Doncaster North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7235 (18.3%)
Labour: 20708 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 1005 (2.5%)
Green: 757 (1.9%)
UKIP: 8928 (22.6%)
TUSC: 258 (0.7%)
Loony: 162 (0.4%)
Others: 448 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 11780 (29.8%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.

Main population centres: Mexborough, Adwick le Street, Bentley, Carcroft, Moorends, Askern, Stainforth.

Profile: The more rural northern part of Doncaster borough, studded with former pit towns and villages. This is a traditional mining seat but most of the collieries are now gone, bringing with it the strains of deprivation and unemployment and the slow transition from pit villages to commuter towns for Doncaster and Barnsley. Coal continues to be mined at Hatfield, one of the few remaining coal mines operating in Yorkshire, and a new carbon-capture coal fired power station is planned in the area.

Politics: Like other South Yorkshire mining seats Doncaster North is a solid Labour seat. At a local level Doncaster`s political history is more interesting. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.


Current MP
ED MILIBAND (Labour) Born 1969, St Pancras, younger brother of David Miliband. Educated at Haverstock Comprehensive and Oxford University. Former Treasury advisor. First elected as MP for Doncaster North in 2005. Parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet Office from 2006-2007, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster with responsibility for the next manifesto 2007-2008, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change 2008-2010, Leader of the Opposition 2010-2015. Miliband became leader of the Labour party in 2010,defeating his own brother for the leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8728 (21%)
Lab: 19637 (47%)
LDem: 6174 (15%)
BNP: 2818 (7%)
Oth: 4126 (10%)
MAJ: 10909 (26%)
2005*
Con: 4875 (15%)
Lab: 17531 (56%)
LDem: 3800 (12%)
BNP: 1506 (5%)
Oth: 3866 (12%)
MAJ: 12656 (40%)
2001
Con: 4601 (15%)
Lab: 19788 (63%)
LDem: 3323 (11%)
UKIP: 725 (2%)
Oth: 2926 (9%)
MAJ: 15187 (48%)
1997
Con: 5906 (15%)
Lab: 27843 (70%)
LDem: 3369 (8%)
Oth: 1181 (3%)
MAJ: 21937 (55%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK FLETCHER (Conservative) Educated at Ridgewood Comprehensive School and Cambridge University.
EDWARD MILIBAND (Labour) See above.
PENNY BAKER (Liberal Democrat) Sheffield councillor 2007-2011 and since 2012.
KIM PARKINSON (UKIP) Born 1953, Doncaster. Educated at Nottingham University. Business consultant.
PETER KENNEDY (Green) Educated at Bridgewater High School and Sheffield University.
DAVID ALLEN (English Democrat) Born Doncaster. Former sales manager. Contested South Yorkshire police election 2012.
MARY JACKSON (TUSC) Advice worker.
NICK THE FLYING BRICK (Loony) , real name Nick Delves. Educated at Cheltenham Arts College. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008, Derbyshire Dales 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election, Newark 2014 by-election. Shadow minister for abolition of gravity.
Links
Comments - 605 Responses on “Doncaster North”
  1. Adam- I couldn’t disagree more. This group of people- C1/ C2’s- couldn’t give a toss about the supposed tax revenue of the bankers. This is the problem with the widening gap in income equality- as groups such as bankers start being seen as an unreachable elite, so calls to tax them more and ‘bash them’ become more and more popular with other sections of society.

  2. I agree with you Edward about difference between the 50p tax rate and non doms, it’s not really as aspirational issue for the vast majority of people. But abolishing non dom status could send out the message that wealthy people aren’t welclme in Britain, that we see them simply as a source of tax revenues and not as real people, and that we’d rather they go and live (and pay tax) elsewhere.

    And I don’t like how Ed Millibabd is now talking about non dom status making Britain look like a tax haven. We’ve got nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to having a competitive tax system. As well as easing extra revenues it shows that we value wealthy people as valid members of society. That’s why I think the introduction of punitive tax rates in France has made the case for the abolishion of the 45% tax rate over here even more urgent.

