According to Wikipedia “On 7 December 2012 Ainsworth announced his intention not to stand at the next general election”

This is a plumb Labour seat.

Matt, local paper run a piece today saying Labour NEC have indeed opted for an AWS.

As for runners and riders, they mentioned

Cllr Colleen Fletcher (who has already expressed her intention to run)
Cllr Faye Abbott
Cllr Maya Ali
Dr Randhir Auluck (who works at Coventry University)
Ruth Smeeth (2010 Burton candidate)
Ayesha Hazarika (former Harriet’s SpAd)

Local paper reports the names of applicants for Labour selection. 14 women:

Colleen Fletcher (Coventry Cllr)
Maya Ali (Coventy Cllr)
Faye Abbott (Coventy Cllr)
Pat Seaman (former union rep for youth workers in Coventry)
Randhir Auluck (works at Coventry University)
Christine Thomas (local party member)
Ruth Smeeth (Burton 2010 candidate, former NEC candidate)
Ayesha Hazarika (former SpAd to Harriet)
Catherine Tite (from Wolverhampton)
Doreen McCalla (North East Derbyshire)
Puneet Grewal (Brentford and Isleworth, tried selection there too)
Roseanna Kirk (Lincoln)
Deborah Sangster (Leicester Cllr)
Savita Sehdev (Wolverhampton, previously shortlisted for High Peak and Grevesham and also tried in Stourbridge)

ops, misread it. Only 12 names. Smeeth and Hazarika were mentioned but didn’t apply in the end. The others listed in the above comment are those in the race.

Not a bad result for Bob Ainsworth here – especially in light of the highly personalised attacks he was subjected to by the right wing press in an almost daily basis whilst Seretary of State for the Armed Forces and Defence

Sehdev has also applied to us in Richmond Park – a somewhat less safe Labour seat than Coventry NE!

Labour shortlist

Faye Abbott
Randhir Auluck
Colleen Fletcher
Pat Seaman

Anyone know when the Labour selection will take place?

Reading posts from Andrea above, only 12 applicants for a safe Labour constituency which will more or less guarantee the winner of the selection a seat for life seems very few. Is there something offputting about this constituency to ambitious Labour women?

Selection will take place on Sat 14 Dec

Many thanks Andrea.

Still unclear as to why there were only 12 applicants.

One the face of it, it seems a ludicrously low number for a very safe seat.

http://www.coventryobserver.co.uk/2013/11/14/news-Female-councillor-Colleen-Fletcher-front-runner-in-Coventry-MP-race-Bob-Ainsworth-89734.html

According to this local report, Colleen Fletcher is the favourite. I think this was written just before the final shortlist.

Mentions that her closest competition comes from Randhir Auluck.

@Neil

They have written another piece after shortlisting. Basically the same info adding that it is thought Ainsworth backs Fletcher.

@James Martin

I believe it would be interesting to see full stats on applications per seats. It’s not the first time I see low number of applications for safe seats

For ex, Greenwich and Woolwich recent selection attracted 24 applicants (and it was an open shortlist). Maybe some contenders were put off by strong early runners entering the race.

Lewisham Deptford AWS selection earlier this year got 17-18 applications. And it was a London seat.

Hampstead and Kilburn had 10 women joining the race.

In the past I recall similar lowish numbers for some AWS seats: IIRC something between 15 and 20 for Durham North West last time.

In this round of selections, I’ve seen 12 applications for AWS Weaver Vale, 4 for Brighton Kemptown (AWS), 3 for Pavillion (another AWS, run at the same time of Kemptown which probably explains the very low numbers). 18 people for the open selection in Hove.

Less winnable Gravesham got 12 applications.

The Labour selection with more runners I’ve seen so far in this parliament is probably Brent Central with 30-40 people.

Thanks. I’d assumed that nearly all safe or winnable seats would attract a high level of interest similar to Brent Central.

As you suggest, perhaps another factor is that seats in the regions are seen by some as less desirable than London constituencies although Hampstead and Highgate doesn’t prove this.

James the low number of applicants for the Coventry North East long list is caused by a combination of AWS selection and because candidates know full well only local people will be considered for nomination.

Colleen Fletcher won Labour selection. She has been a Coventry councillor from 1992 to 2000, then from 2002 to 2004 and again since 2011.

LAB HOLD MAJ : 35%
LAB 53
CON 18
LD 11
UKIP 8
OTH 8
GRN 2

The Labour Party selection process conspires against large numbers of people applying for selections. It’s 3 months’ work – many people take a 3 month sabbatical from work to work fulltime on the selection. Then there’s the actual cost of the selection process (leaflets, website etc.) Normal people can’t do it unless they’re confident of winning.

There’s often a lot of jiggery pokery for a candidate to work out whether they stand a chance of winning. If they think the answer’s “no” then they don’t bother – and run somewhere else. Unless you fancy a practice run it’s an enormous waste of time and resources to run an unsuccessful selection campaign.

There are lots of people out there who’ve run one unsuccessful selection campaign and have nothing left in them to try again. There are brave souls who have tried several times.

In Coventry North East there will have been LOADS of people who didn’t think they ever stood a chance…

I thought Blair’s son Euan was going to throw his hat into the ring here. Is he still looking for a safe seat for 2015?

prediction for 2015-

Lab- 54%
con- 20%
Lib- 12%
UKIP- 7%
Green- 3%
Socialist Alternative- 2%
BNP- 1%

A stunning change of demographics between 2001 and 2011 may see UKIP actually do a bit better than 7%.

Labour Hold. 15,000 majority.

This is probably how not to campaign on the doorstep:

https://www.facebook.com/touchpaper/videos/vb.820469868/10153210495849869/?type=3

This stands a good chance of being Labour’s only seat in Coventry after June.

Bob Ainsworth, former mp here, has revealed he voted for the Green Party last Thursday. Therefore he will soon be expelled.

On Thursday Upper Stoke ward held the last council by-election for a long time.

Turnout was 9%

Labour held the seat

Gurdev Singh Hayre (Lab) 639 votes(1538 last year)
Gurdeep Singh Sohal (Con) 350 (621)
Chrissie Brown (Green) 120 (394)
Jane Elzabeth Nellist (Socialist Alternative) 101 (no candidate last time)

UKIP polled 501 in 2019
Jane Nellist is the wife of Dave Nellist.

What was that – an 8% swing from Lab to Cons?

I’ve had a look through and all by-elections where turnout was sub 15% Labour have either lost the seat or had swings against them. They even managed to lose a ward in Lpool Walton in 1998!

Compared to 2019 it is a 3.1% swing. Compared to 2018 a 6.6% swing.