Copeland

2015 Result:
Conservative: 14186 (35.8%)
Labour: 16750 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 1368 (3.5%)
Green: 1179 (3%)
UKIP: 6148 (15.5%)
MAJORITY: 2564 (6.5%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: North West, Cumbria. The whole of the Copeland council area and part of the Allerdale council area.

Main population centres: Whitehaven, Keswick, Cleator Moor, Egremont, Millom.

Profile: A seat on the remote west coast of Cumbria. The constituency is a mixture of hill farming countryside, impressive Lake District wilderness, including Scafell Pike itself, and somewhat economically depressed former mining or iron working towns. The main town is Whitehaven, historically a coal mining town and commercial port, mining ceased in the 1980s. The Marchon chemical factory also closed in 2005 leaving the nearby Sellafield nuclear power complex as the most important source of local employment. Keswick, to the north of the constituency, was the first place to produce graphite pencils and was for many years the base of Derwent, the manufacturers of fine art pencils. They are now based just outside the constituency in Lillyhall.

Politics: Copeland and its predecessor seat Whitehaven have been represented by the Labour party since 1935, although not always with comfortable majorities.


Current MP
JAMIE REED (Labour) Born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former Sellafield press officer. Former Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty 2006-2008, PPS to Harriet Harman 2008-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15866 (37%)
Lab: 19699 (46%)
LDem: 4365 (10%)
BNP: 1474 (3%)
Oth: 1383 (3%)
MAJ: 3833 (9%)
2005*
Con: 10713 (32%)
Lab: 17033 (50%)
LDem: 3880 (11%)
UKIP: 735 (2%)
Oth: 1396 (4%)
MAJ: 6320 (19%)
2001
Con: 13027 (37%)
Lab: 17991 (52%)
LDem: 3732 (11%)
MAJ: 4964 (14%)
1997
Con: 12081 (29%)
Lab: 24025 (58%)
LDem: 3814 (9%)
Oth: 389 (1%)
MAJ: 11944 (29%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEPHEN HARALDSEN (Conservative)
JAMIE REED (Labour) See above.
DANNY GALLAGHER (Liberal Democrat) Former Preston councillor. Contested Wyre and Preston North 2010.
MICHAEL PYE (UKIP)
ALLAN TODD (Green)
Links
Comments - 2,165 Responses on “Copeland”
  1. “Sturgeon is a horrific first minister (in my view) and is a one trick pony with a serious issue with English people. Eventually the Scots will get sick of her and want a FM who wants to govern the country in the interests of the people.”

    The SNP party have been in control of Holyrood since 2007 and currently sit around the 47% mark in the opinion polls.

  2. Of course the SNP aren’t going to lose their stranglehold any time soon, but the collapse of Scottish Labour does put some votes on the table. If Tories and/or Lib Dems can pick these up they stand a chance of making a few gains, but let’s not kid ourselves – the SNP will be holding at least 80% of Scotland’s Westminster seats for the foreseeable future. It’s all about the other parties trying to amass tactical votes to topple the SNP in specific seats.

    Realistically, on current boundaries that means the Tories going after Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, Dumfries & Galloway, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, while the Lib Dems target East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife. That should make the SNP’s next campaign pretty interesting actually – will they tone down their socialist rhetoric in order to hang on to these generally parochial seats?

  3. On the Scottish LibDem front…

    The problem they have, apart from their one remaining disgraced MP is that Scottish Conservatives do not vote tactically. They are very loyal to their party and are likely to be even more so now with Ruth’s army on the march.

    On the Scottish Conservative front….

    Make no mistake, they are a real threat in not only the seats mentioned by polltroll but also in areas like East Renfrewshire.

  4. And yet the Lib Dems picked up Edinburgh W and NE Fife at the last Holyrood elections. In Ed W, the SNP’s vote share actually went up but they lost the seat as Labour and Tory voters rallied behind the Lib Dems.

    The task they are faced with is one that their “winning here” electoral strategy is ideally suited to. They could remain at 4% in Scotland and still gain two or three seats in 2020.

