Central Devon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28436 (52.2%)
Labour: 6985 (12.8%)
Lib Dem: 6643 (12.2%)
Green: 4866 (8.9%)
UKIP: 7171 (13.2%)
Independent: 347 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 21265 (39.1%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Devon. The whole of the Mid-Devon council area and parts of Teignbridge, West Devon, and East Devon council areas.

Main population centres: Bovey Tracey, Crediton, Okehampton, Chudleigh, Ashburton, Buckfastleigh.

Profile: A large sprawling rural seat in the centre of Devon, includes parts of four different local authorities. There are no large towns, the population is scattered amongst small market towns and villages. To the south the constituency includes a large part of Dartmoor, including the Okehampton army camp and, at the far southern point of the constituency, Buckfast Abbey - the historic benedictine monastery that is the somewhat surprising source of the tonic wine infamously associated with binge drinking and violence in Scotland`s council estates.

Politics: Central Devon was created for the 2010 election, where it was comfortably won by the Conservatives.


Current MP
MEL STRIDE (Conservative) Born 1961. Educated at Portsmouth Grammar School and Oxford University. Former Entrepreneur. First elected as MP for Central Devon in 2010. Government whip since 2014.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27737 (51%)
Lab: 3715 (7%)
LDem: 18507 (34%)
UKIP: 2870 (5%)
Oth: 1044 (2%)
MAJ: 9230 (17%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MEL STRIDE (Conservative) See above.
LYNNE RICHARDS (Labour)
ALEX WHITE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Warwick University.
JOHN CONWAY (UKIP) Retired tax officer.
ANDY WILLIAMSON (Green)
ARTHUR PRICE (Independent)
Links
Comments - 31 Responses on “Devon Central”
  1. Lib Dems will win here next time, with an 8000 majority, and stupendous momentom.

  2. ”Lib Dems will win here next time, with an 8000 majority, and stupendous momentom.”

    Good to see Gloy back with his usual unwavering optimism intact.

  3. That’s nothing. I predict a Labour majority of 20,000 with Chagford being almost solidly socialist.

  4. This will offset the almost certain Tory gain in Bootle

  5. Further to those predictions, I think the Greens will gain Copeland.

  6. i think the lib dems will win ogmore ha ha

  7. The LDs are more likely to win Llaregyb.

  8. Plaid Cymru have got to be dead certs in East Surrey.

  9. Hell, why not, UKIP gain Belfast West on a 40% swing

  10. And the DUP will definitely gain Rochester and Strood on an 80% swing.

  11. bassetlaw drops john mann and votes for a real left winger

  12. Galloway drops Bradford West and wins Windsor.

  13. UK Polling Report just wouldn’t be the same without Mr Plopwell.

  14. Boris Johnson becomes MP for Mole Valley following a strategic retirement by Sir Paul Beresford.

  15. prediction for 2015-

    con- 48%
    Lib- 25%
    UKIP- 14%
    Lab- 7%
    green- 4%

    A perhaps more realistic prediction compared to the one Mr Plopwell gave us but dammit, the site wouldn’t be worth it without him.

  16. My prediction is-
    Stride (Conservative)- 47%
    Lib Dem- 26%
    Conway (UKIP)- 15%
    Labour- 8%
    Williamson (Green)- 4%

  17. The Liberal Democrat candidate is Alex White.

  18. Pretty young.

  19. Spent a day here 3 weeks ago, getting honey at Buckfast Abbey. Carried out straw poll Buckfastleigh and Credition. A very large seat to try and poll but it does seem the UKIP candidate here, John Conway is very well liked and could very well come in second, a seat to watch it there appears to be a last minute big national swing to UKIP. RESULTS of STRAW POLL

    CON————-44%
    UKIP————24%
    LIB DEMS—-23%
    LAB—————6%
    GREEN———3%

  20. a retired tax officer is bound to be more plopular than an active one. Now, kindly stop spamming this site. You have so far identified the correct winners as it happens, but that hardly requires rocket science. There will not be a dead heat in Aberconwy which will be a reasonably clear Conservative hold.

  21. Conservative Hold. 15,000 maj.

  22. On the local by election front tonight there is the usual eclectic mix, a ward in Fife which NTY UK has already mentioned, a ward in Montgomeryshire which will be the usual independents free for all as is common for rural Wales, what should be a easy Tory hold in St Edmundsbury and what should be an easy Lab hold in Blackburn, all attention though will be focused here in Teignbridge where there is two neighbouring by elections which should be (sorta) interesting.

    Two Tory defences but the Lib Dems will be gunning hard in both, they are surely favourites in marginal Bovey and have an outside chance in next door Chudeleigh.

    As Gloy Plopwell would say “stupendous Momentum!!!”

  23. Lib Dems will win here in 2020 with stupendous momentum.

  24. This thread is very amusing reminds me of an episode of Sorry I Haven’t A Clue

  25. I suspect the Lib Dems will come a decent second here. Qualified momentum.

  26. Well here is tonight’s (this mornings) local by election bonanza.

    Some independant win from another independant in Wales, can’t find the figures and nothing really interesting enough to make me go looking for it again.

    Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife)
    SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
    LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
    CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
    LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
    GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
    Boring but clearly Con fortunes in Scotlandshire continue.

    Higher Croft (Blackburn)
    LAB: 58.2% (+12.1)
    UKIP: 25.0% (-8.3)
    CON: 16.7% (-3.8)
    Boring…

    Moreton Hall (St Edmundsbury)
    IND: 56.0% (+22.4)
    CON: 21.7% (-22.1)
    LDEM: 10.4% (+10.4)
    LAB: 7.2% (-15.4)
    UKIP: 4.8% (+4.8)
    Poor for the Cons, this should have been a simple enough hold though the ward does have a history of electing Independandts.

    Bovey (Teignbridge)
    LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
    CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
    IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
    LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
    UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
    IND: 3.6% (+3.6)
    Interesting but anticipated

    Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
    LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
    CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
    UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
    LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
    Ind(s) and Grn didn’t stand
    Ok impressive on the Libs part…

    Blackdown (Taunton Deane)
    LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)
    CON: 22.5% (-30.4)
    IND: 6.3% (+6.3)
    Other Ind and Grn didn’t stand
    Even by local by election standards that’s quite the Plopweilian swing, another great night for the Libs, very poor for the Tories

  27. Labour got 15,000 votes here, although the Tories increased.

    Looking at how major a hub Exeter is, I wonder whether it’s influence has spread out into the countryside, and particular in Crediton, possibly Ashburton.
    (Although local elections suggest it is still Con LD. )

  28. Yes I noticed this was a very strong Labour performance. 27% and a doubled vote share is extremely good for a mostly rural seat in the south. Demographic change may be making this into a seat more like South West Devon i.e. a more suburban safe Tory seat with Labour naturally in a distant second as opposed to the Lib Dems. However it is worth remembering that they have been squeezed here for generations and this result may partly be a reversion to the mean.

    Labour probably are quite close to their ceiling here though as there are lots of people in seat like this that would never vote for them. Thus even if they get a landslide next time I struggle to see them rising much especially as said landslide would likely be caused by the Tories bleeding lots votes to the Lib Dems/UKIP (the latter if hard Brexit fails) while Labour stays in the low 40s. Plus given the nature of this seat the Tories probably have a hard floor, it’s difficult to see them going much below 45% here.

  29. Mel Stride has been appointed Leader of the House of Commons, replacing Andrea Leadsom.

  30. Mel Stride is also Gove’s campaign manager which has led to his appointment not receiving universal praise among Tory Mp’s.

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