Doncaster North
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7235 (18.3%)
Labour: 20708 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 1005 (2.5%)
Green: 757 (1.9%)
UKIP: 8928 (22.6%)
TUSC: 258 (0.7%)
Loony: 162 (0.4%)
Others: 448 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 11780 (29.8%)
Category: Very safe Labour seat
Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.
Main population centres: Mexborough, Adwick le Street, Bentley, Carcroft, Moorends, Askern, Stainforth.
Profile: The more rural northern part of Doncaster borough, studded with former pit towns and villages. This is a traditional mining seat but most of the collieries are now gone, bringing with it the strains of deprivation and unemployment and the slow transition from pit villages to commuter towns for Doncaster and Barnsley. Coal continues to be mined at Hatfield, one of the few remaining coal mines operating in Yorkshire, and a new carbon-capture coal fired power station is planned in the area.
Politics: Like other South Yorkshire mining seats Doncaster North is a solid Labour seat. At a local level Doncaster`s political history is more interesting. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.
| Con: | 8728 (21%) |
| Lab: | 19637 (47%) |
| LDem: | 6174 (15%) |
| BNP: | 2818 (7%) |
| Oth: | 4126 (10%) |
| MAJ: | 10909 (26%) |
| Con: | 4875 (15%) |
| Lab: | 17531 (56%) |
| LDem: | 3800 (12%) |
| BNP: | 1506 (5%) |
| Oth: | 3866 (12%) |
| MAJ: | 12656 (40%) |
| Con: | 4601 (15%) |
| Lab: | 19788 (63%) |
| LDem: | 3323 (11%) |
| UKIP: | 725 (2%) |
| Oth: | 2926 (9%) |
| MAJ: | 15187 (48%) |
| Con: | 5906 (15%) |
| Lab: | 27843 (70%) |
| LDem: | 3369 (8%) |
| Oth: | 1181 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 21937 (55%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Another seat could be fall in June. Would be a massive shock but it is just about possible.
Ed Miliband’s false claim in his leaflet that he’s voted for a Brexit deal 9 times, as reported by the local press, has not gone down well here.
It was already in MRP’s predicted top 5 seats for Brexit Party, and this will galvanise those Lab leave voters to switch parties even more.
How much below his predicted 44% could Ed fall in the light of this?
Could be shock defeat for Ed Milliband.
If so 2024 will be another 1987/2001 – governing party only losing a few surprise gains. and not much else.
Doubt it. Split right-of-centre vote likely to keep him safe.
Probably Polltroll – but it partly depends on how widely the following two things are reported in time in the constituency IMO:
1. The ‘scandal’ of Ed’s leaflets – trust issues are big things, esp when a lot of WWC aren’t exactly huge fans of Corbyn already.
2. Whether it’s clear to tactical Tory voters that BxP are showing as ahead of Tories in this seat, as I suspect more of them would more readily switch to BxP than the other way round, i.e. Cons ceiling is probably lower in this seat than BxP as I suspect many of BxP supporters would be v reticent to ever vote Tory here.
Apologies just checked MRP and I remembered incorrectly – the projected vote shares were:
Lab 44
BxP 19
Cons 29
so Cons were a fair bit ahead of BxP – though given this was before the ‘scandal’ broke it’s not too impossible to see Tories taking this on eg 34% of the vote.
I think MRP is updated later this week – the gap narrowed in the most recent You Gov poll which means an update could narrow the predicted Tory majority.
He’ll still win imo even though might fall to low 40s%. If voting on looks though he may lose heavily! It’s a bit sexist but the Tory candidate here must be the prettiest PPC in the country.
Well that won’t hurt amongst WWC males no doubt. . .
And that’s the demographic most switching away from Labour.
Yes that was my point 🙂
Whilst most won’t actually meet her in person, I suppose anyone who sees her leaflets will see her picture so that would be a fair few.
Comments from WWC males may put their partners off voting Tory though. . .
Naturally, I had to check out Ms Sale after the comments here. She is indeed strikingly beautiful. May I recommend a Tory vote here, just to improve the aesthetics of the House of Commons. A few of the alright looking ones from the recent intakes have already hit the wall, poor things.
These are the seats from the last election in which the Tories are second, and the Brexit Party vote was bigger than the incumbent party’s majority:
/ Constituency / Winner / Majority / Brexit Party vote
1 / Hartlepool / Lab hold / 3595 / 10603
2 / Doncaster North / Lab hold / 2370 / 8294
3 / Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford / Lab hold / 1276 / 8032
4 / Wentworth and Dearne / Lab hold / 2165 / 7019
5 / Doncaster Central / Lab hold / 2278 / 6842
6 / Easington / Lab hold / 6581 / 6744
7 / Houghton and Sunderland South / Lab hold / 3115 / 6165
8 / Rotherham / Lab hold / 3121 / 6125
9 / Hemsworth / Lab hold / 1180 / 5930
10 / Blaydon / Lab hold / 5531 / 5833
11 / Makerfield / Lab hold / 4740 / 5817
12 / Kingston upon Hull East / Lab hold / 1239 / 5764
13 / Torfaen / Lab hold / 3742 / 5742
14 / Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle / Lab hold / 2856 / 5638
15 / Washington and Sunderland West / Lab hold / 3723 / 5439
16 / Sunderland Central / Lab hold / 2964 / 5047
17 / Chesterfield / Lab hold / 1451 / 4771
18 / Sheffield South East / Lab hold / 4289 / 4478
19 / Stockton North / Lab hold / 1027 / 3907
20 / Stalybridge and Hyde / Lab hold / 2946 / 3591
21 / Worsley and Eccles South / Lab hold / 3219 / 3224
22 / Wansbeck / Lab hold / 814 / 3141
23 / Oldham East and Saddleworth / Lab hold / 1499 / 2980
24 / Dagenham and Rainham / Lab hold / 293 / 2887
25 / Bradford South / Lab hold / 2346 / 2819
26 / Halifax / Lab hold / 2569 / 2813
27 / Alyn and Deeside / Lab hold / 213 / 2678
28 / Warrington North / Lab hold / 1509 / 2626
29 / Newport East / Lab hold / 1992 / 2454
30 / Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (PC hold) / PC hold / 1809 / 2311
31 / Wolverhampton South East / Lab hold / 1235 / 2094
32 / Coventry North West / Lab hold / 208 / 1956
33 / Newport West / Lab hold / 902 / 1727
34 / Coventry South / Lab hold / 401 / 1432
35 / Weaver Vale / Lab hold / 562 / 1380
36 / Bedford / Lab hold / 145 / 896
37 / Warwick and Leamington / Lab hold / 789 / 807
Basically all Labour-held, except one Plaid seat. Number one was Hartlepool, which of course fell last week. This seat – held by Ed Miliband – is second. Third is Yvette Cooper’s seat. Labour better hope there are no further by-elections in these places. The boundary review might carve up a lot of these anyway.