Doncaster North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7235 (18.3%)
Labour: 20708 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 1005 (2.5%)
Green: 757 (1.9%)
UKIP: 8928 (22.6%)
TUSC: 258 (0.7%)
Loony: 162 (0.4%)
Others: 448 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 11780 (29.8%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.

Main population centres: Mexborough, Adwick le Street, Bentley, Carcroft, Moorends, Askern, Stainforth.

Profile: The more rural northern part of Doncaster borough, studded with former pit towns and villages. This is a traditional mining seat but most of the collieries are now gone, bringing with it the strains of deprivation and unemployment and the slow transition from pit villages to commuter towns for Doncaster and Barnsley. Coal continues to be mined at Hatfield, one of the few remaining coal mines operating in Yorkshire, and a new carbon-capture coal fired power station is planned in the area.

Politics: Like other South Yorkshire mining seats Doncaster North is a solid Labour seat. At a local level Doncaster`s political history is more interesting. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.


Current MP
ED MILIBAND (Labour) Born 1969, St Pancras, younger brother of David Miliband. Educated at Haverstock Comprehensive and Oxford University. Former Treasury advisor. First elected as MP for Doncaster North in 2005. Parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet Office from 2006-2007, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster with responsibility for the next manifesto 2007-2008, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change 2008-2010, Leader of the Opposition 2010-2015. Miliband became leader of the Labour party in 2010,defeating his own brother for the leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8728 (21%)
Lab: 19637 (47%)
LDem: 6174 (15%)
BNP: 2818 (7%)
Oth: 4126 (10%)
MAJ: 10909 (26%)
2005*
Con: 4875 (15%)
Lab: 17531 (56%)
LDem: 3800 (12%)
BNP: 1506 (5%)
Oth: 3866 (12%)
MAJ: 12656 (40%)
2001
Con: 4601 (15%)
Lab: 19788 (63%)
LDem: 3323 (11%)
UKIP: 725 (2%)
Oth: 2926 (9%)
MAJ: 15187 (48%)
1997
Con: 5906 (15%)
Lab: 27843 (70%)
LDem: 3369 (8%)
Oth: 1181 (3%)
MAJ: 21937 (55%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK FLETCHER (Conservative) Educated at Ridgewood Comprehensive School and Cambridge University.
EDWARD MILIBAND (Labour) See above.
PENNY BAKER (Liberal Democrat) Sheffield councillor 2007-2011 and since 2012.
KIM PARKINSON (UKIP) Born 1953, Doncaster. Educated at Nottingham University. Business consultant.
PETER KENNEDY (Green) Educated at Bridgewater High School and Sheffield University.
DAVID ALLEN (English Democrat) Born Doncaster. Former sales manager. Contested South Yorkshire police election 2012.
MARY JACKSON (TUSC) Advice worker.
NICK THE FLYING BRICK (Loony) , real name Nick Delves. Educated at Cheltenham Arts College. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008, Derbyshire Dales 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election, Newark 2014 by-election. Shadow minister for abolition of gravity.
Links
Comments - 605 Responses on “Doncaster North”
  1. If Ed Miliband wins the General Election. I wonder what job he will give his brother? Maybe David Miliband will be offered the Foreign Office?

    I think the brothers have done a deal. I would be very surprised if they have not given the bad feeling the young usurper created over the leadership.

  2. gawd… David M at the Foreign Office…! Like 2003 all over again… oops sorry Iran is off the agenda… where else can the Atlanticists stir up some tension…?

    and if they have done a deal have they bothered to tell anyone else in the party? which newly elected MP will throw themselves on their sword to give him a soapbox? Better be an uber-safe seat because having a pliant MP resign and cause a by-election a few weeks after the General Election would be a good way to tempt fate…

    If this shell-game wasn’t executed fast then someone else might get comfortable at the Foreign Office and not fancy being bundled out to make way for a resurgent brother..

  3. What a shame for the Tories that you are not advising Ed Miliband.

    It would be a great move, parachuting his brother into the lords to make him foreign secretary, forgetting of course his previous excellent performance in that role, signing documents allowing the Americans to kidnap British residents and torture them to near-death. That would really help Labour to put the Iraq war behind it.

