North Cornwall

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21689 (45%)
Labour: 2621 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 15068 (31.2%)
Green: 2063 (4.3%)
UKIP: 6121 (12.7%)
Mebyon Kernow: 631 (1.3%)
Others: 52 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6621 (13.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Former postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor. First elected as MP for Cornwall North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19531 (42%)
Lab: 1971 (4%)
LDem: 22512 (48%)
UKIP: 2300 (5%)
Oth: 530 (1%)
MAJ: 2981 (6%)
2005*
Con: 20766 (37%)
Lab: 6636 (12%)
LDem: 23842 (43%)
UKIP: 3063 (5%)
Oth: 1675 (3%)
MAJ: 3076 (5%)
2001
Con: 18250 (34%)
Lab: 5257 (10%)
LDem: 28082 (52%)
UKIP: 2394 (4%)
MAJ: 9832 (18%)
1997
Con: 17253 (29%)
Lab: 5523 (9%)
LDem: 31186 (53%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 13933 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SCOTT MANN (Conservative) Born Wadebridge. Educated at Wadebridge School. Postman. Cornwall councillor since 2009, former North Cornwall councillor.
JOHN WHITBY (Labour) Retired business owner.
DAN ROGERSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975. Educated at Bodmin College and University of Wales. Liberal Democrat researcher and university admissions officer. Bedford councillor 1999-2002. Contested Bedfordshire North East 2001. MP for North Cornwall 2005 to 2015. Under Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2013.
JULIE LINGARD (UKIP)
AMANDA PENNINGTON (Green) Director of a renewable energy network.
JERRY JEFFRIES (Mebyon Kernow) Cornish language teacher and former serviceman.
JOHN ALLMAN (Restore the Family)
Links
Comments - 146 Responses on “Cornwall North”
  1. @runnymede

    I think it’s quite responsible of the Council to head off any possible complaints of that nature by ensuring the register is as accurate as possible.

  2. Well played Cornwall Council for taking the action they have re voter registration. At least somebody has learned the lessons of the introduction of individual registration in Northern Ireland; that it need not result in voter exclusion if accompanied by a programme of action to locate and register unregistered voters. The relevant Electoral Commission reports are very clear on that.

  3. North Cornwall electorate:

    2010: 68,055
    2011: 68,206
    2012: 66,983
    2013: 67,593
    2014: 63,718

  4. The Lib Dems seem to have made a small amount of progress on the ground here, having just nosed ahead in the Ashcroft poll:

    LD 38
    CON 36
    UKIP 13
    LAB 6
    GRN 6
    OTH 1

    Well, either that or this is variation around MoE, but either way it gives the same picture – a small Lib Dem lead. Hardly sigh of relief territory though!

  5. Perhaps “nervous breath of relief.” I think it’s now clear the LDs are the favorites here – today’s polls have left me sure they won’t be forced out of Cornwall entirely, but they’ll be down to one or two seats there.

  6. I think Scott Mann will defeat Dan Rogerson this time around. Mr Rogerson claims to have achieved much but very little in reality for North Cornwall, Scott Mann being a local postman will I’m sure garner much support as someone who will make a difference to North Cornwall and by supporting him the local population will stop the SNP from breaking up and running the UK under a Milliband coalition goverment.

  7. I think the Green party will do better than expected here, due to the lack of Labour party. I have been contacted by Labour only once so far but have surprisingly seen a lot of activity from the Green party (perhaps that is just in my local area). My prediction would be:

    Rogerson (LIB) – 36
    Mann (CON) – 35
    Lingard (UKIP) – 12
    Pennington (GRN) – 8
    Whitby (LAB) – 6
    Jefferies (MK) – 2
    Allman (Ind) – <1

  8. LD HOLD

    LD – 38
    CON – 37
    LAB – 5
    UKIP – 12
    O – 8

  9. I live in the next door constituency and the word is beginning to be that Rogerson is in trouble.

  10. Like Micheal, the Conservative campaign in North Cornwall has switched from attacking Dan Rogerson to trying to play on the fear factor of a Milliband/SNP coalition. The reason for this is quite simple, they know the respect there is for Dan Rogerson across the political divide & mentioning his name is more likely to increase his support rather than help their own candidate who is clearly out of his depth.

  11. Martin

    This is a common phenomenon and Dan Rogerson is liked at least by those who might naturally vote Labour or Lib Dem though I have not met many Conservatives who think he’s up to much. Perhaps they’re wrong but it’s clear that the general disillusionment with the Lib Dems is hurting him badly. My prediction.

    Cons 38
    Lib Dem 36
    Ukip 14

  12. ASHCROFT

    LD – 38
    CON – 36
    UKIP – 14
    LAB – 5
    GRN – 5
    O – 3

  13. No statistical change since the April Ashcroft poll (makes you wonder why we go to the trouble and expense of having a campaign!).

