North Cornwall

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21689 (45%)
Labour: 2621 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 15068 (31.2%)
Green: 2063 (4.3%)
UKIP: 6121 (12.7%)
Mebyon Kernow: 631 (1.3%)
Others: 52 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6621 (13.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Former postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor. First elected as MP for Cornwall North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19531 (42%)
Lab: 1971 (4%)
LDem: 22512 (48%)
UKIP: 2300 (5%)
Oth: 530 (1%)
MAJ: 2981 (6%)
2005*
Con: 20766 (37%)
Lab: 6636 (12%)
LDem: 23842 (43%)
UKIP: 3063 (5%)
Oth: 1675 (3%)
MAJ: 3076 (5%)
2001
Con: 18250 (34%)
Lab: 5257 (10%)
LDem: 28082 (52%)
UKIP: 2394 (4%)
MAJ: 9832 (18%)
1997
Con: 17253 (29%)
Lab: 5523 (9%)
LDem: 31186 (53%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 13933 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor.
JOHN WHITBY (Labour) Retired business owner.
DAN ROGERSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975. Educated at Bodmin College and University of Wales. Liberal Democrat researcher and university admissions officer. Bedford councillor 1999-2002. Contested Bedfordshire North East 2001. MP for North Cornwall 2005 to 2015. Under Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2013.
JULIE LINGARD (UKIP)
AMANDA PENNINGTON (Green) Director of a renewable energy network.
JERRY JEFFRIES (Mebyon Kernow) Cornish language teacher and former serviceman.
JOHN ALLMAN (Restore the Family)
Links
Comments - 146 Responses on “Cornwall North”
  1. Rogerson got a decent result from my point of view here in 2010 against an equally rising Tory vote via tactical Labour votes-he had built up an incumbency vote and his having the largest majority of the Cornwall Lib Dems IMHO leaves him the least at risk to losing his seat in 2015, but I am not saying that it won’t happen.

  2. CON 44
    LD 36
    UKIP 10
    LAB 5
    OTH 5

  3. I don’t see why the LD’s should be so vulnerable at a general election – unless the SW think they would do better from a Tory-only government

  4. Unfortunately some LD tactical voting Tories and a protest/disenchantment Tory vote from quite a few LDs (which is more likely in the SW/East) will probably mean several seats like this would go Tory- or so I would have thought?

  5. The only way that the Tories could achieve a lead like that here would be if the Labour vote rose a lot more sharply. However, this is historically one of Labour’s very weakest seats in the land, and thus it’s less likely to happen here than on average. I’m not saying the Tories can’t win here, but if they do so it will be very close indeed.

  6. It doers seem funny that the Lib Dem majority has dropped from almost 14,000 in 2001 to just under 3,000 today which would suggest this seat is very much in play from a Tory point of view

    Had they mopped up the 2300 votes that went to the hardline UKIP, they could have taken it into recount territory – although one suspects their best shot was probably 2010

  7. I agree with Barnaby and Tim.

    Any Tory win here will be very close but I just cannot see it unless we can take votes away from UKIP in 2015.

    It would be nice to see a few of these LD South West seats falling to the Tories in 2015.

  8. There must have been a lot of LD->Tory transfers in the last decade, so I wouldn’t rule it out.

    LDs are clear favourites though.

  9. John Pardoe’s electoral record in North Cornwall-
    1. 1966- 18, 460 (48.50%, +4.69%, 1, 508 (3.96%) majority)
    2. 1970- 19, 863 (48.64%, +0.14%, 630 (1.54%) majority)
    3. February 1974- 25, 667 (57.90%, +9.26%, 8, 729 (19.69%) majority)
    4. October 1974- 21, 368 (51.25%, -6.65%, 3, 856 (9.25%) majority)
    5. 1979- 20, 742 (43.75%, -7.5%)

    Paul Tyler’s electoral record in North Cornwall-
    1. 1992- 29, 696 (47.4%, +5.5%, 1, 921 (3.1%) majority)
    2. 1997- 31, 100 (53.2%, +5.8%, 13, 847 (23.7%) majority)
    3. 2001- 28, 082 (52.0%, -1.2%, 9, 832 (18.2%) majority)

  10. Thought the above figures might be of Interest.

  11. The Lib Dems gained Wadebridge East in last night’s Cornwall Council by-election. The results were as follows:

    Lib Dems:408 (31.8%)
    Ind: 399 (31.1%)
    Con: 217 (16.9%)
    UKIP 202 (15.7%)
    Labour 58 (4.5%)

    This seat had been held by the controversial independent Colin Brewer, who had been returned in May 2013 by 4 votes over the Lib Dems on 25% of the poll.

