Doncaster North
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7235 (18.3%)
Labour: 20708 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 1005 (2.5%)
Green: 757 (1.9%)
UKIP: 8928 (22.6%)
TUSC: 258 (0.7%)
Loony: 162 (0.4%)
Others: 448 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 11780 (29.8%)
Category: Very safe Labour seat
Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.
Main population centres: Mexborough, Adwick le Street, Bentley, Carcroft, Moorends, Askern, Stainforth.
Profile: The more rural northern part of Doncaster borough, studded with former pit towns and villages. This is a traditional mining seat but most of the collieries are now gone, bringing with it the strains of deprivation and unemployment and the slow transition from pit villages to commuter towns for Doncaster and Barnsley. Coal continues to be mined at Hatfield, one of the few remaining coal mines operating in Yorkshire, and a new carbon-capture coal fired power station is planned in the area.
Politics: Like other South Yorkshire mining seats Doncaster North is a solid Labour seat. At a local level Doncaster`s political history is more interesting. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.
| Con: | 8728 (21%) |
| Lab: | 19637 (47%) |
| LDem: | 6174 (15%) |
| BNP: | 2818 (7%) |
| Oth: | 4126 (10%) |
| MAJ: | 10909 (26%) |
| Con: | 4875 (15%) |
| Lab: | 17531 (56%) |
| LDem: | 3800 (12%) |
| BNP: | 1506 (5%) |
| Oth: | 3866 (12%) |
| MAJ: | 12656 (40%) |
| Con: | 4601 (15%) |
| Lab: | 19788 (63%) |
| LDem: | 3323 (11%) |
| UKIP: | 725 (2%) |
| Oth: | 2926 (9%) |
| MAJ: | 15187 (48%) |
| Con: | 5906 (15%) |
| Lab: | 27843 (70%) |
| LDem: | 3369 (8%) |
| Oth: | 1181 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 21937 (55%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/842705898187472897
Tories have announced George Jabbour, 35 as their candidate for the Doncaster Mayoral election.
He certainly gets about!
He’s Syrian, came to the UK a decade ago. Became a British citizen in 2011 and is a member of the Conservative Christian Fellowship.
Since then he’s stood several times including in Inverclyde at the General Election, Belfast South in last month’s NI Assembly election, as well as campaigning in Copeland and speaking at Conservative Association AGMs in Sunderland and Bromsgrove.
I can only assume that CCHQ are pushing him as a candidate as they sometimes do with future MPs. Either that or he has more money than sense – but at least he appears to be putting in the effort (unlike Robert Atkins who is infamous for his photo ops and then leaving after 2 minutes).
Another seat could be fall in June. Would be a massive shock but it is just about possible.
Ed Miliband’s false claim in his leaflet that he’s voted for a Brexit deal 9 times, as reported by the local press, has not gone down well here.
It was already in MRP’s predicted top 5 seats for Brexit Party, and this will galvanise those Lab leave voters to switch parties even more.
How much below his predicted 44% could Ed fall in the light of this?
Could be shock defeat for Ed Milliband.
If so 2024 will be another 1987/2001 – governing party only losing a few surprise gains. and not much else.
Doubt it. Split right-of-centre vote likely to keep him safe.
Probably Polltroll – but it partly depends on how widely the following two things are reported in time in the constituency IMO:
1. The ‘scandal’ of Ed’s leaflets – trust issues are big things, esp when a lot of WWC aren’t exactly huge fans of Corbyn already.
2. Whether it’s clear to tactical Tory voters that BxP are showing as ahead of Tories in this seat, as I suspect more of them would more readily switch to BxP than the other way round, i.e. Cons ceiling is probably lower in this seat than BxP as I suspect many of BxP supporters would be v reticent to ever vote Tory here.
Apologies just checked MRP and I remembered incorrectly – the projected vote shares were:
Lab 44
BxP 19
Cons 29
so Cons were a fair bit ahead of BxP – though given this was before the ‘scandal’ broke it’s not too impossible to see Tories taking this on eg 34% of the vote.
I think MRP is updated later this week – the gap narrowed in the most recent You Gov poll which means an update could narrow the predicted Tory majority.
He’ll still win imo even though might fall to low 40s%. If voting on looks though he may lose heavily! It’s a bit sexist but the Tory candidate here must be the prettiest PPC in the country.
Well that won’t hurt amongst WWC males no doubt. . .
And that’s the demographic most switching away from Labour.
Yes that was my point 🙂
Whilst most won’t actually meet her in person, I suppose anyone who sees her leaflets will see her picture so that would be a fair few.
Comments from WWC males may put their partners off voting Tory though. . .
Naturally, I had to check out Ms Sale after the comments here. She is indeed strikingly beautiful. May I recommend a Tory vote here, just to improve the aesthetics of the House of Commons. A few of the alright looking ones from the recent intakes have already hit the wall, poor things.