Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 631 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. “I think another election very soon must be on CCHQ agenda. I think Boris might be the talisman for Conservatives.”

    It would be a risky strategy indeed, but perhaps there are few other options. I also can’t see the DUP being a workable coalition partner.

    “I changed my moniker here after an unpleasant and upsetting experience on ukpr about 6 months ago.”

    Sorry to hear that & glad to see you back.

  2. If they do go for it or cannot continue, they’ll probably want Aug/v. early Sept. A lot of students will not be back at term time address! Undemocratic but the – once again, nasty – Tories might do it.

  3. ” I am predicting that the Conservatives will make 41 gains:

    – From Labour (31): City of Chester; Halifax; Ilford North; Newcastle-under-Lyme; Barrow and Furness; Wolverhampton South West; North East Derbyshire; Harrow West; Bridgend; Middlesborough South and East Cleveland; Walsall North; Wrexham; Birmingham, Northfield; Wakefield; Birmingham, Edgbaston; Copeland; Stoke-on-Trent South; Clwyd South; Coventry South; Darlington; Blackpool South; Scunthorpe; Southampton, Test; Hyndburn; Bury South; Dudley North; Mansfield; Workington; Stoke-on-Trent North; Great Grimsby; Ashfield

    – From SNP (7): Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfries and Galloway; Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine; East Renfrewshire; Moray; Ochil and South Perthshire; Perth and North Perthshire

    – From the LDs (2): Southport; North Norfolk

    – From UKIP (1): Clacton

    I am predicting that Labour will make 10 gains:

    – From Conservative (4): Plymouth Sutton and Devonport; Brighton, Kemptown; Cardiff North; Battersea

    – From SNP (4): East Lothian; Paisley and Renfrewshire South; Rutherglen and Hamilton West; Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

    – From LD (1): Leeds North West

    – From PC (1): Arfon

    I am predicting that the Lib Dems will make 7 gains:

    – From Conservative (3): Twickenham; Bath; Richmond Park

    – From SNP (4): East Dunbartonshire; Edinburgh West; North East Fife; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

    I am predicting that the DUP will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): South Antrim

    I am predicting that Sinn Fein will make 1 gain:

    – From UUP (1): Fermanagh and South Tyrone

    I am predicting that Alliance will make 2 gains:

    – From DUP (1): East Belfast

    – From SDLP (1): South Belfast

    All this adds up to, if I am not mistaken, the following totals:

    CON 364 (+34)
    LAB 211 (-21)
    SNP 41 (-15)
    LD 12 (+4)
    DUP 8 (-)
    SF 5 (+1)
    PC 2 (-1)
    SDLP 2 (-1)
    Alliance 2 (+2)
    GRN 1 (-)
    Ind 1 (-)
    Speaker 1 (-)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    UUP 0 (-2) ”

    Looking back at my prediction from a week ago I obviously, like most people, got the result very wrong. But, with a few exceptions, I did okay in predicting where there would be bigger and smaller swings, and did particularly well on the LDs. My worst calls were Harrow West, where until Thursday the Cons had had a run of good results in various types of elections, and Southampton Test, where my prediction was based partly on a conversation with a very experienced campaigner in the area who had canvassed there (admittedly this conversation was very soon after the election was called, pre-manifesto). In both places Lab ultimately massively increased their majority rather than losing.

  4. I predicted NO OVERALL MAJORITY and thought that they would hold onto their Londonseats but I certainly disagreed with your BATTERSEA call. I also thought Labour would do better in Yorkshire and the NW AND NE.

    Do you think election polling needs a huge shake up? Survation and yougov to a lesser extent excepted they all screwed up.

  5. I think that after the amazing success this time in future we will see a lot more models of the type YouGov ran. I still can’t believe they managed to pick up the results in Canterbury and in Kensington. It isn’t entriely inconceivable that this type of thing might even displace conventional polling.

  6. Polling as we know it is broken. Jack’s probably right.

  7. Yes. And yougov calls on battersea and Canterbury near to crystal ball predictions.

  8. Kensington not Battersea.

  9. Yougov poll issued 10pm

    MAY should resign:
    Yes 48%
    No 38%

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