Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 177 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. Yes, DD.

    e.g: The Mail printed a comprehensive list of 50 seats where ukip and lib dem supporters could help to defeat labour (by voting tactical for Con ).

  2. The Mail was by far the most influential newspaper during the campaign. The Sun must be spitting hairs.

    I don’t see The Express as a factor frankly.

  3. The Express was promoting UKIP very strongly.

  4. Interesting to see how many of these seats are in Wales and the North

  5. @Max Parr-Reid

    Presumably because there are hardly any seats left for CON to target outside of those regions because they hold nearly all of them :)

  6. If we have 5 years of steady economic growth and Labour struggles with its new choice of leader then I believe that the top 25 targets are winnable for the Tories next time around.

  7. If. Five years out is a bit soon to be predicting like that!

  8. It’s amazing to see Leeds North East so far down the list given that it was so reliably Conservative before the 1980s.

  9. Their vote share has held up pretty well since 1997 though (in Leeds NE). They probably won’t ever win the seat if the boundaries remain fairly similar but the presence of Alwoodley will keep them above 30% in GE’s.

  10. I’d never say never but certainly the presence of Chapeltown in the seat makes life tougher. For all his faults Fabien Hamilton is a shrewd campaigner and is well-liked by sectors of the population as well so it will be tough while he is the MP. The increased Asian population of Roundhay and Moortown means the Tories need to carry on improving their appeal to non-white Britain in order to have a realistic chance.

  11. The latest opinion polls seem to suggest approximately a 3% swing from Labour to Conservatives, which on a unifor swing would mean that Labour would lose a further twent-three seats. The “swing” seat would at present appear to be Birmingham Northfield.

  12. Does anyone know if the next boundary changes will be based on those recommended in the most recent review of the last parliament (they were revised twice last parliament) or would they be revised yet again this parliament?

  13. One wonders if or when Halifax will go Tory again. The Tories have had so many near-misses there over the decades.

  14. TORY

    I think it’s a possibility. In 2010 the majority was cut by 2/3 and the majority was again cut by 2/3 in 2015. Depending on boundary reviews, this could definitely be a Tory gain in the future.

  15. I was talking to the author of research paper concerning the financial crises from a perspective of Karl Polayni. He concluded that not only would another credit crunch follow a decade after the last but he saw China crashing in the next two years if not sooner and the eurozone crash before the parliament is out. Steady economic growth doesn’t look to be on the agenda for the next five years.

  16. In answer to Christian, current law requires a review of constituency boundaries every five years. Given the rules as they are now, each review is likely to involve more change than previous reviews when the boundary commissions had more discretion about the number and electorate size of constituencies..

    The four national boundary commissions will agree how many seats each country gets, according to the formula in the legislation. This will be done in Spring next year. The proposed new boundaries, for a 600 seat House, are supposed to be submitted to ministers by early Autumn 2018. If approved by Parliament the new boundaries will be used for the 2020 general election.

    There will be a completely new review in 2016-18. The draft proposals, in the review that Parliament cancelled during the last Parliament, will be irrelevant.

  17. Especially with quite a few large councils having had boundary changes for their wards, and with some significant ones coming up over the next few years (Bristol and Birmingham).

  18. “There will be a completely new review in 2016-18. The draft proposals, in the review that Parliament cancelled during the last Parliament, will be irrelevant.”

    This is true, but where the entitlement has not changed the Boundary Commission is likely to start from the constituencies it recommended last time, which were consulted on. The 5% tolerance will require changes in some cases where wards have grown or reduced in size, but this only affects urban areas where the wards are large, and constructing any pattern of seats is difficult.

    Unfortunately the changes in Birmingham will come too late. The recommendations for the West Midlands were horrible, ludicrous, bizarre, whatever word you like, last time. The parliamentary select committee made a recommendation that the Boundary Commission be more open to splitting wards where this led to a more satisfactory pattern of seats, and they did seem to at least not object to this. It is essential in the West Midlands, where Birmingham wards reach over 18,000 in electors. Not to speak of avoiding the Forest of Dean mess they got into last time.

  19. The Forest of Dean is going to be a mess unless you cross the Welsh border.

  20. As the four national boundary commissions draw boundaries for the number of seats allocated to their nation, independently of each other, there is no chance of a cross border constituency being created.

    I suppose there might be a case for a single UK boundary commission instructed to ignore national borders when convenient, but it would go against the whole history of the electoral arrangements for the House of Commons.

  21. The size of the Birmingham wards has always amazed me – I can’t understand the logic behind it.

  22. It’s down to the size of the city. There’s already over 100 councillors so splitting the wards would yield even more, unless they became single or dual member wards instead of triple members.

    The only other option would be to have Birmingham run by two different councils (possibly a Birmingham West and Birmingham East and Solihull arrangement?) but I doubt that would be popular.

  23. surely if Birmingham was to split a north/south divide would make more sense? Erdington, Handsworth and Sutton Coldfield all used to be separate towns and could maybe be spun off into a northern borough with the city council in the south

    Can’t see anything like that being popular or particularly desirable though

  24. The most obvious solution would be single-member wards which would surely save money as well only needing one all-out election every four years instead of three

  25. You all need to keep up to speed. The local boundary commission has been instructed by the government to redraw Birmingham wards into 100 single member wards, which will have around 7500 electors each. Also to change Birmingham to all out elections every 4 years, which is now legal. This is currently under way, and the deadline for initial submissions has closed.

    It goes without saying that this imposition by central government is not wholly popular in Birmingham.

    There is zero demand for splitting Birmingham, as is often suggested by outsiders, except for some people in Sutton Coldfield. In fact there is more of a case for extending Birmingham boundaries, as some places that are geographically and socially part of the city are currently included in Solihull, Sandwell, and Walsall.

  26. didn’t know that actually. All-out elections make far more sense

  27. Thanks for answering my question Gary J.

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