Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 616 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. Well, people aren’t looking at the bottom of this list any more, are they?

    Seats like Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow-in Furness and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk are still likely to fall IMO, even if the Conservatives lose seats elsewhere. But beyond that, there are dozens of PPCs who have seen their chances completely evaporate over the past couple of weeks. The Tories will go backwards in London, and possibly in Wales too.

  2. Quint, as an Australian I had an upfront seat to John Howard’s defeat in 2007. Let me just say that while the campaign against John Howard was definitely personal, directed and implacable, thus falling withint the description of a ‘decpitation’, Bennelong [his seat] was already a seat that Labor would have needed to win in order to form a government.

    In my view, a decapitation is much more separate from that kind of national campaign and is characterised by an abnormally large swing against the incumbent. However, in Howard’s case, the swing against him was actually lower than the state-wide swing so as far as a decapitation is concerned, not only do I think it’s not directly comparable, but is a poor example of a [successful] decapitation strategy.

  3. Hallam 2015 was not a traditional decapitation strategy in the sense that the Labour Party nationally wasn’t behind it.

    Aside from a couple of weeks help from some Labour Students Full Time Officers (which I think might have been paid by the party and which was hurriedly wrapped up by mutual disagreement over the content of leaflets) we didn’t get any significant resources, human or financial, from outside the CLP.

    Indeed, we wouldn’t have been able to use it much anyway, since Hallam CLP raised more money through crowdfunding during the campaign than we could legally spend.

    That having been said, that wasn’t the case on the other side. A friend of a friend who worked as the Lib Dem campaign coordinator in a seat they lost to the Tories in 2015 informs me the LDs spent over £300k on Hallam (largely on material that was within the letter of national spending while not quite stepping across the line into constituency spend, e.g. judicious use of “this area” and “Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats”, as well as distributing to some areas just outside the constituency for plausible deniability).

    This apparently amounted to around a third of their total spending during the campaign. So you could make the case that had Labour not run as intense a campaign against Clegg, the Tories wouldn’t have had a majority – but that relies on a number of assumptions. Would extra money have saved the Lib Dems in the South West where they collapsed? I’m not convinced.

  4. Sorry, posted before adding my final thought:

    If you think about it, the Labour Party thought until the last minute that it was heading for a minority government or a coalition. That being the case, they’d have little to gain from massively annoying the Lib Dems by taking out their leader. Especially as it would mean the LDs were leaderless (their Deputy Leader was standing down) during the period where negotiations would have been most critical.

  5. Tories will no go back in eithe London or Wales – watch this space by the way whereis Shaun Bennett

  6. Catmanjeff

    Why is your model predicting Dewsbury and Wakefield to fall to the Tories – but not Halifax and Lancaster & Fleetwood?

  7. On a 1.5% Lab to Con swing in London, and no seats changing hands between the Conservatives or LDs in either direction, the Tories gain five in London.

    On a 0.2% Con to Lab swing in London, the Tories suffer a net loss of one assuming no change between themselves and the LDs.

    As for the LDs. It’s not by any means a given that they make a gain in SW London, though the sheer scale of the Richmond Park swing implies that Brexit is a bigger issue there than in most places. It’s perfectly reasonable to assume no change of seats between Tory and LD, though most people who assume otherwise assume LDs gaining one or more of Richmond Park, Twickenham and Kingston and Surbiton, rather than losing Carshalton and Wallington.

    Given the large movements in the national polls in the past two weeks, and given that London is not immune to the national picture but nonetheless can behave in a very different way, we don’t have enough polling evidence to say that the Conservatives “will not go back in London”, or indeed that they “will go back in London”.

    Unlike other parts of the country where a reasonably clear prediction on the general direction of travel can be made, the net situation in London is in my opinion going to be unknown until election night itself.

  8. Carshalton is a sure fire con gain. ive been out there and Tom Brake is a goner. I

  9. Labour now get within 3%.

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    YouGov / 30 – 31 May)

  10. The 3% Tory lead in that poll is in line with YouGov’s new seat estimates thing.

    Obviously there is a lot of other polling evidence out there which shows a better picture for the Tories, but if this poll and the seat estimates were right it would be on the cusp of putting the Tories out of power. May would probably need at least 315 seats to carry on with the help of DUP and/or UUP, and YouGov currently have the Tories around 311.

