Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 616 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. The You Gov has The City of London & Westminster South on a knife edge.

  2. The You Gov model has The City of London & Westminster South on a knife edge.

  3. “The You Gov model has The City of London & Westminster South on a knife edge.”

    It’s silly.

    I voted in that seat in 1997. The polling station (just off Edgware Road) was dominated by blue rinse ladies in their pearls and brooches. Even if BT’s view that affluent women are surging to Corbyn, it’s unlikely to be that kind of affluent women. A large part of the younger and more transient population isn’t allowed to vote. These predictions show the limitations of trying to predict individual seats by lumping demographics together.

  4. Surrey – your numbers give a majority of 86 not 42

  5. “The two people who have done more than anyone else to secure a Conservative majority are Ruth Davidson and Paul Nuttall.”

    You can add Tim Farron to that list, though you could argue that his uselessness has benefited Labour as well as the Conservatives.

  6. @Alex F, I’ve now worked out the specific numbers for the Tories and Labour (sorry!) rather than just the blunt approximation I made before: Tories on 368, Labour 208 which is a majority of 87 or something like.

  7. Apologies, also got my majority completely wrong above. It is actually 118- not 133.

  8. More Predictions: from the experts this time:
    @MattSingh_ 98
    @TSEofPB 106
    @paulmotty 82
    @IainDale 122
    @Election4castUK ([email protected]) 82
    Nigel Marriott 102
    @LordAshcroft (2017 MRP) 78
    @ElectoralCalculus (Martin Baxter) 72
    @RoadTo326 122
    @electiondata 124
    @DPJHodges 110
    @Andrew_Lilico 158
    @KeiranPedley 60 (midpt)
    @JantaLipinsky 80
    @MSmithsonPB 56 (midpt)
    @colinrtalbot 74
    @StephenDFisher (combined) 66
    Fisher (polls-based) 48
    @GoodwinMJ (implied) 80
    @britainelects 60

    Mine – ALEX F : CON 324… NO OVERALL MAJ

  9. Some doubts about Con majority. Odds on a CON MAJ has dropped from 87% to 80% in last 70 minutes. Was 1.15 at 1pm today but now 1.25 on Betfair.

  10. Alex – it might be good to note *when* those predictions were made. A forecast of 400 seats for the Tories made four weeks ago isn’t worth a row of beans now.

  11. I’d have to agree, only because I don’t think there will be a hung parliament.

    I’m sticking with a Con majority of about 70, which would be 360 seats

  12. I think the Tories will get a majority of between 70 and 100, but a better Tory election campaign would have made the majority even bigger.

  13. My Guess

    Con 43% 345 Seats
    Lab 36% 224 seats
    LibDem 9% 10seats
    SNP 49 seats
    PC 2 seats
    Green 1
    Ind 1
    N Ire 18

  14. FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F:
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1

  15. FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F:
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1

  16. FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F:
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1

  17. FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F:// DEEPTHROAT
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1

  18. FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F:// DEEPTHROAT
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1

  19. Betting markets at this time still expecting a small CON MAJORITY It’s 66% likliehood on @Betfair

  20. “Every mile further north I go, the better it looks for the Tories”

  21. Well I was somewhat less wrong than other contributors but Alex F apart, we’ve been proved wrong.

  22. Tory- indeed!! Some of us ‘optimists’ looking very foolish. I hold my hands up . I honestly did not expect this.

  23. Thanks Tory. But still early although betting markets now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT which is now 69% likliehood.

  24. You forgot mine with 339 for Cons etc

  25. You might still be the closest mate!

  26. Tories doing worse in seats with a <55% leave vote.

    Watch out for at least few shocks e.g. Colne Valley.

  27. The projected 50-60% UKIP>CON not actually happening.

  28. This is a terrible night for the Conservatives.

  29. Several journalists quoting Conservative central office sources who say they’ve given up on a overall majority.

  30. BBC upped their Con forecast to 322, still shirt of majority but within the margin of error either way.

    Seems like Scotland in particular could help the Cons tonight rather than England.