  3. You are making the mistake of assuming that your own views (which I largely agree with) are shared by a majority of the electorate. They aren’t.

  4. I fully understand that.

  5. I also agree with Adam’s views incidentally. I don’t think I’m being arrogant though I’m assuming that the people we are discussing on this thread do not share his views any more (if they ever did to a meaningful extent). As Hemmelig hinted, bankers etc were only ever tolerated by this group when they weren’t seen as a ‘big issue’. Now they are seen as a completely legitimate target of vitriol. And if you think this group care about the intricacies of tax revenues etc…forget it. Their attitude will be that it’s not their problem.

  6. whether this is a game-changer remains to be seen. l would however, since some of you have taken the opportunity to bash this policy, like to put on record my support for it. Those who do not abuse the system have nothing to fear from it.

  7. I guess it depends whether you prefer a “fair” tax system which raises less money or a less fair system which raises more. Labour are clearly now in the former group, a big change from the Blair years. It’s an honourable position in terms of social solidarity but it will have big implications for the affordability of the NHS and welfare state if they are going to take this approach on other taxes.

  8. Labour are probably going to put themselves at an advantage by winning over the populist ‘tax the rich’ and ‘banker bashing’ sections of the electorate, but that still doesn’t change the fact that it’s an economically illiterate policy.

    Barnaby, I wouldn’t really call being a non dom abusing the system. There rules are in place for a very good reasons to ensure that tax on earning is only paid in the jurisdiction where it is earnt.

  9. Whether this will be a game changer or not is another matter. It’s an issue most people either don’t care about or have little understanding of.

  10. On blogs like The Guardian, the few times you’ll see praise for the USA is on their strict pursuit of taxing foreign income. From the perspective of having an American wife, my experience is that their system is flawed, deeply unfair, and imposes unreasonable costs and bureaucracy on ordinary people. I really hope the next government doesn’t take us down that route.

  11. And regardless of whether you think effectively taxing people twice for foreign income is fair or not, the fact that we don’t donit gives our tax system a big competative advantage.

    And just to clarify, when I said most people don’t care about this issue, I meant that most people don’t care or dont understand the intricate detailed of tax law, but they do care whether or not this comes across as a ‘tax the rich’ issue.

  12. The debate on the 40% tax threshold hasn’t started yet – !

  13. It’s admirable (from a Campaign Group stance) but flawed as HH says. I’m also surprised Miliband wants to concentrate on the details of tax law given the deed of variation of his late father’s Will ie retrospective tax avoidance. Balls and Miliband clearly have different views on a few taxes.

  14. Likely 2nd place for UKIP here. In 2010, the BNP and English Democrats combined polled 12%, so UKIP should pick up the bulk of this.

    Labour: 48%
    UKIP: 28%
    Conservative: 14%
    Liberal Democrat: 6%
    Others: 4%

  15. I know Frederic has asked it some time ago. Re: who is Miliband’s local agent.

    The Notice of Election Agents has been published and his agent is Christopher Taylor who is also his office manager.

  16. Labour Hold. 19,000 majority.

  17. Thanks, Andrea. I am sorry to be belated in seeing this as I have been largely distracted from posting over the last couple of weeks.

    It seems to me that three things could happen here. Firstly, Miliband’s majority could soar because of a leadership effect (like for instnace John Major in HUntingdon in 1992). Secondly, Miliband could get a run of the mill result. Thirdly, MIlband could get a bad result because of his lack of local connections, because Doncaster is moving comparatively away from Labour demographically and thirdly because of Labour problems locally for instance in relation to local services for children. Which is likely to happen?

    I did discuss in a number of posts whether Miliband was vulnerable to a “decapitation strategy”. The answer came out that the seat was too safe for that, and anyway the targetters would have had to be UKIP, who have not been going for it. However, it is possible that there could be an anti-Labour effect rather like Ed Balls’ Morley and Outwood last time.