  11. Fair enough. Other polls are giving 8% ; 10% CON leads. Being honest even serious Corbynites shouldn’t expect even a hung parliament unless around at least half of the polls are showing a LABOUR LEAD.

  12. (Assuming the polls are within MOE)

  13. You Gov is rather out on a limb at the moment.

    Whether or not its polling is correct, its seat estimations are an amateurish embarrassment.

  14. You gov predicted 284 Tory seats in 2015 and Kellner flatly denied that the exit poll which actually underestimated the Tory seat haul on the night, why do we give credence to these guys? They also got the referendum wrong with their last poll showing a remain lead of 2 %…

  15. Despite the name, this is Chris K posting – for some reason all of my comments have been put into moderation for the last couple of months (I genuinely haven’t got the foggiest why). So this might be my one and only contribution!

    It’s been interesting reading the various contributions, albeit frustrating not to be able to join in. I, like most on here, think that this campaign has rather exposed a myth regarding Theresa May, namely that she was ever a truly high quality politician. She showed durability at the Home Office, but I never really rated her at any given point.

    Moreover, the Tory campaign has been strongly reminiscent of various sporting contests where someone is so far ahead they don’t quite know what to do. She should have allowed herself to look a little more human (whilst I don’t think the TV debates have much impact, to put herself in a position where she had to justify not going is a tactical mistake in itself, let alone not attending). I genuinely think anyone on here could have run a more competent, intellectually coherent, tactically astute, and above all else consistent campaign – and it is actually the consistency which was the key aspect to maintain throughout.

    I still, in my gut, feel that the Tories will gain seats rather than lose them, but I think it will be marginal – the economy is slowing (and the majority don’t feel affluent despite the putative growth figures), I don’t think her government has been particularly competent (witness the NI tax episode). I have some sympathy on social care and the need to balance the budget – but removing school dinners from kids (which incidentally has cost her my partner’s normally reliable vote – she think it’s crass and unnecessary) and some of the other policies were self-inflicted wounds. And the ‘strong’ persona regarding Brexit has receded.

    I think she’ll get away with it as although I think she will leak some votes to the LD’s, the UKIP vote will more than compensate. I think she’ll lose a few seats to Labour (Kemptown, Bedford, possibly Copeland and a few other marginals) and lose Twickenham, Bath, Eastbourne, and possibly Cheltenham and Oxford West and Abingdon to the LDs, but this will be more than offset by gains from Labour (perhaps around 15) though these won’t be anything like as numerous as previously expected, and 2-3 gains from the SNP in Scotland. I put a tenner on 331-349 seats at 10/1 on 23 May and it remains my best guess.

    I never really bought into the Tories getting near 50%, I think they would have had to have a growing economy with genuine wage growth, and made a more coherent case for cuts and implemented them in a more competent and compassionate way to get anything like that. I also think that (whilst personally I think the Labour manifesto is a like a little kid’s Christmas wish list with no realistic means for paying for it – there will be a lot of very disappointed Labour supporters down the line if they get in) the political atmosphere in the world at the moment is such that realism doesn’t seem to matter – a lot of people just seem to want what appears to be an easy antidote, be it left or right, to multiple complex issues. Therefore whilst I would genuinely be surprised to see Labour poll in the high thirties, suppression of the LD and Green vote does mean I think he’ll poll higher than Miliband did.

    My guess would be Con 42%, Lab 34%, LD 10%, UKIP 5%, Grn 2%, ‘others’ 8%. Majority c.30-35.

  16. Tim S

    Your figures show a 60 majority acc. to electoral calculus. Not sure how you get to 30 to 35 majority.

  17. Peter
    He’s probably using another model perhaps even the swingometer on this very site which I feel is probably wise, I’ve always though the EC model was a pretty generous to the Cons.

  18. Rivers – I must confess, I’m not using any model (but I appreciate you giving me the credit that I might have been!;-).

    It’s more a feel thing – in reality, whatever models project, it’s perfectly possible that a very wide range of results can be achieved. For example, albeit on different boundaries, the Tories won the 1992 election on 42% to 35% but this only produced a majority of 21 (from memory). I know it sounds completely vague but I feel even if the Tories do score in the low to mid 40s, it won’t be a ‘conviction’ vote, rather they will be piling up votes in constituencies they already hold (and doubtless increasing their majorities by hovering up UKIP votes). The Tories could only go one way given the polls at the start of the election, likewise Corbyn was only likely to improve (and whilst I like him, I do think that far more scrutiny should be given to his financial plans – I’d probably start, as I would with any politician, with “how does money work”) therefore I think that there may be sufficient enthusiasm from younger voters, and a number of Labour waverers who may return to the fold due to the Tories manifesto and dire campaign, plus tactical voting by LDs and Greens, that the Tories will miss a number of targets even on a superficially impressive vote share.