    Given that Cameron has virtually taken up residence in Cornwall in the last 4 weeks, the Lib Dems can take some comfort from this poll. It shows they remain in the running and may avoid a wipe out west of Yeovil. Having said that a 2% lead remains within the margin of error.

  14. JS Mill

    Given the variance between the Standard VI and Constituency VI polls here, I suspect a lot of Tories like Dan Rogerson!

  15. Or don’t like David Cameron…. leaders’ visits can be a two edged sword…

    I was surprised Jane Dodds had Nick in Montgomeryshire earlier this week seeing how well she was doing by herself.. he is like the kiss of death..

  16. I think the Lib Dems will be comforted that the Tory scaremongering about the SNP does not seem to have had any effect (or if it did, it was countered by something in the other direction…)

    But obviously there are the usual caveats about the untested Ashcroft methodology, quite apart from the fact it is within MoE (two polls with the same numbers must reduce the MoE, but by how much I do not know)

  17. Given the election is less than a week away, there must be a legitimate question about whether people won’t now mostly be answering the first question on these polls with their ‘real’ voting intention. But we will just have to see.

  18. @Runnymede

    But by the same token, why on earth would they answer the second question differently??

    Most constituency polls at this stage simply name the candidates… that would seem the most straightforward thing to do.

    The amazing here is that in all the LAB-CON marginals the biggest swing produced from SVI to CVI is 1.5%, yet in North Cornwall it is a whopping 6% (and similar in most of the other Lib Dem seats that he has polled). It really does seem to be the case that people answer with their heart first time and their head second. The question is how many will go back to their heart in the polling booth – that is the danger for the Lib Dems I would say…

    Andrew

  19. ‘It really does seem to be the case that people answer with their heart first time and their head second’

    well we don’t know that, do we?

    It’s quite possible some people are confused by Q2. We just don’t know – this is an untried approach.

  20. Yes, but why are they not confused in LAB-CON marginals in that case?

    There is no systematic uptick in Lib Dem vote in those seats from SVI to CVI (it does go up 4% in Peterborough, but most of the others are down).

    In North Cornwall there must be an awful lot of people who would vote Tory in most other constituencies but Lib Dem there (otherwise the Lib Dem vote could never be so high compared to the National vote). Maybe the Ashcroft approach really does capture that?

    Looking back at the N Cornwall Ashcroft poll in Sept, the Tories are almost identical on SVI but the Lib Dems are up 9%, while the shift from SVI to CVI has lessened from 12 to 8%… So there is an effect of the approaching election, but maybe a lot of people still have not finally decided

    heart and head is an interpretation of the data of course!

    I think the post-mortem on these Ashcroft polls will keep UKPR busy over the summer!

    Andrew

  21. If UKIP were supposedly doing the most damage to the LibDems in the southwest then it is only natural that the bloom going off the UKIP rose should benefit the LibDems..

  22. Seems a lot of respect for the Lib Dem, Don Rogerson, it appears he will be just in front. Conservative candidate not really up to the level needed if u r going to be an MP

  23. @runnymede

    It’s untried in *public* polling. Ashcroft was doing this privately for the Tories in both 2005 and 2010.

  24. I’ve always thought that this was a likely LD hold. The Labour vote has never exceeded 16% in history, so there’s very limited scope for the Labour vote to rebound at the expense of the LDs here.

  25. Martin, if you are truly local then at least get Dan’s name right. I live here. I can tell you Scott Mann is converting people who have not been interested in politics before including young people. Many in my village think Dan is nice but not really very forceful or effective and they want a change. I think Dan is OK but it seems his time may be up.

  26. Lib Dem Hold. 1,000 maj.

  27. By my estimation, this is the first election since that of 1955 that the Liberal Democrat/Liberal party has failed to win a single seat in the south west.

  28. of course they (sort-of) bounced straight back in 1959 by taking North Devon.

    Can they do the same next time? Looking at the sheer scale of some of the Tory majorities I’m not so sure that they can tbh. A five-point swing would deliver just five seats some of which aren’t exactly “natural” Lib Dem territory

  29. “By my estimation, this is the first election since that of 1955 that the Liberal Democrat/Liberal party has failed to win a single seat in the south west.”

    Not sure that’s quite right. a number of seats in 1955 were won by what were technically “National Liberal”, old liberals who had sided with the national government post 1931. It was only in the 1960s that they formally merged with the tories…

    a number of the seats in the west country, eg. st. ives, torrington would have been held by MPs who were technically “national liberals” even though they were generally conservative…

    the whig/liberal/nonconformist political traditions were prominent in the west country from the 17th century. the 2015 election was a historic change from that point of view.

  30. The National Liberals were affiliated to the Tories though (I see them – though I admit it may be inaccurate- as akin to the Labour & Co-operative Party)

    There were no Liberal members in the South West in 1955.

