Don Valley

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10736 (25.3%)
Labour: 19621 (46.2%)
Lib Dem: 1487 (3.5%)
UKIP: 9963 (23.5%)
TUSC: 437 (1%)
Others: 242 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8885 (20.9%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.

Main population centres: Thorne, Conisbrough, Bawtry, Hatfield, New Rossington, Finningley, Tickhill, New Edlington.

Profile: Don Valley covers the rural hinterland around the south of Doncaster. This is mostly made up of traditional former colliery towns and villages, though there are also a few more affluent towns like Tickhill and the upmarket Doncaster suburb of Bessacarr. The seat also contains Robin Hood Airport.

Politics: Don Valley has historically been a coal mining seat, with the monolithic Labour support that implies. In the past it used to be larger seat, a ring of mining villages that entirely encircled Doncaster to the north and south. These days the seat is slightly more heterogeneous, containing some suburban and non-mining towns and this, along with the disappearance of the mining industry, means Labour's position here is no longer as dominant as it once was.


Current MP
CAROLINE FLINT (Labour) Born 1961, Twickenham. Educated at Twickenham Girls School and East Anglia University. Former council officer and trade union officer. First elected as MP for Don Valley in 1997. PPS to Peter Hain 1999-2002, PPS to John Reid 2002-2003, Under Secretary of State at the Home Office 2003-2005, Minister for Public Health 2005-2007, Minister for Employment and Welfare Reform 2007-2008, Minister of State for Housing and Planning 2008-2009. Shadow Communities Secretary 2010-2011, Shadow Energy Secretary 2011-2015. Resigned from the government in 2009 claiming that Gordon Brown had seen her as female window dressing. She returned to the front bench under Ed Miliband, but declined to serve under Jeremy Corbyn.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12877 (30%)
Lab: 16472 (38%)
LDem: 7422 (17%)
BNP: 2112 (5%)
Oth: 4537 (10%)
MAJ: 3595 (8%)
2005*
Con: 10820 (29%)
Lab: 19418 (53%)
LDem: 6626 (18%)
MAJ: 8598 (23%)
2001
Con: 10489 (29%)
Lab: 20009 (55%)
LDem: 4089 (11%)
UKIP: 777 (2%)
Oth: 1266 (3%)
MAJ: 9520 (26%)
1997
Con: 10717 (25%)
Lab: 25376 (58%)
LDem: 4238 (10%)
Oth: 1847 (4%)
MAJ: 14659 (34%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CARL JACKSON (Conservative) Born High Wycombe. Educated at Oxford University. Consultant and former solicitor.
CAROLINE FLINT (Labour) See above.
RENE PATERSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1974. Educated at Don Valley High.
GUY ASTON (UKIP) Born 1951, Doncaster. Business and sales consultant.
LOUISE DUTTON (English Democrat)
STEVE WILLIAMS (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 177 Responses on “Don Valley”
  1. It amuses me how people who told us we had to leave the EU because the EU is dysfunctional and we don’t get what we want now think that the EU will make rational decisions that result in us getting exactly what we want.

    The truth is that, whatever the economic arguments in favour of Brexit on our terms, EU leaders can’t make leaving the EU seem attractive on political grounds. I reckon they will try and frustrate the process as much as they can, and will strongly resist breaking the link btwn the single market and free movement. In the end there will probably be a fudge, but like with Cameron’s renegotiation that may be a fudge that isn’t great for anyone.

    As for our position I think that the criticism for ‘not having a plan’ is a bit harsh at this stage. Davis has only been in post for about six weeks so it is clearly unrealistic to have answers on all the issues Brexit raises at this stage. And many are of course matters for negotiation.

  2. I see the Swiss are apparently on the verge of recognising that freedom of movement is necessary to keep their single market status.

  3. Jack
    “As for our position I think that the criticism for ‘not having a plan’ is a bit harsh at this stage. Davis has only been in post for about six weeks so it is clearly unrealistic to have answers on all the issues Brexit raises at this stage. And many are of course matters for negotiation.”

    It isn’t that he can’t get us what we want, or that he doesn’t know how to get us what we want or even that he doesn’t yet quite know what we want, its that if rumours are to be believed the powers that be can’t even agree on a method of ascertaining what we want!!!

