Dagenham & Rainham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10492 (24.4%)
Labour: 17830 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 717 (1.7%)
BNP: 151 (0.4%)
Green: 806 (1.9%)
UKIP: 12850 (29.8%)
Independent: 133 (0.3%)
Others: 71 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4980 (11.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barking and Dagenham council area and part of the Havering council area.

Main population centres: Dagenham, Rainham, Chadwell Heath.

Profile: A solid, white, working class seat. Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham..

Politics: Dagenham is a safe Labour area, held by the party since it was given its own seat in 1945. Before their collapse it was an area of BNP strength, with the party winning 11% of the vote here in 2010.


Current MP
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) Born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Warwick University. Former Deputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party and in 2012 was appointed co-ordinator of Labour`s policy review.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15183 (34%)
Lab: 17813 (40%)
LDem: 3806 (9%)
BNP: 4952 (11%)
Oth: 2478 (6%)
MAJ: 2630 (6%)
2005*
Con: 7841 (25%)
Lab: 15446 (50%)
LDem: 3106 (10%)
BNP: 2870 (9%)
Oth: 1578 (5%)
MAJ: 7605 (25%)
2001
Con: 7091 (26%)
Lab: 15784 (57%)
LDem: 2820 (10%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Oth: 507 (2%)
MAJ: 8693 (32%)
1997
Con: 6705 (19%)
Lab: 23759 (66%)
LDem: 2704 (7%)
Oth: 1584 (4%)
MAJ: 17054 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Dagenham

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JULIE MARSON (Conservative) Thanet Councillor since 2011. Contested South East region 2014 European elections.
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) See above.
DENISE CAPSTICK (Liberal Democrat) Matron. former Southwark councillor.
PETER HARRIS (UKIP) Businessman.
KATE SIMPSON (Green) Teacher.
KIM GANDY (English Democrat) Contested West Ham 2010 for UKIP.
TESS CULNANE (BNP) Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election, Orpington 2010.
TERRY LONDON (No description)
Links
Comments - 117 Responses on “Dagenham & Rainham”
  1. With the BNP ib disarray, I would expect Ukip to take most of the BNP vote and some of the Conservative vote to possibly come second.

  2. I’d doubt that. The Tory vote is still quite well-established in Elm Park & S Hornchurch wards & should be sufficient to see them keep 2nd place.

  3. Glen may have a point. This seat is ripe for UKIP but it will take them a fairly long time to establish themselves here. As Barnaby says the Tories are throng in the Havering side of the seat but Dagenham does look like a place that UKIP could do well in now the BNP are no more.

  4. With Anthony’s permission I will post a link to the spreadsheet I put together featuring the white British ethnicity 2011 census statistics for each constituency in Greater London by ward:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHhQdTdUTkJJNjc1a3dsTDlwMEpsbWc#gid=0

  5. I assume the Conservatives would have won here in 1983 and 1987 on the current boundaries, but lost in 1992?

  6. Would have thought the Tories would have won in 1992 as well. Pete will have the answer.

  7. I assumed that Labour would have regained a constituency base on the current boundaries in 1992 because Brian Gould’s majority increased from under 3000 to over 6000.

    Perhaps Rainham was still so Tory in 1992 and the parts of Dagenham omitted so Labour that Goulds 6000 majority would have been overturned?

    Perhaps Pete would know?

  8. Yes that would be my guess. Remember quite a bit of the old Dagenham seat was moved to Barking, generally these parts were amongst the strongest wards for Labour.

    The Hornchurch seat, containing Rainham, gave the Tories a bigger majority than Labour won in Dagenham in 1992.

    My ballpark guess is this seat would have been Con by about 2000…but as you say Pete will know to a better level of accuracy.

  9. My notional figures have the Tories ahead by a princely sum of 17 votes, so in actual fact it is too close to call. Basically Labour would have been just under 3,000 ahead in the Dagenham wards and the Tories just under 3,000 ahead in the ‘Rainham’ wards

  10. Interesting. Much closer than I had expected. I guess much of the Tory majority in Hornchurch would have been outside this seat.

    In terms of Dagenham, were the wards which are now in Barking better for Labour in 1992 than the ones which are still in this seat?

