Croydon North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12149 (22.7%)
Labour: 33513 (62.6%)
Lib Dem: 1919 (3.6%)
Green: 2515 (4.7%)
UKIP: 2899 (5.4%)
TUSC: 261 (0.5%)
Independent: 141 (0.3%)
Others: 125 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 21364 (39.9%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Croydon council area.

Main population centres: Croydon, Norbury, Thornton Heath, Upper Norwood, South Norwood.

Profile: This is the most urban and inner-city in character of the three Croydon seats, with large areas of dense terrace housing and municipal tower blocks. It is by far the most diverse of the Croydon seats. In the 2011 census almost two-thirds of the population were non-white and at 31% it had the second highest proportion of black residents of any constituency in the country.

Politics: The north Croydon seats were once reliably Conservative, but demographic change and the growth in the ethnic minority population has moved them decisively into the Labour column and it can now be regarded as a very safe Labour seat.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in LAB HOLD. For full details see here.

Current MP
STEVE REED (Labour) Born 1963. Educated at Sheffield University. Lambeth councillor. Leader of Lambeth council 2006-2012. First elected as MP for Croydon North in 2012 by-election.
Past Results
Con: 12466 (24%)
Lab: 28947 (56%)
LDem: 7226 (14%)
GRN: 1017 (2%)
Oth: 2020 (4%)
MAJ: 16481 (32%)
Con: 9667 (22%)
Lab: 23555 (54%)
LDem: 7560 (17%)
GRN: 1248 (3%)
Oth: 1817 (4%)
MAJ: 13888 (32%)
Con: 9752 (23%)
Lab: 26610 (64%)
LDem: 4375 (10%)
UKIP: 606 (1%)
Oth: 539 (1%)
MAJ: 16858 (40%)
Con: 14274 (27%)
Lab: 32672 (62%)
LDem: 4066 (8%)
Oth: 396 (1%)
MAJ: 18398 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
VIDHI MOHAN (Conservative) Born India. Transport consultant. Croydon councillor since 2005.
STEVE REED (Labour) See above.
JOANNA CORBIN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Oxford Brookes University. Lawyer.
WINSTON MCKENZIE (UKIP) Born 1953, Jamacia. Former amateur boxer, hairdresser and publican. Contested Brent East 2003 by-election as independent, Croydon North 2005 for Veritas, London Mayoral election 2008 as Independent, Tottenham 2010 and Croydon North 2012 by-election for UKIP.
SHASHA KHAN (Green) Born Islington. Director in a family business and runs a dance music record label. Contested Croydon North 2005, 2010, 2012 by-election.
BEN STEVENSON (Communist Party GB)
LEE BERKS (Independent)
Comments - 118 Responses on “Croydon North”
  1. Emily Benn has been selected as one of the Labour candidates for West Thornton in the local elections next year.

  2. Another grandaughter of a famous leftie is standing for Labour in the council elections next year.

    Joani Reid, grandaughter of the legendary Scottish Trade Unionist, Jimmy Reid, is standing in Lewisham in Lewisham Central ward for Labour.

  3. I have to admit that as long as she is a good councillor I’m not bothered about who she is related to…even if it is Tony Benn.

  4. i thought she wanted to be an mp

  5. I know West Thornton Ward pretty well and I know that she went to school (a selective grammar in Sutton) not far from the ward but disappointed that not more candidates from the real grassroots (bar insider connections) have been selected. Forget Unite vs Progress, It’s frustrating to see “normal” people being passed over for those within the political bubble.

  6. “i thought she wanted to be an mp”

    Given she’s barely in her 20s, getting first elected as a Cllr is wise move into that direction.

  7. Perhaps the Greens could benefit in seats with a high LD vote and large Labour majority like this, taking the anti Labour and liberal/protest votes like the LDs would have continued to do had they followed their principles?

  8. Change the record please – how many seats have you posted these overtly hopeful messages, that somehow the Greens will break through all over the place.

    Other than Brighton Pavilion (which I think they will hold), Norwich S, Cambridge, Lewisham Deptford, Hackney N and Holborn & St Pancras, I don’t see the Greens getting more than 10%.