  4. Maxim
    “We get a Norway deal with a “temporary” brake on freedom of movement that is simply left in place for fear of us leaving the single market”

    There isn’t a hope in hell we’ll get that, if nothing else Norway would be furious, why does Britain get special treatment? Also as Jack said the EU cannot afford to make Brexit seem attractive, such a deal would be the desired option of practically every EU member state. The EU’s only option is to play hardball with us.

    “If we can’t get concessions then I think we’ll pull out completely and just negotiate trade deals (or rather allow other countries to come to us, which they will”

    And tank our economy in the process? The shocks that have been felt just from the prospect we won’t attain full access to the single market have been huge but compared to pulling out entirely?!?! We’d become a pariah state!!!

    As for other countries as I said its hardly promising, sure many countries want trade deals (of course they do) but already the balance has shifted against us, we went from negotiating as the worlds largest economic bloc, 500 million people, a GDP of just shy of 20 trillion and global leaders in many industries to single country, 5th largest economy, 62 million people, GDP of 2.5 trillion and a massive trade deficit…. we’ve hardly gave ourselves a great hand have we? and this is before you start considering that the likes of Japan have all but said we can’t be trusted now, that’s a sentiment that’s probably felt by many globally.

  5. ‘That and the passage of time after the referendum should enable May to keep the status quo and get a Norway deal, which will most likely include free movement.’

    The Brexiters will never allow that

    The very basis of their campaign was their opposition to freedom of movement and the immigration it has caused

    Which means we will be spending the next five years seeing the likes of the ineffective Liam Fox going around trying to thrash out trade deals that aren’t even half as good as what we had when we in the EU

    Maybe Davis – the only competent one of the three stooges placed in charge of Brexit – might be able to sort out a few decent trade deals bit I fear these will be few and far between

  6. Maxim
    “That and the passage of time after the referendum should enable May to keep the status quo and get a Norway deal, which will most likely include free movement”

    I broadly agree some variant of EEA membership looks by far the most likely scenario but this raises two important points.

    1) Such a deal as you rightly say would HAVE to include free movement of people, that was also undoubtedly the main issue that won Leave the referendum, any deal accepting free movement is going to cause a big backlash and probably some big rifts in the Tory party.

    2) If we get EEA membership or some variant of it what was the effing point in leaving? We’d still have to accept free movement, we’d still have to pay into the EU budget, we’d still have to accept EU laws and regulations except now we’d have no representation within the EU and consequently no say over what the EU does and we’d receive but a fraction, if any of the money we once received from EU policies such as the regional development fund or the CAP. Its a worse deal by every conceivable measure, all of the bad but now some of the good removed as well…

    People don’t seem to realise that EEA membership was designed for countries like Norway with very special and unique circumstances that meant many of the benefits of the EU didn’t apply to them. Britain (despite what our media would have you believe) is not such a country. EEA membership would be the least worst option but its undoubtedly a worse deal than full EU membership…

  7. ‘If we get EEA membership or some variant of it what was the effing point in leaving? ‘

    There ids none – which is why I don’t see remaining in the single market as a viable option – which means more than likely we’ll be f****

    Surely it says something that no other country has decided to leave the EU and comparisons with Norway can’t be made because of its oil wealth and much smaller population

    Of course we will have to make a go of it and the more extreme Brexiters will go on a murderous rampage if MPs do try to and undo the referendum result at this stage but I do suspect that in 10-15 years the country as a whole with regret the decision they made on June 23

  8. Greetings from sunny Oslo.

    Norway has clearly and categorically said that it doesn’t want Britain in EEA-EFTA and will veto us if we apply to join. They do not want to lose their status as the dominant country and risk their pet issues of oil, fishing etc being sidelined by things of concern to the British.

    Plus of course there is no chance of this being acceptable to the electorate on immigration even if we somehow bribed Norway to let us in.

    We know little about what Brexit will look like yet but IMO we already know that a Norway solution won’t happen.

    I think we’ll have a free trade agreement on goods but be outside the single market on services. Similarly there will be some controls on free movement but nothing approaching “taking back full control of our borders”.

  9. HH
    “I think we’ll have a free trade agreement on goods but be outside the single market on services. Similarly there will be some controls on free movement but nothing approaching “taking back full control of our borders””

    Also a very good possibility but an equally crap deal. Britain has a huge trade deficit in goods, our exports are primarily service based thus not attaining full access to the single market on services is a near death sentence, goodbye London as Europe’s leading financial centre that’s for sure.