  12. I think the Labour vote will probably double or triple in this seat next time around. The current MP is doomed to defeat as the tories will likely take it. Cameron seems to have visited this Lib Dem seat more than most and the birth of his daughter, he name incorporating a place within the constitiency seems like a co-ordinated effort for Cameron to help win this seat IMO.

  13. ‘I think the Labour vote will probably double or triple in this seat next time around. The current MP is doomed to defeat as the tories will likely take it.’

    I dount either of those things will happen

    Labour supporters who have tactically been voting Lib Dem will continue to do so if it’s the omly way of keeping the Tories out

    They might not like the coalition, but they would dislike a Tory majority government more

  14. I don’t think it’s even a case of tactical voting. For whatever reason, Labour have ALWAYS been very weak indeed in this constituency. I think Robert Waller said that 16% was the very highest figure the party has ever polled here – that surely must be the very lowest such figure anywhere in Britain. I don’t think many people in N Cornwall think of themselves as Labour supporters; it seems that they regard the LDs as their first choice if they are not Tories, basically. That being said, a modest rise in the Labour vote does seem likely.

  15. A closer look at the result here in February 1974-
    Pardoe (Liberal)- 25, 667 (57.90%, +9.26%)
    Gardner (Conservative)- 16, 938 (38.21%, -8.89%)
    Benjamin (Labour)- 1, 726 (3.89%, -0.37%)

    Majority- 8, 729 (19.69%)
    Swing- 9.075% From Con to Lib.

  16. A closer look at the result here in 1966-
    Pardoe (Liberal)- 18, 460 (48.50%, +4.69%)
    Scott-Hopkins (Conservative)- 16, 952 (44.54%, -1.14%)
    Wills (Labour)- 2, 647 (6.95%, -2.82%)

    Majority- 1, 508 (3.96%)
    Swing- +2.915% From Con to Lib.

  17. The Lib Dems gaining this seat in 1992 was not as surprising as I originally thought.

    In the BBC’s Election coverage that year, when the result here came through, David Dimbleby mentioned the Camelford Water Scandal which was favourable to the Lib Dems I think.

  18. A closer look at the result here in 1992-
    Tyler (Liberal Demcrat)- 29, 696 (47.41%, +5.55%)
    Neale (Conservative)- 27, 775 (44.34%, -7.36%)
    Jordan (Labour)- 4, 103 (6.55%, +0.11%)
    Andrews (Liberal)- 678 (1.08%, N/A)
    Rowe (Independent)- 276 (0.44%, N/A)
    Treadwell (Natural Law Party)- 112 (0.18%, N/A)

    Majority- 1, 921 (3.07%)
    Swing- +6.455% From Con to Lib Dem.

  19. Rogerson should be favourite to hold this in 2015.

    I would say that it looks like one of the Lib Dems’ safer bets in Cornwall, and has been held by three Liberal or Lib Dem MPs in the post-war period. While I would expect St. Austell and Newquay to be close either way, I think it’s now uncallable- As for St Ives, George could well be in trouble there, but for now I can’t call that either. I think Truro and Falmouth will stay Conservative, as will South East Cornwall and Camborne and Redruth, but for very different reasons.

  20. My prediction for 2015-
    Liberal Democrat- 40%
    Conservative- 36%
    UKIP- 13%
    Labour- 8%
    Mebyon Kernow- 2%
    Others- 1%

  21. I don’t see the Tories losing 6% of their vote share from 2010, and even current polling isn’t as bad as that. If that happens there will be a sizeable Labour overall majority.

    I would expect a result much closer to 2010, a Lib Dem hold by something like LD 45% to Con 40%.

    UKIP will be squeezed in the harder-fought marginal seats and there’s very little potential for Labour here.

