East Devon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25401 (46.4%)
Labour: 5591 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 3715 (6.8%)
UKIP: 6870 (12.6%)
Independent: 13140 (24%)
MAJORITY: 12261 (22.4%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Devon.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
HUGO SWIRE (Conservative) Born 1959, London. Educated at Eton and St Andrews University. Former army officer and director of Sotheby`s. Contested Greenock and Inverclyde 1997. First elected as MP for East Devon in 2001. Shadow culture secretary 2005-2007. Minister of State for Northern Ireland 2010-2012. Minister of State at the Foreign Office since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 25662 (48%)
Lab: 5721 (11%)
LDem: 16548 (31%)
UKIP: 4346 (8%)
Oth: 815 (2%)
MAJ: 9114 (17%)
2005*
Con: 23075 (47%)
Lab: 7598 (15%)
LDem: 15139 (31%)
UKIP: 3035 (6%)
Oth: 400 (1%)
MAJ: 7936 (16%)
2001
Con: 22681 (47%)
Lab: 7974 (17%)
LDem: 14486 (30%)
UKIP: 2696 (6%)
MAJ: 8195 (17%)
1997
Con: 22797 (43%)
Lab: 9292 (18%)
LDem: 15308 (29%)
Oth: 1953 (4%)
MAJ: 7489 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
HUGO SWIRE (Conservative) See above.
STEVE RACE (Labour)
STUART MOLE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Johns School, Leatherhead and Nottingham University. Writer, researcher and former diplomat. Contested Chelmsford F1974, O1974, 1979, 1983, 1987 for the Liberal party.
ANDREW CHAPMAN (UKIP) Born 1947, Wolverhampton. Educated at Denstone College and Goldsmiths College. Retired accountant. Surrey councillor 1985-1989 for the Liberal party.
CLAIRE WRIGHT (Independent)
Links
Comments - 177 Responses on “Devon East”
  1. USA Election prediction (Presidential) The day before 7 November.
    By State and Electoral college, and total.
    Most likely – a credible range either side. (Either candidate could realistically win).
    Apologies format.
    So here goes……

    1st figure
    2016 Democrat Clinton (Forecast)

    2nd figure
    Electoral College Dem 2016

    3rd figure
    Republican Trump (Forecast)