    The general moral, regardless of party, is that leaders should not neglect their own back yards.

  18. The voters of Donny North knew that Miliband was not local in 2005 and 2010 and quite clearly did not care. Contrary to stereotype, most people in Yorkshire are not psychotically parochial.

  19. How about this for a prediction: Miliband stands down as MP for this seat in a few months’ time, Farage stands as UKIP candidate, Farage wins the seat…

  20. Interesting suggestion. I can see this being perfectly winnable in a by election situation. Whilst it’s safe, it’s not ultra safe compared to places like Bootle etc.

  21. A pretty disappointing result for Miliband, increasing his vote only from 19,637 to 20,708.

  22. Some election facts:

    Labour polled more votes than the LDs in 561 constituencies. The LDs polled more votes than Labour in 70 seats.

    The LDs outpoll Labour by more than 10,000 votes in just 23 seats.

    Labour outpolled the LDs by more than 10,000 votes in 368 divisions; by more than 20,000 votes in 93 constituencies.

    UKIP polled more votes than the LDs in 490 constituencies. The LDs more than UKIP in 123.

    UKIP polled more votes than Labour in 106 seats out of 613 where they both stood.

    UKIP polled more votes than the Conservatives in 61 constituencies out of 623 where both stood.

  23. “How about this for a prediction: Miliband stands down as MP for this seat in a few months’ time, Farage stands as UKIP candidate, Farage wins the seat…”

    Democracy – Miliband won’t stand downas an MP anytime soon as he’s still relatively young. He’ll certainly be in the next Labour cabinet when they win again.

  24. It wasn’t my suggestion actually. I agree that its unlikely to happen but it would certainly be interesting.

  25. George Eaton in the New Statesman thinks there’s a terrible conspiracy at work to cheat Labour of the next election by basing the new constituencies on electorates rather than population.

    Unfortunately for George, he doesn’t seem to know that the Boundary Commission has always based its reviews on electorates rather than population.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/how-tories-are-trying-make-it-impossible-labour-win-again

  26. Yes, but there is a case for basing it on population, particularly since the census now asks about citizenship. The USA does it that way for example, redistricting after each census.

    The Conservatives have been banging on falsely outraged about how the electoral system is biased against them, when in fact under-registration in many Labour voting areas at least balances out the smaller seats. Since the big move out of cities has now ceased, relative population change is smaller now than it has been.

    Finally one major effect of individual registration will be to clean off the multiple entries on electoral registers, which has long been a factor counteracting under-registration. (As a young man and a mobile private renter, I might be registered in 3 places one year, and none the next).

    And don’t lets even talk about all the people who have emigrated and still have a vote on services they don’t receive and taxes they don’t pay.

    The electoral system is likely to be substantially biased in favour of the Conservatives in future, not that you will get any of them to acknowledge it. Once again they seem to successfully input a false narrative into public consciousness.

  27. The crux of Eaton’s argument was that there was going to be a change in the way the calculations are made. In fact there are no plans for such a change. A pretty big mistake for a top journalist to make.

  28. But not that surprising really – the standard of political journalism is very low now.

  29. The “big picture” is all that matters these days. Details and fact-checking are for anoraks.

  30. Except that these ‘big stories’ are often incredibly trivial

  31. “The undoing of Ed Miliband – and how Labour lost the election

    It was Labour’s most stunning defeat since 1983. This exclusive account, based on unique access to the party leader’s closest aides, tells the inside story of what went wrong”:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/03/undoing-of-ed-miliband-and-how-labour-lost-election

  32. AndyJS

    Thanks. I had read the piece. It’s excellent. It was a stunning defeat for labour.

  33. I think we knew all along, that is the sort of person who actually is a fan of Ed Miliband.
    It’s a long way from Tamworth, Burton, Nuneaton, Swindon, Hastings, Stockton South.

    Even Richmond and Twickenham.

    What an utter plonker.

