Doncaster North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7235 (18.3%)
Labour: 20708 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 1005 (2.5%)
Green: 757 (1.9%)
UKIP: 8928 (22.6%)
TUSC: 258 (0.7%)
Loony: 162 (0.4%)
Others: 448 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 11780 (29.8%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.

Main population centres: Mexborough, Adwick le Street, Bentley, Carcroft, Moorends, Askern, Stainforth.

Profile: The more rural northern part of Doncaster borough, studded with former pit towns and villages. This is a traditional mining seat but most of the collieries are now gone, bringing with it the strains of deprivation and unemployment and the slow transition from pit villages to commuter towns for Doncaster and Barnsley. Coal continues to be mined at Hatfield, one of the few remaining coal mines operating in Yorkshire, and a new carbon-capture coal fired power station is planned in the area.

Politics: Like other South Yorkshire mining seats Doncaster North is a solid Labour seat. At a local level Doncaster`s political history is more interesting. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.


Current MP
ED MILIBAND (Labour) Born 1969, St Pancras, younger brother of David Miliband. Educated at Haverstock Comprehensive and Oxford University. Former Treasury advisor. First elected as MP for Doncaster North in 2005. Parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet Office from 2006-2007, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster with responsibility for the next manifesto 2007-2008, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change 2008-2010, Leader of the Opposition 2010-2015. Miliband became leader of the Labour party in 2010,defeating his own brother for the leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8728 (21%)
Lab: 19637 (47%)
LDem: 6174 (15%)
BNP: 2818 (7%)
Oth: 4126 (10%)
MAJ: 10909 (26%)
2005*
Con: 4875 (15%)
Lab: 17531 (56%)
LDem: 3800 (12%)
BNP: 1506 (5%)
Oth: 3866 (12%)
MAJ: 12656 (40%)
2001
Con: 4601 (15%)
Lab: 19788 (63%)
LDem: 3323 (11%)
UKIP: 725 (2%)
Oth: 2926 (9%)
MAJ: 15187 (48%)
1997
Con: 5906 (15%)
Lab: 27843 (70%)
LDem: 3369 (8%)
Oth: 1181 (3%)
MAJ: 21937 (55%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK FLETCHER (Conservative) Educated at Ridgewood Comprehensive School and Cambridge University.
EDWARD MILIBAND (Labour) See above.
PENNY BAKER (Liberal Democrat) Sheffield councillor 2007-2011 and since 2012.
KIM PARKINSON (UKIP) Born 1953, Doncaster. Educated at Nottingham University. Business consultant.
PETER KENNEDY (Green) Educated at Bridgewater High School and Sheffield University.
DAVID ALLEN (English Democrat) Born Doncaster. Former sales manager. Contested South Yorkshire police election 2012.
MARY JACKSON (TUSC) Advice worker.
NICK THE FLYING BRICK (Loony) , real name Nick Delves. Educated at Cheltenham Arts College. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008, Derbyshire Dales 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election, Newark 2014 by-election. Shadow minister for abolition of gravity.
Links
Comments - 605 Responses on “Doncaster North”
  1. It’ll be interesting to see whether Miliband gets the very big rise in support that new party leaders usually receive in their constituencies.

  2. An Ashcroft national poll has just been published putting Labour on 29%, 0.7% lower than they received at the 2010 general election.

    (The Conservatives are on 30%, UKIP 16%, LD 10%, Green 6%).

  3. Labour are going to get a dismal share of the vote in 2015, marginally up on their 2010 share while the tories will get 3% ish higher which will make the election pretty close in my view.

    Con- 34%
    Lab- 31%
    UKIP-15%
    LD-10%
    Green- 3%

  4. I think the tories will struggle to get 34% if ukip are as high as 15%…but the collapse in labour’s vi has been extraordinary….funnily enough even on con 30, lab 29…labour get the most seats. in fact i don’t think there’s been a single poll showing the tories getting the most seats since the summer of 2010…

  5. Ed’s speech didn’t help matters.

  6. andy js,

    I was astonished by the awfulness of that speech and amazed when he casually admitted that he “forgot” the bits about the deficit and immigration/….cameron then gave a polished speech…then the scottish mayhem have piled it onto labour.

    i think they are terrified of spending another 5 years in opposition.

  7. I’d predict something like
    Con – 34%
    Lab – 32%
    LD – 12%
    UKIP – 12%
    Grn – 3%(though maybe lower given they won’t stand everywhere)

  8. i still think labour will edge the popular vote, but that belief is looking suspect. even at what you predict, iain, labour are the largest party…

    i know tories in semi-marginals are beginning to breathe a sigh of relief. i know someone who works in the office of one of the milton keynes seats who was genuinely worried earlier in the year. now, thanks to mili, he is confident he’ll hold next year.

