Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 616 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. Good predictions from Tory.

    I notice both Tory and Jack are predicting a Lab gain in Plymouth Sutton. For some reason I just can’t see it happening. Sorry I can’t be more articulate, just a gut feeling.

  2. I was surprised to find myself predicting a Lab gain in Plymouth S&D. But it did swing to Lab in 2015 and has a 7% Green vote which I imagine will go straight to Lab. The Cons are clearly worried as May made her second visit to Plymouth of the campaign last week. I doubt it is Moor View they are worried about as that is more Brexity and Johnny Mercer is likely to have gone down well over the past two years.

  3. YouGov’s projection thing also suggests that generally Labour will do well in the South. This appear to include more working class seats such as Swindon or Hastings (and Plymouth) as well as the likes of Hove, Reading and Stroud.

  4. I think Plymouth’s military associations will mean Corbyn does less well there than in some other southern seats

  5. Fair enough Jack. I was also wondering about Paisley South? My grandparents live in the constituency and think Black is unlikely to lose. What was your reasoning there?

  6. @Tristan

    I have a hunch Scottish Lab will win 3-5 seats but pinpointing exactly which is very tricky beyond Edinburgh S and East Lothian. I went for Paisley because it had one of the smallest SNP majorities over Lab in 2015, and the Cons clearly have little support there so the unionist vote won’t be split as it might in some other seats with smaller SNP majorities over Lab

  7. I have a hunch LDs might miss out on E Dunbartonshire, despite it looking their best shot on paper, due to a much stronger Tory surge there than Edinburgh W and N-E Fife where the necessary tactical votes seem more ‘nailed on’.

    Not sure if NTY sees any merit in this.

  8. (Thanks to Jack for his responses).

    Plop you are super confident re: the Tories in Scotland. We’ll see how that pans out.

  9. I have noticed one thing about the recent polls that others have noted but is so potentially game changing it deserves being underlined.

    They suggest the young (<35y.o) are more likely to vote in 2017 than they did in 2015 AND the older ones (65+) are LESS LIKELY to vote in 2017 compared to 2015.

    Just taking ICM poll last week and its final 2015 one.

    Under 35 yr olds 68% say they were certain to vote in #GE2017 It was 58% in 2015.

    Over 65y.o – 81% in 2017 but was 87% in 2015.

    Of course the big question is: will the young vote in those numbers.

  10. I think it’s worth mentioning that in the run up to an election, polling responses always show a higher proportion of people saying they are certain to vote than actually vote on the day.

    The norm is for the actual turnout to be 10 points lower, so on the basis of ICM’s figures we might expect 71% of over-65s and 58% of under-35s to vote.

  11. Yes that’s correct but the point is young people – it seems – are more likely to vote and the older ones less likely when comparing the 2017 and 2015 polls.

  12. Yes that’s correct but the point is young people – it seems – are more likely to vote and the older ones less likely when comparing the 2017 and 2015 polls.

  13. @ Alex F

    Yes – I understand your point. I just thought it was worth pointing out that ICM are not saying that youth turnout will be 68% – they are simply recording the responses they have received. Their published figures include weightings modelled on the 2015GE pattern.

    I have seen a few cases where people have confused the reported likelihood to vote from polling data with the pollsters’ weighting of expected turnout.

  14. Ok TY.

    SURVATION POLL tonight
    CON: 41% (-2)
    LAB: 40% (+3)

    Fieldwork: 02 – 03 Jun)
    Chgs. w/ 27 May.

  15. Thanks to all for their interesting predictions. Naturally I think we can take Plopwellian Tory’s as the absolute best case for the Tories. So my quick and lazy base case prediction will derive from tweaking his 😉

    – halve the Tory gains from SNP (Con -5)
    – remove Tory gains from Lab in London and Hove (Con -4)
    – swap Lab gain Croydon Central for Brighton Kemptown (neutral)
    – remove the longest shot Tory gains from Lab outside London – Bishop A, Chorley, Hyndburn, Mansfield, Newport W, Gedling (Con -6)
    – Two LD gains from Con – say Bath and Twickenham (Con -2)
    – Something like three more Lab gains from SNP (Lab +3)
    – LD gain only 2 seats from SNP (LD -1)
    – Norman Lamb holds his seat (Con -1)

    By my reckoning that gives

    Con circa 360
    Lab circa 210
    LD 9
    SNP 43

    Con Maj of around 70

  16. Some interesting predictions here guys! Here’s my revised forecast accounting for some of the interesting changes this week. I’ll just work with the Tories as I don’t think there’ll be much of a gain for the LDs apart from a few seats here and there, especially in Scotland.