  5. If the Quebecois Independents are anything to go by we won’t see much change for at least three decades

  6. I don’t live in Scotland but polling does look like the Tories will win a couple of Scottish seats. Nicola Sturgeon seems very popular in Scotland and more appealing than Alex Salmond. East Fife looks good for the lib dems but that’s it.

  7. NE Fife was a personal vote for the likeable leader of the Scottish LibDems Willie Rennie. This is Menzies Campbell country and the LibDems do well with known candidates where they historically have been successful.
    Those “weel kent faces” like Menzies, Charles Kennedy and Malcolm Bruce seem far away.
    Edinburgh West was a surprise to me with Labour throwing all their unionist vote behind the LibDem candidate to defeat the SNP.

  8. Where’s NTY when you need him?

    His accurate, logical and fact-based posts on Scotland always help when there’s a tendency to sweeping statements / posts based on ‘feelings’ and over-reliance on the accuracy of ‘my’ understanding or recollections.

  9. There is no one quite comparable to our dear NYT UK

  10. “Where’s NTY when you need him?”

    He probably clicks on, sees Plopwellian Tory has posted umpteen times on each recent thread and clicks off again in despair

  11. Yes, I have to endorse Paul D’s thoughts – it seems that PT simply ignores the plaintive pleas of the rest of the site members and continues to do lots of little (and generally meaningless) posts.

    It is a shame – I’m sure he’s a nice enough guy, but it is spoiling the site a little at the moment. There’s no point in saying “if that/if this”……

    Read the feedback PT…..and in a polite way just keep your comments to those that add something.

  12. Re Scotland on current polling you have to think the Conservatives would not only win Dumfries & Galloway, Berwickshire and West Aberdeenshire but win them comfortably. With a Tory vote share in a high 20s the real battles could be in place like East Renfrewshire, Perth & North Perthsire, Moray, Aberdeen South, Stirling and Edinburgh South West.

    But of course there are boundary changes and it is far, far too early to say if their polling will remain at the level it currently is.

    On current boundaries the LDs would be short odds to win back NE Fife, Edinburgh West and East Dumbartonshire.

  13. Jack,

    I am not sure why you feel the LibDems would be short odds to win back East Dumbartonshire?

  14. Jack

    Yes, agree. Though apparently there’s reason to believe Libs result in E Dunbartonshire in 2015 was a bit of an aberration the way their votes increased, and may not be won back. Jo S must have got huge no’s of tactical votes last time, I think there might be one or two other outside chances for them too, though.

    I can also see Angus in play for tories in these circumstances.

  15. @Scottyboy

    Labour’s Scottish polling has continued to decline further and further since 2015. So every reason to believe the LDs could pick up enough votes from Lab to get them over the line if the SNP stayed still.

    This is an area where boundaries could scupper the LDs, though. I can’t remember what the proposal is off the top of my head.

  16. ‘Turnout was 51.33% which is pretty fantastic for a by-election’

    Hardly – when compared with the 82% turnout at Darlington in March 1983 or the Greenwich byelection of February 1987 which saw a turnout of 68%.

  17. ‘In my opinion the 6.7% swing to the government in Copeland indicates that Labour are doing even worse than national polling suggests because governments typically do better in general elections than by-elections.’

    But on the other hand, the swing in Stoke was much lower at 1.8% . An average of the two results gives a swing of 4.35% which is the equivalent of a 15% poll lead.

  18. ‘”Swings in by-elections are almost always much greater than in General Elections (otherwise there would have been Lib Dem landslides in most General Elections since 1960!).”’

    Not always true. The Tory gain at Brighouse & Spenborough was reversed in 1964. The Tories won the Ilford North By election in March 1978 and saw a further swing in their favour there in 1979. Labour increased its majority at Berwick & East Lothian in October 1978 – but their majority fell back in 1979.

  19. I hate to pour cold water on the optimism of some of the posters here, but this swing does not automatically imply a massive Conservative majority at the next election.

    The swing was clearly influenced by the nuclear issue, which is particular to this area. The Conservative party were able to put in a decent campaign; there is no evidence that a ground game of the intensity could be replicated across dozens of target seats, whilst also trying to ensure existing marginal.