  9. but let’s get this in perspective. the tories are doing terribly. and rochester is looking bad for them.

  10. A party that has been behind on the leader and the economy in the polls has never won a general election in this country. This is worse for Ed Miliband as he is miles behind on both

  11. Next year’s election looks like being one dismal race to the bottom.

  12. Latest national poll from Survation:

    Lab 31%
    Con 27%
    UKIP 24%
    LD 9%

  13. Mili’s has had the week from hell…funnily enough the really shocking polling week for labour was last week, capped by ashcroft’s poll in monday.

    Mili is clearly a big problem for labour. It’s what you get when you get superannuated SpAds as leaders of major parties

  14. At least 20 shadow ministers are on brink of calling for Miliband to stand down, reports the Observer:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

  15. Incredible process of self-immolation under way it seems…

  16. Moronic, Miliband isn’t going anywhere and no doubt Labour’s poll ratings will be getting much closer to Miliband’s next week due to all this.

  17. Perhaps we will be hearing about the 25% strategy soon…

  18. I love the way the Observer is being described as a “pro-Labour” paper – it’s even more right wing than its ghastly sister paper The Grauniad!

  19. There is only one pro-Labour national paper in the UK, people do forget this. The Guardian and Observer are no friends of the party. They play host to a lot of left-wingers but the only Labour member among them is Owen Jones, whose impression of an unpleasable Bennite flinging poo at his own side doesn’t do them much good.

  20. Polly Toynbee is about as pro-Labour as they come. I don’t know if she is a party member but she has often warm words about Miliband and is generally seen as a supporter.

  21. Ah yes, I missed her. An odd one, that rare former Owenite who wound up supporting Ed. Aside from Doctor Death himself of course.

  22. I wonder if the Bonfire Plot might lose Ed his seat.

  23. No way D.Alex

  24. “Polly Toynbee is about as pro-Labour as they come”

    Oh God the party is in worse trouble than I thought!

  25. ANDY JS you clearly just posted that survation poll because it is the only poll for a while now that has posted a labour lead that big. Most polls are hinting at a dead tie, maybe a one point labour lead. Two on a really good day.

  26. I posted it because it’s the sort of poll which could cause Miliband to cease being leader of the Labour Party.

  27. Robbie, I don’t post here that much now and it’s partly because I don’t have the psephological knowledge of the regular contributors, but also because it’s cluttered with your posts (and the likes of D Alex).

    Andy is one of the most respected contributors, knows a lot and seems very neutral to me in terms of partisanship. He’s simply posted a relevant poll. I know you’re only young but your post is stupid, and comes on top of an endless load of previous posts containing a lot of ill-digested adolescent claptrap.

    I’d politely suggest that in your case, less is definitely more in terms of your posting. Do us all a favour and give it a rest.

  28. CHRIS K

    I agree with you sentiments re master Robbie but I’m afraid nothing can seem to disourage him. Best to ignore him – I know I’m defeating my own argument by this post!

  29. Adults: “more kids should be interested in politics.”

    *Child becomes interested in politics*

    “I hate it when kids are interested in politics.”

  30. Chris K is going for the most patronising person award 2014.
    If you have nothing to say apart from insult others, (against terms and conditions of this site) then why don’t YOU give it a rest. Not sure you’ve written anything insightful – ever.

  31. Exactly , this site should, IMO be a place where we can all embrace each other’s weirdness.

  32. Are the bookies offering odds on whether Ed Miliband will lead Labour into the next election, and if so what are they?

    It seems to me that there are currently a lot of less than neutral articles on Ed Miliband in the papers. When people are putting their money on the line they might be more honest.

    Incidentally, there have been articles and media appearances by financial backers of the Labour Party as to whether they still support Miliband. But isn’t the acid test whether ordinary party voters will support him, both nationally and in this his own seat?

    I have made a number of negative posts about Miliband on this thread. However, the fundamental issue is not Ed Miliband personally but whether Labour have lost touch with their grassroots.

    And if Miliband were to go, who would be better, making the difference needed to win?

  33. ‘However, the fundamental issue is not Ed Miliband personally but whether Labour have lost touch with their grassroots.’

    Labour clearly have lost touch with their grassroots in the same way as Cameron’s Conservatives have lost touch with theirs

    This partially explains why UKIP have done so well with both sets of voters

    What’s unlikely to win them back is when Cameron and Milliband try to talk tough on issues like immigration and the EU because it’s so obvious that neither of them believe in what they are pretending to, taking people for idiots

    Which is why politicians like Ken Clarke who try to expose UKIP for what they are, are refreshing – rather trhan pretending to cosy up to them as Camereon and Milliband – albeit to a lesser extent – do

  34. I seem to remember Nick Clegg trying to expose UKIP for what they are. Fat lot of good it did him electorally.

    Whatever you think of the man and the party, most people would have had Clegg down as more capable of going toe-to-toe with Farage than either Cameron or Miliband.