    Unscientific I appreciate 😉

  19. PS those last two posts were rather streams of consciousness from a frustrated poster 😉 Future ones will be far briefer.

  20. Thinking entirely with my head, 331-349 is a possibility of course but my current CON seat total is 378. OVERALL MAJ 106

  21. Alex F

    I am with you on this one. Looking at Chris Hanretty, electoral calculus and listening to rob Hayward , I think the majority will be 80 to 100, and have plumped for 90 as a midway point of this range.

    You Gov have gone rogue and will look like geniuses or muppets. There has clearly been tightening in the polls, and May social care policy compounded with the U turn were disastrous for her personal brand. You never heard “strong&stable” after that, but the idea that Corbyn is on the verge of winning labour seats is fanciful. Maybe I am wrong and labour will get gains … Just not sure where that’s coming from.

  22. Peter Crawford, I definitely agree with you; YouGov along with Survation too, have consistently produced some of the best polls for Labour. I tend to think that the Tories may even outperform some of their better polls and end up on around 47% with Labour on 32% although that’s just my gut speaking.

    I know I sound like a broken record here, but even if the vote is more in Labour’s favour, the seat-by-seat breakdown will massively help the Tories. The massive increase in Labour’s vote has been primarily driven by the young. However, looking at Labour’s marginals, they tend to be older and whiter generally speaking which will definitely favour the Conservatives. Even in seats more diverse and with remain majorities, these tend to be clustered at the bottom of the pendulum while the harder seats are the one’s with the massive UKIP vote for the Tories to harvest. This is without even mentioning the fact that these young voters may not even turnout like the polls say which would automatically bolster the Tory lead significantly.

    Furthermore, looking at the underlying demographic attitudes such as who would make a better Prime Minister, satsifaction with Brexit and so on, Theresa May and the Tories are miles ahead. In the past, these indications have often been more correct in predicting the results than the polls themselves!

    On the flipside, there are also few specific seats where the Tories are in danger. Early in the campaign it looked as if the LDs were going to pose a significant challenge but that has largely faded away bar a few seats here and there. I don’t think the Tories will lose more than 3 or 4 to them (Twickenham, Richmond Park, Bath etc). In Labour’s case, there are also precious few marginals that they could possibly gain apart from 4 or 5 (Kemptown, Gower, Bedford etc).

    Looking at the seats themselves, I’m tentatively forecasting a majority of ~120 for the Tories which admittedly, is on the higher end of the spectrum. Overall, that’s a gain of 9 from the SNP, 3 from the LDs, 1 from UKIP and 46 from Labour with a probable loss of around 5 seats or so. Before you all scream, just hear me out.

    The main caveat to the aforementioned projection is that many of those gains (18 by my calculations) are tossup contests with a further 6 where the Tories are slightly favoured. So, say the Tories don’t win any of those contests; that’s still a gain of 35 seats. I don’t forecast more than 10 losses maximum so even factoring all of those in, still puts them on 356 seats and a majority of 60ish.

    Of course, that’s all predicated upon my suspiscion of some of the narrower polls predicting higher youth turnout, underlying demographics and the fortuitous seat-by-seat battle for the Tories. If that all goes pear-shaped, then I freely concede my prediction is going to be wrong BIG TIME.

    That’s just my two-cents for what it’s worth.

  23. Thanks for the last two posts. One thing that may be ought to be considered is that yougov Ltd are owned by Tories. By coming up with this new system it Could be just a way of stirring up doubt of the outcome.

    YouGov and the Conservatives may have information that the young people vote will be up and by putting the result in doubt – that is suggesting there could be a hung parliament / “coalition of chaos” – they are making sure their voters ESPECIALLY the CON remain voters stay loyal.

  24. I find it hard to believe that those who own YouGov would sacrifice their professional reputation as pollsters in order to incentivise people to vote Tory.

