Dagenham & Rainham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10492 (24.4%)
Labour: 17830 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 717 (1.7%)
BNP: 151 (0.4%)
Green: 806 (1.9%)
UKIP: 12850 (29.8%)
Independent: 133 (0.3%)
Others: 71 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4980 (11.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barking and Dagenham council area and part of the Havering council area.

Main population centres: Dagenham, Rainham, Chadwell Heath.

Profile: A solid, white, working class seat. Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham..

Politics: Dagenham is a safe Labour area, held by the party since it was given its own seat in 1945. Before their collapse it was an area of BNP strength, with the party winning 11% of the vote here in 2010.


Current MP
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) Born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Warwick University. Former Deputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party and in 2012 was appointed co-ordinator of Labour`s policy review.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15183 (34%)
Lab: 17813 (40%)
LDem: 3806 (9%)
BNP: 4952 (11%)
Oth: 2478 (6%)
MAJ: 2630 (6%)
2005*
Con: 7841 (25%)
Lab: 15446 (50%)
LDem: 3106 (10%)
BNP: 2870 (9%)
Oth: 1578 (5%)
MAJ: 7605 (25%)
2001
Con: 7091 (26%)
Lab: 15784 (57%)
LDem: 2820 (10%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Oth: 507 (2%)
MAJ: 8693 (32%)
1997
Con: 6705 (19%)
Lab: 23759 (66%)
LDem: 2704 (7%)
Oth: 1584 (4%)
MAJ: 17054 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Dagenham

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JULIE MARSON (Conservative) Thanet Councillor since 2011. Contested South East region 2014 European elections.
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) See above.
DENISE CAPSTICK (Liberal Democrat) Matron. former Southwark councillor.
PETER HARRIS (UKIP) Businessman.
KATE SIMPSON (Green) Teacher.
KIM GANDY (English Democrat) Contested West Ham 2010 for UKIP.
TESS CULNANE (BNP) Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election, Orpington 2010.
TERRY LONDON (No description)
Links
Comments - 117 Responses on “Dagenham & Rainham”
  1. I think you are well on the money here Andy JS, there is a lot of “overspill” from UKIP loving Thurrock here, and I only think it would take a Labour “disaster” to hand this seat to UKIP. A lot of traditional Lab voters could switch very easily in my humble opinion

  2. The BNP have selected their third candidate, Tess Culnane in Dagenham & Rainham:

    https://twitter.com/lucyk6992/status/583739789804986368

  3. YouGov showing UKIP taking the lead:

    https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/128/nowcast/

  4. Labour by 8000 over UKIP. Big fall in tory vote .

  5. White british population now just under 50 percent and likely to keep falling, this seat is trending away from UKIP regardless. I’d expect a 3000-5000 labour majority but expect this will be UKIP’s future high water mark with east london relentless demographic shift.

  6. If the demographics in (especially) the Dagenham part of the seat keep changing, it’ll go the way of next door Barking where the BNP’s challenge was stemmed in 2010. Nearly a quarter of the seat is BME, although I can see UKIP doing in well in Rainham and South Hornchurch.

  7. Labour is miles ahead in River ward, and also very strong in Whalebone & Village. They will also be a fair way ahead in the remaining Dagenham wards, Chadwell Heath & (confusingly) Heath. l simply don’t see how 5 conclusively Labour wards can be outvoted by just 3 Havering ones, in none of which is Labour negligible either.

  8. The 3 wards in Havering, Rainham, South hornchurch and Elm Park, all saw right wing parties returned at last years council election , with the Tories coming after Labour, the Tories targeted this as a constituency in 2010 havent this time, if it wasn’t for the BNP and English democrats standing, the Anti Labour, right may have delivered Ukip a victory ,the Tory candidate is charismatic, but M Cruddas seems safe as long as the Libdem, remains non existent

  9. I’d expect this seat to be the strongest BNP performance this election – although a sharp fall on 2010.

    Lab – 47
    Con – 27
    UKIP – 16
    LD – 4
    BNP – 3
    Oth – 3

  10. As predicted by some, UKIP finished very strongly here. Look at the drops in support for the Tories, Lib Dems and BNP…most if not all of their votes transferred to UKIP. Tories down 10%, Lib Dems 6.9% and BNP 10.8%.

    Seems like the anti-Labour is coalescing around them. Actual Labour vote went up very slightly. If demographic change in Dagenham makes it more like Barking, this should make it more secure for them. Rainham and Hornchurch probably went UKIP very heavily.