    – CON GAINS (+46)
    From LAB
    Ilford North, Enfield North, Eltham, North East Derbyshire, Gedling, Mansifeld, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wolverhampton South West, Walsall North, Birmingham Northfield, Stoke-on-Trent South, Stoke-on-Trent North, Dudley North, Walsall North, Halifax, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Scunthorpe, Batley and Spen, Great Grimsby, Don Valley, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Darlington, Bishop Auckland, City of Chester, Wirral West, Barrow and Furness, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Copeland, Blackpool South, Bolton North East, Wrexham, Bridgend

    From LD
    Carshalton and Wallington, North Norfolk, Southport

    From SNP
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Perth and North Perthshire, Moray, East Renfrewshire, Aberdeen South, Angus, Banff and Buchan

    From UKIP

    – CON LOSSES (- 7)
    To LAB
    Gower, Cardiff North, Brighton Kemptown, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bedford

    To LD
    Twickenham, Bath

    CON: ~ 370
    LAB: ~ 200
    SNP: ~ 43
    LD: ~ 8

    Some important points to note:
    – I still think YouGov is seriously overstating Labour support in London and believe that there will be a stark difference in voting behaviour between inner and outer London, hence the better Tory performance in terms of seats in my prediction.
    – The Tory surge in Scotland will be greater in the north east shoulder than elsewhere which is why I believe they will win all the seats there bar Aberdeen North and Gordon. Got a gut feeling for Banff and Buchan.
    – Although Labour have surged in Wales, I still think that the Tories will win seats with high leave/UKIP voters.
    – The polls with a high Labour vote in general are overstating youth turnout.
    – Even if the polls with a higher youth turnout are correct, most of the Tory-targeted marginals are older and whiter which will help them enormously.

  17. Just to quickly weigh in with my take on something if that’s ok- I am bearing in mind all these first time incumbent Labour and SNP MPs who either made gains last time or are in marginal seats their party already held in the sense that you may see a lot of them get a further vote share increase with the incumbency factor, but whether or not that will save a lot of these MPs is another matter entirely I’m sure…

  18. Interesting HH s projection is roughly where the betting is right now. Tories on 360 rather than 370. As I have said I see 370 as more likely. The media/metropolitan bubble, which constructed narratives about brexit not happening and Clinton being elected, is now hyping the labour surge by highlighting the polls which show labour only a little bit behind.

    In the real world labour are struggling in dozens of seats , far from the metropolis. Corbyn’s team have done a superb job at managing expectations, so the fifth consecutive election at which labour have lost seats will be spun as a kind of victory! We are in 2017 and EVERY general election in the century so far has seen Labour lose seats!!

  19. One interesting unknown is whether the terror issue will bring Labour’s London surge to a halt. Also when Londoners think of the tax implications of a Corbyn win they might think twice at the last minute. I agree with you that no-one who hates hedge funds is going to win a seat like Battersea in this day and age Brexit or not.

  20. HH- interesting predictions. You’re actually a fair bit more bullish on Tory prospects than I am. Any particular reasons for that?

  21. Remarkable discussion about Battersea. There were some predictions (no comment on the quality of the sources) that it would go Labour in 2015. In fact it was one of very few in London that swung to the Tories. It’ll be interesting to see if brexit has the effect predicted on here. Bear in mind that housing is very expensive and salaries well above average – affected by Labour’s tax proposals.

  22. Yes if the Conservatives hold on to Battersea it will be because of those earning £80k and those aspiring to in the near future.

  23. @PT call them gut feelings 😉

    The UKIP vote going massively to the Tories IMO.

  24. Not sure where this “labour winning batter sea” meme started. Bookies have Tories 1/7… Given the bankers and city types, it would be very strange for labour to win there. Anyone who knows the area will know how much it has changed in the last 20 years, it’s full of Old Harrovian stockbrokers these days!

  25. Yet another odd result and reason to call YG’s findings into question.

  26. I am struggling with this one:

    Everybody (quite rightly) is saying that the vast majority of UKIP votes are going to the Tories. If you take the average of the opinion polls it is Cons leading Labour by 7%, the same as it was last time. With LDs being roughly the same as last time does this mean that

    a) Labour have gained more Tory votes (can you give me the reason?)
    b) The polls are hopelessly wrong or
    c) The UKIP is being more evenly distributed?

  27. I think there will obviously be a slither of UKIP voters who vote Labour in seats with no UKIP like Bishop Auckland, Bassetlaw, Don Valley and even Lancaster, High Peak, Necastle uL etc as those voters will arrive at the polling station and make a forced choice although I expect a huge rise in the Tory vote on those places by default.

    In general though I have no idea about turnout in this election though. Obviously youth turnout over egged but will provincial NOTA leave voters turnout in high nos. if they’re disillusioned with both May and Corbyn?!

    I can’t call this election at all apart from Scotland where Jack’s analysis seems accurate.

    Anything from a Labour rout with Labour losing in places like Penistone and Blyth to coming out with 230 seats could theoretically happen.

