Coventry North West
2015 Result:
Conservative: 14048 (31%)
Labour: 18557 (41%)
Lib Dem: 1810 (4%)
Green: 1961 (4.3%)
UKIP: 7101 (15.7%)
TUSC: 1769 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 4509 (10%)
Category: Safe Labour seat
Geography: West Midlands,. contained within the Metropolitan Borough of Coventry.
Main population centres: Coventry, Allesley, Keresley.
Profile: The North Western part of Coventry and the most rural of the three seats - in the South and East Coventry`s boundary is drawn quite tightly around the built up are but to the West it includes open fields and the villages of Keresley and Allesley. This is the site of much of Coventry`s industrial and manufacturing past - the Jaguar motor works used to be based here, but have now mainly been moved to the Whitley faxility in Coventry South, Coventry colliery in Keresley has long since been replaced by a distribution factory and the former Dunlop factory is now operated by Meggitt plc.
Politics: This is a relatively safe Labour seat - while Labour have not piled up overwhelming majorities it has remained Labour even in bad years like 1983. As of 2012 the area has only had two MPs since the war - Maurice Edelman represented Coventry West, Coventry North and Coventry North West sucessively from 1945 until his death in 1975. Geoffrey Robinson won the subsequent by-election and has represented the seat ever since.
| Con: | 13648 (29%) |
| Lab: | 19936 (43%) |
| LDem: | 8344 (18%) |
| BNP: | 1666 (4%) |
| Oth: | 2966 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 6288 (14%) |
| Con: | 11627 (27%) |
| Lab: | 20942 (48%) |
| LDem: | 7932 (18%) |
| BNP: | 1556 (4%) |
| Oth: | 1381 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 9315 (21%) |
| Con: | 11018 (26%) |
| Lab: | 21892 (51%) |
| LDem: | 5832 (14%) |
| UKIP: | 650 (2%) |
| Oth: | 3159 (7%) |
| MAJ: | 10874 (26%) |
| Con: | 14300 (26%) |
| Lab: | 30901 (57%) |
| LDem: | 5690 (10%) |
| Oth: | 2162 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 16601 (31%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
LAB HOLD MAJ : 23%
LAB 47
CON 24
LD 12
UKIP 8
OTH 5
GRN 4
Geoffrey Robinson is going to retire it appears , wonder how this will pan out in the seat http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-mp-geoffrey-robinson-set-8925898.
Isnt this the seat which Euan Blair has been sniffing around?
At this stage I guess a candidate will be imposed centrally. What an ideal opening for a Red Prince!
It now appears that Geoffrey Robinson is not standing down after all …
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/29/labour-mp-geoffrey-robinson-not-quitting-ed-miliband-strategy-director
.. I think!!!
It’s almost as if Labour are trying to lose votes to other candidates such as Dave Nellist who’s standing here for the first time.
I wonder if Nellist can keep his deposit here like he managed to do for many elections in Coventry South and North East?
It’s the worst seat in Coventry for a left-winger to stand but maybe he wants to see what will happen.
Just based on his name recognition in the city, he could manage a thousand votes without even trying. But yes realistically given it’s got good demographics for UKIP, he might not get as much here.
The Labour Party should have no problem in Coventry. The old Coventry SW seat was marginal and would still be, as the Conservative council seats are in that party of the City. The Labour Party regained control of Coventry after a very rare period of Conservative rule in 2010.
Coventry’s last local election showed strong support for UKIP in some traditionally safe wards.
There cannot be many other seats with just two MP’s since 1945.
Labour Hold. 12,000 majority.
TUSC’s top 25 results:
Coventry North West 1,769
Tottenham 1,324
Bethnal Green & Bow 949
Coventry South 650
Coventry North East 633
Liverpool Riverside 582
Barnsley Central 573
Walsall North 545
Leigh 542
Leicester East 540
Salford & Eccles 517
Bootle 500
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 442
Don Valley 437
Doncaster Central 421
Rotherham 409
Southampton Test 403
Walthamstow 394
Lewisham West & Penge 391
Jarrow 385
Worsley & Eccles South 380
Stoke-on-Trent South 372
Greenwich & Woolwich 370
Poplar & Limehouse 367
Barnsley East 364
This and Coventry South were actually quite poor results for Labour. Could it be that both are slowly trending away, while Coventry NE is their most secure seat?
Is Coventry North-West really safe for Labour? The majority is 10% and it is Number 48 on the Conservatives’ target list. I would have thought that semi-marginal is a better description.
Geoffrey Robinson will be over 80 in 2020, so he may well stand down.
Video report on the 1976 Coventry NW by-election:
“Geoffrey Robinson, the 36 year old whizz-kid from Oxford and Yale…”
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/watch-unseen-footage-coventry-north-9710037
@Andy JS
Great footage there. Thanks for sharing!
I have jsut been positing on the Coventry South thread about issues relating to individual elector registration. Could I point out that similar issues arise in this seat. If the new electoral registration rules had been in place in May, this seat could very definitely have emerged in the marginal category.
As in Coventry South, the MP here is aging. The major parties, e.g. Conservative and UKIP, would be advised to inquire carefully as to whereabouts in the constituency voters have been removed from the register and for whom, according to canvass returns, they voted. If there were to be a by-election (and I am not wishing any ill towards the current MP) this could become a major issue.
Be interesting to see if Geoffrey Robinson – who would be 84 in 2022 – decides to call it a day at this election. Given his background as a millionaire businessman and close chum of Gordon Brown, he hardly seems a perfect fit in a Corbyn led Labour party.
This seat – and Coventry South – both have outer Conservative wards and inner Labour wards. Robinson did very well to hold the seat during the high tide of Thatcherism but, should he retire and take some personal vote with him, this could be a long shot Conservative target.
5% swing needed – if Robinson goes then it wouldn’t shock me to see it turn blue, though it would still be a surprise
I hadn’t known that Dave Nellist stood here and actually got a statically non-negligible vote share. I’m guessing this was the TUSC’s best result in the country. With the direction the Labour Party has since taken, we might as well notionally add Nellist’s 4% onto Labour’s majority.
Conservatives have selected Resham Kotecha as their candidate. Kotecha is a strategy adviser by profession. She is Head of Engagement for Women2Win, and fought the Dulwich and West Norwood constituency in the 2015 General Election. She serves as the Deputy Chair of Northwood Conservatives. (Bio Source conservativehome.com)