  31. BBC forecast now 318 CON. NO OVERALL MAJ now 90% on betfair.

  32. The prediction is now for a Con majority of 2.

    Although that may be due to the SF gains.

    It looks like they’ve wiped the SDLP out and the DUP have wiped the UUP out.

  33. Very happy with my final prediction :
    FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F: (DEEPTHROAT)
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE

    Won a silly amount of money…on turnout, seats like Hampstead Harrow W Bermondsey, Ealing, Croydon C…etc. As I said yesterday the young came out and I hinted heavily that non voters would come out for Corbyn.

    Congrats to JACK SHELDON:and BT SAYS for calling BATTERSEA and Plymouth SUTTON D correctly – that was amazing.

    Another polling debacle…? Damian Lyons lowe of Survation however is a genius.

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10 Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    Survation: +1

    Voters seem to be becoming increasingly discerning and savvy.

  34. Well done Alex F. Can you confirm the suspicion I expressed a day or two ago, that you are Deepthroat? This has been the revenge of the Remainers indeed. Lancs Observer etc must be feeling sick as a dog. Can’t see how May can survive this, if she tries she’ll surely be ousted sooner or later

  35. Yes. I am DEEPTHROAT.

    I changed my moniker here after an unpleasant and upsetting
    experience on ukpr about 6 months ago.

    May must surely go..I agree. I can’t even see a CON/DUP coalition actually happening. I think another election very soon must be on CCHQ agenda. I think Boris might be the talisman for Conservatives.

  36. “I think another election very soon must be on CCHQ agenda. I think Boris might be the talisman for Conservatives.”

    It would be a risky strategy indeed, but perhaps there are few other options. I also can’t see the DUP being a workable coalition partner.

    “I changed my moniker here after an unpleasant and upsetting experience on ukpr about 6 months ago.”

    Sorry to hear that & glad to see you back.

  37. If they do go for it or cannot continue, they’ll probably want Aug/v. early Sept. A lot of students will not be back at term time address! Undemocratic but the – once again, nasty – Tories might do it.

  38. ” I am predicting that the Conservatives will make 41 gains:

    – From Labour (31): City of Chester; Halifax; Ilford North; Newcastle-under-Lyme; Barrow and Furness; Wolverhampton South West; North East Derbyshire; Harrow West; Bridgend; Middlesborough South and East Cleveland; Walsall North; Wrexham; Birmingham, Northfield; Wakefield; Birmingham, Edgbaston; Copeland; Stoke-on-Trent South; Clwyd South; Coventry South; Darlington; Blackpool South; Scunthorpe; Southampton, Test; Hyndburn; Bury South; Dudley North; Mansfield; Workington; Stoke-on-Trent North; Great Grimsby; Ashfield

    – From SNP (7): Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfries and Galloway; Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine; East Renfrewshire; Moray; Ochil and South Perthshire; Perth and North Perthshire

    – From the LDs (2): Southport; North Norfolk

    – From UKIP (1): Clacton

    I am predicting that Labour will make 10 gains:

    – From Conservative (4): Plymouth Sutton and Devonport; Brighton, Kemptown; Cardiff North; Battersea

    – From SNP (4): East Lothian; Paisley and Renfrewshire South; Rutherglen and Hamilton West; Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

    – From LD (1): Leeds North West

    – From PC (1): Arfon

    I am predicting that the Lib Dems will make 7 gains:

    – From Conservative (3): Twickenham; Bath; Richmond Park

    – From SNP (4): East Dunbartonshire; Edinburgh West; North East Fife; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    I am predicting that the DUP will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): South Antrim

    I am predicting that Sinn Fein will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): Fermanagh and South Tyrone

    I am predicting that Alliance will make 2 gains:

    – From DUP (1): East Belfast

    – From SDLP (1): South Belfast

    All this adds up to, if I am not mistaken, the following totals:

    CON 364 (+34)
    LAB 211 (-21)
    SNP 41 (-15)
    LD 12 (+4)
    DUP 8 (-)
    SF 5 (+1)
    PC 2 (-1)
    SDLP 2 (-1)
    Alliance 2 (+2)
    GRN 1 (-)
    Ind 1 (-)
    Speaker 1 (-)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    UUP 0 (-2) ”

    Looking back at my prediction from a week ago I obviously, like most people, got the result very wrong. But, with a few exceptions, I did okay in predicting where there would be bigger and smaller swings, and did particularly well on the LDs. My worst calls were Harrow West, where until Thursday the Cons had had a run of good results in various types of elections, and Southampton Test, where my prediction was based partly on a conversation with a very experienced campaigner in the area who had canvassed there (admittedly this conversation was very soon after the election was called, pre-manifesto). In both places Lab ultimately massively increased their majority rather than losing.

  39. I predicted NO OVERALL MAJORITY and thought that they would hold onto their Londonseats but I certainly disagreed with your BATTERSEA call. I also thought Labour would do better in Yorkshire and the NW AND NE.

    Do you think election polling needs a huge shake up? Survation and yougov to a lesser extent excepted they all screwed up.

  40. I think that after the amazing success this time in future we will see a lot more models of the type YouGov ran. I still can’t believe they managed to pick up the results in Canterbury and in Kensington. It isn’t entriely inconceivable that this type of thing might even displace conventional polling.

  41. Polling as we know it is broken. Jack’s probably right.

  42. Yes. And yougov calls on battersea and Canterbury near to crystal ball predictions.

  43. Kensington not Battersea.

  44. Yougov poll issued 10pm

    MAY should resign:
    Yes 48%
    No 38%

  45. Eye opening poll today:
    Panelbase Poll Sunday Times 25.6.17 –
    Lab 46%
    Con 41%

    Approval ratings
    Corbyn +17%
    May -17%

    Sample 5,000

  46. Wow. Is all.

  47. Thanks. Anthony needs to update the polls.

    Jack Sheldon – you said that the Tories had had a good run of results in Harrow West. That isn’t really true – it’s much truer of Harrow East, which of course was a Conservative hold. The Tories still do not hold any wards outright in the Harrow West constituency, although they are clearly ahead of Labour in Headstone N. Just before the general election, there was a Tory gain in Kenton E ward (either the first for decades, or the first ever – I think the former) from Labour. That ward is in Harrow East. It seems that in that ward the former Independent Labour Group vote went mainly to the Tories. But there was also a by-election in Roxbourne ward just previously, which is in Harrow West. This was a convincing Labour hold, but this time the former ILG vote seems to returned mainly to Labour. The predictions of a Tory gain in Harrow West were fair enough based on opinion polling early in the campaign, but in local & other elections there hasn’t been much evidence of serious Tory progress, in contrast to Harrow East. The 2 constituencies, despite some obvious similarities, are showing signs of diverging quite a lot now.

  48. Like a lot of seats the results are puzzling. Few more so than the two Harrow seats, esp HW. The MP there went from a 2,200 majority to 13,300 majority. I believe that the two main reasons for this were
    1. previous non voters voting LAB.
    2. The candidates. The Tory candidate wasn’t visible. Refused to turn up for all 3 hustings, whereas the incumbent was everywhere.

    In a similar sense, the choice of candidate quite probably was important in the Harrow East seat in reducing the CON maj by exactly 3,000.

  49. Harrow is of course in London and London as a whole was rather atrocious for the Tories. Harrow West was one of a fair number of seats that went from ‘marginal Labour’ to ‘strongly Labour’.

  50. Yes.

    The enormous yougov survey of GE2017 voters revealed that every single group by employment status voted Lab (by at least 4%) -apart from those who are retired.

    “Labour is in fact ahead amongst those in work: 4 points ahead amongst those working part time and 6 points ahead amongst those working full time, illustrating how the Conservatives are increasingly relying on the grey retired vote.”- yougov June 2017.

    It’s a shame that the survey didn’t ask respondents how they voted (or whether they were DNV) in GE2015.

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