Daventry

2015 Result:
Conservative: 30550 (58.2%)
Labour: 9491 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 2352 (4.5%)
Green: 1829 (3.5%)
UKIP: 8296 (15.8%)
MAJORITY: 21059 (40.1%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Northamptonshire. The whole of the Daventry council area and parts of South Northamptonshire and Wellingborough council areas.

Main population centres: Daventry, Weedon Bec, Earls Barton.

Profile: A largely rural seat covering the north-western part of Northamptonshire, to the north of the county town. Daventry itself is a small market town, its position on the M1 making it a centre for warehousing and distribution. Most of the electorate though are scattered across the small villages of western Northamptonshire. The constituency contains the Watford Gap service station, traditionally cited as the dividing point between the north and the south of England.

Politics: This is a very safe Conservative seat, held by the part since its creation in 1974. Its best known former MP is Reg Prentice, the former Labour Secretary of State for Education who defected to the Conservative party in 1977.


Current MP
CHRIS HEATON-HARRIS (Conservative) Born 1967, Epsom. Educated at Tiffin Grammar School and Wolverhampton Polytechnic. Former chairman of the family business. Contested Leicester South 1997, Leicester South by-election 2004. MEP for the East Midlands 1999-2009. First elected as MP for Daventry in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29252 (56%)
Lab: 8168 (16%)
LDem: 10064 (19%)
UKIP: 2333 (5%)
Oth: 1957 (4%)
MAJ: 19188 (37%)
2005*
Con: 31206 (52%)
Lab: 16520 (27%)
LDem: 9964 (16%)
UKIP: 1927 (3%)
Oth: 822 (1%)
MAJ: 14686 (24%)
2001
Con: 27911 (49%)
Lab: 18262 (32%)
LDem: 9130 (16%)
UKIP: 1381 (2%)
MAJ: 9649 (17%)
1997
Con: 28615 (46%)
Lab: 21237 (34%)
LDem: 9233 (15%)
Oth: 647 (1%)
MAJ: 7378 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS HEATON-HARRIS (Conservative) See above.
ABIGAIL CAMPBELL (Labour) Daventry councillor since 2012.
CALLUM DELHOY (Liberal Democrat)
MICHAEL GERARD (UKIP)
STEVE WHIFFEN (Green) Contested Daventry 2010.
Links
Comments - 43 Responses on “Daventry”
  1. The Conservatives retained Ravensthorpe in last night’s by-election:

    Con: 285 (46.5%)
    UKIP: 212 (34.6%)
    Lab: 93 (15.2%)
    Lib Dem: 23 (3.8%)

    Neither Labour nor UKIP fought the seat in 2012. That year, the electors of Ravensthorpe returned a Conservative with nearly 62% of the vote. The English Democrats finished second on 20% with the Lib Dems third on just over 18%.

  2. When Daventry itself hasn’t been in its eponymous seat it was in Northamptonshire South from 1885 to 1918 and from 1950 to 1974.

  3. the old S Northants seat pre-1974 was very similar to the subsequent, and I think the previous Daventry, and considerably larger than the division which now bears the name.

  4. I think this seat for a very long time declared and probably counted on the second day as opposed to the day of the election itself. In 1997, when they last did this, they actually declared very late on in the afternoon, by which time the BBC’s second day coverage had probably gone off the air.

  5. Forecast for 2015

    Con 38
    UKIP 25
    Lab 21
    LD 12
    Others 4

  6. Abigail Campbell = Labour candidate.

  7. Would Daventry town itself be a potential source for UKIP support, or elsewhere in the seat? They didn’t do as well here in 2010 as they did in e.g. the Black Country or Grimsby, but scoring 4.5% three years before they hit the ground running suggests that there is scope for at least a second or third place.

  8. prediction for 2015-

    con- 44%
    UKIP- 19%
    Lab- 16%
    Lib- 15%
    Green- 5%
    English- 2%

    A pretty big cut down of the tory majority. Still a huge one however. A great set of demographics for them will help the UKIP vote.

  9. I can’t quite fathom why people think the Tory vote share will fall off a cliff here. The Tories managed 48% in the district this year and I would have thought that their vote share will strengthen further in time for next year. There may be some slippage to UKIP (who managed 27% this year) but I am not convinced the demographics are actually that great for UKIP. Let us not forget that this is a pretty wealthy seat with a large population of managers and directors. They might not be Cameroons but most of them are still likely to vote Conservative. In fact the demographics are not a million miles away from Newark and are if anything even more favourable for the Conservatives.

