Dagenham & Rainham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10492 (24.4%)
Labour: 17830 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 717 (1.7%)
BNP: 151 (0.4%)
Green: 806 (1.9%)
UKIP: 12850 (29.8%)
Independent: 133 (0.3%)
Others: 71 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4980 (11.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barking and Dagenham council area and part of the Havering council area.

Main population centres: Dagenham, Rainham, Chadwell Heath.

Profile: A solid, white, working class seat. Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham..

Politics: Dagenham is a safe Labour area, held by the party since it was given its own seat in 1945. Before their collapse it was an area of BNP strength, with the party winning 11% of the vote here in 2010.

Current MP
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) Born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Warwick University. Former Deputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party and in 2012 was appointed co-ordinator of Labour`s policy review.
Past Results
Con: 15183 (34%)
Lab: 17813 (40%)
LDem: 3806 (9%)
BNP: 4952 (11%)
Oth: 2478 (6%)
MAJ: 2630 (6%)
Con: 7841 (25%)
Lab: 15446 (50%)
LDem: 3106 (10%)
BNP: 2870 (9%)
Oth: 1578 (5%)
MAJ: 7605 (25%)
Con: 7091 (26%)
Lab: 15784 (57%)
LDem: 2820 (10%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Oth: 507 (2%)
MAJ: 8693 (32%)
Con: 6705 (19%)
Lab: 23759 (66%)
LDem: 2704 (7%)
Oth: 1584 (4%)
MAJ: 17054 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Dagenham

2015 Candidates
JULIE MARSON (Conservative) Thanet Councillor since 2011. Contested South East region 2014 European elections.
JON CRUDDAS (Labour) See above.
DENISE CAPSTICK (Liberal Democrat) Matron. former Southwark councillor.
PETER HARRIS (UKIP) Businessman.
KATE SIMPSON (Green) Teacher.
KIM GANDY (English Democrat) Contested West Ham 2010 for UKIP.
TESS CULNANE (BNP) Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election, Orpington 2010.
TERRY LONDON (No description)
Comments - 119 Responses on “Dagenham & Rainham”
  1. erm… BT is by far from a Labour ramper…

  2. Paddy Power now make Labour favourites but not by far: 4/6 to the Tories 6/5.

    YouGov’s constituency model put it as ‘Likely Labour’ with a majority of perhaps 10% over Con, and the UKIP vote falling back to little more than 10%.

  3. Not sure about the bookies odds,but I think the Conservatives are of the opinion that they can win.I have received 7 (seven) pieces of addressed mail from Conservative central office 2 (two) pieces of addressed mail from the candidate 2 (two) generic leaflets through the letter box a phone call asking if I would be voting and a canvessing team knocking on doors.From Labour I have received 2 (two) pieces of addressed mail from the candidate and a leaflet none of which if I remember correctly mentioned Jeremy Corbyn by name.Before the local election I thought that UKIP being as they had a local standing could have pulled of a shock,but as it appears as if since Nigel leaving the scene their impact has declined it will be a two horse race.
    Prediction depends on turn out: the lower it is the more likely a Conservative win,or more accuratly the lower turn out in Dagenham the and Rainham part generally has a larger turn out.Think it will end up a Labour hold but with a very reduced majority.

  4. Demographics: In the last ten years or so there has been a large influx of Eastern Europeans and what I would have called in the 1960’s as French West Africains,how many of these have voting rights I have no idea.

  5. Con gain.

  6. Nevermind, it’s been changed to Lab hold! Lol!

  7. Current bookies odds:
    CON 5/6
    LAB 5/6
    BXP 20/1

  8. Should be another interesting seat on the night.

  9. Fast-changing demographics make this pretty tough for the Tories IMO. Labour is the value bet.

  10. How much can the demographics realistically have shifted in two years, though?

  11. The demographics were already tough for the Tories in 2015 and 2017.

  12. They were but any demographic change before 2017 is already priced in.

    This is a seat the Tories win if they “draw” the campaign. But so far, it’s been a bit of a trash fire, hasn’t it?

  13. “This is a seat the Tories win if they “draw” the campaign.”

    Disagree. I don’t think they’ll win it unless they get a majority of more than 30 or 40, ie do measurably better than 2015 or 1992.

  14. I meant “draw the campaign” as in, “hold their current lead until polling day”. Which would give them a fifty-plus majority.

  15. Despite the MRP showing Tories ahead by 1 Labour is telling campaigners it’s safe and to go to Chingford. You Gov did underestimate Labour here in 2015 and 2017 but still.

  16. Hate to say I told you so Polltroll.

    D&R flatters to deceive for the Tories yet again.

  17. At least he, Cryer et al held on (to contribute to the debate).

    Although it must only leave 5 Leavers on the Lab benches, with Skinner losing and Ronnie et al retiring.

    Amazed that the broadcast media are talking up Lammy, Thornberry and Rayner as the choice for next Leader!

    Though tbf I doubt anyone sensible would want that job for the next decade.

    I honestly don’t think any of the Shadow Cabinet could win back Blackpool, Bolton, Bury. As Prof Goodwin said on Newsnight: Lab members won’t talk about restricting immigration or being patriotic cos they think it’s racist.

  18. Couple of first time labour mp’s were leavers as well. Paula Barker in Wavertree and Rachel Hopkins (Daughter of Kelvin) in Luton South. Might be others.

    (My wifi is back yah)

  19. Not sure about bury- both narrow loses (I thought South would be a bloodbath)

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