    The Lib Dems have been doing well in recent council by-elections. The greatest threat to the Conservative majority is a wide-spread belief that Labour cannot win, thereby eliminating the squeeze so successfully applied to Lib Dem seats in 2015, based on the premise that Labour would rule with the SNP, unless the Conservatives won.

    The Conservatives can only afford to lose 6 seats to lose their majority, Labour need to win nearly 100 to take power alone.

    Boundary changes will help the Conservatives and being cautious Theresa May will surely wait to be certain of benefiting from them.

  20. The swing in Stoke was to the Lib Dems not the Tories so you can’t just average it with Copeland… The biggest swing in Copeland was UKIP to Tory…

    It would be more meaningful to average the fall in Labour vote share but it is pretty clear the Labour vote in Stoke was held up by fear of UKIP..

  21. Scotty boy,
    The fact that the Lib Dems won both Orkney and Shetland in the Holyrood election rather suggests the voters are less concerned about the antics of Carmichael than you are..

    I think the lib Dems are clearly still the main challenger to the SNP in Edinburgh W and NE Fife and some of the Highland seats, but have been replaced by the Tories in the Borders and most of NE Scotland. Not sure they will do very well in E Dumbarton unless Jo Swinson comes back…

  22. ‘The swing in Stoke was to the Lib Dems not the Tories so you can’t just average it with Copeland’

    Swing is calculated on the basis of one party’s vote change relative to another. If Party A loses 10% to Party C with Party B also losing 6% to Party C there will still have been a 2% swing from Party A to Party B. This was well illustrated by what happened in the 1964 election when the Liberals contested 365 seats compared with circa 200 in 1959. In many seats both the Tory and the Labour vote dropped, but because the latter fell by less than the former there was a net swing from Tory to Labour resulting in significant Labour gains.
    On the same basis, it is entirely reasonable to average the swing in the two seats.

  23. ‘Ilford North? That was an opposition gain in a by-election, not comparable to Copeland in the slightest.’

    You appear to miss the point – namely that the Tories performed better at the subsequent 1979 general election there than at the March 1978 by election. Thus, the Opposition improved its position further . On that basis, Labour could perform better at Copeland and Stoke in 2020 than at either of the by – elections – particularly given the time period involved.

  24. ”You appear to miss the point – namely that the Tories performed better at the subsequent 1979 general election there than at the March 1978 by election. Thus, the Opposition improved its position further . On that basis, Labour could perform better at Copeland and Stoke in 2020 than at either of the by – elections – particularly given the time period involved.”

    @Graham If the polling is substantially better for Labour at that time then yes. If it is the same at is now they would almost certainly do worse in a general election than they did in the by-election. If Thursday 23rd February had been the date of a general election Labour would have lost Copeland by even more than it did in one of its worst meltdowns in history.

  25. To clarify, the reason I doubted why folks were suggesting that East Dunbartonshire is that the constituency will be disappearing in it’s present form. Part of Bearsden (good LibDem country) will drop out and part of Kilsyth (good SNP) will come in. However, good LibDem candidates have proved often in the past that they can buck the trend.

  26. Thank you Matt and Bt Says 🙂 Yep you’re absolutely right Paul D, his incessant nature really puts me off of this site at times, hopefully it’s just me and not the same for other contributors.

    As for where constitutes a viable target for the Conservative Party in Scotland I suppose it really depends what boundaries we’re talking about: the existing Westminster boundaries (which are due to be replaced before 2020) or the upcoming boundaries (which are being developed at the moment and due to be used at the 2020 UK general election).

    I believe that the best points of reference in determining which constituencies are the most likely to vote Conservative in 2020 are the Scottish independence referendum results (as the strength of the SNP in any given area typically correlates with the Yes vote from 2014), the 2016 Holyrood election results (as current opinion polling in Scotland is similar to the results of that election) and to a lesser extent the European Union membership referendum results: the extent to which that plays a role in determining how well the Conservatives do in Scotland remains to be seen.