  11. On March 17th I wrote:

    “I have a feeling something horrible could happen to the Tory share of the vote in this constituency. It could be closer to 20% than 30%.”

    At the election they received their 6th worst vote share change in the country, down by 10 percentage points:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14kV5ayrHYc3c2snY5aI4vuhLG-98NOD-3aNG2LQxLvo/edit#gid=0

  12. Mayoral result (excluding postal):

    Khan 7365 36.9%
    Goldsmith 6810 34.1%
    Whittle 2865 14.3%

    Looks like a fair proportion of the substantial UKIP vote from the GE went Goldsmith. With postal votes this may even have gone Tory!

  13. Remember than this seat and its predecessors have been Labour since 1945. It got close-ish a couple of times in the 1980s, but aside from that it’s usually been ultra-safe. Very worrying for Jon Cruddas that Khan carried it only narrowly, if at all, and that given effectively a forced choice many UKIP voters here have gone Tory. Suggests that this seat (which, of course may not exist in its current form by 2020) could be a tight marginal if the UKIP vote falls away.

  14. I think some people are reading rather too much into the pattern of the mayoral election results. It was not the same as a General Election, and the lower turnout has resulted in both the Labour and Tory candidates doing well in areas where their support is most committed.

    Hence, for example, the fact that Khan and Goldsmith were almost level in both Dagenham and Battersea does not mean that we can expect similar results for those two constituencies in the 2020 General Election.

  15. @James E

    I still think there are interesting things to be taken out of the constituency-level results from the mayoral election, even though you’re completely right that they shouldn’t be projected on to 2020 – for a start, because 2020 is four years away and a whole lot is likely to change by then.

  16. Cruddas has conducted a poll in his seat which asked residents voting intentions regarding the forthcoming EU Referendum. The results are as follows:

    55.7%Leave, 36.6% Remain, 7.7% Undecided

    1609 residents were surveyed

    http://joncruddas.org.uk/%E2%80%98i%E2%80%99m-no-fan-eu-brexit-too-big-bet%E2%80%99

  17. It isn’t a poll, it is a survey, and the results come only from those who posted it back. Nevertheless, a very high figure for Leave.

  18. @H.Hemmelig

    Sorry. Yes, I meant to say it’s a survey not a poll!

  19. Am surprised its that low really. Would have thought this seat would be well into the 60’s for leave. especially as this type of poll tends to be responded to more by the elderly who are more pro leave. Despite the fact I am personally for remain I have long felt that leave will win the referendum ( and the recent stock and betting movements to remain as a sort of false dawn) so things like this just reinforce what I suspect will happen.

  20. “Am surprised its that low really. Would have thought this seat would be well into the 60’s for leave”

    @BM11

    The Dagenham part of this seat has changed dramatically over the passed decade or so. A siginicant number of the British-born white working class residents whose families have lived in this seat for generations have now moved to Essex. It now contains many African and Asian residents from East London so I don’t expect LEAVE to poll higher than 60% on a good day for them in this seat.

  21. BME support for leave is not non existent through. Plus turnout factors

  22. The formula I’ve come up with is giving a result of 53% Remain in Barking & Dagenham if the overall UK result is 50/50. +3 in other words.

  23. But Dagenham & Rainham should be stronger for Leave than Barking, so actually your theory is pretty in line with the survey

  24. The figures from Chris Hanretty which I’ve linked on Europe South East show Leave 7.8 points ahead in Barking and Dagenham, given a 50/50 result.

  25. I’d be sceptical of Cruddas’s survey as it is likely that overwhelmingly Labour voters responded to it – they only account for 41% of the vote in the constituency and are probably the most pro-EU.

  26. Maybe through it might not have been identified as such. If so at least 35 of the Labour vote here is BME then the seat will be at least 70% leave and Barking and Dagenham as a whole will be good for remain if leave under 60%.

  27. I don’t necessarily want it to happen but the likeable Cruddas will be defeated by the Tories imo.

    Leave area with a big UKIP vote.

  28. Its interesting to compare this seat to Dudley North. In both cases incumbent Labour MP’s who are less than enamoured by the current leadership, sitting on 41% of the vote. The Conservative/UKIP share of the vote is in total almost identical and splits 5:4 (although in this seat it is UKIP which has the 5 part). Both could fall if the Conservative/UKIP vote consolidates behind a single candidate.

    Cruddas has the advantage of a significantly higher BAME vote. Also in his case the Conservatives start from 3rd place.