  4. Reply was for Rum & Coke

  5. I hadn’t thought of the Lords… cunning..

    that would be a quick fix… voters might not take kindly to the deus ex machina nature of such a reappearance..

  6. The US would love it… could you imagine David M (otherwise known as Lord Primrose) leading the anti-Syria bombing vote last August 30th? No way…

  7. Though Rum & Coke is correct that Ed Miliband will be very short of high-calibre people to fill the senior cabinet posts. I can’t see anyone on his front bench with the gravitas to be a good foreign secretary. Maybe he’ll bring back Peter Mandelson.

  8. If he has over 300 MPs and only a handful with gravitas it is a bit of an indictment of the MP selection process… its not like they have been 20 years in opposition..

    Mandelson coming and going makes the Labour attitude look like the American system of non-parliamentary Secretaries running ministries.. turn up only when the going is good..

  9. You are correct but I think it’s inevitable, given the lack of talent and experience in the shadow cabinet. To a lesser extent, Clarke and Hague also fit your description on the Tory side. If Ed is really desperate for a statesman he might even ask Blair to come back to be foreign secretary, though it might be a political disaster to do so. On the other hand an experienced foreign secretary would make Ed look inexperienced….maybe he’ll go for a young yes-man after all.

  10. Maybe the front-bench is not hunting through the ranks for someone with talent for the future.. maybe someone like Tristram Hunt might be better groomed for a role with a lack of other potential talent (like the FO) and some other newbie could be sent to education..

    or is it a sign that no-one with long term prospects wants the potentially poisoned cup of foreign relations.. after Ed M. baulked at the Syria bombing it is the best chance in decades for an up and comer to get involved with a ministry that doesn’t have to be “follow-the-Washington leader”. At least one would be responsible for one’s own mistakes rather than for those of another country as well.

  11. Good on Ed Miliband for choosing his own songs for Desert Island Discs. Others (Blair and Cameron) probably didn’t!

    I haven’t heard the programme yet but he starts to sound more authentic every day. I think people are fed up with manufactured politicians and this could see Ed to the winning line!

    I don’t agree with his reference to the press interest in his family, “You can’t understand me without understanding where I come from. In modern politics who you are, and who your family is, is always going to be relevant and important to people. It comes with the territory.” Is he really saying that anyone with family members that are not squeaky clean can’t be in politics? You can choose your friends, your partner/husband/wife but you can’t choose your family! Just because a member of your family did something horrible doesn’t mean you agree with what they did, support what they did or would do it yourself. You are only responsible for your own actions, you can’t be expected to be responsible for the actions of your entire family. Jack Straw has some members of his family with interesting issues, it didn’t make him unfit to hold high office!

  12. The problem with Ed Miliband is he is a pre-manufactured politician. Lucky for him he is not the only one in a prominent position at the moment.

    The reason why I outlined a possible political pact with his brother is the fact that David Miliband has said he might come back to British Politics. After one Miliband as leader I doubt Labour would then say the first Miliband didn’t cut it so we will have his brother!

    I actually think that a senior position in a Miliband government might well be what the two brothers have in mind. I don’t think Ed will win the 2015 election as Labour is nowhere near polling strong enough leads or have the type of policy platform required to unpick themselves from the Brown government. But the Labour leadership are not going to go around planning for defeat, they plan for victory.

  13. David Miliband is the Michael Portillo of the Labour party. He’s blown several good chances to lead the party and he won’t get any more. If he can’t be leader he’s not interested in coming back, and they won’t be asking him to, certainly not if Ed becomes PM which will be a personal vindication for him against his brother.

  14. I assume he picked “The Red Flag” as one of his songs?

  15. Yes, and “He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother”

  16. he may have put some weight on though what with all those large New York meals.

  17. I couldn’t find an easy-to-read 2010 election results spreadsheet anywhere online so I decided to compile one myself. I did find a few others, such as those done by Pippa Morris and the Guardian datablog, but they were surprisingly difficult and/or confusing to read. Hopefully this one is as simple as possible while still retaining the essential data:

    http://bit.ly/1aR6kih

  18. David Miliband has left British politics and won’t be coming back.

    And I think people are forgetting that Labour will win a majority with 35% of the vote, and they are almost bound to achieve that – and it is hard to imagine the Tories picking up votes, and they only got 36% last time…..