    And while some say that the constituency estimates are rubbish, the overall ‘shape’ of what they are showing looks quite consistent with other evidence. That is that Labour seem to be doing well in the most Remain-voting central London seats, and also in a number of Southern towns, but are struggling especially in smaller towns in the North and more generally in the Midlands. Whatever one expects the overall result to be, I think the pattern of divergent swings looks likely.

  25. Alex
    “One thing that may be ought to be considered is that yougov Ltd are owned by Tories. By coming up with this new system it Could be just a way of stirring up doubt of the outcome”

    How very conspiratorial but I doubt it, less so for the reasons you’ll hear from others (it would tank YouGov’s rep and political polling is a loss leader) and more due to the fact that it just wouldn’t/isn’t work(ing). In my experience every poll that shows a close race has done more to aid Lab (by enthusing their vote) than the Cons. As I’ve said many times before the Tory vote nearly always comes out in force and I imagine any that saw JC as a real threat could very much be relied on to vote even when it looked like he had no chance
    Labs vote though (particularly its young vote) is much more fickle but the tightening of the race has done wonders in enthusing people who (rightly or wrongly) seem to sense change on the horizon.

    Not making any big predictions on the outcome of the election but if this was a grand conspiracy to boost Tory turnout its probably backfired (at least in my anecdotal experience) since it seems to have done a much better job at boosting Labs turnout.

  26. ‘That is that Labour seem to be doing well in the most Remain-voting central London seats, and also in a number of Southern towns,’

    Beyond Slough, Luton and parts of the cities of Bristol, Oxford and Brighton & Hove, Labour are as poorly represented in southern towns today as they were during their nadir years in the 1980s

    They have no representation in the working class port towns of Portsmouth and Plymouth, and the New Towns like Stevenage, Harlow and Swindon – that had been pretty loyally Labour for nearly all of the post-war period up until 1983, has seen their vote decimated

    London is a different case entirely and it will be interesting to see if there is an anti-Tory swing in anti-Brexit affluent seats like those in Wandsworth where Labour dud well during the Blair years

  27. I’m not sure that’s completely true, Tim. Labour hold 9 seats over the South & East of England outside London, compared to 3 and 6 in 1983 & 1987 respectively.

    Incidentally, YouGov’s projection has Labour ahead in both Southampton seats, one in Plymouth, plus Hastings, Kemptown and Ipswich, and also ‘tossups’ in Reading East and Canterbury (!).

  28. Exactly.

  29. If YG’s extrapolation did come to pass it would mean that there would be sizable swings in both directions in a way that I don’t think has happened in any other post-45 election. The odd few seats often swing the ‘wrong’ way, and in an election with v little Con/Lab swing like 2015 marginals can obviously go both ways. But for Lab to have a big enough swing to get close in Canterbury, at the same time as the Cons get close in Mansfield, would be extraordinary. YG may be picking up something others are missing, but I’m sceptical – wider polling data has not shown significant Con losses among Remain voters.

  30. ‘Labour hold 9 seats over the South & East of England outside London, compared to 3 and 6 in 1983 & 1987 respectively.’

    Although on current boundaries Slough and at least one of the Luton seats would have been Labour throughout the 1980s, so to me Labour’s position in the South seems as precarious now as it was back then

    You Gov might have Labour ahead in the seats you mention but I just don;t trust polls and with the exception of kemptown, which I still think they could fall short, I don’t see them gaining any of those seats

    Corbyn might have performed a little better than many thought him capable, and Theresa May has gone out of her way to prove that she couldn’t be further from a strong and stable leader, but with the insidious Lynton Crosby back in control of the Tory campaign the last few weeks look as if they are going to get very nasty indeed, which the bulk of British people seem to quite like, so I’d expect the Tories to get over the line, although a majority of 50 looks more right than one exceeding 100

  31. The likelihood of huge variations in swings across the country has been noted enough times on here now.

    Given that previously we were talking about the difference between very small or no swings to Tories previously and perhaps 15%-type swings to them when they were riding high in the polls, the same logic suggests that in a close election the variation will be between 8% to Cons and 8% to Labour.

  32. “but I just don;t trust polls ”

    Fair enough, but as this is a polling site, I trust that you’ll not mind me mentioning what the UK’s largest polling organisation is reporting.

  33. BritainElects just published what I believe is their first predictions ever. Interesting map, has the Tories up 32 from last time.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBQ5LxlXgAEX7Yj.jpg:large

  34. it’s not a prediction it’s what their polling average translates to in seats and they used to do this on their old spreadsheets

  35. I won’t have time to do this during the week so I think the time has come to stick my neck on the line and predict the result.