  34. In my view, the main problem with Ed Miliband is that he had only been an MP five years when he becaome leader and he had not acquired the expeirence, and toughness to cope. Given this,, from amongst their four current leadership candidates Labour would be far from daft to choose Jeremy Corbyn, despite the various beyond-the-pale types, from both the left and the right,, who are muscling in on the campaign.

    My guess is that Miliband wil stay on until the next General Election and then retire. Having a by-election would rake up the past too much and would be a hostage to fortune, particulaly given current Labour turmoil.

    I posted extensively on this seat about whtehr UKIP could pull off a shock. The consenus was that they were too far behind. Even though they came second, this still appearsm to be the case: 19% behind is a long way.

    Milibnad’s immediate sucessor should be OK for the immediate future, in this seat or a redistriubted one based on it. However,, this seat and neigbouring ones could be drifting away from Labour as the coal-mining industry fades into hiistory. Palyhing a long gsme, at some point Labour could go down to defeat.

  35. Frederic,

    David Cameron had only been an MP for 4 years when he became leader of the Tories.

  36. Very strange Doncaster voting remain while Broxtowe and Canterbury voting leave lol

  37. Oh sorry Doncaster did vote leave ha I thought it was a bit strange lol

  38. This is just a bit of fun but I’ve been wondering If in some mad hypothetical world the country knew what we know now how many 2015 Tory voters would have voted Lab instead?

    The business community especially must be effing furious with itself that it laid into Milliband’s package of moderate social democratic reforms so much when they now have the choice between Corbyn’s much more radical agenda and May’s package of xenophobia that’s literally causing some in the business world to weep. Maybe the likes of HH could weigh in on this but surely there are many Tories that with hindsight kinda wished they’d bit the bullet and went with Mill over the situation we find ourselves in now?

  39. I’m sure there would have been as many, if not more, socially conservative Labour supporters – particularly the third of them who subsequently voted to leave the EU – who would have switched the other way.

    In fairness to businesses, they did know that a Tory government would call a referendum, which, even had it gone in the establishment’s favour, was always going to introduce uncertainty and division. So it’s not like they were completely taken by surprise.

    I think the biggest change in British politics over the past ten years has been the change in attitudes towards businesses. Before the crash, respect towards businesses was taken as given on both sides of the debate – whereas now we are seeing both the Tories and Labour touting their own brands of protectionism. There are a few politicians still trying to do their best to fly the flag for businesses – Phillip Hammond and perhaps Sadiq Khan – but being pro-business is almost a dirty word in the current climate.

    Paradoxically there are more businesses than ever before, and in particular a huge number of self-employed. It doesn’t seem like anyone is giving them a voice at the moment.

  40. Having spoken to 2015 Tory voters and even worked for a marketing company that wrote extensively about the positives of last years budget. The impression I have is that it was individual policies that appealed to people like; Help to Buy, EU Referendum, etc. People cared more about the issues facing them. I didn’t meet a single person who said to me, ‘I’m voting Tory but I’m not too sure on this EU Referendum.

  41. Business, just like David Cameron didn’t have a problem wth the referendum because they thought they would win it.

    Whoops.

    They bl00dy should well be kicking themselves.

  42. [email protected] I think the two issues in England (outside London) that helped the Conservatives win a majority were –

    1) Offering an EU Referendum (as you say).
    2) But also capitalising on the rise of the SNP and fear amongst some English voters of an Lab/ SNP coalition.

  43. Rivers10 – I think the only polling has been of 2015 Labour voters who now wouldn’t, rather than Tories.

    For obvious reasons.

  44. Thanks for the stats, Andy JS.

    I’ll remember the UKIP v LD stat the next time I meet an earnestly self righteous LD!

  45. Democracy – true (both Miliband & DC were inexperienced newish MPs).

    FS is right.

    Maybe that’s why both DM & DC failed to get a majority at their first attempt as Leader.

  46. Poor Mil, then again the US media are even ore useless than our own so hardly surprising

  47. *more

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