  19. I don’t think the next election is the easy walk-over some Labour people currently think.

    I don’t think 35% is in the bag for Labour for number of votes either. We are still in the period when the sole opposition party has a blank sheet of paper policy wise and so is maximising its poll rating. I don’t think Labour have any credible policies to offer (Freezing energy prices) and oppositions don’t normally win elections by running on fear. It is usually governing parties that do that.

  20. Merseymike’s comment isn’t quite as certain as A Brown’s, however I would contend it is still somewhat complacent from his party’s point of view. I don’t agree that any fair reading of the evidence implies that Labour are “almost bound” to get 35%. They might do, but it’s historically a tall order to increase your vote by 5-6% from one election to the next. The last time Labour got 35% was in 2005 and in 2015 Labour will still do considerably worse in the south than they did in that election, so to get a similar national vote share they will have to do much better in the north than they did in that election.

    Miliband does not need 35% to get into Downing Street – he just needs 32-33% to get him enough seats to form a coalition or perhaps a minority administration. Personally I think that is the most likely outcome.

  21. Rum & Coke – just as we should tend to expect governments, by & large, to recover to some extent in the polls as the election draws nearer, we should also tend to expect policy announcements as it draws nearer. Labour are bound to have a broader raft of policies in 2015 than is the case now, so you may be guilty of being rather complacent (if you prefer the Tories – if you don’t, I apologize for calling you complacent).

  22. Who can honestly say what the outcome will be in 2015? No party has a majority and thus cannot be compared to the huge majorities that Thatcher and Blair enjoyed.

    What is possible more than ever is that voters aren’t going to give one party a huge majority in the foreseeable future.

    Rarely does a governing party increase their majority at a following election anyway. That is what’s most dangerous for Cameron who is without that cushion of a majority.

  23. At the risk of repeating previous comments. 2015 is wide open for all the reasons mentioned but that may not be the case in future elections unless something unforeseen happens. The Conservatives are steadily losing support outside the rural/suburban South/Midlands and this could lead to future elections whereby this phenomenon combined with any failure of the Lib Dems to recover and any sustained support for UKIP could lead to Labour winning large majorities by default.

  24. ‘Rarely does a governing party increase their majority at a following election anyway. That is what’s most dangerous for Cameron who is without that cushion of a majority.’

    The best news for Labour is that the Tories look likely to revert to a core vote strategy in 2015 in the belief that if they do so the vast majority of people who would vote UKIP will vote Tory, and in doiung so they will win a majoroty with about 45% of the vote

    This is what Peter Bone was saying on yesterday’s politics show and all the signs are that he’s won that particular debate within the Tories

    That’s one of the main differences between Cameron and Blair. Blair took on his Left Wing and won. Cameron doesn’t dare take on the Right Wing of the Tory Party and subsequently they get their way at the drop of a hat

  25. There is a marked contrast between the situation Blair found himself in in the 1990s and the position Cameron is in now. Blair could afford to take on the left of the Labour Party with impunity for two reasons. Firstly fifteen years in opposition and four election defeats had created a situation where much of the Labour Party would put up with anything they thought had a chance of delivering victory.

    Secondly Blair had no equivalent of UKIP to worry about. He could piss off the left to his hearts content in the secure knowledge that they had nowhere else to go.

  26. “Firstly fifteen years in opposition and four election defeats had created a situation where much of the Labour Party would put up with anything they thought had a chance of delivering victory.

    Secondly Blair had no equivalent of UKIP to worry about. He could piss off the left to his hearts content in the secure knowledge that they had nowhere else to go.”

    And thirdly, by the mid-1990s the policies and ideology of the left wing of the Labour party had been completely and utterly discredited in the public’s mind to a far greater extent than right wing Conservative policies have been discredited today. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and of the USSR in 1991 made it far easier for Blair to rout the left a couple of years later. Only since the Iraq war and the financial crisis has the left really been able to regain public credibility.

  27. ‘There is a marked contrast between the situation Blair found himself in in the 1990s and the position Cameron is in now.’

