Copeland

2015 Result:
Conservative: 14186 (35.8%)
Labour: 16750 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 1368 (3.5%)
Green: 1179 (3%)
UKIP: 6148 (15.5%)
MAJORITY: 2564 (6.5%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: North West, Cumbria. The whole of the Copeland council area and part of the Allerdale council area.

Main population centres: Whitehaven, Keswick, Cleator Moor, Egremont, Millom.

Profile: A seat on the remote west coast of Cumbria. The constituency is a mixture of hill farming countryside, impressive Lake District wilderness, including Scafell Pike itself, and somewhat economically depressed former mining or iron working towns. The main town is Whitehaven, historically a coal mining town and commercial port, mining ceased in the 1980s. The Marchon chemical factory also closed in 2005 leaving the nearby Sellafield nuclear power complex as the most important source of local employment. Keswick, to the north of the constituency, was the first place to produce graphite pencils and was for many years the base of Derwent, the manufacturers of fine art pencils. They are now based just outside the constituency in Lillyhall.

Politics: Copeland and its predecessor seat Whitehaven have been represented by the Labour party since 1935, although not always with comfortable majorities.


Current MP
JAMIE REED (Labour) Born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former Sellafield press officer. Former Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty 2006-2008, PPS to Harriet Harman 2008-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15866 (37%)
Lab: 19699 (46%)
LDem: 4365 (10%)
BNP: 1474 (3%)
Oth: 1383 (3%)
MAJ: 3833 (9%)
2005*
Con: 10713 (32%)
Lab: 17033 (50%)
LDem: 3880 (11%)
UKIP: 735 (2%)
Oth: 1396 (4%)
MAJ: 6320 (19%)
2001
Con: 13027 (37%)
Lab: 17991 (52%)
LDem: 3732 (11%)
MAJ: 4964 (14%)
1997
Con: 12081 (29%)
Lab: 24025 (58%)
LDem: 3814 (9%)
Oth: 389 (1%)
MAJ: 11944 (29%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEPHEN HARALDSEN (Conservative)
JAMIE REED (Labour) See above.
DANNY GALLAGHER (Liberal Democrat) Former Preston councillor. Contested Wyre and Preston North 2010.
MICHAEL PYE (UKIP)
ALLAN TODD (Green)
Links
Comments - 2,165 Responses on “Copeland”
  1. I was generalising by terming it “part of Kilsyth” but I’m sure you get my drift.

  2. Swing works well in a two party system but in the 3-5 party system we seem to have the calculated swing can in theory be based on the rise and fall of both parties. The churn of the vote accurately projects where the votes rise and fall.

    Copeland is the highest by elections turnout in a Labour seat since Crewe and Nantwich in 2007. Turnouts are dismal all round in comparison with days gone by

  3. Thanks NTY, a very thorough and informative assessment of things

  4. Brilliant, NTY.

    Thank you. I wish my Geography of Scotland was better, especially Central belt.

  5. “I’m not convinced that ANGUS and BANFF & BUCHAN are winnable in a GE just now.”

    I am – but no more. Thinking they are ‘winnable’ is not the same as predicting a win.

  6. Gillian Troughton has been confirmed as the Labour candidate for the Genreal Election.

  7. Wouldn’t it count as a gain?

  8. Maxim, if Trudy Harrison retains the seat next month, then, by convention, it will be reported as “Con gain” not “Con hold”.

  9. Gill Troughton who lost the Copeland By-election for Labour has now lost her County Council seat as well.

  10. Con gain here I predict, with increased majority (now that really is a paradox!)

  11. There’re rumours that Labour could win back Copeland!!

  12. No question of that if the exit poll is right. However, conflicting early results make me VERY cautious!

  13. It would be a surprise so soon after the byelection

  14. Tories have won/held/gained here

  15. Has any candidate lost three electoral contests in such quick succession? Just 105 days separate Gillian Troughton’s two defeats in Copeland, with a council election thrown in for good measure.

    Even Zac Goldsmith got lucky the third time…

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