Daventry

2015 Result:
Conservative: 30550 (58.2%)
Labour: 9491 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 2352 (4.5%)
Green: 1829 (3.5%)
UKIP: 8296 (15.8%)
MAJORITY: 21059 (40.1%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Northamptonshire. The whole of the Daventry council area and parts of South Northamptonshire and Wellingborough council areas.

Main population centres: Daventry, Weedon Bec, Earls Barton.

Profile: A largely rural seat covering the north-western part of Northamptonshire, to the north of the county town. Daventry itself is a small market town, its position on the M1 making it a centre for warehousing and distribution. Most of the electorate though are scattered across the small villages of western Northamptonshire. The constituency contains the Watford Gap service station, traditionally cited as the dividing point between the north and the south of England.

Politics: This is a very safe Conservative seat, held by the part since its creation in 1974. Its best known former MP is Reg Prentice, the former Labour Secretary of State for Education who defected to the Conservative party in 1977.


Current MP
CHRIS HEATON-HARRIS (Conservative) Born 1967, Epsom. Educated at Tiffin Grammar School and Wolverhampton Polytechnic. Former chairman of the family business. Contested Leicester South 1997, Leicester South by-election 2004. MEP for the East Midlands 1999-2009. First elected as MP for Daventry in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29252 (56%)
Lab: 8168 (16%)
LDem: 10064 (19%)
UKIP: 2333 (5%)
Oth: 1957 (4%)
MAJ: 19188 (37%)
2005*
Con: 31206 (52%)
Lab: 16520 (27%)
LDem: 9964 (16%)
UKIP: 1927 (3%)
Oth: 822 (1%)
MAJ: 14686 (24%)
2001
Con: 27911 (49%)
Lab: 18262 (32%)
LDem: 9130 (16%)
UKIP: 1381 (2%)
MAJ: 9649 (17%)
1997
Con: 28615 (46%)
Lab: 21237 (34%)
LDem: 9233 (15%)
Oth: 647 (1%)
MAJ: 7378 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS HEATON-HARRIS (Conservative) See above.
ABIGAIL CAMPBELL (Labour) Daventry councillor since 2012.
CALLUM DELHOY (Liberal Democrat)
MICHAEL GERARD (UKIP)
STEVE WHIFFEN (Green) Contested Daventry 2010.
Links
Comments - No Responses on “Daventry”
  1. The Conservatives retained Ravensthorpe in last night’s by-election:

    Con: 285 (46.5%)
    UKIP: 212 (34.6%)
    Lab: 93 (15.2%)
    Lib Dem: 23 (3.8%)

    Neither Labour nor UKIP fought the seat in 2012. That year, the electors of Ravensthorpe returned a Conservative with nearly 62% of the vote. The English Democrats finished second on 20% with the Lib Dems third on just over 18%.

  2. When Daventry itself hasn’t been in its eponymous seat it was in Northamptonshire South from 1885 to 1918 and from 1950 to 1974.

  3. the old S Northants seat pre-1974 was very similar to the subsequent, and I think the previous Daventry, and considerably larger than the division which now bears the name.

  4. I think this seat for a very long time declared and probably counted on the second day as opposed to the day of the election itself. In 1997, when they last did this, they actually declared very late on in the afternoon, by which time the BBC’s second day coverage had probably gone off the air.

  5. Forecast for 2015

    Con 38
    UKIP 25
    Lab 21
    LD 12
    Others 4

  6. Abigail Campbell = Labour candidate.

  7. Would Daventry town itself be a potential source for UKIP support, or elsewhere in the seat? They didn’t do as well here in 2010 as they did in e.g. the Black Country or Grimsby, but scoring 4.5% three years before they hit the ground running suggests that there is scope for at least a second or third place.

  8. prediction for 2015-

    con- 44%
    UKIP- 19%
    Lab- 16%
    Lib- 15%
    Green- 5%
    English- 2%

    A pretty big cut down of the tory majority. Still a huge one however. A great set of demographics for them will help the UKIP vote.

  9. I can’t quite fathom why people think the Tory vote share will fall off a cliff here. The Tories managed 48% in the district this year and I would have thought that their vote share will strengthen further in time for next year. There may be some slippage to UKIP (who managed 27% this year) but I am not convinced the demographics are actually that great for UKIP. Let us not forget that this is a pretty wealthy seat with a large population of managers and directors. They might not be Cameroons but most of them are still likely to vote Conservative. In fact the demographics are not a million miles away from Newark and are if anything even more favourable for the Conservatives.

    I’d say:

    Con 54
    Lab 18
    UKIP 15
    LD 10
    Oth 3

  10. The UKIP candidate Nigel Wickens, is actually standing in Mid Bedfordshire (you already have him listed there!), Daventry will adopt a new candidate soon

  11. The Lib Dem candidate here in 2010, Chris McGlynn has switched to Kettering for 2015.

  12. Conservative Hold. 13,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)