    I have done this by going through all the seats I predict will change hands. Inevitably a lot of these are tough calls that could go either way, and so there is a good deal of guess work involved. But I hope it is reasonably educated guess work. I have genuinely gone through seat-by-seat rather than starting with a figure for a majority and then picking seats to fit it, but what I have come up with fits approximately to my expectations – the Cons will win a handsome majority, but not of the scale they would have got had the election been held a month ago; Labour will avoid total embarrassment and get a few standout trendbucking results, but ultimately still go backwards.

    I am predicting that the Conservatives will make 41 gains:

    – From Labour (31): City of Chester; Halifax; Ilford North; Newcastle-under-Lyme; Barrow and Furness; Wolverhampton South West; North East Derbyshire; Harrow West; Bridgend; Middlesborough South and East Cleveland; Walsall North; Wrexham; Birmingham, Northfield; Wakefield; Birmingham, Edgbaston; Copeland; Stoke-on-Trent South; Clwyd South; Coventry South; Darlington; Blackpool South; Scunthorpe; Southampton, Test; Hyndburn; Bury South; Dudley North; Mansfield; Workington; Stoke-on-Trent North; Great Grimsby; Ashfield

    – From SNP (7): Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfries and Galloway; Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine; East Renfrewshire; Moray; Ochil and South Perthshire; Perth and North Perthshire

    – From the LDs (2): Southport; North Norfolk

    – From UKIP (1): Clacton

    I am predicting that Labour will make 10 gains:

    – From Conservative (4): Plymouth Sutton and Devonport; Brighton, Kemptown; Cardiff North; Battersea

    – From SNP (4): East Lothian; Paisley and Renfrewshire South; Rutherglen and Hamilton West; Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

    – From LD (1): Leeds North West

    – From PC (1): Arfon

    I am predicting that the Lib Dems will make 7 gains:

    – From Conservative (3): Twickenham; Bath; Richmond Park

    – From SNP (4): East Dunbartonshire; Edinburgh West; North East Fife; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    I am predicting that the DUP will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): South Antrim

    I am predicting that Sinn Fein will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): Fermanagh and South Tyrone

    I am predicting that Alliance will make 2 gains:

    – From DUP (1): East Belfast

    – From SDLP (1): South Belfast

    All this adds up to, if I am not mistaken, the following totals:

    CON 364 (+34)
    LAB 211 (-21)
    SNP 41 (-15)
    LD 12 (+4)
    DUP 8 (-)
    SF 5 (+1)
    PC 2 (-1)
    SDLP 2 (-1)
    Alliance 2 (+2)
    GRN 1 (-)
    Ind 1 (-)
    Speaker 1 (-)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    UUP 0 (-2)

  36. Ty for that.

    No time for a full response but I think the CON total slightly low. I rather think it’ll be 375 (+/- 5).

    On the individual seats: disagree with HARROW W (LAB will HOLD), RICHMOND PARK & BATTERSEA (CON will HOLD). Battersea is such a big call it would be good to see yr reasoning behind that prediction.

  37. @ Jack Shelton

    I reckon that your forecast would be consistent with about an 11-12% Con lead. Is that what you are expecting?

    @ Alex F
    YouGov London poll showing a 4% Con to Lab swing might explain the difference of Jack’s guesses to yours.

  38. A 4% swing won’t be enough to oust Jane Ellison – she has a 15.6% lead.

  39. Yes, that’s true, but there are some signs of Labour doing best in inner London remain seats. Battersea is the Tories’ most ‘Remainy’ seat in the whole country, so might be one to buck the trend; as you say, it would take a big swing.

  40. ICM POLL this morning gives a 11% Con lead. Fieldwork 2-4/6/17. Penultimate ICM poll.

    Conservative 45% (nc)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (nc)
    UKIP 5% (nc
    Green 3% (nc)
    SNP 4% (nc)

  41. Well done, Jack S.

    It’s a well thought out prediction. I expect the numbers will be similar to what you say, though the details may be different.

    I don’t see Labour winning Battersea. It’s a very wealthy area nowadays, not like it was for most of the 20th century. the working class labour vote there isn’t what it was.