    4th figure
    Electoral College (Rep)
    Next figures are results last time in 2012,
    in another four figures as per order above.
    2012 Democrat – Obama/ Electoral College (Dem) 2012 /2012 Republican – Romney/ Electoral College (Rep) 2012
    Alabama 32.00% – 62.00% 9 38.36% – 60.55% 9
    Alaska 36.00% – 56.00% 3 40.81% – 54.80% 3
    Arizona 43.00% – 51.00% 11 44.59% – 53.65% 11
    Arkansas 35.00% – 58.00% 6 36.88% – 60.57% 6
    California 59.00% 55 37.00% – 60.24% 55 37.12% –
    Colorado 48.00% 9 47.00% – 51.49% 9 46.13% –
    Connecticut 57.00% 7 38.00% – 58.06% 7 40.73% –
    Delaware 58.00% 3 37.00% – 58.61% 3 39.98% –
    District of ColumbiaD.C. 89.00% 3 6.00% – 90.91% 3 7.28% –
    Florida 47.00% R GAIN * 48.00% 29 50.01% 29 49.13% –
    Georgia 44.00% – 51.00% 16 45.48% – 53.30% 16
    Hawaii 68.00% 4 28.00% – 70.55% 4 27.84% –
    Idaho 30.00% – 63.00% 4 32.62% – 64.53% 4
    Illinois 54.00% 20 42.00% – 57.60% 20 40.73% –
    Indiana 39.00% – 57.00% 11 43.93% – 54.13% 11
    Iowa 49.00% 6 45.00% – 51.99% 6 46.18% –
    Kansas 34.00% – 60.00% 6 37.99% – 59.71% 6
    Kentucky 36.00% – 61.00% 8 37.80% – 60.49% 8
    Louisiana 40.00% – 56.00% 8 40.58% – 57.78% 8
    Maine (at-large) 54.00% 2 38.00% – 56.27% 2 40.98% –
    Maine, 1st 57.00% 1 35.00% – 59.57% 1 38.18% –
    Maine, 2nd 50.00% 1 41.00% – 52.94% 1 44.38% –
    Maryland 60.00% 10 34.00% – 61.97% 10 35.90% –
    Massachusetts 58.00% 11 36.00% – 60.65% 11 37.51% –
    Michigan 48.00% 16 47.00% – 54.21% 16 44.71% –
    Minnesota 51.00% 10 45.00% – 52.65% 10 44.96% –
    Mississippi 39.00% – 57.00% 6 43.79% – 55.29% 6
    Missouri 41.00% – 54.00% 10 44.38% – 53.76% 10
    Montana 37.00% – 56.00% 3 41.70% – 55.35% 3
    Nebraska (at-large) 34.00% – 62.00% 2 38.03% – 59.80% 2
    Nebraska, 1st 37.00% – 60.00% 1 40.95% – 57.59% 1
    Nebraska, 2nd 40.00% – 55.00% 1 45.78% – 52.95% 1
    Nebraska, 3rd 22.00% – 72.00% 1 27.94% – 70.56% 1
    Nevada 51.00% 6 42.00% – 52.36% 6 45.68% –
    New Hampshire 53.00% 4 42.00% – 51.98% 4 46.40% –
    New Jersey[121] 54.00% 14 40.00% – 58.38% 14 40.59% –
    New Mexico 51.00% 5 39.00% – 52.99% 5 42.84% –
    New York[122] 62.00% 29 33.00% – 63.35% 29 35.17% –
    North Carolina 47.00% – 48.00% 15 48.35% – 50.39% 15
    North Dakota 34.00% – 59.00% 3 38.69% – 58.32% 3
    Ohio 48.00% R GAIN * 49.00% 18 50.67% 18 47.69% –
    Oklahoma 30.00% – 68.00% 7 33.23% – 66.77% 7
    Oregon 51.00% 7 51.00% – 54.24% 7 42.15% –
    Pennsylvania 49.00% 20 47.00% – 51.97% 20 46.59% –
    Rhode Island 62.00% 4 31.00% – 62.70% 4 35.24% –
    South Carolina 40.00% – 55.00% 9 44.09% – 54.56% 9
    South Dakota 34.00% – 59.00% 3 39.87% – 57.89% 3
    Tennessee 37.00% – 60.00% 11 39.08% – 59.48% 11
    Texas 40.00% – 58.00% 38 41.38% – 57.17% 38
    Utah 22.00% – 74.00% 6 24.75% – 72.79% 6
    Vermont 68.00% 3 29.00% – 66.57% 3 30.97% –
    Virginia 51.00% 13 44.00% – 51.16% 13 47.28% –
    Washington 54.00% 12 39.00% – 56.16% 12 41.29% –
    West Virginia 31.00% – 64.00% 5 35.54% – 62.30% 5
    Wisconsin[124] 49.00% 10 46.00% – 52.83% 10 45.89% –
    Wyoming 26.00% – 70.00% 3 27.82% – 68.64% 3
    U.S. Total (2016 forecast – 285 Dem vs 253 Rep) (Last time 332 v 206)

  2. Sorry but that is a horror show to look at. Really odd and unclear format with so much needless detail.

    That said, your final tally looks in the right area, although I see Clinton hanging on in Florida.

  3. I’m not gonna lie I can’t decipher that at all

  4. MRNAMELESS: does that mean you have to pay US taxes even though you don’t live there? I know a lot of people are renouncing the US citizenship because of that bizarre law, which I don’t think any other country in the world has.

  5. BT – I said the VPs were more extreme than the Presidential candidates. Not extremists.

    Merely going from what they said in interviews and their held views.

    Kaine is more liberal than Clinton and Pence is more conservative than Trump.

    But cos Trump & Clinton shout louder many seem to think they’re more right and left wing respectively than their Parties. But they’re not.

  6. MrN – interesting. I didn’t know that about the new all-postal ballot there. Is that the only State?

    Although I recall all of the great predictions of it boosting turnout here in the pilots in 2003 and 2004.

    It did increase turnout, but not massively, ie in Liverpool it went from 22% (2003) to 33% (2004). ie two thirds still threw the ballot papers in the bin!

    In fact it fell in the NE pilots of 2004 where signatures and DOB checks were added from the 2003 all postal pilots.

  7. (Presumably the final) 2 nationwide polls out:

    The LA Times has Trump 5% ahead.

    NBC has Hillary 5% ahead.

  8. Andy JS,

    I have to file a tax return every year, but it’s really not that onerous. The threshold for foreign earned income is $95,000 a year, so I’ve never had to pay anything.

    It would be a bit self-defeating to renounce my citizenship, since I had to go for a rather annoying trip to the embassy to get the passport and documents in the first place!

    Lancs Observer,

    As far as I’ve heard it’s the only one – it was introduced in 2013. While going from 22% to 33% isn’t an immense turnout boost, that’s still a 50% increase!