  22. I think there were a few reasons why Paul Tyler gained this seat in 1992-
    1. The Liberals had arguably underperformed somewhat here in 1983 and 1987, although considering John Pardoe’s defeat had taken a lot of his personal vote with it, I guess it was unsurprising really that it took them 13 years to recover, though they didn’t even threaten Gerry Neale here in 1983 or 1987.
    2. They selected a very good candidate who clearly wanted to win the seat- Paul Tyler was used to marginal contests, having fought Bodmin (The eponymous town was later put in this seat when it was abolished) for the Liberals four times during the 1970’s, winning once by only 9 votes in February 1974. He must have had some name recognition in Cornwall, particularly among Bodmin voters who remembered him from the 70’s.
    3. The Camelford Water Scandal must also have played a significant part- I don’t know if this had more to do with Tyler’s win than anything else, but whatever the main reason Neale’s vote still dropped by 7.4%, and Tyler’s rose by 5.5%, so something for the Lib Dems clicked here finally to win the seat back which they are still yet to lose to this day.

  23. That’s probably all true. I wonder if Tyler’s absence from the House, from October 1974 until 1992, is a record.

  24. Not even close – the record is William Allen, who lost his Newcastle-under-Lyme seat in 1900, but was re-elected in Burslem in 1931.

  25. Or James Patrick Mahon – briefly MP for County Clare in 1830, where he was elected again in 1879 (inbetween he was MP for Ennis from 1847-1852, so his largest gap in service was 27 years, less than William Allen’s)

  26. thanks Anthony. 🙂

  27. Along with North Devon, this is one of a handful (if that) of English seats that can be described a Lib Dem seat – and their underperfomance here in the 1980s is difficult to undersatand given the rise in popularity of the third party during that time

    So too North Devon – although obviously the Thorpe scandal had an obvious effect

  28. Here is the pattern of the Liberal/Lib Dems’ results in this seat since 1945-
    1. 1945- Thomas Lewis Horabin, 18, 836 (52.9%, +0.7%, 2, 665 (7.5%) majority)
    2. 1950- Dingle Mackintosh Foot, 13, 987 (38.3%, -14.6%)
    3. 1951- Dingle Mackintosh Foot, 12, 869 (34.85%, -3.45%)
    4. 1955- Edwin Thomas Mallindine, 15, 220 (42.86%, +8.01%)
    5. 1959- Edwin Thomas Mallindine, 15, 712 (43.89%, +1.03%)
    6. 1964- Meddon Bruton, 15, 683 (43.81%, -0.08%)
    7. 1966- John Pardoe, 18, 460 (48.50%, +4.69%, 1, 508 (3.96%) majority)
    8. 1970- John Pardoe, 19, 863 (48.64%, +0.14%, 630 (1.54%) majority)
    9. February 1974- John Pardoe, 25, 667 (57.90%, +9.26%, 8, 729 (19.69%) majority)
    10. October 1974- John Pardoe, 21, 368 (51.25%, -6.65%, 3, 856 (9.25%) majority)
    11. 1979- John Pardoe, 20, 742 (43.75%, -7.5%)
    12. 1983- David Chambers, 23, 087 (43.0%, -0.8%)
    13. 1987- Michael Mitchell, 24, 180 (41.9%, -1.1%)
    14. 1992- Paul Tyler, 29, 696 (47.4%, +5.5%, 1, 921 (3.1%) majority)
    15. 1997- Paul Tyler, 31, 100 (53.2%, +5.8%, 13, 847 (23.7%) majority)
    16. 2001- Paul Tyler, 28, 082 (52.0%, -1.2%, 9, 832 (18.2%) majority)
    17. 2005- Dan Rogerson, 23, 842 (42.6%, -9.4%, 3, 076 (5.5%) majority)
    18. 2010- Dan Rogerson, 22, 512 (48.1%, +5.7%, 2, 981 (6.4%) majority)

  29. Of those, Horabin was re-elected as Liberal MP for the constituency in 1945, but then defected to Labour. The successor Liberal candidate, Dingle Foot, was of course Michael Foot’s brother, and he defected to Labour in the 50s, becoming MP for Ipswich in a by-election in 1957. Very oddly, another former Liberal also won a by-election for Labour that year, Megan Lloyd George becoming MP for Carmarthen until her death nine years later. A third brother John Foot however stayed with the Liberals, becoming eventually Lord Foot, whereas a fourth, Hugh Foot, took the Labour whip in the Lords, and the title of Lord Caradon.

