Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 616 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
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  1. Just wanted to say that you need to alter the white on yellow text to black on yellow, or grey on yellow. It’s impossible to read.

  2. Reads OK to me – you need to get your glasses changed

  3. Now that the Conservatives have got closer to listing their 40:40 target list, it might be an idea to update this. Some of the Conservative target seats are further away in terms of the swing needed, but assumed to be more winnable. In terms of the seats that will actually see the extra campaigning resources, the list compiled by the Conservative Party would be more helpful. Perhaps this will be the case for Labour and the Liberal Democrats as well.

  4. The Conservatives must surely take one of the seats on this list beacuse they have usually gained seats even when they have lost an election other than defeats like 1997.

    1964: Smethwick, Eton & Slough
    1974: Feb Ealing Acton, East Dunbartonshire, Berwickshire & East Lothian.

  5. Ealing Acton wasn’t a gain in 1974 there were extensive boundary changes which turned it into a Tory seat. The same is probably true of East Dunbartonshire

  6. We are in 2014 not 1974 or 1964.

  7. A timely reminder.

  8. Interesting there are about 950 responses on the labour targets thread and about 8 on this conservative targets one!

  9. Okay, I’ll make it 9 by agreeing with the perceptive comment from T Hudson, above. The SNP-held seats are even more difficult to read. Just because someone says they’re okay by him doesn’t help the rest of us. And I’ve had my eyes tested recently and my optician said I don’t need my glasses changed. No political party with any sense would distribute leaflets with those combinations of colours.
    As for East Dunbartonshire the boundary changes implemented in Feb 1974 took out heavily Labour Clydebank and brought in the-then heavily Tory Bearsden. The Tories managed to lose the seat to the SNP in the October election and they, in turn, lost the seat to Labour in 1979. In 1983 the constituency was abolished. The new Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat was won by the Tories but they lost it to Labour in 1987. They held it until that seat was abolished in 2005.

  10. I’m colour-blind and struggle to read the white on yellow – I have to highlight each bit to actually read it. It’s not a big issue, HH’s patronising response on the other hand…

  11. Flare…
    He – HH – seems to be the self appointed arbiter of….well, of everything; but No worries – in December he promised to leave us all and not ‘contribute’ anymore. Although I will not be holding my breath.

    I too find it somewhat difficult to read without magnifying greatly, esp on my android phone. .

    the GE campaign started in earnest this week, I thought I would offer my prediction. I did a few hours work on this and used 4 sources of information which I weighted. A little unusual and not entirely scientific but I have attempted to pull together 3 or 4 sources of opinions plus any polls.
    ————————————————————————————————————-
    Prediction for GE2015: as things stand now.
    The following was arrived at using:…. % weighting given
    ASHCROFT polls where found………………approx…35%
    electionforecast.co.uk. votes share predictions..25%
    bookmakers & exchanges markets ………………….25%
    electoralcalculus.co.uk votes share predictions..10%
    my own judgements. ………………………………………..5%

    CON….279.…..-23
    LAB. ..299…..+44
    LD……..27……..-29
    SNP…..18…….+12
    UKIP……4………+2 (Clacton/ThanetS/BostonS/Thurrock)
    PC………2……….-1
    GRN……1 (hold)
    SPKR….1
    ??……….1. (Watford)
    NI……..18

    The 1 seat ?? WATFORD is so close using the three sources (that is: they contradict/disagree) I cannot separate a winner.

    There 43 seats that are very close and the ‘winner’ I have chosen is only just been ahead ( using the information I have applied).
    For examples:
    Mid Dorset N Poole. …………….CON gain
    Cheltenham, North Devon & Portsmouth S. Southport. . LD HOLDs
    Dudley S., Great Yarmouth, Harrow E. .. CON HOLDs
    Northampton North. Nuneaton , SOTON Itchen.. LAB GAINs/HOLD
    All Glasgow seats won by LAB except GLASGOW NORTH – SNP

    Any, or all, of these 43 seats could go to another party that I have selected of course.

    I suppose an overview could be – LAB gain some seats from CON and LD but not all their probable targets and for LAB to not lose as many seats to SNP as the current polls would indicate. If the SNP present polling does hold up then LAB will be closer to 284-286 seats.

