North Cornwall

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21689 (45%)
Labour: 2621 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 15068 (31.2%)
Green: 2063 (4.3%)
UKIP: 6121 (12.7%)
Mebyon Kernow: 631 (1.3%)
Others: 52 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6621 (13.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Former postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor. First elected as MP for Cornwall North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19531 (42%)
Lab: 1971 (4%)
LDem: 22512 (48%)
UKIP: 2300 (5%)
Oth: 530 (1%)
MAJ: 2981 (6%)
2005*
Con: 20766 (37%)
Lab: 6636 (12%)
LDem: 23842 (43%)
UKIP: 3063 (5%)
Oth: 1675 (3%)
MAJ: 3076 (5%)
2001
Con: 18250 (34%)
Lab: 5257 (10%)
LDem: 28082 (52%)
UKIP: 2394 (4%)
MAJ: 9832 (18%)
1997
Con: 17253 (29%)
Lab: 5523 (9%)
LDem: 31186 (53%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 13933 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor.
JOHN WHITBY (Labour) Retired business owner.
DAN ROGERSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975. Educated at Bodmin College and University of Wales. Liberal Democrat researcher and university admissions officer. Bedford councillor 1999-2002. Contested Bedfordshire North East 2001. MP for North Cornwall 2005 to 2015. Under Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2013.
JULIE LINGARD (UKIP)
AMANDA PENNINGTON (Green) Director of a renewable energy network.
JERRY JEFFRIES (Mebyon Kernow) Cornish language teacher and former serviceman.
JOHN ALLMAN (Restore the Family)
Links
Comments - 146 Responses on “Cornwall North”
  1. “On the issues that UKIP most prominently campaign on, they are as far apart from the Lib Dems as Old Labour and Thatcherites were on the public sector and taxation.”

    No.

    Perhaps UKIP’s biggest campaign issue, aside from Europe and immigration, is “they’re all the same, vote for someone different”.

    That was basically a Lib Dem slogan up to 2010. As Runnymede has said, the none-of-the-above element to the Lib Dem vote has previously been enormous in certain areas, and it has now collapsed to UKIP.

  2. Yep. Anyone who has canvassed in these areas knows that a large share of the old Lib Dem vote often had only the most tenuous grasp of what the party stood for (nationally, at least) and sometimes had completely the wrong idea.

    It wasn’t uncommon even in 2010 down my way to get people saying they intended to vote ‘for Paddy Ashdown’.

  3. This is one of the few seats where the anti-Tory vote does traditionally go to the Liberals, then LibDems.

  4. This was a bad result in the Ashcroft poll for the Lib Dems. Although the Tories and Lib Dems are notionally tied, a UKIP unwind will probably benefit the Tories slightly more, giving them an edge. I’d thought this was the Lib Dems’ best chance for a hold in Cornwall, but increasingly I see St. Ives as the better bet.

  5. I still think the LDs will just about hold on here. Not sure about St Ives. The poll doesn’t look at all good for them there, nor does the rather surprising Labour revival in Penzance which won’t help them.

  6. I’m beginning to think there’s a significant faction in the Tory party, perhaps represented by Joe James Broughton on here, which regards national defeat in 2015 as a price well worth paying for regaining 10-15 Lib Dem seats. In preference to aiming for a continued Con-LD coalition.

    It could be argued that 2015 will be a good election to lose, and if the Lib Dems really are reduced back to 20-25 seats with their organisation wiped out across swathes of the country, the Tories’ fightback might well be easier in the long run. Though that could very easily be wishful thinking.

  7. That’s true, Hemmelig, but I don’t think 20-25 seats will happen. And Barnaby, I didn’t think the poll in St. Ives was so bad. One point back in a hyper-marginal isn’t bad.

  8. HH – I am not of that view – I want a Conservative victory at the next election and am working towards it. (Probably the only active Conservative poster on here.).

    I think the Government has some excellent achievements and it’s vital the Government continues it”s work now and in the immediate few years.