    On the current Westminster boundaries my own notional figures (see: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9192/scottish-independence-referendum-2014-results ) would suggest that the following constituencies voted against independence on a margin of 60.0% No – 40.0% Yes or above back in 2014:
    * Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – 68% No
    * West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – 67% No
    * Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – 66% No
    * Edinburgh West – 66% No
    * Aberdeen South – 65% No
    * East Dunbartonshire – 65% No
    * Edinburgh South – 65% No
    * Orkney and Shetland – 65% No
    * North East Fife – 64% No
    * Dumfries and Galloway – 63% No
    * East Renfrewshire – 63% No
    * East Lothian – 62% No
    * Edinburgh South West – 62% No
    * Gordon – 62% No
    * Edinburgh North and Leith – 60% No
    * Ochil and South Perthshire – 60% No

    Based on the 2016 Holyrood election you would probably expect the Conservatives to be the central unionist party in most of these constituencies with the Liberal Democrats being competitive in East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West and North East Fife, Labour potentially coming ahead of the Conservatives in East Lothian, Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.

    In constituencies where the unionist vote held up well in 2015 and 2016 and where the Remain vote was particularly strong at the EU referendum I would expect the SNP to hold up better (mostly around Edinburgh and Greater Glasgow), falling back harder in constituencies which had stronger Leave votes (around the rest of Scotland: particularly the north-east and south of the country).

    The latest Westminster opinion poll in Scotland has the SNP on 47% of the vote (unchanged on the constituency vote from 2016) and the Conservatives on 27% of the vote (up 5% on the constituency vote from 2016). These figures would almost certainly result in the Conservatives holding onto the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale constituency and gaining the Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk constituency from the SNP on a good margin. Politically speaking the West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine constituency is broadly identical to the Aberdeenshire West constituency in the Scottish Parliament which is currently represented by Conservative MSP Alexander Burnett: so they would clearly be ahead here too. Dumfries and Galloway seems to have also voted Conservative in 2016, so they would be looking at gaining that constituency at Westminster with an increased majority on the Holyrood election.

    The next most likely Conservative target in Scotland would probably be the East Renfrewshire constituency: a very affluent suburban seat in the south-west of the Glasgow urban area. This constituency had a significant Remain vote at the 2016 EU referendum (74.3% Remain) and has had a much poorer swing to the SNP in recent elections in comparison to other parts of the country: with this in mind the SNP vote should probably hold on here more than elsewhere in Scotland. All things considered it would probably be a very tight marginal between the Conservatives and SNP on the figures given. Other potential targets for the party could include Aberdeen South (which has considerably better boundaries for the Conservatives in comparison to the equivalent Holyrood seat of Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, which might in practice be a stronger target for the party in comparison with East Renfrewshire) and Edinburgh South West (which is broadly similar to the Edinburgh Pentlands constituency at Holyrood, where the SNP had a majority of 7.4%). Outside of that the Conservatives were ahead on the regional list vote in the Edinburgh Southern constituency (which is a more affluent version of the existing Edinburgh South constituency): although a strong pro-Labour tactical vote in that area would make gaining the Edinburgh South constituency very challenging. Moray also had a 50% Leave vote at the EU referendum and a 58% No vote in 2014, so it could be an important target constituency for the party, although the more favourable Moray boundaries in the Scottish Parliament returned a solid 47% SNP vote in 2016, so I wouldn’t get my hopes up there. Perth & North Perthshire is effectively the same as the Perthshire North constituency in the Scottish Parliament which had a 48.6% SNP vote in 2016: it is believed to have went 60% Remain and 57% No. Angus is basically out of the question for the time being as it had a 55% No vote (which would put the SNP at over 50% of the vote there in 2016).

    As for the Liberal Democrats: Edinburgh West is very similar to the existing Edinburgh Western constituency in the Scottish Parliament, which had a 7% Lib Dem majority in 2016. North East Fife is less favourable for the party in comparison to the Holyrood seat in that area (as it covers part of the more working class town of Leven), although it would still represent a very promising target for the Liberal Democrats looking ahead towards 2020. The same applies for East Dunbartonshire. I believe that all three constituencies are winnable for the party, alongside their solitary constituency in Orkney & Shetland.