  12. So presumably (if Soton Itchen is a LAB hold) you don’t have any Con gains from Lab?

    The above is fairly close to what I think will happen (but mine is not based on anything approaching analytical)

  13. deepthroat,

    quite sensible. I have the tories slightly less and labour slightly more…something like Con 269 Lab 301….i don’t think the tories will hold dudley south; not sure about them regaining rochester. have the lib dems on about 30, so fewer tory gains than i suppose you have. the snp i don’t think will get more than 15 seats, so labour a touch higher than your prediction.

  14. That is quite close to my own figures too as it happens. I do still think the LDs will end up with somewhat more seats than that, but not that many. There is certainly nothing that anyone fair-minded would call nonsensical in that.

  15. “All Glasgow seats won by LAB except GLASGOW NORTH – SNP”

    I think the SNP is more likely to take Glasgow Central or Glasgow South.

    I also think that Labour is more likely to take East Dunbartonshire than hold a number of seats like Dundee West.

    If I was Murphy, I would focus on Labour maintaining a majority of Scottish seats 30 plus (not holding 41 seats) and somewhere like East Dunbartonshire could be the silver linging to the cloud of a bad night.

    By gaining a seat Scottish Labour could at least argue “well you win some and lose some”.

  16. Flare….Correct – no CON gain from LAB – the most likely, in my book, by a long chalk is SOTON ITCHEN of course….then BOLTON W but this seat is very unlikely to change hands IMO.

    PC-thanks for your comments.
    I have CON as gaining Rochester/S.
    Your CON seat total is noticeably lower than mine and at most bookmakers; for example, currently, the line at LADBROKES is at 281.5 seats.
    Your LAB total of 301 suggests you agree with me that the SNP will not get around 30 seats .(27.5 with LADBROKES) …?

    BTW: TURNOUT – Bookies’ turnout line is 68.5%.

    i hope UKPR will set up a section for turnout so it could be discussed fully and properly.

    I think it could be high-ish, because, inter alia, with IER meaning that there will be less people on the register that are likely to be DNV…my guess is 71%

  17. Here’s my current prediction:

    Labour gains from Conservatives: (39)

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Hove
    Brighton Kemptown
    Hastings and Rye
    Croydon Central
    Brentford and Isleworth
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Enfield North
    Bedford
    Thurrock
    Ipswich
    Waveney
    Cardiff North
    Halesowen and Rowley Regis
    Dudley South
    Wolverhampton South West
    Nuneaton
    North Warwickshire
    Cannock Chase
    Northampton North
    Corby
    Erewash
    Amber Valley
    Broxtowe
    Sherwood
    Lincoln
    Cleethorpes
    Dewsbury
    Pudsey
    Keighley
    Weaver Vale
    Warrington South
    Wirral West
    Bury North
    Lancaster and Fleetwood
    Morecambe and Lunesdale
    Carlisle
    Stockton South

    Labour gain from Lib Dems: (10)

    Brent Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Cambridge
    Norwich South
    Cardiff Central
    Manchester Withington
    Burnley
    Bradford East
    Redcar
    East Dunbartonshire

    Labour gain from Greens: (1)

    Brighton Pavilion

    UKIP gain from Conservatives: (1)

    Clacton

    Conservative gain from Lib Dems: (11)

    St Austell and Newquay
    North Devon
    Taunton Dean
    Wells
    Somerton and Frome
    Mid Dorset and Poole North
    Portsmouth South
    Chippenham
    Solihull
    Berwick upon Tweed
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

    SNP gains from Lib Dems: (6)

    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
    Gordon
    Argyll and Bute
    North East Fife
    Edinburgh West

    SNP gains from Labour: (3)

    Dundee West
    Ochill and South Perthshire
    Falkirk

    DUP gain from Alliance: (1)

    Belfast East

    So the composition of the new House of Commons will be:

    Labour: 305
    Conservatives: 278 (Including Mr Speaker)
    Lib Dems: 30
    SNP: 15
    DUP: 9
    Sinn Fein: 5
    SDLP: 3
    Plaid: 3
    UKIP: 1
    Independent: 1

    That would give a Labour/Lib Dem coalition a working majority of 20 seats in the House of Commons. Although I think a more informal confidence and supply agreement between the two parties is the more likely outcome.

  18. I agree with most of those predictions, although they are a bit on the favourable side for Labour IMO.

  19. Adam- interesting contribution…no time for a full response but;

    Was the majority of 20 you gave a typo? Because the number for an absolute majority in the new House of Commons will once again be 323, not 326. (SF not taking up their seats)…so 335 LAB/LD seats would be a 12 seats majority..?