  9. About 35 seats for the LDs btw but that debate will continue.
    I think they could be very heavily defeated on share of vote now though (12%)

  10. What part of that comment conforms to the Comments Policy?

    However, I do think HH is a little off the mark. I know some Conservative activists and while they’d obviously like to win LD seats they’re not unhappy if they hold up where it stops Labour winning.

  11. I was answering a specific point about whether I wanted to see a Tory defeat for tactical /regroup longer term reasons or was supporting the Government now and next time,
    and gave a brief account for why I am doing the latter.

    Seems a bit silly to single that comment out for reference to the Comments Policy – and the question was a good one aswell.

  12. I like your posts by the way Mr Nameless.

  13. Perhaps I phrased my comment wrongly.

    I meant that JJB wouldperhaps prefer a dignified Tory defeat with the consolation prize of winning 10-15 LD seats to a renewed Con-LD coalition whereby the Lib Dems are by definition not so badly hammered. I am pre-supposing that a Tory majority isn’t a realistically possible outcome (I know Joe will disagree with me there).

  14. “I want a Conservative victory at the next election and am working towards it. (Probably the only active Conservative poster on here.).”

    Dalek is certainly an active Tory, Jason Harcourt is, allegedly 111 is too, so are a few occasional posters like Justin Hinchcliffe and David Douglas.

  15. JJB,

    Fair enough, and as it hasn’t caused any partisan bickering, consider it withdrawn.

  16. I can’t actually quite tell what the party makeup of this site is, which shows the comments policy does fairly well. Certainly there are a few fairly active Tories and quite a few fairly active Labour supporters, plus a few Greens and one or two Lib Dems.

  17. There are about an even number of campaigners for each of the big two, while the general tone of comment I think skews slightly leftwards (although from what I’ve heard this changes with the political situation at the time).

    We’ve got three or four Greens, a handful of Kippers and a couple of LDs.

  18. You can’t get much more active as a Labour Party worker than me – going through a particularly active phase at the moment. I was even told by my CLP Chair that I should be considered for a merit award, which is unheard of for someone of my youth (still well over a decade short of retirement). They wouldn’t give one to me for the foreseeable future. As stated on the appropriate thread, I canvassed in Ealing C & Acton on Thursday afternoon, before the football. The canvass seemed to be partly organized by Heidi Alexander (MP for Lewisham E), and Diane Abbott turned up to take part.

  19. I think there are a few people (Hemmelig, and myself, but I could be wrong about the former) whose vote changes from time to time, but who rarely (if ever) vote Labour, as well.

    There are obviously quite a few who aren’t diehard partisans for anyone. And I think I saw an SNP supporter at one point.

  20. I’m a bit nerdy in that I read the party manifestos just before the election and then decide who to vote for.

  21. Depends whether you also count Gloy Plopwell as a genuine Lib Dem activist aswell.

  22. I think that that would be something of a stretch, as you well know, Joe.

  23. Didn’t Gloy Plopwell stand for the Tories? I can’t remember.

  24. The LDs did quite well in 2013- carrying all the Bude, Bodmin, and Launceston wards with big leads. This looks like another south-west seat where the LDs do well in the towns and the Conservatives do well in the intervening rural areas. Bude in particular looks like a real LD stronghold.

  25. Bude is rather arty with a jazz festival. Not surprised it’s LD.

  26. prediction for 2015-

    Con- 39%
    Lib- 27%
    UKIP- 22%
    Lab- 6%
    MK- 3%
    Green- 3%

  27. I don’t think the gap between the first two parties will be as wide as that.

  28. No, it’ll be nothing like that. It is next to impossible that the Lib Dems will be doing WORSE in May than they are now. Ashcroft has shown them all tied up here, and it’s highly unlikely to think they’d dip that low. This seat has a long liberal history and UKIP likely won’t tear into the Lib Dems much more than the Tories, and it could well be the reverse. I fail to see any logic in your prediction.