    Labour’s main targets would be East Lothian and Edinburgh South.

    The new boundaries are currently being developed at the moment, although we have a rough idea on how they should pan out based on the allocated review area designations and the interim proposals which the boundary commission have already published.

    Some Conservative targets which are guaranteed to be created from the review include:
    * Aberdeen South: covering southern parts of the Aberdeen City council area
    * Clydesdale and Eskdale: covering eastern parts of the Dumfries and Galloway council area and southern parts of the South Lanarkshire council area
    * Dumfries and Galloway: covering western parts of the Dumfries and Galloway council area
    * Gordon and Deeside: covering central and south-western parts of the Aberdeenshire council area
    * Kincardine and North Angus: covering south-eastern parts of the Aberdeenshire council area and northern parts of the Angus council area
    * Scottish Borders: covering a majority of the Scottish Borders council area

    Other likely Conservative targets from the review (which might not exist at the discretion of the Boundary Commission) include:
    * Eastwood and Loudoun: covering eastern parts of the East Renfrewshire council area and north-eastern parts of the East Ayrshire council area
    * Edinburgh South (or South West): covering southern parts the City of Edinburgh council area
    * South Ayrshire: covering a majority of the South Ayrshire council area
    * South Tayside: covering southern parts of the Perth and Kinross council area and north-eastern parts of the Fife council area

    I have covered the interim proposals from the boundary commission at length elsewhere on this site (if you’re interested check out what I’ve said on page 5 of “Aberdeen South” and page 11 of “Edinburgh South”). Basically I suggest that there are seven major Conservative targets from the interim proposals, in order (based on the 2016 Holyrood election results):
    – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – Edinburgh South, West and Central
    – Clydesdale and Eskdale
    – Ayr and Carrick
    – Eastwood and Loudoun
    – Gordon and Deeside

    There are a further two outside targets in Kincardine & Angus East and Aberdeen South. Please check out page 11 of Edinburgh South page for my independence referendum and Holyrood election notionals for all of those constituencies.

    At a push there’s also Dundee East & Angus Glens, Perthshire and Moray & Nairn: which all voted 57% No back in 2014. I doubt that the Conservatives would be able to effectively challenge the SNP in these seats without the SNP falling back to 45% nationally.

    As for the Liberal Democrats the proposed Edinburgh West constituency is very good for the party: a vast improvement on the Edinburgh Western constituency in the Scottish Parliament and on the existing Westminster boundaries which would make them favourites there in my opinion (even in an election similar in style to 2015 with the SNP repeating their landslide result). North East Fife and Kirkintilloch & Bearsden South are both much worse for the party than their predecessor seats as North East Fife gains the working class towns of Buckhaven and Methil, which was the best Yes area in Fife back in 2014. East Dunbartonshire loses parts of the very affluent and unionist suburb of Bearsden, gaining some staunch SNP areas in northern and eastern Kirkintilloch.

    For Labour the primary targets would be Edinburgh South West & Central and East Lothian.

  27. An important reminder: the SNP are currently polling at around/in excess of the results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election results: realistically I would expect their vote to be broadly similar to the results of the 2016 Holyrood election results across most of the country, increased around Greater Glasgow and Edinburgh – this makes many constituencies in the north-east of the country (places like Angus, North Perthshire and Moray) out of the question as potential gains for the Conservative party as the SNP vote was very strong in those areas back in 2016.

    As I’ve mentioned there are nine realistic targets for the Conservatives based on the interim boundary proposals under these circumstances. On the latest polling figures of 47% SNP 27% Conservative the Conservatives would be looking to take their seven primary targets of:

    – Ayr and Carrick
    – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    – Clydesdale and Eskdale
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – Eastwood and Loudoun
    – Edinburgh South West and Central
    – Gordon and Deeside (covering a majority of Alex Salmond’s current constituency)

    If the Conservatives can build up their vote a bit more then they would also be competitive in Aberdeen South and Kincardine & Angus East.

    On the current boundaries I would suggest that they would win the following constituencies on the given polling figures:

    – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    – Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Selkirk
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    And possibly also Aberdeen South and East Renfrewshire, becoming more competitive in Edinburgh South West with an increased vote share.