  30. Thanks for all that information Barnaby.

    I’ve detected some unusual patterns in the Liberals’ results here in the last 47 years- Pardoe increased his vote share three elections in a row (1965-February 1974) then suffered two considerable decreases in the next two elections- after that the Liberals virtually stood still here in vote share in the 80s, before Paul Tyler took the seat back and got two successive increases of over 5%, before falling back ever so slightly in 2001. Then when he retired in 2005, Rogerson lost a lot of votes because of Tyler’s incumbency factor, before getting the vote back up again in 2010. Following that historical logic, the Lib Dems might still decrease here, but not by as much as other seats they hold. given their traditionally strong support here.

  31. The 2013 local elections were very good for the LDs here, in contrast to the other constituencies in Cornwall:

    LD: 10,778
    Con: 5,064
    Ind: 2,816
    UKIP: 2,707
    Lab: 735
    MK: 521
    Green: 185
    Others: 799

  32. Will the postman deliver for the Tories though? 😀

  33. Is there any (enforceable) law against him dropping a leaflet into every house during his rounds along with the morning post?

  34. I’m not sure I’ve ever heard of a postman standing as a Tory candidate before.

  35. I wonder if a milkman has ever been a candidate for Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems?

  36. Clive Grunshaw, Labour’s candidate for Lancaster & Fleetwood in 2010 and now Police Commissioner for Lancashire is a former milkman, though I think it was some considerable time before he was a candidate.

  37. Christ, that was a HORRIBLE result for Labour. Even for 2010 standards and the fact that this isn’t their battleground.

    No doubt their candidate would be a paper one for next year.

    IMO it could be a LD hold as the Tory vote risks getting split by UKIP.

  38. Labour hardly exist here. We never really have.

  39. “I wonder if a milkman has ever been a candidate for Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems”

    Sydney Tierney MP for Birmingham Yardley Feb 1974-1979 was indeed a former milkman.

  40. My forecast for 2015 here:

    LD 40
    Con 28
    UKIP 20
    Lab 8
    others 4

  41. I still believe the victory here for the Lib Dems in 1992 may have had a lot to do with Paul Tyler himself.

    Having been a prominent figure locally in this area of Cornwall for at least 22 years beforehand, those who had remembered him from when he was MP for Bodmin might have voted for him as a result, which might have helped him gain the seat.

    The declaration for this seat came through during a very quiet period for results, around the same time as Luton South was narrowly held by Graham Bright.

  42. The Tory vote has recovered quite well here between 2001 and 2010, after the huge 14.8% decrease in 1997, some of which went to the Referendum Party, who polled 6.2%.

  43. Ashcroft polling:

    LD 31%
    Con 31%
    UKIP 24%
    Lab 8%

  44. Struggle to see us being level with the Lib Dems here.

    Don’t trust these constituency polls at all. Better to use common sense combined with the national polling.

  45. It’s not that surprising: UKIP probably damage the LDs more than the Tories in a seat like this. Tory supporters tend to be pretty wealthy and so wouldn’t be so keen on UKIP.

  46. This shows that the biggest losers from UKIP could be the Lib Dems, if they poll at a similar level to now in the general election. I still don’t think they will, but I’m less convinced than I was 6 months ago.

  47. As noted before, there are parts of the West Country where the Lib Dem and UKIP votes are potentially quite interchangeable – as hard to understand as that may be for people in other parts of the country (especially London).

  48. On the issues that UKIP most prominently campaign on, they are as far apart from the Lib Dems as Old Labour and Thatcherites were on the public sector and taxation.

    My thinking has therefore been that the swing from LD to UKIP is more of a double-shift: former Lib Dem voters going to one of the two main parties, and voters for the main parties in turn going UKIP.

    The poll above would suggest I’m completely wrong though, if bourne out at the election.

  49. It’s a shame Ashcroft has chosen to poll during the Euros. The swings look credible but I see the CON and LD polling slightly better. The others are polling about 7%, I see this as very unlikely, not least since in many constituencies there won’t be more than 4 candidates.

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