    I suppose if you can’t be bothered going to a polling station, shaving 45 seconds off by making you go to a postbox instead wouldn’t be that much of an incentive.

  9. True.

    In fact filling out the latest postal votes here (reading, detaching, signing, adding DOB, envelope A in B etc) would take longer than going in person.

    Do all States have photo ID rules to vote in person?

    I realise each State likes to have their own different rules for elections, hence early voting, registration on the day etc.

  10. No, that’s only some states, in which I don’t think Colorado is included. There’ll be a full table somewhere.

    The fact each state can set its own voting rules seems bizarre to me. Fine for internal elections for governor or state legislatures, but when electing federal representatives, surely the rules should be uniform to ensure the same vote has the same weight in each place?

    But then, if you go down that rabbit hole regarding the Presidential election system, you’ll never get out.

  11. Mr Nameless

    Please take my warning – if whatever you are submitting to the US tax authorities isn’t “onerous” you are almost certainly not fully complying with the law. Or at the very least, that will become the case when you start to earn a reasonable salary, own property and have kids. I can assure you that you’ll need to get an accountant to do your return for you at that point. My wife doesn’t work any more but it still costs us thousands in accountants fees every year. As Andy says, this is causing many to renounce their citizenship.

    I should add that HMRC are considering introducing this mad system for British citizens as well.

  12. Yeah, I’ve got my eye on it. It hasn’t really been an issue while I’ve been a student and my income was effectively zero, but I’m trying to read up and be a bit careful now I’m working.

  13. ”Re Colorado I think Clinton is a shoe in there. That state is pretty much decided in three suburban Denver counties (Adams, Arapahoe and Jefferson)”

    @Rivers well the Republicans can lose all three and still win Colorado (look at 2014 Senate) but they can’t afford to lose them all by convincing margins. My guess is Trump will woefully underperform in the Denver suburbs and in the Republican bastion of Colorado Springs (El Paso County) which will indeed sink him there.

    ”With a much more moderate Clinton as an option rather than the perceived “extremist” Obama the white middle classes in these counties”

    This is a completely incorrect way of thinking. People who think of Obama like that virtually all hate the Democratic Party full stop, think Clinton is 4 more years of Obama and would never vote for her or any other democrat in a million years. Plus these are not the kind of voters you find in the Denver suburbs anyway more like rural Missouri or West Virginia.

  14. ‘Kaine is more liberal than Clinton and Pence is more conservative than Trump.’

    Kaine seem much more liberal than I thought – as governor of Virginia, a state with a very active death penalty, he was only too happy to send people o the electric chair despite claiming to be “personally opposed” to all executions

    Which is the same position of the Clintons – happy to support something they disagree with so long as they don’t lose votes

    ‘This is a completely incorrect way of thinking. People who think of Obama like that virtually all hate the Democratic Party full stop, think Clinton is 4 more years of Obama and would never vote for her or any other democrat in a million years. Plus these are not the kind of voters you find in the Denver suburbs anyway more like rural Missouri or West Virginia.’

    Totally correct

    Also, despite the hostility of arguably the most right-wing Congress in the history of the US, Obama ran a pretty centrist administration. He didn’t turn out to be this liberal extremist his Republican opponents said he’s be when he first won office in 2008

    Obviously things like Obamacare, and his interventionist economic policy, were the sort of things Republicans would oppose on ideological grounds, but in 2012 the only ones saying he was a European-style socialist were his Republican opponents who would never vote for him anyhow, so there’s little evidence that Obama’s perceived liberalism suppressed the Democratic vote in any way

    Had it been him v Trump I think we would almost certainly be looking at a big Democrat win

  15. “Had it been [Obama] v Trump I think we would almost certainly be looking at a big Democrat win”

    I try not to comment too much on US politics because of a lack of knowledge (I understand the mechanics of the system, but I have virtually no insight into what drives Americans to vote the way they do). But it strikes me that whichever party loses the White House could plausibly claim that they would have easily won, had they picked a different candidate.

  16. Well, Devon East is as good a page as any other to discuss US elections. We really need an Off Topic thread but there’s never been one on UKPR unfortunately.

  17. Tim – Obama’s inaction seems to be more of a reason for those coming out to vote against his Party (some for the first time). ie Benghazi, Crimea, ISIS, etc.

    Indeed in a totally White part of PA there was only 1 hand for Hillary.

    There’s a cap, of course, on the number of WWC you can bring out for the first time (as the BNP found here even at their peak of 2008-09). After all some just aren’t registered.