  9. Hackney North? That’s not one I was aware of, cool. Yes I know I might seem obsessed with regards to Green prospects so I’ll try to tone it down a bit- just hearing that we could take over from the LDs who before 2010 mostly aligned with my views has got me a bit hyped up haha. But here’s to 2020! 🙂

  10. The Greens nearly managed 10% there in 2005, have had councillors in recent times, and with a decent candidate could get 10% again. That would probably still only leave them in 4th.

    As for here, I think Shasha Khan is a decent candidate, but would struggle to get 5% here (the 2 Norwood wards seem to be the best Green areas in the seat)

  11. So the ‘collapse’ in LD support going around isn’t very accurate then?

  12. Greens have a bit of potential here, around Upper Norwood, which is part of the emerging trendy muesli eating belt stretching from Brockley to East Dulwich, Forest Hill and Crystal Palace.

    But Upper Norwood is only a minority of the seat, the rest of which is gritty and increasingly down at heel. The Lib Dem vote here contained a lot of Asian voters who will go back to Labour next time. No potential at all for the Greens to do much better than 2-3% overall.

  13. Thanks Hemmelig for your very fresh and honest analysis, I appreciate it. Thanks. When talking generally across the country, do you believe most of any fall of the LD vote will go to Labour as I thought many LDs were lefties/protest voters who felt Labour was now too far right?

  14. Depends on the seat, even in London.

    The Lib Dem strongholds in SW London, for example, will be very different to here.

  15. So is assuming LD voters in so called strongholds to be lefty voters and LDs in say very Labour London as protest voters a fair judgement to make?

  16. Kokopops – hasn’t Joe Dromey been selected for a ward in Lewisham too

  17. “So is assuming LD voters in so called strongholds to be lefty voters and LDs in say very Labour London as protest voters a fair judgement to make?”

    No. In “strongholds” a lot of former Tories vote Lib Dem, and often a lot of current Tories vote tactically for them. Bermondsey is a good example of that, Hornsey also.

  18. Damn.

  19. I assume that the Monster Raving Looney Candidate in the by election (John Cartwright) is no relation to the former SDP MP for Woolwich?

  20. Quite a common name I think.

    John has defected to the Tories now….and apart from his barmy views on North Korea he seems too sensible to be a true loony, certainly he is more knowledgeable than anyone else on here about Croydon.

  21. I’m pretty sure this was asked on the old site and the answer was that he was not. As far as I can tell the only similarity between the two besides the name is that they both defected from Loony parties – the Woolwich one defecting from the Loony Left Labour party of the early 1980s to the SDP and the Croydon one recently defecting from the Monster Raving Loony party to the Conservatives

  22. Someone of your views might say that both of them defected to the SDP 🙂

  23. If the Labour Party had been THAT left-wing it would have course elected Tony Benn as deputy leader in 1981. Had the SDP not been formed Healey’s victory over Benn would have been a little larger though it would still have been relatively close. Michael Foot was a lot more right-wing by his time as leader than he had been earlier in his career.

  24. This should form one of the 17-21 areas in London where the Greens hold their deposit.
    LAB 61
    CON 20
    LD 6
    UKIP 6
    GRN 5
    OTH 2

  25. I think you are overstating UKIP substantially in these inner urban seats – I would add 3 to LD and take 3 off UKIP

  26. Really? With a 12% UKPR average, is predicting 50% of that to translate into actual votes- much less than average- unreasonable?

  27. I used 2010 vote share for predictions but of course there was a by election. I reckon the LDs will recover slightly, the very high Labour vote will slip back a bit, UKIP will slide back and the Tory decline will slow. The Greens however seem to be on an upward trend with almost 4%- their highest ever here, higher even than 2005. My revised prediction is:
    LAB 61
    CON 13
    LD 9
    GRN 8
    UKIP 4

  28. You think the Conservatives will go down 12% here? Really?

  29. Only 4%- they scored 17% in the Nov 2012 by-election.

  30. I really don’t understand your logic – so the fact they polled about 8% in Barnsley C byelection would mean you would predict they would get 4% in 2015?

  31. No the Tory vote decreased 7% from 2010 to 2012 and as I said, I think the Tory vote will probably decrease further- but at a slower rate. 4% decrease is slower than 7% decrease. If the Tories were to recover nationally more than they are currently, then a stagnation or 1-2% increase might be more accurate.

  32. Tories are down to a bare minimum core vote here, it won’t be less than 20%

  33. 20/21 would seem about right.