  35. CHRISHORNET

    You must be joking, Clegg made a fool of himself in that debate and quite rightly was judged to have lost to Farage.

    If Ed can’t do better than that I despair.

  36. You must be joking, Clegg made a fool of himself in that debate and quite rightly was judged to have lost to Farage.

    Clearly. But prior to the debate, I don’t think many would have Miliband or Cameron down to do better.

  37. Labour clearly have lost touch with their grassroots in the same way as Cameron’s Conservatives have lost touch with theirs

    Absolutely correct…that’s why the two main parties have never been polling so low at the same time. it’s an extraordinary time.

  38. ‘that’s why the two main parties have never been polling so low at the same time.’

    Is it though?

    In the case of the Tories it’s always argued that Cameron and his Eton chums are out of touch with the party’s grass roots – and they undoubtedly are – but surely they aren’t as politically out of touch as say during the reigns of Eton and Macmillon, when the leadership was waaay to the Left of where it is today, and yet regularly achieved around 45% of the vote in the 1950s and early 1960s

    Given the current mood of the party it must be tempting for Cameron to look at the combined UKIP and Tory vote, and try his best to convince people he’s what the right-wing press like to call a genuine conservative – anti EU, anti immigration – but people know that he’s not, and with the Lib Dems likely to collapse and Labour lacking any authority on the economy, I think there’s plenty of centrist voters who won’t be won over to the Tories if Cameron keeps trying to compete with UKIP by banging on about their favourite subjects of Europe and immigration

  39. obviously i meant eden and macmillan!

  40. Lab 45
    Ukip 33
    Con 11
    Bnp 4
    LD 3
    Green 3

  41. I don’t see Ed dropping – he might not rise by much.

  42. The Labour vote’s been dropping for years and I’m not really sure he’s the type of person who would benefit from a leader boost. Though I tend to agree in general.

    Tories obviously know they can’t win here, the BNP and English Democrat votes will likely collapse onto UKIP, I’m not complete were the Lib Dem vote with go but I’d guess Labour will be the most likely beneficiaries. Though the Greens may cancel some of that out if they stand here. It’ll certainly be an interesting constituency to watch.

  43. the 1950s were a totally different era. you can’t really compare those days with the britain of 2014. It’s like comparing 1914 with the 1850s…the political climate couldn’t be more different.

  44. ‘the 1950s were a totally different era.’

    It certainly was

    Back then we had politicians with integrity, and despite a few bad apples, the majoirity of MPs were in Parliament because they wanted to serve their country, not because they thought they could bulk up their bank balance, as is the case with too many MPs nowadays

  45. What has changed since the 1950s is that society is more individualistic, less collectivist and less deferential. Voters who in former decades would have been left wing Labour voters or right wing Conservative voters are less willing to plump for a large, broad church party in the knowledge that it will deliver something approaching, but never all, of the policies they want. It’s that that is behind the rise in support for smaller parties at the expense of the big two, not so much that either of the latter have “lost touch with their grassroots”.

  46. The biggest change is surely that today’s electorate is more realistic – some would see cynical – about politicians as a whole and the limits to what they can achieve, hence the far lower turn out when compared to the 1950s, when democratically elected politicians were held in far higher esteem

  47. Both factors are at play I think. The quality of politicians, and their standards of behaviour, have certainly declined.

    The quality of political discourse has declined even more. I ‘grew up’ politically in the 1980s when political debate was still dominated by serious policy-based discussions.

    The contrast with today, when so much of the political narrative is spin, pathetic personal attacks and even more pathetic sloganising, is very stark.

    Politics probably hasn’t been as shallow as it is today since the 18th century. The public don’t think politicians are serious about trying to deal with issues that are important to them, they rather think that politicians think it is all just a game.

    And unfortunately they are basically correct.

  48. Sure, part of the electorate is more realistic. However other parts of it are less so, as evidenced by the rise in support for small parties promising simple, pain free solutions with incoherent policy platforms.

  49. Totally agree with Runnymead’s analysis

    There’s always been a good deal of self-interest in politics -afterall hundreds of years ago political parties were formed in the firest place to serve and promote the interests of the estabishment (Whigs and Tories) and just as today they would lie through their teeth when questioned about it – but over the last 40 years or so it does seem that a sense of duty amongst our Parliamentarians has been replaced with a sense of entitlement

  50. Kieran – re. ‘simple, pain free solutions’ and ‘incoherent policy platforms’….do you mean Labour, the Lib Dems or possibly the Tories?

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