  28. @ Jack Sheldon:
    “Re Scotland on current polling you have to think the Conservatives would not only win Dumfries & Galloway, Berwickshire and West Aberdeenshire but win them comfortably. With a Tory vote share in a high 20s the real battles could be in place like East Renfrewshire, Perth & North Perthsire, Moray, Aberdeen South, Stirling and Edinburgh South West.
    But of course there are boundary changes and it is far, far too early to say if their polling will remain at the level it currently is.
    On current boundaries the LDs would be short odds to win back NE Fife, Edinburgh West and East Dumbartonshire.”

    Very good assessment here: I completely agree omitting Perth & North Perthshire as a potential Conservative gain at the moment.

    @Andrew111:
    “I think the lib Dems are clearly still the main challenger to the SNP in Edinburgh W and NE Fife and some of the Highland seats, but have been replaced by the Tories in the Borders and most of NE Scotland. Not sure they will do very well in E Dumbarton unless Jo Swinson comes back…”

    In East Dunbartonshire looks can be deceiving: the boundaries at Holyrood are very different from the boundaries at Westminster as the Holyrood seat excludes much of Bearsden and Milngavie: affluent, suburban, very unionist areas. It covers the more deprived northern and eastern parts of Kirkintilloch as well, areas which are covered by the Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East constituency at the British Parliament and are significantly better for the SNP. This did the Lib Dems no favours in 2016. Considering the role tactical voting has played in other constituencies which are similar in nature to East Dunbartonshire (Aberdeen Central, Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Western and Eastwood) I would say that their vote should hold up here if the boundary changes don’t go through.

    @Scottyboy:
    “To clarify, the reason I doubted why folks were suggesting that East Dunbartonshire is that the constituency will be disappearing in it’s present form. Part of Bearsden (good LibDem country) will drop out and part of Kilsyth (good SNP) will come in. However, good LibDem candidates have proved often in the past that they can buck the trend.”

    Actually East Dunbartonshire is to gain the remaining parts of Kirkintilloch, which is currently covered by the Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East constituency. The allocated boundary review areas means that this is inevitable assuming that the boundary changes pass. Also Kirkintilloch is located inside of the East Dunbartonshire council area whereas Kilsyth is located in North Lanarkshire. As part of the boundary review Kilsyth is to join parts of Cumbernauld and northern Monklands in North Lanarkshire: solid SNP areas.

  29. I was generalising by terming it “part of Kilsyth” but I’m sure you get my drift.

  30. Swing works well in a two party system but in the 3-5 party system we seem to have the calculated swing can in theory be based on the rise and fall of both parties. The churn of the vote accurately projects where the votes rise and fall.

    Copeland is the highest by elections turnout in a Labour seat since Crewe and Nantwich in 2007. Turnouts are dismal all round in comparison with days gone by

  31. Thanks NTY, a very thorough and informative assessment of things

  32. Brilliant, NTY.

    Thank you. I wish my Geography of Scotland was better, especially Central belt.

  33. “I’m not convinced that ANGUS and BANFF & BUCHAN are winnable in a GE just now.”

    I am – but no more. Thinking they are ‘winnable’ is not the same as predicting a win.

  34. Gillian Troughton has been confirmed as the Labour candidate for the Genreal Election.

  35. Wouldn’t it count as a gain?

  36. Maxim, if Trudy Harrison retains the seat next month, then, by convention, it will be reported as “Con gain” not “Con hold”.

  37. Gill Troughton who lost the Copeland By-election for Labour has now lost her County Council seat as well.

  38. Con gain here I predict, with increased majority (now that really is a paradox!)

  39. There’re rumours that Labour could win back Copeland!!

  40. No question of that if the exit poll is right. However, conflicting early results make me VERY cautious!

  41. It would be a surprise so soon after the byelection

  42. Tories have won/held/gained here

  43. Has any candidate lost three electoral contests in such quick succession? Just 105 days separate Gillian Troughton’s two defeats in Copeland, with a council election thrown in for good measure.

    Even Zac Goldsmith got lucky the third time…

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