  34. The Tories always do a bit better in seats with a lot of Asian voters such as this as opposed to those with just mainly black voters because a fair number of middle-class Asian people vote Conservative whereas that isn’t true for black people.

  35. Your first prediction was the more plausible I think, something like

    Lab 60
    Con 20
    LD 10
    Grn 4
    UKIP 3
    Oth 3

  36. So you think the by election is a bit of an outlier compared to the general trends?

  37. It’s usual for the government to do badly in a mid term by election…in fact 17% wasn’t all that bad really, with very little effort. As I said, it reflects the fact that the Tories are ground right down to a pretty irreducible core vote in many of these safe Labour seats in London, much of the adverse demographic change having happened here so things can’t get much worse for them.

  38. So the Tories have sort of hit rock bottom so to speak and they will bounce back up as a result?

  39. They won’t bounce back here no, their vote share will be lower in 2015 compared with 2010 but not below 20%.

  40. @Matt

    Although in general I don’t think such a seat is fertile ground for UKIP but I think Croydon (and Croydon North) may be more unique in that it depends on the candidate selection. If the UKIP candidate is Winston McKenzie, i can see UKIP come third again, as I think they did in the by election last year. McKenzie family are quite a known family in Croydon as they have made a name for themselves in the Boxing World and beyond and again they get featured occasionally in the local press. I think UKIP would save their deposit, unless something drastic happens to nosedive their “popularity”.

  41. @Windsofchange Shasha Khan, the Green candidate is quite a prominent campaigner in Croydon especially due to his vocal criticisms of the incinerator, going to be built just outside the constituency but due to wind, will affect Croydon. Unfortunately the Greens did not do well at the by election, which I think was really undeserved, just because unlike the winning candidate, Shasha Khan has a history for standing up for Croydon, especially in terms of environment but other issues too.

  42. @Kokopops. I know 3.5% isn’t a great score, but it’s the Green’s highest ever here- even bigger than 2005 and with a much increased national vote share (whose effects will be more prominent in London). Plus even on a reduced score of 2% in 2010, this was still one of the best Green performances, so surely these are encouraging signs?

  43. The movement to Labour here was evident as early as 1987, with William Pitts 1983 vote collaspsing in that direction that year.

  44. yes, the seats of Croydon NW & neighbouring Streatham were Labour’s best results in London in 1987 in terms of positive swing.

  45. Interesting piece about William Pitt in Wikipedia –

    “In 1996 Pitt joined the Labour Party, disillusoned with the Liberal Democrats and concerned to prevent Jonathan Aitken holding his seat in Thanet South. He campaigned for Labour in Thanet and for Malcolm Wicks in Croydon North in the 1997 general election. He retired from full-time employment in August 2003 having been Head of Training for the Canary Wharf Group and is now the Managing Director of Epec Management Services Limited, a Management and Environmental Advice Consultancy. In 2005 he became editor of the Norwood Review, the newsletter of the Norwood Society.”

    I was unaware that he had left the Lib Dems.

  46. “the seats of Croydon NW & neighbouring Streatham were Labour’s best results in London in 1987 in terms of positive swing.”

    Dulwich was a good Labour result as well and would have been a gain on the 1979 boundaries.

    I dare say that demographic change was the basis of these three results.

  47. Labour made some advance in Hornsey & Wood Green, and to a lesser extent, Hampstead & Highgate, but am struggling to think of any other decent Labour performances in 1987 in London.

  48. They reduced Simon Hughes’ majority to 2,779 which is the smallest majority he’s ever had.

  49. I forgot about Southwark & Bermonsey (as it was then) – they did ok in Norwood too with a swing to Labour

  50. @WINDSOFCHANGE, the real areas of Green strength in the early 1990s used to be in Stroud and Leominster – the areas of Brighton they now win we’re mostly solidly Labour, though the Tories won all but 3 wards in 1992. What happened to them? You don’t hear of Greens winning in those places any more.

    The real breakthrough for Labour came here in 1986, when they won all except Norbury and Beulah in the North West seat, consolidating in 1990, and took most of North East in 1994. It is hard to fathom that Labour only won New Addington and Fieldway in 1982. My paternal Grandmother was in a nursing home in Thornton Heath until the 1980s. Knowing what the area was like, it is hard to think of it having votedConservative even in those days.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)