    Hemmelig was right about Tories not falling below 40% but how can he be sure they don’t get 45% nationally?!

  28. “Hemmelig was right about Tories not falling below 40% but how can he be sure they don’t get 45% nationally?!”

    On a good night they might do so

  29. With 2 days to go, electoral calculus has Tories on 361, Hanretty s election forecast has 368, spread ex has 358-364, Stephen fisher had 360 as of 2nd June, not sure if he ll update.

    Yougov is on a limb, and a consensus is building around a 70 or so seat majority (360 Tory seats= 70 majority, as we should all know by now)..

    I think this slightly understates things but can’t wait to see whether the pundits get it totally wrong. Certainly a hung parliament would leave the punditocracy with egg on its collective face, while you got would seem like kings.

  30. If the polls are right I am struggling to reconcile an increase in Labour support by 1/3 since 2015.

    I think it likely that many UKIP ex-voters will revert to not bothering. Others may go Labour in larger numbers than is generally expected. I can’t see UKIP’s ex-voters in the welsh valleys going Conservative! But most in the Midlands and South will go Conservative . So not many additional Labour supporters.

    Labour may well do much better in places it does not need to. So it could overtake the Lib Dems and come a clear second in many of the safe Conservative seats in the South East and East of England. But there is no evidence that the closer seats in these regions are moving Labour.

    Equally, in safe Labour seats Corbyn may get the vote out to push up numerical support. Historically his own majority has been strong.

    Meanwhile, there is much evidence of ex-Labour older Brexit voters switching to the Conservatives. This is happening in the new towns and around the motorway network, in seats which have traditionally been marginal and could cost Labour.

    We are back in a two party system and this may confound thinking based on three decades of three party politics.

  31. Opinium – final poll
    CON 43%(nc)
    LAB 36%(-1)
    LDEM 8%(+2)
    UKIP 5%(nc).
    fieldwork 4/5 june….conducted after attacks

  32. I’m not sure the Copeland by election is a good example what will happen on Thursday Plop. Back in Feb Labour were on 25.9% and the Tories on 42%. Now Labour are on 36.1% and the Tories 43.8%. In Feb the swing was something like 5.5% to the Tories now it would be 1.5%. The Copeland swing was about 8% so about 3 points above the national swing in the polls.

  33. Does anybody really have a good idea as to what is happeining? It is not just that people got so badly burnt on the opinion polls in 2015. It is also the question as to how much late swing there may be and in what direction because, for instance, of terrorist events. Also, is anybody reasonably sure as to how many younger voters will turn out?

    For what it is worth, I don’t see all that many seats changing hands on Thursday; but I see them going both from Labour to Conservative and from Conservative to Labour.

  34. ha no people pretend they know but no one knows diddly squat, but your analysis is probably not bad

  35. ha no people pretend they know but no one knows diddly squat, but your analysis is probably not bad

  36. FS – well I haven’t changed my opinion throughout (Con maj 80+), but I admit it’s based on my own analysis and the polls on leadership over the past year, as my contact with voters has been small and so largely largely anecdotal – although it is an irrefutable fact that there are voters who say they were always Labour but not Corbyn and I don’t hear any going the other way – other than 3 seats in the NW where I do have a fair bit of insider knowledge from both sides and they’ll undoubtedly be v close.

  37. Lancs observer,

    An 80 majority means the Tories winning 365 seats, as of 9.30 am this morning, Hanretty’s forecast has con on 375, electoral calculus has them on 361, spreadex range is 360-366, betfair has the Tories in the 360s… There is a consensus on a 70 to 90 majority, which corresponds to the Tories getting between 360 and 370 seats…

    This roughly where expectations lie at the moment. Your 80 majority figure is roughly in line with all this.

  38. Frederic

    LOTS of seats will be changing hands Thursday, and in all directions.

  39. Matt W – it’s (Copeland) indicative of Cumbria though.

    ie nuclear, Corbyn etc being the issues there and in B&F etc.

    Peter C – thanks. I was mocked on here for maintaining that throughout when the YouGov poll came out though.

  40. PC – incidentally the Ladbrokes’ rep just said on the BBC Daily Politics that their current mid price for seats is also around 360 or a majority of 70.

  41. I don’t know where to post this but this is my view of what’s going on in the two areas I know best: Bristol West and Hertfordshire:

    -Labour will do extremely well in Bristol West as the Green vote collapses to them. The Lib Dems will do disappointingly as the ‘remoaner’ vote in this constituency is very pro-Corbyn and there will be some Tory tactical unwind. Having said that I did my civic duty and persuaded 3 soft Labour voters to vote Lib Dem instead :P.

