Hold
    Dundee West SNP Gain from Lab

    East Renfrewshire (1)

    East Renfrewshire Lab Hold

    East Lothian (1)

    East Lothian Lab Hold

    Edinburgh (5)

    Edinburgh East SNP Gain from Lab
    Edinburgh North & Leith Lab Hold
    Edinburgh South Lab Hold
    Edinburgh South West Lab Hold
    Edinburgh West SNP Gain from LD

    Falkirk and West Lothian (3)

    Falkirk SNP Gain from Lab
    Linlithgow & Falkirk East SNP Gain from Lab
    Livingston SNP Gain from Lab

    Glasgow (7) Projection – SNP 4 and Lab 3

    Glasgow Central SNP Gain from Lab
    Glasgow East SNP Gain from Lab
    Glasgow North SNP Gain from Lab
    Glasgow North East Lab Hold
    Glasgow North West Lab Hold
    Glasgow South SNP Gain from Lab
    Glasgow South West Lab Hold

    Inverclyde (1)

    Inverclyde SNP Gain from Lab

    Moray (1)

    Moray SNP Hold

    Midlothian (1)

    Midlothian SNP Gain from Lab

    Na h-Eileanan an lar (1)

    Na h-Eileanan an lar (Outer Hebrides) SNP Hold

    North Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire (5)

    Airdrie & Shotts SNP Gain from Lab
    Coatbridge & Chryston & Bellshill Lab Hold
    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch E SNP Gain from Lab
    East Dunbartonshire SNP Gain from LD
    Motherwell & Wishaw SNP Gain from Lab

    Orkney and Shetland (1)

    Orkney & Shetland LD Hold

    Perthshire & Kinross and Clackmannanshire (2)

    Ochil & South Perthshire SNP Gain from Lab
    Perth & North Perthshire SNP Hold

    Renfrewshire (2)

    Paisley & Renfrewshire North SNP Gain from Lab
    Paisley & Renfrewshire North Lab Hold

    Scottish Highlands (3)

    Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP Gain from LD
    Inverness, Nairn Badenoch, Strathspey SNP Gain from LD
    Ross, Skye & Lochaber LD Hold

    South Lanarkshire, Scottish Borders and
    Dumfries and Galloway (6)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LD Hold
    Dumfries & Galloway Lab Hold
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Con Hold
    East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahago SNP Gain from Lab
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West Lab Hold
    Lanark & Hamilton East SNP Gain from Lab

    Stirling (1)

    Stirling SNP Gain from Lab

    West Dunbartonshire (1)

    West Dunbartonshire SNP Gain from Lab

  25. We only think about the SNP being so damaging to Labour in Scotland because Labour have become so dominate in Scotland from 1979 onwards. During this period we have seen a significant advance to of the Lib Dems and a total collapse of the Conservatives.

    I estimated how every one of the current Scottish constituencies would have voted in 1979 (Lab 34, Con 20, Lib 3 SNP 2) and applied the bookies favourite projections to each (SNP 38, Lab 17, Lib Dem 3 and Con 1). The net change is –

    SNP +36
    Lab -17
    Con -19
    Lib Dem No Change

    Compared to 1979 the Conservatives are projected to lose more 1979 seats than Labour.

    The Lib Dems would have had only three seats in 1979 lose one (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Stathspey) and gain one (Ross Skye & Lochaber).

    We may really only see the Liberals pushed back to where they were in 1979.

    Labour also win 4 seats that the Conservatives would have won in 1979.

    SNP Hold (2)

    Dundee East
    Na h-Eileanan an lar

    SNP Gain from Labour (21)

    Aberdeen North
    Ayrshire North & Arran
    Airdrie & Shotts
    Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross
    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
    Dundee West
    East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
    Edinburgh East
    Falkirk
    Glasgow Central
    Glasgow East
    Glasgow North
    Inverclyde
    Kilmarnock & Loudoun
    Lanark & Hamilton East
    Linlithgow & Falkirk East
    Livingston
    Midlothian
    Motherwell & Wishaw
    Paisley & Renfrewshire North
    West Dunbartonshire

    SNP Gain from Conservative (14)

    Aberdeen South
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
    Angus
    Argyll & Bute
    Banff & Buchan
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh West
    Fife North East
    Glasgow South
    Gordon
    Moray
    Ochil & South Perthshire
    Perth & North Perthshire
    Stirling

    SNP Gain from Lib Dem (1)

    Inverness, Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey

    Labour Hold (13)

    Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
    Ayrshire Central
    Coatbridge & Chryston & Bellshill
    Dunfermline & West Fife
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    Glasgow North East
    Glasgow North West
    Glasgow South West
    Glenrothes
    Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeith
    Paisley & Renfrewshire South
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West

    Labour Gain from Conservative (4)

    Dumfries & Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh South West

    Lib Dem Hold (2)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Orkney & Shetland

    Lib Dem Gain from Conservative (1)

    Ross, Skye & Lochaber

    Conservative Hold (1)

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

  26. There is to be no UKIP candidate here. Will Farage endorse the Labour candidate as the unionist most likely to stop the SNP?

  27. Labour Hold

  28. Ridiculous 34% swing to SNP

  29. Think Shaun called this one slightly wrong.

    SNP majority 14,171

  30. 34%
    Is that possible?

    Stupendous momentum.
    I may have to join the SNP.

  31. Part of the reason for the humongous swing here may have been down to the personal popularity of Martin Docherty himself, given he comes from the area originally and has been a local councillor here in the past.

