Croydon South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 31448 (54.5%)
Labour: 14308 (24.8%)
Lib Dem: 3448 (6%)
Green: 2154 (3.7%)
UKIP: 6068 (10.5%)
Others: 286 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17140 (29.7%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Croydon council area.

Main population centres: Purley, Coulson, Selsdon.

Profile: A seat in the far south of London that has more in common with residential Surrey than the inner city. Apart from Waddon in the north of the seat, which contains a large council estate and tower blocks and sometimes returns Labour councillors, this seat consists of affluent, leafy dormitory suburbs for Croydon and London, places like Coulson, Purley, Sanderstead and Selsdon (the site of the 1969 meeting that set free-market policies for the Conservative party and lead to the phrase "Selsdon man" and the later founding of the Selsdon Group).

Politics: This is a safe Conservative seat, held by the Tories since its creation in 1974 (the previous Croydon South seat, once held by Labour`s David Winnick, is a different seat that corresponds to what is now Croydon Central).


Current MP
RICHARD OTTAWAY (Conservative) Born 1945, Bristol. Educated at Backwell School and Bristol University. Former Royal Naval Officer and solicitor. First elected as MP for Croydon South in 1992.
Past Results
2010
Con: 28684 (51%)
Lab: 11287 (20%)
LDem: 12866 (23%)
UKIP: 2504 (4%)
Oth: 981 (2%)
MAJ: 15818 (28%)
2005*
Con: 25320 (52%)
Lab: 11792 (24%)
LDem: 10049 (21%)
UKIP: 1054 (2%)
Oth: 682 (1%)
MAJ: 13528 (28%)
2001
Con: 22169 (49%)
Lab: 13472 (30%)
LDem: 8226 (18%)
UKIP: 998 (2%)
Oth: 195 (0%)
MAJ: 8697 (19%)
1997
Con: 25649 (47%)
Lab: 13719 (25%)
LDem: 11441 (21%)
Oth: 759 (1%)
MAJ: 11930 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS PHILP (Conservative) Born 1976, London. Educated at St Olaves Grammar School and Oxford University. Entrepreneur. Camden councillor 2006-2010. Contested Hampstead and Kilburn 2010.
EMILY BENN (Labour)
GILL HICKSON (Liberal Democrat)
KATHLEEN GARNER (UKIP)
PETER UNDERWOOD (Green) Former civil servant.
JON BIGGER (Class War)
MARK SAMUEL (Putting Croydon First)
Links
Comments - 294 Responses on “Croydon South”
  1. ” I strongly disagree that the Tories will ever control Croydon again unless there is a Tory landslide year of 1982 proportions”

    I can see that it’s moving that way but I also think that if Labour are in the same dire situation in 2018 then there is a chance the Tories might take the council for one final time. They only require a 2% swing in the Waddon and Ashburton wards to take the council. Labour were in a better position in 2014 under Miliband than at the moment.

  2. I should also add that a new 700 house estate is going up in Coulsdon West over the next couple of years. People are just moving into the first phase now. This is going further increase the size of this ward and I can only imagine increase the Tory vote share further (I’ve had a look around the show houses)…. We could be in a position soon where the Tories win the vote share but end up with less councillors. This wasn’t far off happening last time.

  3. “The results in Croydon in 2014 were exactly the same as 1994.”

    In 1994 Labour had a 12% national lead in 2014 it was only 2%.

  4. I disagree with Surrey Politics’ characterisation of Merton. Both Raynes Park and Wimbledon Park are safer than Dundonald and so on his criteria would be considered ultra-safe. Wimbledon is one of the few seats that provides ward by ward box counts for general elections and they show that the Conservatived led Labour 54-21 in Raynes Park 56-24 in Wimbledon Park and 49-23 in Dundonald (so which is therefore the ward that best mimics the seat as a whole).

  5. If the Conservatives won every ward in Wimbledon they would have exactly half the seats in the Borough. To get an outright majority they would need a MM ward.