    I’d say:

    Con 54
    Lab 18
    UKIP 15
    LD 10
    Oth 3

  10. The UKIP candidate Nigel Wickens, is actually standing in Mid Bedfordshire (you already have him listed there!), Daventry will adopt a new candidate soon

  11. The Lib Dem candidate here in 2010, Chris McGlynn has switched to Kettering for 2015.

  12. Conservative Hold. 13,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  13. Chris Heaton – Harris has resigned as a minster within DEXU. Was rumored to be very unhappy and shares a flat with Nigel Adams who resigned earlier today.
    Will others follow?

  14. Middle ranking ministers don’t matter much. The key will be how many cabinet ministers quit.

  15. So far none but it will be a bit of surprise if none of them go if May whips them to vote for a customs union.

  16. Well if enough quit to bring the government down, we could very likely see a Labour administration take power, and the likes of Fox and Grayling would certainly never see a ministerial salary or the inside of a ministerial car ever again. Some of the younger hard Brexiters like Truss are young enough to be in the cabinet again if the Tories are out of power for 10 years. Remainers, young or old, have no future at all in the Conservative party.

  17. I’m not sure someone like Truss- someone who campaigned for Remain and seems to change her mind to suit whatever prevailing wind will benefit her career at any given moment- could properly be categorised as a Hard Brexiteer. What I do think is that she is an odd mix of hard right economic policy and social liberalism (she has an upmarket, city girl vibe) that is so utterly out of tune with where floating voters are in Britain at this current time. She’d go down like a bucket of cold sick in places like Mansfield. Her card has been marked after a few poor performances at different ministries- particularly Justice.

  18. Her attempt to turn nurseries into childcare sweat shops was worse – thankfully blocked by the Lib Dems.

    You don’t have to convince me – I wouldn’t piss on her if she was on fire. Her lack of principles makes it sadly likely she will bounce back though, more so than much of the rest of the cabinet.

  19. Agree with both comments – she comes across as an arrogant, insincere, opportunist, with a massively inflated opinion of her own ability, willing to say whatever she things will get her elected, and genuinely believes she has the charm and intellect to pull it off (which she doesn’t)

    It;s worth remembering she used to be Lin Dem who was best-known for wanting to abolish the monarchy

    Surely even in today’s world of sub standard frontline politicians, a leadership bid from her has to be seen as a sick joke

  20. “It;s worth remembering she used to be Lib Dem who was best-known for wanting to abolish the monarchy”

    This last 3 years is an extremely bad advert for abolishing the monarchy.

  21. I take it you missed her little leadership bid in The Sunday Times the other week, Tim. The headline? ‘I’ll wear what I want and I’ll say what I want’, with accompanying photographs of her simpering at the camera like Kim Kardashian or some other Z list party girl. Kind of a snapshot of the sad state of British politics in 2019.

  22. The upmarket city girls won’t be voting Tory in any great numbers now.

    It’s the great unwashed of Clacton and Stoke-on-Trent South that the next Tory leader will need to connect with.

    I don’t think Truss stands much of a chance of becoming leader for that reason, but I think she’ll occupy senior positions for many years.

  23. Yes, unmarried women who are financially independent (or perhaps just high earning younger women generally) have been a bad demographic group recently for the Tories and the Republicans in the US as well.

    It’s interesting…when Liz Kendall had her god awful leadership bid a few years ago I remember thinking that this is perhaps the only demographic group who could really get behind her. But as they are reliable Lab voters anyway, that wasn’t much of a selling point.

  24. She will probably be the next chancellor.
    I wonder if she privately still supports abolition of the Monarchy – afterall she wants a small state and monarchy doesn’t quite fit into that economic theory.

  25. ‘She will probably be the next chancellor’

    That is a pretty bold prediction. When May and Hammond eventually go, there will be.some pretty big beasts (with far more political stature than her) who will need to be bought off/ kept happy. Gove, Raab, Rudd, Hunt are just a few names who spring to mind.

  26. Raab and Gove I can see at Home/Foreign more than chancellor. Hunt stand a fair chance of chancellor through.

  27. I can’t say I’m a fan but I don’t think it’s fair to call Liz Truss unprincipled. To pursue the IEA-style agenda at a time when its electoral popularity is roughly level with that of the norovirus demonstrates that she does really believe in it.