    I find your LAB total too high. Re: your individual seats predictions, I think – (straying from the method I used above within my post of 4.56pm), that CON will hold HALESOWEN RR and HARROW EAST.

  20. I based that on the government having 335 seats and the opposition having 315.

  21. Yes. Sorry. I see what you mean…although SF and the four speakers complicate…so a 335 seat LAB/ LD govt would give a working major of 25….?
    650
    minus SF and two Speaker/Deputy Speaker from LAB & CON. .
    =641

    335 – 2 dep spkr = 333 LAB/LD
    641 – 333 = 308
    333 – 308 = 25 (effective majority)

  22. Think Adams in a dream world with some of those predictions

  23. Adam’s lists are quite sensible, though I think the tories will hold Harrow East and Cleethorpes. also don’t think polly billington will win thurrock for labour. My money’s on Tim Aker, as are the bookmakers’ odds. also think boston and skegness is a ukip gain.

    like adam, i don’t actually think the snp will gain that many from labour, but time will tell. They will either gain a handful 3-5 from labour or sweep the board in Scotland (30+) …think the snp outcome is rather binary.

  24. My prediction is based on the assumption that Labour will do slightly better per cent age wise in their marginal seats than they will do in the country as a whole, much like they did in 1992. This will give them about 20 extra (and vital) seats.

    Thurrock is a 3 way marginal that’s difficult to predict, but I’m going for a Labour gain. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine is another one that almost impossible to predict, but I’m going for a tory gain.

  25. PC – agree with your predictions for Harrow East, Cleethorpes – CON holds and Thurrock – UKIP gain.

    You thought that SNP will do either very very well (c. 28 gains) or only moderately well (+3-5) is also an agreeable assessment.

    Wonder if anyone out there has thoughts on turnout.

    By turnout – just to be clear – I mean :-

    Voter turnout – the percentage of eligible voters (registered to vote) who cast a ballot in an election

    (not be confused with the total amount of voters who cast a ballot overall)

    I am strongly minded to believe it might be +70% with it possibly evenreaching 72-75%.

    Will give my reasons if anyone responds…

  26. The thought about the SNP is very simple. There are only 3 seats – Ochil & South Perthshire, Falkirk and Dundee West where the SNP are within 20% of labour.

    The could get all 3, further gains require an epic Scottish swing 10%+ which if they achieve will be nothing less than a fundamental shakeup of Scottish politics the like of which we haven’t seen since 1945…so take your pick!

    I am inclined to think the SNP will end up with about 13-15 MPs as opposed to 30+ in 4 months’ time.

    I don’t think turnout in the election will be greater than 70%

  27. I agree with Adam on 35 out of 39 of his predicted Labour gains from the Conservatives. We differ on Cleethorpes- which I am pretty confident will not go Labour- and Harrow East and Pudsey, where I give the Conservatives a better than even chance. I also incline towards a UKIP gain in Thurrock.

    I agree with all 10 of his predicted Labour gains from the Liberal Democrats and 10 out of 11 of his predicted Conservative gains. The only difference between us is that I think the Conservatives will gain Torbay instead of North Devon.

    There are two main areas of disagreement. Firstly, I would be pretty surprised if UKIP ended up with only 1 seat. I think they’ll manage 5. Secondly, I think that as things stand, Labour will lose more than 3 seats to the SNP even if I think that talk of massive damage remains premature.

  28. Tory

    I agree with you, though I am more sceptical about the extent of the SNP surge and its effects. Like you I think UKIP will end up with more than one seat.

    I also think that labour will get surprise victories lower down their target list, while tories will hold onto seats which today look like lost causes. I can see the tories holding stockton south and losing stevenage. this is what the latest ashcroft poll has suggested. I think nicky morgan is vulnerable in loughborough, while i can see a tory win in morecambe.

    On balance, i think labour will gain 40 seats off the tories. 10 off the lib dems and lose 5 let’s say to the snp…which puts them about 303 seats wise.

    I think the tories will gain 10 from the lib dems and another 2 or 3 to ukip, so that leaves them down 32 or so on abt. 270 seats. SNP, on my reckoning will gain about 5 from labour and 4 from the lib dems, leaving them with 15 MPs. UKIP on 4 or so etc.