    Perhaps this will be closer:

    LD 36
    Con 34
    UKIP 22
    Lab 5
    Oth 3

  29. I heard that Orlando Kimber has been selected as Mebyon Kernow’s PPC for this seat, which means that once again Mebyon Kernow are fielding candidates in all Cornish seats this year (I would personally have liked a Mebyon Kernow-Green pact for 2015, though).

    https://www.mebyonkernow.org/news/article.php?id=193&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  30. More about Orlando Kimber here
    https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/2015/01/12/north-cornwall-constituency-update-1-orlando-kimber-for-mk/

    Must be the first time MK has had a prominent CPRE member standing for them. With the Greens standing in all 6 Cornish constituencies it’s going to be hard for MK to save a deposit.

  31. My current prediction-
    Rogerson (Lib Dem)- 42%
    Mann (Conservative)- 36%
    Lingard (UKIP)- 14%
    Labour- 4%
    Pennington (Green)- 3%
    Willet (Mebyon Kernow)- 1%

  32. I agree with a LD hold in N Cornwall- a traditional Liberal stronghold. The 2013 local elections were very good for them too though I think Ashcroft’s CVI poll had the LDs and Conservatives neck and neck.

  33. John Whitby selected as Labour candidate:

    https://twitter.com/NCORNWALLCLP/status/572426635821129731

  34. brave man, in this constituency.

  35. I imagine he will not be doing much canvassing.

  36. I am going for a Tory gain of under 1000. I know the area quite well and whilst the 2013 locals were good for the liberals and they will certainly have a big lead in Bodmin and some of the other towns i think UKIP will take slightly more votes from the libs than the Tories (Cornwall being one of the few areas I think this will happen) and the solid Tory vote in the rural areas will see them scrap through..

    I think the Tory lib fight is going to be the most exciting part of election night as there is bound to be a massive shock Loss no one was predicting, Tories failing to take a few odds on favourites and potential for a lib dem gain in somewhere like Oxford west- worth staying up for

  37. I agree a recount is a strong possibility if the LDs don’t suddenly improve in the last few weeks.

  38. The Mebyon Kernow guy has a great name. The Tory PPC will presumably get to deliver the Freepost Election Communications here.

  39. Mebyon Kernow candidate’s name sounds like a cross between the theme park and a psephologist.

  40. But Lancs Observer, will he be able to deliver the seat here for his party?

  41. MK candidates:

    Camborne & Redruth: Loveday Jenkin.
    Cornwall N: Orlando Kimber.
    Cornwall SE: Andrew Long.
    St Austell & Newquay: Dick Cole.
    St Ives: Rob Simmons.
    Truro & Falmouth: Stephen Richardson.

  42. Loveday Jenkin even has her own Wikipedia page, which tells us (amongst other things) that she studied plant bioscience at Cardiff and Cambridge Universities:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loveday_Jenkin

  43. Orlando Kimber shares his surname with a highly respected psephologist, Richard Kimber, who has his fantastic Politics and Resources website.

  44. So MK have had 2 leaders with the Christian name Loveday. Is that a common name in this part of the world.

    After looking at here Wikipedia page, I’m pretty sure Loveday Jenkins would almost certainly be a Green candidate if she was standing in any other part of the country.

  45. I think that in England the Green Party are probably for many voters the nearest thing they have to the SNP in Scotland or Plaid Cymru in Wales if you know what I mean.

  46. I’m pretty sure I read somewhere this seat along with St. Ives has the most second homes properties anywhere in the UK as it contains the seaside town of Padstow which is popular with the niddle classes. Most of the owners of these second homes were from London and the Home Counties. I wonder if these second home owners will tactically use their vote (i.e. postal vote) to vote for the Tories here instead of their solid Tory seats where they usually based.

  47. @Christian

    Bernard Deacon has written on his blog that Cornwall is one of the few local authority areas where voter registration increased in 2014, since the new system was introduced. Within Cornwall, the biggest increase was in the North constituency.

    He goes on to say though that this is apparently because Cornwall Council was the only authority to use central government funding to temporarily employ people to visit all properties, including suspected second homes. So the council think that they now have the most accurate register.

    https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/2015/03/06/cornwall-bucks-trend-return-of-the-second-home-voter/

  48. It’s a bit early to be getting excuses in, isn’t it?

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