  10. ” goodbye London as Europe’s leading financial centre that’s for sure. ”

    History doesn’t necessarily repeat but that’s exactly what some people said when Britain didn’t join the single currency.

    And what some people said when Britain left the ERM.

  11. That’s why such a deal will be so easy to conclude. The EU have a clear interest in agreeing to UK importing their goods duty free, but no chance will they concede access to the financial services where we have a big competitive edge. This will be the price of some relief on free movement and the government will have to accept that.

  12. Too early to conclude it will be the death of the City. We will have to see.

  13. There is no real single market in services – it really is a very stunted thing indeed compared to that in goods.

    And the idea that London will be superseded by other European financial centres is pretty fanciful – not to mention parochial. London isn’t a ‘European’ financial centre, it is a global one. Its competitors are New York and Singapore, not Frankfurt or Paris.

    A lot of City firms are also quietly rather pleased about the prospect of moving out of the EU’s regulatory sphere.

  14. London’s other big advantage is that people, especially rich people, like living there

  15. ” London isn’t a ‘European’ financial centre, it is a global one. Its competitors are New York and Singapore, not Frankfurt or Paris. ”

    Indeed.

    And the potential for increased business in the future comes from the likes of China and India not from within the EU.

  16. “And the idea that London will be superseded by other European financial centres is pretty fanciful – not to mention parochial. London isn’t a ‘European’ financial centre, it is a global one. Its competitors are New York and Singapore, not Frankfurt or Paris”

    “And the potential for increased business in the future comes from the likes of China and India not from within the EU”

    But this ignores some very crucial issues primarily that like every other industry financial services like to cluster themselves together (its why most British high tech industries and companies are located in Cambridge or Oxford) London’s main competitors internationally are of course New York and such but its position was secured as Europe’s financial services centre. The reasons it became that way are complicated but it essentially constituted an accident of history. Now that it looks likely we no longer have access to the single market on services our position as Europe’s main financial centre probably disappears and by extension our global reach evaporates with it. London ceases to even be in the same league as New York.

    Cities have been eclipsed as financial capitals before, it wasn’t that many years ago that Tokyo was Asia’s leading financial centre, its since been eclipsed by Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai. The same thing could very easily happen to London being eclipsed by Frankfurt and Paris. Already many banks are planning relocations elsewhere. The signs so far are not good.

  17. ” London’s main competitors internationally are of course New York and such but its position was secured as Europe’s financial services centre. ”

    London’s position as a financial centre originated from world trade and the British empire.

    ” Already many banks are planning relocations elsewhere ”

    And your evidence for that statement is ?

  18. The ‘evidence’ is wishful thinking, as always.

    But it amuses me to see people on the left of politics suddenly wringing their hands about banks relocating…

  19. Richard
    “London’s position as a financial centre originated from world trade and the British empire”

    Exactly as I said, an accident of history, one that we have now revealed and will now quickly unravel…

    “And your evidence for that statement is ?”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4JcCbfSWF

    One of literally hundreds of articles and that’s just talking about the ones planning to move, doesn’t even consider the future investments that will be pulled.

  20. Runnymede
    “But it amuses me to see people on the left of politics suddenly wringing their hands about banks relocating…”

    It may amaze you to know that many of us on the left don’t seek to drive the banks away. At best we acknowledge they are a “necessary evil” at worst we acknowledge they currently pay the nations bills but we advocate a massive restructuring and diversification of our economy so that we could survive without them at some point in the future.

    Brexit though is jut economic self sabotage for no conceivable benefit…

  21. ” One of literally hundreds of articles and that’s just talking about the ones planning to move, doesn’t even consider the future investments that will be pulled. ”

    Dated 26 June.

    Perhaps you could show me some articles give evidence that relocations have happened and jobs lost.

    There were lots of articles predicting immediate job losses within a couple of days of the referendum. Here’s another:

    ‘ If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.

    “You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” ‘

    http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/

    As we were promised that thousands of London banking jobs would be cut from the end of June onwards would you please point out the banks and the numbers involved.

  22. ” Exactly as I said, an accident of history, one that we have now revealed and will now quickly unravel ”

    You, and other leftists, keep making these sorts of statements and they don’t amount to anything more than ‘something is going to happen because I say its going to happen’.

  23. No, despite their claims, they want it to happen – hoping people will be terrified into reversing the June referendum decision.