  28. Hahaha.

  29. Gove is a neo-con on foreign policy

  30. PT – what else would you call somebody who left the lib dems for the Tories simply because she fancied becoming an MP – presumably after her well publicised affair with married MP Mark

    As useless as the likes of Chris Grayling are you get the impression that despite protestations to the contrary in his heart of hearts he knows this, whereas Truss really thinks she’s all that. If she goes forward with her leadership shell soon find out that its a view shared by nobody else

  31. I think it’s fair to say that Dominic Raab has already installed himself as the Thatcherite flagbearer.

    In any case, I think Liz Truss has recognised there is a gap in her own credibility. That must explain the rumours I’ve heard that she’s planning a joint ticket with that epitome of gravitas, Gavin Williamson 😉

  32. Raab is too lightweight, has too many enemies, and will be haunted by his brainless Dover-Calais comments just as much as Leadsom was with her “I am a mother” gaffe. He has no chance.

    I know I’m going back on previous statements here but I’m beginning to suspect that Tory MPs may be panicked into installing Boris, for fear that all the other contenders are faceless lightweights who would be bested by Corbyn in an election.

  33. Possible. If the rules change to 4 mp’s on the ballot then its all over for everyone else.
    Raab has had a few allegations (all strongly denied by him) of bullying made
    To me he comes across as very smug.

  34. There was a good piece in The Times but one of their more leftish contributors – Phil Collins or David Aaronovitch – describing Raab as in the “nasty party’ candidate, and agree that he would be far more likely to put off the sort of voters the Tories might otherwise gain due to Brexit

    Like May, he doesn’t seem to be especially intelligent, which you have to be to make a success of top job nowadays – and which the likes of Cameron and Blair didn’t get anywhere near enough credit for possessing

    Front runners are Gove and Hunt – a much safer pairs of hands than Johnson, who is likely to split the party permanently. Tory MPs won’t go for someone like that

  35. “he doesn’t seem to be especially intelligent, which you have to be to make a success of top job nowadays”

    That suggests Corbyn is going to be a bad Prime Minister then. Though in fairness, what he lacks in intelligence and curiosity, he makes up in cunning and staying power. Also his new glasses do make him look more statesmanlike.

  36. Corbyn is far from an intellectual…he certainly.doesn’t have a nimble, agile mind. I suppose his best quality is doggedness as HH implies. Not PM material.in.any way shape or form but I’m kind of resigned to the fact that it might happen. McDonnell.is much brighter but is a nasty piece of work imo.

  37. I’m wondering who are the really smart people in the political establishment right now. Vince Cable seems a bit doddery these days but he saw the 2008 crash coming long before anyone else, which I think gives him a bit of credo in that department.

  38. The calamitous student loan system Cable has lumbered onto the country is far from smart.

    (That goes for two brains Willetts as well)

  39. The student loan system is economic incompetence but Vince’s biggest mistake was endorsing TTIP only now does he see the concerns of a free trade deal with the US and all their clorinated chicken, chemically induced beef, etc. That goes for Jo Swinson too who only now understands the impact of the fees she introduced.

    Tbf PMs are rarely if ever intellectuals and nor should they be. They should be practical people who understand realpolitik. Broqn was an intellectual but I think that came from his religious background which led him to read philiosophy and sociology like Wealth of Nations by that other great Scotsman.

    I think Blair unfortunately didn’t quite understand the mechanicd of what he wanted to do. There was an interview with Frank Field where he says Blair asked him to cut welfare and Frank said ‘in real terms, cash terms, as a % of GDP’ and Blair just looked dumbfounded

  40. Corbyn seems even less suited to being PM to May – yet when she first got the job she seemed like a good choice (i certainly thought she was head and shoulders above the competition) so until they actually start doing the job its a tough one to call

  41. To be fair, a trade deal with the US under Trump is a very different proposition to a trade deal with the US under Obama, or indeed any establishment US politician, just because his absurdly zero-sum views on trade would make it impossible to negotiate good terms.

    And, for the record, I’m quite relaxed about chlorine chicken/hormone beef. This issue always seemed to me like protectionism masquerading as public health. I realise that’s a very niche position but it doesn’t undermine my argument because no other US president would have tried to push through those trade terms when they realised how unpopular they were among the European people.

  42. The terms of a trade deal with the US now and TTIP aren’t largely different. There are the same demands on lower food safety standards. Though I concede Obama did drop TTIP whereas Trump clearly is pushing this FTA hard

  43. Abbey North ward by-election, 24.10.19:

    Cons 376
    Lab 280
    LD 262

    Conservative Gain from Labour.

    The victor was aged just 20.

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