  11. Yes, the wards which came into this seat I have breaking 50 / 39 in Labour’s favour while those that went to Dagenham broke 55 / 33
    But the Hornchurch wards that came into this seat were also much better for Labour. These were 49 / 39 in the Tories favour against 59 / 30 in the wards which went to Hornchurch & Upminster

    My guess is that if this seat had actually existed and had been won by a Tory in 1983 and 1987 (which it certainly would have been) then incumbency would have helped them to hold on in 1992, in a result very similar to somewhere like Erith & Crayford

  12. “the wards which came into this seat I have breaking 50 / 39 in Labour’s favour while those that went to Dagenham broke 55 / 33”

    should read those that went to Barking broke 55 / 33

  13. Many thanks for the detail.

    There still is a very good similarity between this seat and Erith & Thamesmead. A cross borough seat where the Tories are increasingly dead in one half but still very competitive in the other, but not by enough to win.

  14. Prediction for 2015-
    Cruddas (Labour)- 47%
    Conservative- 32%
    UKIP- 8%
    BNP- 7%
    Liberal Democrats- 5%
    Others- 1%

  15. Rainham iss an area which has had local Residents Association councillors for a long time which makes it a bit difficult to tell how it votes nationally. Labour and Tory seem pretty even-stevens

  16. The result of the last general election here suggests that the overwhelming majority of those who voted either for the Residents’ Association (which holds a seat in S Hornchurch ward) or the Independent Residents (who hold all 3 seats in Rainham & Wennington) voted Conservative in the general election. After all, Labour won all 5 Barking & Dagenham borough wards easily, so to get as close as they did the Tories must surely have outpolled Labour comfortably in the 3 Havering ones.

  17. That’s no surprise. Many Conservatives routinely sat on councils as “Ratepayers” some decades ago.

    I’m puzzled why The Results is consistently predicting such high percentages for the BNP in so many seats. I’m guessing their vote will largely shift over to UKIP or back to Labour in most places. They barely even exist as a party now.

  18. “That’s no surprise. Many Conservatives routinely sat on councils as “Ratepayers” some decades ago.”

    Yes prime examples are Epsom and Ewell, the old Croydon county borough and the old Beddington and Wallington UD.

  19. LAB HOLD MAJ : 16%
    LAB 44
    CON 28
    UKIP 12
    LD 6
    GRN 3
    OTH 7

  20. Pretty sure this will happen in 2015:

    Lab 45
    Con 25
    UKIP 21
    LD 4
    Others 5

  21. I’m pretty sure you’re talking out of your arse.

    White British will be comfortably below 60% here by 2015, not really high enough for UKIP to get over 10% let alone 20% of the vote.

    And as Barnaby said on the Romford thread, UKIP attract a lot of Labour votes in outer east London. It’s inconceivable UKIP could get 20% here whilst Labour’s vote share rose.

  22. Following my last post I have been contemplating volatility. More work needs to be done before I have an index I am satisfied with, but preliminary results (limited for now to primarily Labour-Conservative contests where there is a reasonable continuity of boundaries between 1979 and 2010) gives the following list of the most volatile constituencies:

    Dagenham
    Castle Point
    Romford
    Upminster
    Thurrock
    Cleethorpes
    Plymouth Devonport (Owen affects this)
    Billericay
    Nuneaton
    Bedfordshire South (West)
    Leicestershire NW

    Another illustration of the distinctiveness of South Essex

  23. Not going to predict final split of council seats in B&D or Havering after glorious failure last term,but will predict ongoing split personality in Sth. Hornchurch .I will be splitting my votes 3 ways,not from protest as such but refuse to vote for any candidate who does not live (or work)in the ward.

  24. It may be more sensible to vote on policy…

  25. Interesting stuff on volatility, John. Interesting that none of the seats you mention are in the West Midlands conurbation which used to be thought of as very volatile, but I suppose that was more so in elections between 1970 – 79 when the influence of Enoch Powell was strong.

  26. Joe,sensible humph i am not sure after recent night of the long knives amongst Romford Tories,numerous changing of parties mid stream,standing under one party name for council and a differant name for Euro elections,I do not know if polices mean that much at a local level any more.All parties seem to promise elect us and the sunshine will shine out of our combind behinds.Cynical maybe but I have reached a point where as if a person wants to represent me he/she can at least know how the locals live.