    That ward used to be Lower Morden but it seems to be drifting away. To get a really good majority would require further MM wards which now seems very tough.

  6. Anyone know if they will be releasing the London Assembly results and turnout by ward? Looks like the Tories added 10k extra votes and Labour 8k since 2012 in Croydon and Sutton. Would like to how this breaks down across wards.

  7. London Elects usually release it in spreadsheet form though it normally takes a couple of weeks

  8. I never found that Mayoral breakdown vote by GLA seat you referred to on there – only a bar chart format.

  9. Damn it. Wrong login .

    Can you paste the link of it HH?

  10. Now THAT was amusing…..

  11. The Tories increased their majority in Croydon and Sutton.. Now around 12000. Therefore I think The Tories must have won in Croydon… Will have to wait for the figures to come out

  12. I thought something was off. Why would Gloy of all people be complaining about only bar charts were available 🙂

    Surrey Manc- possibly- could it not be that the Liberal Democrats of Sutton came over in their droves to the Conservatives?

  13. *Why would Gloy of all people be complaining about only bar charts being available 🙂

  14. Max – I’m looking at the Constituency Member results. According to London Elects the majority is 11,614.

    Tory – Looking at the results, the LD vote only declined by a few thousand so I don’t think this can account for all of it. Either there was a big increase in turnout or the figures on their website are wrong

    2012
    Con – 60,152
    Lab – 50,174
    LD – 21,889

    2016
    Con – 70,156
    Lab – 58,542
    LD – 18,859

  15. Joe James B

    I’m not sure whether the link is still active. I did download and save the spreadsheets for 2004, 2008 and 2012 when they were available though, as I presume did multiple people on here including Andy JS.

  16. Yeah! Although I think you may be right about Labour winning Croydon. In 2012 the Labour candidate won Croydon by 484 votes. Given the fact that the Tories are doing better in Sutton (at the expense of the LD’s) there is a good chance that Labour have increased their majority in Croydon but this was more than compensated by a better Conservative result in Sutton.

  17. Max – Yeah it will be interesting to see how Croydon Central voted. In 2012 the Tories carried the Constituency Member vote by just 30 votes in Croydon Central….. we’ll just have to wait for them to release the ward breakdown

    2012
    Con – 8680
    Lab – 8650

  18. “In all the other seats they hold currently at Westminster apart from Croydon Central I imagine they led.”

    I’m not sure that’s true, at least for the GLA votes. There must be some chance Labour were slightly ahead in Battersea given the result in Merton & Wandsworth, ditto Hendon in Barnet & Camden. We’ll know soon enough anyhow.

  19. Okay I thought I might as well post my predictions for my own seat. As it’s a safe seat most of you can probably ignore as it’s not that interesting!

    Labour – Overachieved last time due to shocking Lib Dem performance. In recent elections (excluding 2015) the anti Tory vote has tended to coalesce behind the Lib Dems and I can see a slight reversion to this pattern. I don’t see much evidence of demographic change in Croydon having much impact at the moment. The vast majority of this seat is still pretty wealthy suburbia.
    LibDems – Again they should recover somewhat and pick up some Remain voters.
    UKIP – Can see their support falling away
    Tory – Will probably pick up UKIP and a few Labour votes, but then lose some to the Lib Dems. Overall, given the national picture, I expect them to be very slightly up.

    Tory – 56% (+2)
    Lab – 18% (-7)
    LD – 16% (+10)
    UKIP – 6% (-5)
    Others 4%

    Depending on turnout, this would given them a majority of around 20k.

    We’ll see how close I am in about 7 weeks!

  20. Labour candidate for GE2017 is Jennifer Brathwaite.

  21. Finally received a Labour leaflet through the door. One slight problem…….Elect Emina Ibrahim, Carshalton and Wallington! Fair enough it’s the neighbouring constituency but quite an expensive mistake if the whole of Coulsdon have received these…. would this be an error by Royal Mail rather than Labour?

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