  29. It’s an odd world when D.Alex accuses (by implication) all the above contributors, and me too, of being in a dream world. The guy who never ever looks at opinion polls & prefers his own theories with a bit of added hearsay.
    I don’t think I disagree with any of what Peter Crawford or Tory have said, though I’d be a little surprised (I put it no more strongly than that) to see Morecambe stay Tory. I’ve predicted a Tory hold in Stevenage until the Ashcroft poll, though I’d be wary of setting too much stall on one poll. I agree that Cleethorpes will be a Tory hold. I really can’t see Labour taking it this year. In the future, well that could be different.

  30. Barnaby is one of the best forecasters on this site, so I don’t take much notice of posters who ridicule his predictions.

  31. I’m not convinced Labour will regain Brighton Pavilion.
    However we do seem to be straying somewhat from ‘Conservative Targets’ to ‘Labour Targets’.

  32. Yes I agree with Peter Crawford that Labour will win Stevenage though I think Nicky Morgan will be okay in Loughborough.

    Barnaby, Adam, and Peter Crawford have all made perfectly sensible predictions in my view. There will be differences of opinion here and there particularly where there is considerable uncertainty, such as in Scotland, but none of them are ‘in a dream world’ in my view- quite the opposite.

  33. If Adam has a fatal flaw (and he has many) its the Lib/Lab Coalition…. or any Coalition… speak to a LibDem member lately?

  34. Andy thank you very much for your kind words. On this occasion as it happens no-one directly ridiculed my predictions. My predictions are so similar to those of Tory & Peter Crawford – perhaps if anything the former even more so, though their predictions are pretty similar – that any praise of myself should be given to them too. I don’t claim to have a particularly clear view of Scotland yet. And both Adam & DeepThroat have come up with pretty sensible attempts to predict the 2015 outcome too, though I don’t agree 100% with all of their conclusions.

  35. Iain Dale @IainDale · 29m29 minutes ago

    Do pick up the @IndyOnSunday tomorrow. It will have my final seat by seat election predictions and an article explaining what they mean.

    hmmm… his “final” predictions three months out… “You are a braver man than I, Gunga Din”..

  36. I notice Deepthroat predicted

    CON….279.…..-23
    LAB. ..299…..+44
    LD……..27……..-29
    SNP…..18…….+12
    UKIP……4………+2 (Clacton/ThanetS/BostonS/Thurrock)
    PC………2……….-1
    GRN……1 (hold)
    SPKR….1
    ??……….1. (Watford)
    NI……..18

    About a week ago…not that different from Adam, Tory or Barnaby…

    The range of all of us, I would suggest is Labour 295-305; Con 270-280; SNP 15-20; LD 27-33; UKIP 3-6. something like that…

    The main difference between these ranges and the current betting markets and forecasts, like Fisher, Hanretty et al. is a lower SNP figure. the forecasts nearly all have SNP on 30+, with Labour losing more heavily to them. so as they have the SNP up 15 from our forecasts, they have labour 15 lower on about 280-290.

    The SNP gains from labour are the hinge on which the election turns. I think First Past the Post militates against the SNP making the gains the models currently predict. but time will tell…on the rest of the election, seats outside Scotland, there is quite a lot of consensus about the broad picture although details are different.

  37. Iain Dale’s final prediction wasn’t that different from Deep Throat, (and lots of other commentators here)

    Lab 302 (+44), Con 279 (-28), LD 24 (-33), SNP 18 (+12), UKIP 5 (+5),

    As I say, Tory, Adam, Barnaby and myself don’t think Iain Dale is that far off….the only quibble i have with the broad direcation is that I don’t think the lib dems will sink as low as 24 and I think they will be more tory resistant than dale implies. i would add 6 to the liberals and take 6 from the conservatives. but Dale, though his individual seat predictions may be out here and there, is sensible.

    By contrast, Kellner simply looking at the model thinks the tories will be the largest party, he has:

    Con 293 (-14), Labour 277 (+19), LD 30 (-27), Green 1, SNP 23 (+18)..

    I think Dale makes more sense because he has looked at every seat. the kellner prediction seems to rely on a model which is incorporating a significant degree of swingback.

    interesting debate…

  38. Fascinating stuff…ladbrokes have a page on their predictions looking at aevery seat…

    296 Labour
    273 Conservatives
    31 Lib Dems
    22 SNP
    5 UKIP
    3 PC
    1 Green
    1 Speaker
    18 Northern Ireland

    It’s not that different from Iain Dale..