  29. Although I am sure Labour will lose many seats at the election, this however will not be one of them.

  30. Not so sure.

  31. I think Labour will lose this by up to 5000 votes.

    Given the fall in Labour support and rise in the Tories in national polls I cannot see anything but a Tory gain.

  32. This seems a realtively easy Tory gain. Through I see no Labour camapging for it, instead Ilford North, Wesminster North, Tooting etc are the main seats.

  33. Broadly speaking, the polls are showing about half UKIP vote shifting to Con.
    If replicated here, then Jon Cruddas is in trouble.

    However, if UKIP mount a strong campaign here, this may save him even if his vote falls below 40%.

  34. Honestly the Tories should have their foot on Labours throat and be pressing down right now. Where is Theresa May? Why isn’t she putting Jez to the sword? I think Labour, with a decent leader, could be back in power in 2022.. So far the Tories haven’t been impressive at all. Wonder what odds a Lab/Lib coalition in 2022

  35. You hardly need to put anyone to the sword if they’re over 20% behind you.

    It’s now 10/1 or 12/1 on Labour winning most seats. I’m not aware of any bookies offering prices on 2022, although you can bet on there being no Labour Govt in the next decade at Evens.

  36. The Tories won’t want to peak too early and let the election be a done deal over a month before polling day. They’ll maximise their vote if they can increase it during the last few days of the campaign.

  37. I think this election is mistake as any gains made at this election will be lost in the next if the government have a rocky time with brexit and Labour get their act together.

    However, while the Tories haven’t been impressive and the media have even expressed their frustration at a lacklustre campaign don’t mistake this as a poor hand. I read Lyton Crosbys interview in Mad and Bad Men Advertising and Politics. This is exactly what he wants.

    Bill is right if people think this is all over then they won’t vote. It’s a common tactic to let the public think that you’re in trouble and if they don’t vote they’ll let in Labour. Daily Mail has already published two different polling figures for Labour and the Tories from two companies manipulating the figures in the hope people might worry Labour could win. Lynton and Teresa May have both said the polls are wrong. Lynton doesn’t believe in polls any way arguing their purpose is headlines and that’s it but that’s not why he’s saying it he worries like the Mail and May that people won’t vote.

  38. And so it begins,first election leaflet of many to come and the prize goes to UKIP

  39. “This seat is no blacker than Croydon Central and has a lower Labour vote than that seat, I think Labour will need to tread carefully.”

    This is one of the few seats where a campaign focused on mosques and burkhas will still yield UKIP a lot of votes, perhaps even enough to maintain second place. Plus there’s been two more years of rapid demographic change. This seat may have been no blacker than Croydon Central in the 2011 census but I highly doubt that’s the case now. If the Tories win here they will in all likelihood get a blowout national landslide.

  40. Same candidate?

  41. Matt W – the campaign only officially begins after tomorrow. It’s just that some mistakenly thought it was a 7 week campaign just because it took longer to announce due to the FTP Act, as well as when holidays fell etc.

    It’s a 5 week campaign at most and most of the public only become engaged in the final fortnight.

    Re demographics and ethnicity – I’ll repeat what I always remind people of: the Census figures are not those on the Roll. 70% of ethnic minorities are aged under 30 and we know many young people are not registered and many don’t vote and this is particularly true amongst black voters.

    So eg 15% black on the Census may only mean 10% on the Roll and 5% of those who vote.

    Hence why here the BNP polled 10% for a decade and UKIP managed 30% in 2015.

  42. BT:
    Yes re-run of 2015 by both UKIP and Conservatives so far.

  43. W

  44. Whoops, typo.

    What happens if the UKIP vote collapses in this seat and goes Tory?

  45. What do people think will happen in this seat in June? I see that UKIP are standing, as are the BNP, Greens and Lib Dems, But there’s still a massive UKIP vote to squeeze.

  46. I think Con might just do it. Will be tough as Cruddas is a good campaigner and the Dagenham part of the seat remains solid Lab territory. But the Cons are targeting hard and I can see them sweeping up the ex-UKIP vote in the Havering part. If they do win it may end up a one-off with the demographics likely to tilt away from them again going forward.

  47. This is likely to still be one of UKIP’s better performances in terms of vote share – I’d expect them to hold on to about 10-12% here.

    Even so, the bookies seem to be making the Tories clear favourites here.

    Con 8/13
    Lab 6/5

  48. Cruddas losing would be a shame. Thoughtful guy in a house which is not as intellectually distinguished as it was 40 years ago!

  49. What’s the verdict here?

  50. Lab hold, on a reduced lead over Cons.

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