  27. I’m sorry but using a vote for a particular party based on whether a particular candidate happens to live in a particular ward is ludicrous. Why not think about what that candidate might actually do if elected? It’s your right to do so but equally it’s my right to say it’s not very productive for a community for people to vote in this way.

  28. Barnaby Marder (Pt 1)
    I would agree with you 75% of the time for Euro,national and regional elections I read all the bumph I receive serious,silly or down right strange and make I hope a informed decision on who gets my vote.I do not think voting party A just because their parents or grand-parents did,or because party B is not party A and deserve a kicking helps anyone in the long run.
    But for local elections if I was god for a day I would change the rules not only for all candidates to be really local,but that they could only stand without any party trappings.

  29. (Pt 2)
    I dislike at this level voting on party whip lines and would hope that councillors votrd on maters such as how the money got spent between schools,libraries and filling in pot-holes in roads on local knowledge and not en block.

  30. Oh well! Interesting time ahead for Havering council,not very interesting at B & D.Sth. Hornchurch not as paranoid as before,but re my comment above I really do not like the fact of a candidate standing on the same day in two different elections under two different flags.

  31. Lab 43
    Con 30
    UKIP 19
    Lib Dem 5
    BNP 3

  32. I think the Dagenham side of the constituency will get Cruddas past the finishing line. While the demographics aren’t as heavily pro-Labour as Barking they do seem to be changing.

    That said the large BNP vote from 2010 could shift to UKIP and cause Labour a bit of a headache. Much of it probably came from the Dagenham side. After all they polled 9% in 2005, whereas they only scored around 3% that year in the old Hornchurch seat from which the three Havering wards were moved to created Dagenham & Rainham.

    Not sure how the Residents Association voters in the Havering wards will vote nationally with UKIP as an option.

  33. More ridiculous over-optimism (on the Tories’ behalf) from Dalek.

    Perhaps I should remind him that the Tories got 10% in this seat in the 2014 local elections (down from 25% in 2010). The Tories are going to fall off a cliff here in 2015 and could well fall behind UKIP.

  34. I know around 500 people from the Dagenham and Rainham constituency who will be voting for Kate Simpson from the Green Party in the General Election. There are obviously many more who will vote for her. Don’t dismiss the Greens; it’s highly likely that they’ll be giving Labour a MASSIVE headache (might even win the vote).

  35. Perhaps Gemma Hayes could tell all of her 500 friends that they can get 100/1 about the Greens winning this seat if they pop into their local Ladbrokes or log on to our website

  36. I wouldn’t even bank on the Greens saving their deposit here.

  37. Still no Tory candidate. Big change from 2010 when they were talking up their chances of winning.

  38. HH – that was characteristically but unfairly harsh of you re A Brown’s prediction. Especially when 15% voted BNP/UKIP here with a 65% White UK makeup even in 2010. Plus you agree in your next post here that the Tories have plummeted in this seat in the locals of late. Is there really no Tory PPC here? What happened to the one from 2010?

  39. There really isn’t. They’ve had one for Barking for ages: Mina Rahman. Simon Jones was candidate in 2010.

    “In the Dagenham and Rainham constituency we have conducted a three – year campaign and the response on door-steps is very encouraging. Without getting over confident, there is a good chance that we will get Simon Jones into Westminster. In 2008, Boris won eight of the nine wards that make up this new constituency”

    http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2010/02/the-conservative-challenge-in-barking-and-dagenham.html

  40. There are only 8 wards in the Dagenham & Rainham constituency, 5 in Barking & Dagenham & 3 in Havering.

  41. Cllr Julie Manson has been selected as the Conservative candidate.

  42. ^Marson

  43. Here and the other two Havering constituencies are the only places in London that UKIP will poll anything of any significance other than perhaps Bromley and Bexley.

    I can’t think of any other part of London that UKIP will have any presence.

  44. Andy JS

    On your spreadsheet you have an increase in the percentage of white British in Spitalfields & Banglatown ward.

    Is that correct ?

  45. “I can’t think of any other part of London that UKIP will have any presence.”

    They should be able to hold their deposits in Carshalton & Wallington if they poll well in St Helier. Ditto Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

  46. Richard: yes it is correct. It was the only ward in London where that was the case.

  47. I have a feeling something horrible could happen to the Tory share of the vote in this constituency. It could be closer to 20% than 30%.

  48. I wonder if this is an “under the radar” target for UKIP…

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