    There are many contrasts – and I agree with all of your points – mand those of Hemelig – but if the Tories go down the cire vote strategy they adopted in 2001 – and to a lesser extent 2005 – they won’t emerge with a majority – as the likes of Bone tend to believe

    I very much doubt UKIP will even reach double figures in 2015 in terms of the popular vote – so it seems foolish to disillusion centrist voters in an attempt to win votes from people who despite what they tell the pollsters will end up voting Tory anyway

  28. Also Blair had a huge three-figure majority in the 100 region between 1997 and 2005, so he didn’t have to worry about dealing with the left as they were greatly outnumbered by his supporters and those of Brown as well to a lesser extent. I think the Tories encountered their problems in the mid-90s for exactly the opposite reason- A much much smaller majority for Major than Thatcher had earned meant that suddenly the right on the backbenches seemed a lot bigger- They were able to take advantage of the government’s reduced numbers, and wield more influence as a result, led over Maastricht by one Bill Cash for example.

    If Cameron doesn’t take some action now to deal with the more rightish elements within his party, he might regret it come 2015- UKIP are there to split the vote enough as it is, so as if that wasn’t enough for him to contend with (ironically arguably as a result of the same internal divisions back in the 90s) he also has to keep in check the troublemakers who could lose him the election potentially.

  29. To be honest it isn’t easy to conclude what is the best strategy for Cameron. He has to persuade both the centrist floating voters and UKIP waverers to vote for him if he’s to remain in number 10, and it’s not easy to imagine a strategy which will achieve both. Unlike Labour in the 1990s, another problem for Cameron is that the two extremes of the debate are equally nutty. I don’t think Peter Bone is much more barmy or deluded than Nick Boles is, for example. The best Cameron can do is to try to steer a middle course between these two extremes and hope for the best, though that kind of strategy didn’t work very well for John Major.

    As pointed out on the Thanet thread, Tories in marginal seats are disproportionately moderate, so if Cameron goes down to a relatively bad defeat he will be left with an exceptionally right-wing parliamentary party which will reinforce the problems he is facing now.

  30. If we stop labour from getting a majority – that would be a job reasonably well done.

  31. Cameron took on ‘the right’ with his modernisation strategy and it failed – hence the coalition.

    Given that, he’s better off pursuing ‘old Tory’ policies, whether you want to call it right wing or whatever, as it’s clear the metropolitan small L liberals he was chasing aren’t interested, so he should go for the WWC in the Northern and Midlands marginals who DID vote blue in reasonable numbers last time around

  32. The old Tory campaigns of 2001 and 2005 weren’t successful at winning northern and midlands WWC marginal. Whatever they choose to do in 2015 it will most likely be an exercise in damage limitation.

  33. Cameron succeeded too well in certain seats. For example the Tories didn’t need to win constituencies like Cannock Chase, Leicestershire NW, Derbyshire S, Tamworth as easily as they did. A few hundred majority would have been okay instead of 3, 4, 7 thousand. But at the same time they failed by a few hundred in other seats like Wirral South, Southampton Itchen, Wells.

  34. What is it with the f***ing predictive text on this site.

    Every time I type marginals it changes it automatically to marginal

  35. Is it the site? All this time I thought it was the browser.

  36. LOL maybe you’re right. Sorry Anthony.

  37. Prediction for 2015-
    Milliband (Labour)- 59%
    Conservative- 16%
    UKIP- 9%
    Liberal Democrat- 7%
    English Democrats- 4%
    BNP- 3%
    Others- 2%

  38. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to suggest that UKIP could come second here if they are at the upper end of expectations generally. Neither Con nor LD have much natural support here.

  39. ‘Given that, he’s better off pursuing ‘old Tory’ policies, whether you want to call it right wing or whatever, as it’s clear the metropolitan small L liberals he was chasing aren’t interested, so he should go for the WWC in the Northern and Midlands marginals who DID vote blue in reasonable numbers last time around’

    But many of these voters have been badly hit by the recession and only voted Tory because they were sick to the back teeth of Labour.