  32. Most of the seats nearby had broadly similar swings.

  33. Jackie Baillie for Dumbarton was the only Labour MSP to support the replacement of Trident.

    Her Dumbarton constituency includes the submarine base which is part of the Argyll & Bute Westminster constituency. Her position may help her in that part of her constituency but the majority of voters live in Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven which is part of the West Dunbartonshire Westminster Constituency – identical to the YES vote council area – and extremely anti-Trident.

  34. “Part of the reason for the humongous swing here may have been down to the personal popularity of Martin Docherty himself, given he comes from the area originally and has been a local councillor here in the past.”

    LOL, so all the tories have to do to win knowsley is find a local man to stand there.

    ” the majority of voters live in Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven which is part of the West Dunbartonshire Westminster Constituency – identical to the YES vote council area – and extremely anti-Trident.”

    Ms Baillie is in a sticky wicket if most of her constituents want the terrorists to win

  35. I am delighted that Jackie Baillie has managed to frustrate her SNP opponents here. For some reason the cybernats really hate her.

  36. The CyberNats hate everyone really. Remember, ‘nationalism’ always needs an enemy.

  37. Lol Tristan I was trying to use Twitter to find out results last night. Typing in anywhere that didn’t vote SNP and all its residents were scorned with bile

  38. Dumbarton was hands down the best unionist result across the board.

  39. “The CyberNats hate everyone really. Remember, ‘nationalism’ always needs an enemy.”

    And for some reason Scottish nationalists claim their nationalism is an exception to the rule. What a joke.

  40. I would be interested to see the regional result from Dumbarton.
    I suspect that the unionist voters made have clustered around Ballie.

    If you remove Helensburgh, Luss and Cardross I would suspect the SNP would be well ahead in Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven.

    What’s incredible is the contrast to the other West Dunbartonshire constituency which despite including the unionist town of Milngavie from East Dunbartonshire registered a swing from Lab to SNP of between 15 to 20%.

  41. I would be interested to see the regional result from Dumbarton.
    I suspect that the unionist voters made have clustered around Ballie.

    If you remove Helensburgh, Luss and Cardross I would suspect the SNP would be well ahead in Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven.

    What’s incredible is the contrast to the other West Dunbartonshire constituency which despite including the unionist town of Milngavie from East Dunbartonshire registered a swing from Lab to SNP of between 15 – 20%.

  42. Scottish Parliamentary constituencies sorted by numerical majority by party (most marginal for each party).

    Conservative:
    1. Edinburgh Central – 610 (1.79%)
    2. Ayr – 750 (1.99%)
    3. Aberdeenshire West – 900 (2.56%)
    4. Dumfriesshire – 1,230 (3.39%)
    5. Galloway and West Dumfries – 1,514 (4.53%)

    Labour:
    1. Dumbarton – 106 (0.32%)
    2. Edinburgh Southern – 1,123 (2.94%)
    3. East Lothian – 1,127 (2.97%)

    Liberal Democrat:
    1. Edinburgh Western – 2,960 (7.44%)
    2. North East Fife – 3,465 (10.17%)
    3. Orkney – 4,534 (43.04%)
    4. Shetland – 4,895 (44.33%)

    Scottish National:
    1. Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – 1,422 (3.93%)
    2. Edinburgh Pentlands – 2,456 (7.36%)
    3. Angus North and Mearns – 2,472 (8.41%)
    4. Aberdeen South and North Kincardine – 2,755 (8.52%)
    5. Moray – 2,875 (8.60%)

  43. Regional results for Argyll & Bute and Dumbarton:

    Argyll and Bute:
    Scottish National – 12,327 (41.7%)
    Conservative – 7,151 (24.2%)
    Liberal Democrat – 3,856 (13.0%)
    Labour – 2,739 (9.3%)
    Green – 2,213 (7.5%)
    UK Independence Party – 679 (2.2%)
    Scottish Christian – 193 (0.7%)
    Solidarity – 162 (0.5%)
    Independent – 153 (0.5%)
    RISE – 86 (0.3%)

    Dumbarton:
    Scottish National – 13,059 (38.8%)
    Labour – 8,433 (25.1%)
    Conservative – 7,779 (23.1%)
    Green – 1,683 (5.0%)
    Liberal Democrat – 1,265 (3.8%)
    UK Independence Party – 665 (2.0%)
    Solidarity – 263 (0.8%)
    Scottish Christian – 212 (0.6%)
    RISE – 186 (0.6%)
    Libertarian – 69 (0.2%)

    Clear reports from both sides of the campaign suggest that the SNP did well in the West Dunbartonshire side of the constituency (around Vale of Leven and Dumbarton), Labour ahead in Helensburgh and Lomond, with a decent Tory vote here too.

  44. The six constituency MSP’s who have been continuously elected since the first Scottish Parliament:

    Jackie Baillie, Labour for Dumbarton.
    Roseanna Cunningham, SNP for Perthshire South and Kinross-shire.
    Fergus Ewing, SNP for Inverness and Nairn.
    John Scott, Conservative for Ayr – from by-election in 2000.
    Tavish Scott, Liberal Democrat for Orkney.
    John Swinney, SNP for Perthshire North.

    Sorted by majority:
    Tavish Scott, 4,895 (44.3%)
    Fergus Ewing, 10,857 (28.3%)
    John Swinney, 3,336 (9.8%)
    Roseanna Cunninghame, 1,422 (4.0%)
    John Scott, 750 (2.0%)
    Jackie Baillie, 109 (0.3%)

  45. Unbelievable that the Tories have won council seats in this part of the World!

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