    That is front and centre for most on the left now – the EU vote has collapsed their entire world view.

  24. I think the City will muddle through and perhaps over the medium and long term be able to pick up new opportunities.

    I’ve come to the conclusion that our biggest challenge internationally is reputation, at least in the short term. The other day one of my customers in Scandinavia asked me if it was true that Brexit mobs are going around attacking and murdering Poles. The European media is making hay with this stuff and we need to work on it.

  25. ‘The other day one of my customers in Scandinavia asked me if it was true that Brexit mobs are going around attacking and murdering Poles’

    One Conservative approach that would genuinely be popular would be for May to toughen up the criminal justice system – and if that means building more prisons, so be it

    Sentences should be considerably longer, prison life should be considerably harsher and there should be much more crimes which receive a mandatory whole-life tariffs – such as for hate murders like those of the Pole

    Such an approach would no doubt be opposed by those on the hard Right and extreme Left – but I think the public would be supportive

  26. ‘The European media is making hay with this stuff and we need to work on it.’

    Yes, compare and contrast with somewhere like France or Germany, eh? No problems there.

    Really this is just silly season stuff.

  27. ‘Yes, compare and contrast with somewhere like France or Germany, eh? No problems there.’

    I think you might find that not everyone is as relaxed about the hateful, racist murders – which incidentally have surged after people like you had their way – as you obviously are

  28. ” The other day one of my customers in Scandinavia asked me if it was true that Brexit mobs are going around attacking and murdering Poles ”

    And your response was ?

    Given that there were 574 murders in England and Wales in 2015

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35372940

    and that Poles are approximately 1.5% of the population then there should be about 10 Poles murdered every year in England and Wales.

    IIRC the most likely demographic to be murdered are young men which would also increase the number of Polish murder victims.

  29. Here’s another story of an EU immigrant brutally murdered on the streets of London:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/man-admits-stabbing-professor-to-death-on-his-doorstep-in-random-attack-a3339781.html

    I wonder if this will attract the same level of interest among certain people.

    Or perhaps it doesn’t fit the narrative they want.

  30. It really is desperate stuff.

    First Jo Cox, now this. Remainers trying to make capital out of human tragedies – so grubby.

  31. ‘First Jo Cox, now this. Remainers trying to make capital out of human tragedies – so grubby.’

    Are we not allowed to mention that the vile criminal who killed her was a staunch Brexiter, who accused her of being a traitor – language used throughout the campaign by the most extreme Brexiters who like him, ‘wanted their country back’

    As for the murder Richard mentions, I’ll be the first to say that it is utterly appalling and the vile individual responsible should receive a whole-life tariff. He obviously won’t as this is the UK where judges bend over backwards to appease criminals, in which case at the end of his sentence he should be sent back to wherever it is he came from

  32. “And your response was ?”

    To change the subject.

    In business, as in friendships, never talk about religion or politics.

  33. Its hard to say since their have been some minor boundary changes and we’ve only had one election (2015) using them so we don’t know their history and volatility yet but for the wards that (roughly) correspond with this seat I’d guess the following.
    (Numbers in brackets are the current composition)

    Hatfield (2 Lab, 1 UKIP) =This will be interesting and a prime test, it was very close last time and Lab will be looking to take the last UKIP ward, UKIP will be looking to win a plurality and take an extra seat off Lab, I predict no change.

    Finningley (3 Con) =UKIP will be desperate to take a seat off the Tories but Lab will be hoping for a surprise win too and I think that will split the anti Tory vote here and allow full Con retention.

    Rossington and Bawtry (1 Lab, 1 Ind, 1 UKIP) =The Ind will definitely hang on, I think Lab will win the last seat off UKIP who only just managed to sneak a win last time.

    Tickhill and Wadworth (2 Con)= Outside chance of Lab picking up a seat but most likely a Con hold.

    Edlington and Warnsworth (2 Lab) =Two easy Lab holds.

    Conisbrough (3 Lab) =UKIP will be gunning to win at least one perhaps even two of the three seats here but I predict they’ll be unsuccessful, three Lab holds.

    So basically no real change, I may be totally wrong though.

  34. If you’re hoping for a Tory surge in these parts Maxim I wouldn’t hold your breath. The absolute best the Tories can hope for is to maybe win a councillor in the Rossington and Bawtry ward but its an outside shot at best. In the other wards the Tories either won a clean slate or came absolutely nowhere, they didn’t even put up full slates in some wards cos the chances of more than one being elected where essentially zero.