    PC’s observation on dale seems to follow ladbrokes’ betting quite closely:

    I don’t think the lib dems will sink as low as 24 and I think they will be more tory resistant than dale implies. i would add 6 to the liberals and take 6 from the conservatives.

    Personally, I think 31 for the lib dems makes more sense than 24…I can’t see the tories on much above 275, and i see labour at about 300. I think the SNP figure at 22 is a bit too high and would take 4 from them to put onto the labour score….

    obviously there is uncertainty about the extent of the lib dem collapse, seats wise, and the snp, surge, but dale/ladbrokes and other commentators on this site aren’t that far off each other. Well done to you all , if you’re right.

  39. I think Dale’s overall seat numbers are quite sensible, though I’d perhaps add 10 or so to the Lib Dems, mostly subtracting them from the Tories.

    Some of his individual predictions are utterly bonkers though. It’s just that the bonkersness on all sides pretty much cancels out and arrives at an OK overall prediction.

    What I truly can’t believe is how the national and local media have been giving his predictions acres of publicity. I happened upon some obscure local newspaper in Gloucestershire the other day and the headline was “Labour to regain Stroud & Gloucester at general election”, based purely on the say so of Iain Dale.

  40. I agree, there are some strange ones by him like the Conservatives to gain Carshalton and Wallington because there is bound to be a Labour surge in vote. Hasn’t he seen the local elections here which have proved that there is no Labour recovery in this seat at all and they will probably finish 4th behind UKIP.

    It will be a UKIP surge here splitting the right leaning vote and helping the Lib Dems Hold the seat.

  41. It’s exciting solid prediction and they need to fill space, particularly local media. I’ve had to report surveys (student issues and market research) that were badly done or offered conclusions rather different to the hyperbolic reception they received. I always try to write them up in the most fair way possible, pointing out methodological or sampling errors, or leading questions – not every journalist is so careful or so scrupulous.

  42. You’re a journalist?

  43. I’m games editor for the student paper and write for a couple of websites, I wouldn’t be so grandiose. But a lot of market research goes on in that industry, and existing outlets are appalling at reporting it.

  44. If I had to choose between Iain Dale’s and Peter Kellner’s forecasting abilities, I’d usually go for Peter Kellner. He had the Tories on 293 and the LDs on 30.

  45. I’m totally with the consensus on this one

    Overall Dale’s figures look fairly plausible – but individually his predictions show a complete lack of basic knowledge. Has he not seen the polling in eastleigh or eastbourne or does he just think that he knows better

    It is indeed odd that he is so revered in Right-Wing circles

  46. he is not especially revered. he is well known which isn’t the same thing. He has also had the balls to call the election, seat by seat, which I think is to be commended, and dale has certainly stimulated debate and thought about the election.

    so all credit to him…

    his most bonkers calls are some lab-con marginals and some con-ld ones….

    I disagree with andy js and peter kellner and agree broadly with deepthroat, iain dale, the ladbrokes betting odds, peter crawford, tory and adam.

    This is basically what the election boils down to.

  47. Still fascinating that few Labour losses are being predicted outside Scotland.

    The only seats variously suggested appear to be Southampton Itchen, Hampstead & Kilburn, Great Grimsby and Haywood & Middleton.

    So does this mean the widespread belief amongst psephologists is that in England and Wales, 2010 is as bad as it’s going to get for Labour for the time being?

  48. All 5 of the numbered predictions above are in line with my thoughts. However, BBC Newsnight had a hypothetical tonight that had the Tories as the largest Party. The rest was the same. Although they presumably meant a NET loss of 13 Tory MPs, as they had the LDs down to just 22 MPs behind the 25 SNP.

  49. I think Kellner’s prediction is a NET loss of 13 for the Tories on 2010, so he has them on 293 seats…this seems optimistic, but it could happen. labour have been falling consistently over the last few months. they must be tearing their hair out.

    I used to think the tories would never win a majority under First Past the Post. I am beginning to think Labour will not.

  50. ‘I used to think the tories would never win a majority under First Past the Post. I am beginning to think Labour will not.’

    And that’s despite the fact the electoral system is massively weighted in their favour

    This really is an indictment of Labour’s complete failure to make the most of the governing parties continuing problems and if they don’t form the next government – which looks increasingly likely, the new non-Labour government will surely look to remove the electoral bias in Labour’s favour.

    Then their chances of winning a majority under under FPTP really could be done for good – as it is with the Tories now

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