    I suppose the US equivalent would be ‘off gridders’, living rurally. If you don’t won’t the federal Govt to know where you are, you’re hardly likely to register to vote.

    Although I know a few States allow ‘on the day’ voter registration and the Republicans Overseas’ rep on tv even mentioned that faxed ‘write in’ ballots are allowed if you haven’t received your absent vote. All a recipe for legal challenges of course.

    Andy54 – true. Indeed those precise Qs were asked in a poll this week. Romney would have won (v HC) by 10% in 2016 as would Kerry or Sanders (v DT).

  18. Pepps
    “This is a completely incorrect way of thinking…”

    You’re probably right, regardless we seem to be in agreement Trump will tank in Colorado.

  19. Which constituency has the largest number of Americans? I’m assuming it’ll be in London but West Suffolk with RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath might be it.

  20. I did see figures (but only by Country), eg Israel, UK each had 200k+ US voters. There were also 200k+ armed forces voters abroad.

    Shame they can’t vote at the Embassy today as the French did at theirs, but I realise that’d be a security nightmare these days, sadly.

  21. I see the Republicans noted that in early voting in N Carolina:

    African American voting was down 8.5% on 2012.

    But, Caucasion voting was up 22.5%.

    [As well as each State applying and amending their own election laws, I find it extraordinary that in eg the South, some States have just removed lots of polling stations in New Orleans compared with 2012. What’s the justification used – cost?]

  22. ‘I find it extraordinary that in eg the South, some States have just removed lots of polling stations in New Orleans compared with 2012’

    Why so?

    It’s because nowadays even poor Southern states like Louisiana are dominated by Republicans, who every election try and disenfranchise as many Black voters as possible because Black voters are overwhelmingly vote Democrat

    Democrats used to do exactly the same about 50-odd years ago when the situation was reversed (they dominated the South and disenfranchised Blacks who back were more likely to vote Republican, if at all)

  23. I realise that’s the suspicion/allegation, but is it really so blatant and for no other justification or reason?

    Incidentally, a guy whose name I didn’t catch (sorry I don’t know the names of US journos), just noted that turnout is up in he following States: Texas, Florida, PA, Ohio & Minnesota. All of which suffered Islamist terror attacks where people did over the past 18 months.

    Clearly, all are also States with lots of activity, so increased turnout can’t be down to that solely, but it is a reason that could explain the increased White turnout (esp when it’s higher than in both 2008 and 2012 when the opponent was Black).

  24. Lancs
    “I realise that’s the suspicion/allegation, but is it really so blatant and for no other justification or reason?”

    It really is that blatant, its been a sad trend of the Republicans in recent years.

    Two recent examples, one re students in Republican controlled states, they have recently introduced new voter ID laws, issue is that rather than accepting any ID (drivers license, passport ect) the rules stipulate it must be issued by the state said individual is trying to vote in, thus students living in a state while in uni but normally living in another state cant use their drivers license and such have to go through a hugely complicated process of applying for a special voting license enabling them to vote in the state, consequently most just don’t bother.

    A more unforgivable tactic is to outright discourage people from voting (albeit subliminally) During the last mid term elections (at the height of the Ebola crisis) many Republican controlled states distributed leaflets (ONLY in Hispanic or Black neighbourhoods) warning people of the dangers of Ebola and how it can possibly be transmitted at polling stations.The leaflets never explicitly told them not to vote (cos that would be illegal) rather it massively exaggerated the dangers and thus it was clearly an attempt to scare them out of voting.

    Its why I’m so suspicious when similar proposals are brought forward over here, its a slippery slope and before you know it we’re in that mess.

  25. ‘Clearly, all are also States with lots of activity, so increased turnout can’t be down to that solely, but it is a reason that could explain the increased White turnout ‘

    I think Trump was always likely to capitalise massively on the angry white man vote – which whilst being almost exclusively Republican anyhow – also means that people who usually ignore elections take part.

    We saw this with Brexit over here although an increase of the white vote in North Carolina as much as 20% suggests bad news for Clinton

  26. “an increase of the white vote in North Carolina as much as 20% suggests bad news for Clinton”

    It could potentially be an increase in student turnout which would help Clinton but agree its far more likely the “angry white man” coming out in force. If that’s replicated nationally Trump might even win comfortably…

  27. Rivers – thanks.

    “similar proposals are brought forward over here…” – that’s where we disagree. There just aren’t though.

    Sky just showed one polling station where the booths were red, white ad blue and another where the American flag adorned each booth. There was also a charity cake bake sale for local Veterans.