    Indeed looking at the local election results and the rise of the UKIP vote in relation to the main parties vote its clear that this is once again an area where UKIP’s rise disproportionately hit Labour, if UKIP implode Lab will probably be the beneficiary here.

  35. “that they hurt them more here in 2015 is obvious to me”

    What evidence do you have for that?

  36. Conveniently ignoring the 14% yellow loss? As you well know there is always a lot of churn, you cant just go “party X up, party Y up and party Z down so parties X and Y took votes from party Z” when the result could have well been…

    Tories lose nothing to UKIP, gain 14 points from the Libs and lose 19 to Lab.
    Lab gain 19 form the Cons but lose 11 points to UKIP.

    Not saying that did happen as it probably didn’t but its mathematically plausible.

    Look at the local election results in the seat, the UKIP rise corresponds exactly with a collapse in the Lab vote in certain wards and appears to have done hardly anything to the Cons.

  37. PoliticalBetting.com suggests this as a shock Tory gain because of its very high Leave vote. Anything to back this up on the ground?

  38. I think the reason they are hoping for this is that a regular and well liked poster over there (known as Tissue Price) is the Conservative candidate.

  39. Steven Sharp
    Beware of the generic fallacy. Just because the site is favourably disposed towards the Tory candidate does not necessarily invalidate the actual reasons behind the prediction. In theory at any rate this must be an outside possibility. The combined Tory and UKIP vote was 48.8%. Given that there is a swing from Labour to the Tories of some size, and given that there was a very high Leave vote in the area, and given that there is considerable evidence that some Labour Leavers are switching to the Tories, and given that the demography of the place is slowly changing, as I say there must be the outside possibility of a shock result. Which is why I asked for evidence from the constituency itself.

  40. I don’t think so either.
    Labour hold 7-9%

  41. The fact that UKIP aren’t standing here means this seat might well be the best indicator of what I’ve been screeching about for the last 2 years that is that UKIP took a great many votes off Labour, in seats like this probably more than they took off the Tories and that a good chunk of that UKIP vote wont under any circumstances back the Tories (this is the home of Orgreave after all)

    We’ll have to wait and see but given that the Tories have basically morphed into UKIP I don’t thinks its controversial to say they will perform better at reclaiming ex kippers but in a seat like this I think a great many will back Labour instead and a great many more would sooner not vote than go to the Cons. Thus I’m predicting a Lab hold.

  42. Would imagine Caroline Flint is also a big draw on the door. She seems to be a very well liked MP. She’s turned this from a marginal into a safe seat.

  43. Quint
    I wouldn’t go that far, Caroline Flint always struck me as as a bit brain dead and a very bad fit for the constituency, also this seat has been held by Labour since 1922 and for the most part with far larger majorities than it has now, This is less a case of Flint making the seat safe more a case that’s she’s probably partially at fault for why it became marginal in the first place.

  44. This is turning into quite an exciting discussion.
    It seems to me that a good deal of the comment is based on the notion that this is a safe Labour seat, always has been and always will be. This is the home of Orgreave and all that.
    But the received opinion now is that the Scottish Independence Referendum allowed for a shifting of the tectonic political plates, thus allowing Labour to lose Glasgow South, their safest seat. There is a growing narrative that the European Referendum may produce a similar shift in English and Welsh voting. Electoral Calculus reckons that 12 % of Labour Leave voters will vote Tory. In such a heavily Leave area as this, the question is will this be significant and if not why not?

  45. Wwsorty, I think I meant Gladgow SW.

  46. “This is the home of Orgreave and all that.”

    Orgreave is in Rother Valley, far closer to Sheffield/Rotherham than Doncaster.

    This seat has always had its nice rural bits and therefore more of a natural Tory base.

  47. 2010 is likely to be a better starting point for this constituency than 2015 as in the latter year there was a boost to Labour from having Ed Miliband as leader.

  48. “This is the home of Orgreave” was a quote from Rivers10, 5.15 post.

  49. Goes to show, orielensis, that you shouldn’t take anything on authority. One would have thought you would have learnt that at Oriel, Oxford, where I assume you study, or studied…

  50. Glasgow North East was Labours safest Scottish seat. I am certain that Liverpool Walton and Bootle were safer in 2010.

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