    Even if the Tories do adopt a core vote strategy I don’t imagine that many working class Northerners will be voting for them

    Cameron did indeed fail to win over the type of metropoitan middle class voters his modernisation program was aimed at, but such voters aren’t stupid and if Labour can’t come up with some solid ideas as to how they will improve public services and stop the squeeze on people’s living standards when there’s no money to spend, they won;t be flocking in droves to re-elect Labour

    I’m someone who was willing to give the coalition the benefit of the doubt for the first couple of years as they tried to clear up the mess they inherited, before it became painfully evident that ths is arguably they are the most out of touch administation since the war led by people – from both parties – who have never had to live in the real world

    But that it no way means I’ll be voting Labour in 2015 – not at the moment anyway – and I’m sure there’s many others who have yet how to decide how to cast their votes

    I’m sure enough hardline Tory campaign like 2001 would help persuade them

  40. So you won’t vote tory or LD, you won’t vote labour and given your very moderate stances I can’t imagine UKIP or the greens appealing.

  41. Here are Labour’s 10 worst results in 1997-
    1. Newbury (5.5%)
    2. Christchurch (6.9%)
    3. Harrogate and Knaresborough (8.7%)
    4. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (9.1%)
    5. North Cornwall (9.4%)
    6. South West Surrey (9.4%)
    7. North Devon (9.8%)
    8. Cheltenham (10.1%)
    9. North Dorset (10.2%)
    10. North East Fife (10.3%)

  42. Do these idiots think these cards impress people:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12041153

    Why can’t they use a photo/painting of their constituency with snowmen, robins, carol singers or such like.

  43. Is this a possible scenario in 2015…….?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&TVCON=4&LAB=35&TVLAB=4&LIB=13&TVLIB=3&UKIP=14&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=–Show+all–&minorparties=Y

    I also lost nearly 20 kilos in a year between Mid 2011 and Mid 2012 through self discipline.

  44. @richard

    No I don’t. I hate Public Relations as much as you (and have some time for your views on personal debt),

    And I will spell my general views out again/now (this is what I honestly think) –

    Crudely speaking I think my life is the reverse of Pete Whitehead’s perhaps. Although my only month at a private school in 2004 went badly wrong because my neurological condition was not treated in hospital in time. I also got 2 good advanced highers at Broughmuir High School in 2006 which is like the equivalent of Haverstock.

  45. How am I NOT similar to Ed Miliband as a person then……….?

    1. got Bs in Advanced Highers at Maths and German at Boroughmuir High School and an A at Higher Physics in 2006

    1. My Dad is an academic Historian who stays in North Islington when he goes to the British Library

    2. I don’t prejudge people and jump to instant conclusions.

    3. I’m a recluse who doesn’t have charisma

    4. I don’t like short term ego trippers.

    5. I don’t like editors having so much power within individual newspapers.

    6. My dad goes to medieval conferences in Leeds every year

    7. It is also interesting how Miliband started his role aa ECC secretary at the same time I entered a Geography degree at Edinburgh University when I was 20. I also went to energy lectures on carbon capture storage and did a course called sustainability, society and environment in 2009.

    8. I’m happy to continually educate various posters about psepholoigcal matters on this site so they don’t make the same mistakes over and over and again but I am continually ignored.

    9. I know full well how the minds of people such as Pete Whitehead, Lbernard, Tim Jones, Hemmelig, Barnaby work because I have read this site for the past few years and they seem to enjoy saying the same things again and again and again etc (which I find incredibly boring).

    10. every treats me with suspicion all the time.

    11. I am neutral about the monarchy and have completed my Dofe Gold award

  46. I know the signs of mental illness very well, having had an uncle who became a schizophrenic and eventually ended up murdering someone.

    Go and get some help mate.

  47. I am concerned about A Brown. If you have any problems mate I know how you feel, and I feel as frustrated as you do about a lot of things so don’t worry, you’re not alone, there are always people who can support you.

  48. My uncle refused to get help and now he is serving a 12 year jail sentence. It’s very important to catch and control mental illness early on.

  49. I think A Brown will be able to speak for himself but I can full-well understand why he may think that a site such as this is his best way to air any grievances. So when he makes predictions I would personally choose to encourage him doing it, as it saddens me whenever he gets rebuked by certain posters for not making the predictions they would have made. This site rarely goes past the Comments Policy, but you must feel that you are entitled to Free Speech, quite regardless of what others may say in response. So A Brown I support you sir, and please keep posting if it helps you.

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