    As for the other Bristol constituencies South will comfortably remain Labour and may well swing towards them due to the collapse of the Green vote. East on the other hand will be closer but I don’t think the Tories will take it (my guess would be a small swing to the Tories but I could well be wrong). North West will probably be held by the Tories my guess with a similarish majority to last time, if it was polled at present it would probably show a small to fair swing to Labour but I think there will be a last second swing back to the Tories amongst middle/upper-middle class, remain voting, Con-LD swing voters in Stoke Bishop, Henleaze and Westbury.

    As for the rest of ‘Avon’ Filton and Bradley Stoke and North Somerset will probably remain roughly static whilst Kingswood and North East Somerset I think will see small Tory swings. Weston will probably have a small Labour swing as I think the Lib Dem vote in the grottier parts of the town will continue to collapse. Thornbury and Yate I think will also have a decent LD -> Con swing with Labour also getting a fair vote share increase. At the beginning of the campaign I would have said Bath would have been a nailed on LD gain but now I think it will be a narrow Con hold due to a large Labour increase.

    -In Hertfordshire or more specifically St Albans/Hitchen and Harpenden/Hertsmere there were quite a lot of people on the fence for weeks as they don’t like May and were upset over the dementia tax. However the prospect of Corbyn becoming PM and the stuff with the IRA is finally beginning to set in and many will hold their nose and vote Tory as an anti-Corbyn vote as opposed to a pro-May one. The Lib Dems are being squeezed out of the conversation as many people who might have backed them are going to vote Tory against Corbyn. I suspect that many more here will go into the polling station undecided but will reluctantly vote Tory because of Corbyn.

    I can’t speak for the Tory-Labour marginals but I suspect at the very least those with a high proportion of pensioners will experience a last second strengthening of the Tory vote.

    Caveat: I am prepared to be completely wrong :P.

  42. just been on the ground in twickers and enfield north earlier in the week.

    I think it’ll be 90 majority more than I do 70. think there has been a slight swing to the blue status quo in the last day or two.

  43. BMG has the Tory lead at 13 points. Seems to corroborate a slight swing back in the dying days of the campaign and about where I’d predict the results to fall.

  44. Kent used to be full of marginal seats; but they are all now Conservative. As a result May, and come to that Corbyn, have ignored this county.

    Round these parts, it just doesn’t feel as though the Conservatives are going to increase their majority by 50; but it may be that opinion in this part of England is well out of line with other places.

    Of course Thanet South may be a bit of a special case in that the national politicians don’t want to get caught up in the legal proceedings.

  45. ALEX F prediction. Other’s predictions are given below:
    HUNG PARLIAMENT. Reasons: Increased young vote. GE2015 DNV voting this time. Labour voters will vote on their PPC rather than for Corbyn team.

    ALEX F:
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE

    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12
    ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8
    Opinium: +7
    TNS: +5
    YouGov: +7
    Survation: +1
    Ipsos Mori: TBA 12 noon today

  46. Average gap: 7.9% to Conservative
    Standard deviation: 3.9%

    So we’re likely to see a gap between 4 and 12 points. A four-point gap would basically replicate the Yougov nowcast. A twelve-point gap would deliver a Tory majority of about 70 on universal swing. At this point 12 points seems like a violation of common sense (at least as far as I am concerned), but would certainly be a good enough result for Theresa May to justify her decision.

  47. A number of modellers are clustering around the Tories on 365 (majority of 80)

    Hanretty 366
    Electoral calculus 361
    Spreadex 366 – 372

    Among others, someone will have egg on their face. Yougov, Survation, anyone?

  48. Final prediction

    Con 384
    Lab 190
    Lib 5
    Green 1

    Maj 133

  49. Con 368
    Lab 213
    SNP 44
    LD 3
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18

    Majority 42

  50. (Copied and pasted my prediction from main thread, where SS Simon is gathering them up / compiling them – though I’m not sure what the prize is yet!)

    Revised turnout prediction 69%

    GB numbers:

    Con 43.8% (339 seats*)
    Lab 38.3% (246 seats)
    LD 6.7% (6 seats)
    UKIP 5% (0)
    SNP / PC 3.9% (39 seats)
    Greens / others 2.5% (2 seats)

    * Saved by Scotland basically, expecting 15 gains there, also expect net couple of gains in Wales in spite of UNS there.

    Having looked at a few data tables, and read a few explanations from experts, I still haven’t really got a clue but I am not buying this ‘Lab piling up votes where least needed’ line from what I’ve seen. I think this oft-repeated assertion is basically an assumption, backed up sometimes by picking basic data rather selectively.

    I would have preferred it if May had come out of this strengthened and with a really good mandate in these uncertain times, but no point pretending the rest of the country all think this when the data is there to be seen.

    It is still possible that Nigel Marriott (who has some very plausible explanations for his figures IMO) is more accurate with his 100 seat majority, I also don’t buy the line that this is now ‘impossible’ though I think, on balance, it’s too optimistic for the Tories and not altogether picking up hidden volatile trends amongst parts of the population.

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