    I think the Tories may gain Carshalton and I think they’ll hold Richmond (hold from last general election)…

    so I suppose I see tories more in the 370s than 360s…

  42. I have Battersea down as a Lab gain.

    I am almost certain of it – though with Battersea bridge etc., which I assume is in this constituency, Saturday’s attack on London Bridge could possibly change the priorities in specific seats like this, making it harder to predict.

    I also expect Labour to make other gains in London, Croydon Central and possibly Harrow East spring to mind. Though Tories still in with a shout in Dagenham and Rainham, but with Lab strong favourites.

    I also have a hunch Brentford and Isleworth may remain close, though Lab strongly favoured, and – like Peter – expect Cons to hold Richmond Park and win Carshalton and Wallington. However, I expect Lib Dems to just edge Kingston.

    I also think Lab might just hold Ilford North.

    That’s my critique of Jack’s London predictions FWIW! There are various other Con gains on Jack’s list that I don’t believe will happen also.

    I’ll attempt to come up with my own between now and 10.00 p.m. Thursday. On the whole, I think the result will be much closer than Jack and Peter predict, but firmly believe that Cons will gain more than Jack’s 7 in Scotland – at least 10 IMHO.

  43. London P.S.

    I also think Finchley & Golders Green is a likely Labour gain, and Chipping Barnet a long shot for them (Cons still narrowly favoured).

  44. I would guess that if LAB gained Harrow E, Battersea & FGG there will be a hung parliament with Labour up to around 280 seats.

  45. BT – that’s (F&GG) unlikely just on the Jewish vote alone.

  46. My logic for Battersea is basically that Theresa May is likely to go down like a cup of cold sick in inner London seats. It is isn’t only Brexit – it is that her whole pitch seems to be contrary to what diverse, liberal London wants in a political leader. Luckily for the Cons there are few Con-held marginals in London, and those semi-marginal seats that might come into play on a strong swing to Lab are mostly in outer London boroughs where I expect the Tory vote to hold up better – Harrow, Barnet, Enfield and Croydon.

  47. My predictions above are heavily (though not exclusively) based on % of Brexit votes in each.

    NB Battersea was 70% Remain – hence why the swing against Cons will be greater than the overall London swing. Worth noting that Survation’s poll of Battersea was done when Cons were still polling 20% ahead nationally, and polls were showing a swing even in London TO Cons – yet this Battersea poll still showed a swing TO Labour of 2.5%. So an 8%+ swing to Lab based on current polling is realistic.

    Though I would suggest Putney is just a stretch too far, unless Lab end up nearly neck and neck with Cons nationally (or London swing is >5% to Lab).

  48. I know I said I was not posting again till Thursday evening (another ‘Tory’ u-turn tee hee) but I thought I would set out my predictions for what little they are worth. I am of the view that a hung parliament is a real possibility but my hunch is that the Conservatives will achieve a modestly increased majority on a lead of about 8%. I suspect we will see wildly contrasting swings across the country.

    Con 348 (+18)
    Lab 225 (-7)
    LD 9 (+1)
    SNP 45 (-11)

    CON GAINS

    From Lab: (1) Halifax (2) Newcastle-under-Lyme (3) Barrow & Furness (4) Dewsbury (5) NE Derbyshire (6) Middlesbrough S (7) Walsall North (8) Birmingham Northfield (9) Wakefield (10) Copeland (11) Stoke South (12) Coventry South (13) Blackpool South (14) Scunthorpe (15) Bishop Auckland (16) Dudley North (17) Stoke North

    From UKIP: (1) Clacton

    From LD (1) Southport (2) Carshalton & Wallington (3) North Norfolk

    From SNP (1) Berwickshire (2) Dumfries & Galloway (3) West Aberdeenshire (4) Moray (5) Perth (6) Aberdeen South

    LAB gains

    From Con: (1) Croydon Central (2) Plymouth Sutton (3) Weaver Vale (4) Brighton Kemptown (5) Gower (6) Cardiff North (7) Battersea

    From LD: (1) Leeds North West

    From SNP (1) East Lothian (2) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

    LD gains

    From Con: (1) Twickenham (2) Kingston & Surbiton

    From SNP: (1) East Dunbartonshire (2) Edinburgh West (3) North East Fife

  49. Decent predictions

  50. Plopwellian Tory- indeed I am. I think the swings will be all over the shop with Labour struggling in the small town midlands and north but performing reasonably strongly in more urban/university/middle-class public sector seats.

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