    None of that would ever be allowed here. In part ‘cos people on the Left would object (see the poppy objectors) to anything patriotic or militaristic being displayed inside polling stations. As well as quite rightly objecting ‘cos the flag is the National Front’s emblem on ballot papers.

  28. Lancs
    “There just aren’t though”
    Yet…
    As I said its a slippery slope, the Tories have already proven their willing to go to great lengths to tackle quite minor cases of electoral fraud, breaking what should be the common sense rule of “Does this action disenfranchise more people than it stops fraudulent votes?” In the case of IER it certainly does.

    Whether it be attempting to limit postal voting, IER, stonewalling electronic voting or other reforms designed to boost turnout. Once those actions have taken place its not too big a leap to move onto more ambitious techniques later. Reading Eric Pickle’s latest report you’d think it was written by Jeb Bush.

  29. More Republican electoral shenanigans taking place today. Reports are that the motivation for a piece of anti fraud legislation passed in N Carolina by the Republican governor is now being revealed for what it was.

    The law which stated that in an attempt to combat fraud all voters in polling stations must sign an additional form simply stipulating they are who they say they are and are here to vote was deemed simple and innocent enough and thus it went largely uncommented upon.

    However here we are on election day and in heavily Democratic Durham County (big Black vote in Durham proper and student vote at Duke University) its been revealed that polling stations quickly ran out of said forms and thus cannot allow people to vote, they are instead informing them to come back later alter after they have printed more forms (and we all know that sadly many won’t bother coming back)

    Identical reports coming out of other heavily Democratic areas such as Orange, Guilford and Mecklenburg Counties while no such problems have been reported in the rural Republican counties. One doesn’t have to have a tin foil hat to see what’s going on.

  30. Elsewhere (in Pennsylvania for one) people are reporting that they’re voting Trump in the computerised system only for the vote to come up for Clinton.

    Looks like a lot of stuff is going on in both directions then.

  31. £150m has been bet in the UK on the result.

    This is more than any other previous political event.

    Bookies were still taking bets today unusually.

    Most amusing is Paddy Power who paid out over £1m on a Clinton win last month, but admitted they might now have to pay out on all bets.

    The highest reported bets in the British Isles today were a 25k Euro bet placed on Trump with BoyleSports in Dublin and a £15k bet placed with WHill in the North West.

  32. Paul
    There were reports of similar happenings with the machines in the last two elections, thought they would have solved that by now.

  33. 62% of White voters have voted Trump (exit polls).

  34. Another poor night for the pollsters.

  35. Yes and no.

    I think the media just failed to state that all were within the 3% margin of error.

    I think only that last poll put him clearly ahead.

  36. What a disaster.

    Looks like Trump has over 300 EVs, even if he ultimately losing the popular vote nationally.

  37. Trump said he wouldn’t necessarily concede if it was close, so maybe Hillary Clinton should do the same thing and wait for the recounts to take place, especially if she wins the popular vote.

  38. Sadly I think New Hampshire will be the only one within the 0.5% margin to make it eligible for a recount – worth 4 electoral votes!!

  39. Furthermore, I have suspicions they’ve called Nevada for Clinton too soon, which may add insult to injury later in their night.

  40. “if it was close”

    It isn’t even looking close now though.

    If he stays ahead in those left to finish counting I think he gets 301.

  41. 302 including Maine CD-2 or whatever it’s called?

    306 if he also gets New Hampshire?

  42. I have 307 or 311 if he wins New Hampshire.

  43. Yep 307-311, Nebraska’s 2nd district hasn’t been called yet but I’m pretty sure he’ll win it

  44. Clinton’s campaign manager has just said they’re still holding out for victory.

  45. Hemmelig….

  46. I thought he said to go home as there’d be no speech tonight (BBC’s Katty Kay said they’d told the media today they had to be out by 2am haha)

  47. Clinton conceded by ‘phone 5 minutes ago.

  48. Clinton is going to win the popular vote by perhaps more than a million votes as the votes pile up in California and Washington. Meanwhile she lost many swing states by small margins.

  49. Yes. Bush never truly got over the “illegitimate president” stuff with swathes of the country even after winning the popular vote clearly in 2004, and Clinton will most likely exceed Gore’s lead in the popular vote. Nevertheless the electoral college is there to prevent the big states riding roughshod over the rest and Clinton should have widened her appeal beyond appealing to blue state liberals.

  50. IMO there’s a bit of a difference between a scenario where someone narrowly wins the electoral college while narrowly losing the popular vote as happened in the year 2000, but if Trump gets more than 300 EVCs and Clinton wins the popular vote by more than a million, that’s a slightly different situation to think about.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)