  31. It’s a little late in the day to mention it, but Sir Gerry Neale, MP 1979-92, died in October last year.

  32. Who is feeling queasy while trying to down his cornflakes this morning?

    Wadebridge West (Cornwall) vote result:

    LDEM: 604
    CON: 356
    LAB: 222
    IND: 111
    GRN: 95

    LDEM: 43.5% (+19.2)
    CON: 25.6% (-39.9)
    LAB: 16.0% (+5.8)
    IND: 8.0% (+8.0)
    GRN: 6.8% (+6.8)

  33. Big question is can the LDs convert what has been, by any measure, a spectacular local by-election run – on this form they’d be posing a major challenge across the Tory heartlands – into the local elections on 5th May? My guess is probably not, as the by-election success is probably to some extent artificial as the LDs are probably putting resources into them that others aren’t. But even so they should feel confident about at least holding seats, if not making gains, in three weeks time.

  34. Our results have been good in seats where we have challenged at parliamentary level, have we not taken every council seat which belonged to Conservative councillors who are now MP’s in former LD seats?

    However, areas where we don’t and haven’t ever challenged continue to see poor results, and a number of areas where we have has decent levels of support in the past, Richmond (Yorks) and Epsom, we have lost seats.

    I think the results for us will be roughly static, this election is all about stopping the rot (not going to happen in Wales).

  35. Jack Sheldon,

    It is fair to say that the Lib Dems have momentum. Whether or not it is stupendous remains to be seen.

  36. I would agree with James on the rot in some areas.. the Richmond Yorkshire results (and not standing) is pretty poor. Some results in Yeovil have been nothing short of disastrous for the LibDems.

    It also helps in the Southwest that UKIP seems to be seen (once again) as mainly a national issue party and is seeing slumping results on a broad front.

  37. @James

    Yes, mainly in ex-held seats but there have also been LD gains in Broadland, Stratford-on-Avon and Cambridgeshire since the turn of the year, and other cases where the LD vote has increased significantly. Interestingly, this good run in the CON seats hasn’t been replicated in LAB seats – so no sign of left-wing voters forgiving them for the coalition yet.

    @Andy54

    Haha. That sums it up nicely!

  38. May will be interesting (For LibDems) as:

    – it will show there really is a #LibDemFightback, beyond council bye elections. Some of my fellow party members seem to forget that sometimes. It’s going to be very demoralising for them if we continue to slide in elections that really matter.

    – If we do well and continue to poll as we do(6-8%), does this not show that while we have a local appeal people are not connecting with our national appeal. Our focus on the refugee crisis I think is principled and admirable, but it just doesn’t resonate with the public and only consolidates our core support. Our recovery needs to go beyond local level and we need to start championing some clear and unique policies to give us an identity- that’s why I particularly like our campaign to legalise cannabis, .

  39. @James

    “If we do well and continue to poll as we do(6-8%), does this not show that while we have a local appeal people are not connecting with our national appeal. Our focus on the refugee crisis I think is principled and admirable, but it just doesn’t resonate with the public and only consolidates our core support. Our recovery needs to go beyond local level and we need to start championing some clear and unique policies to give us an identity”

    I fully agree with that. And whilst I personally don’t support the legalisation of canabbis, I can completely understand why the Lib Dems (who I suspect have mostly supported this in private, if not in public, for many years) would go for that policy now. It is one thing on which they can outflank other parties on and which might have some popular resonance.

  40. Another Tory MP thrown under the Battle Bus..

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/139419/scott-mann-north-cornwall/

  41. I sincerely hope dimwitted and right-wing incumbant Scott Mann got the boot although if anything today’s announcement makes that less likely as I’m sure he will be on that list the police are about to hand over to prosecutors

  42. In the dim and distant days when we only had to worry about the County Elections in May, there seemed to be a few “straws in the wind ” pieces suggesting the Lib Dems had their eyes on taking control of Cornwall council following a run of promising local by-elections in the county.

    There will be no easy read across from local to national trends in this neck of the woods, given this area is one of the last bastion of independent candidates. If however the Lib Dems do score well on May 4th, this might be a long shot target for them, the leave vote not withstanding. Their tradition here is deep and enduring : they have after all held it for 42 years since 1945.

  43. I just don’t see where the extra LD votes are coming from in this kind of seat whilst the Cons are flying so high nationally. I think LDs who have been buoyed by local by-election successes based on strong GOTV operations in the context of very low turnouts might be in for some disappointment on June 8.

  44. I was amused to hear a former LD MP was on secondment abroad when the snap GE was called.

    No doubt a LD on here will let us know which one it was but I hear it was a West Country former Member.

  45. I think the LDs should hope to get a strong second here and retake it in future when the Tories aren’t quite as strong. I can’t see them winning it unless Cornwall just completely goes off the deep end politically.

  46. Is there any sign that the Brexit vote has loosened traditional party allegiances in the West Country. It is being widely reported that long standing, traditional Labour voters who opted for Brexit have found it easier to vote Tory as a result. It has always puzzled me that places like Corneall should have such a strong Liberal tradition yet, as the Brexit vote showed, be deeply Eurosceptic. There is no evidence that Tory Remainers are deserting their party. What about Liberal Brexiteers?

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