Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Majority 328 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
8. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
9. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
10. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
11. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
12. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
13. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
14. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
15. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
18. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
19. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
20. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
21. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
22. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
23. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Clacton Majority 3437 (7.7%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
47. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
48. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
49. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
52. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
53. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
54. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
55. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)
56. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
57. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
58. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
59. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 7033 (12.8%)
60. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
61. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
62. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
63. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
64. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
65. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
66. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
67. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
68. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
69. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
70. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
71. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
72. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)*
73. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
74. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
75. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
Comments - 300 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. Nothing for anybody to get very excited about in these council results. The lack of councils changing hands is partly due to it being mathematically impossible in many, as discussed above, but also LAB held on rather better than might have been expected in some areas – though not remotely well enough to suggest they are on course to win in 2020.

  2. TORY LEADERSHIP

    * Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices
    * then a postal ballot of the wider membership of the pary

    Both names go forward for the members of the party to decide between. In the event that three or more MPs are nominated for leader, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held “on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations”. The ballot is held under the first past the post system.

    If MPs are choosing between four or more candidates, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and further ballots are held on subsequent Thursdays and Tuesdays until only two MPs remain.

    The wider membership of the Conservative party then chooses between these two MPs, with the vote being held via a postal ballot. The returning officer chooses the date by which ballots have to be returned and the count begins at noon that day. The result is announced at a meeting of the parliamentary party and “representative members”.

  3. Bookies :

    MAY 4/5
    GOVE 7/2
    BJ….4/1

  4. I think BORIS will definitely stand. I think he will go on to win.

  5. Assuming these constituencies still exist at the 2020 election (which is a big assumption, but let’s go with it), the Conservatives should be in store for between 30 and 60 gains overall. I can’t see their popularity dropping to the levels where they gain less than this, especially seeing that public opinion generally seems to support Theresa May’s Brexit stance as yet.

    The list of targets on this page, though, is probably not much use now. Some targets that seem likely Tory gains on paper (e.g. Hove, Ealing Central, Harrow West) may well be harder to win in reality because of the strong Remain vote in the areas and the fact that there isn’t much UKIP support to squeeze. Targets further down the numerical list, such as Blackpool South and Alyn and Deeside, may well be likelier Conservative prospects.

    I would say that we can split the realistic Conservative targets for next election into four major categories:

    STRONG FAVOURITES TO WIN– even if the Tories aren’t doing quite as well in the polls as they are today, they should still be confident of gaining most or all of these seats, barring a major disaster.
    Labour seats: Barrow and Furness; Blackpool South; Clwyd South; Dewsbury; Halifax; Ilford North; Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland; Newcastle-under-Lyme; North East Derbyshire; Scunthorpe; Stoke-on-Trent South; Wakefield; Walsall North; Wolverhampton South West; Wrexham
    SNP seats: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

    SLIGHT FAVOURITES TO WIN – the seats in this category probably lean towards the Conservatives. If their poll ratings hold up, they should win most of these.
    Labour seats: Alyn and Deeside; Birmingham Northfield; Bishop Auckland; Brentford and Isleworth; Chorley; City of Chester; Coventry North West; Darlington; Delyn; Dudley North; Eltham; Enfield North; Great Grimsby; Hyndburn; Lancaster and Fleetwood; Wirral West
    SNP seats: Dumfries and Galloway

    TOSS-UPS – these are likely to be some of the closest marginals next election, and will decide how big the Conservative majority will be. The parties will probably invest a lot of resources into campaigning in these areas.
    Labour seats: Batley and Spen; Birmingham Edgbaston; Bristol East; Bolton North East; Bury South; Coventry South; Ealing Central and Acton; Harrow West; Hove; Luton South; Mansfield; Newport East; Newport West; Oldham East and Saddleworth; Penistone and Stocksbridge; Southampton Test; Workington
    SNP seats: Aberdeen South; East Renfrewshire; West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    Lib Dem seats: Carshalton and Wallington; Southport

    OUTSIDE CHANCE TO WIN – the Conservatives are probably not winning here, but if they are polling very well by next election a few of these may come into play
    Labour seats: Birmingham Erdington; Edinburgh South; Exeter; Hampstead and Kilburn; Nottingham South; Tooting; Tynemouth; Walsall South; West Lancashire; Westminster North; Wirral South; Wolverhampton North East; Ynys Mon
    SNP seats: Angus; Edinburgh South West; Moray; Perth and North Perthshire; Stirling
    Lib Dem seat: North Norfolk
    Plaid Cymru seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

    This probably gives an accurate picture of the battleground for the Tories next election, again assuming the boundary review has not been passed. Of course, the Conservatives may also have to invest money in defending some vulnerable seats where the Lib Dems are in a strong second, particularly if they also voted Remain and might be suffering a Brexit backlash. Probable LD targets would include Bath, Cheadle, Eastbourne, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Oxford West and Abingdon, Portsmouth South, St Ives, Twickenham, and possibly Brecon and Radnorshire, Colchester, Yeovil and Chippenham.

  6. Well here we go again…. and given the state of the polls, this page seems as good a place as any to start.

    I really do fear for the future of the Labour incumbents vulnerable to a swing of 5-6%. With much of the press forensically dissecting Mr Corbyn, the June election threatens to be a re run of 1983, with Labour actually going backwards up to election day. Excluding Scotland, Labour won just 168 seats then. The end result this time could well be in similar territory.

  7. Yep. Labour on 165 imo

  8. After her categorical denials i have to say i have found some respect for May for treating the elecorate with the contempt they arguably deserve

  9. Labour will end up with 160-175 seats imo, this target list isn’t long enough

  10. I think Labour will win 200 seats with the Conservatives winning about 360 seats. That would give May a majority of about 70. Enough to get key votes through parliament without it going to her head like it did Thatcher.

  11. If it’s CORBYN / MCDONNELL and no pre election agreement, my guess is that Lab 160 – 170 seats.

    Would anyone of you think a pre election LAB/LIB DEM/GREEN a possibility?

  12. I’m still thinking 185 well I tried floating the idea today very subtly and it went down badly

  13. Not in the Lib Dems interest. The Lib Dems have carved themselves a space as the pro-EU voice, even if it only brings modest gains, it again brings them a dimension other than being the old junior coalition partners.

    Not a bad recovery after two years, what they can’t do is walk into a label of being Corbyn’s friend.

  14. What a day!

    I think AKMD has got it about right. I think Labour will hemorrhage seats to the Conservatives in small town England- constituencies like Halifax, Wakefield, East Cleveland and Darlington but that some losses to the LDs in posh Remainia will keep the Conservatives below the Thatcher high watermarks.

  15. Here is a rough target list for Scotland based on current polling and the results of the 2016 Holyrood election, with my own early guesses in brackets:

    1. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale [C HOLD]
    2. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk [C GAIN]
    3. Dumfries and Galloway [C GAIN]
    4. West Aberdeeenshire and Kincardine [C GAIN]
    5. Aberdeen South [C GAIN]
    6. East Renfrewshire [C GAIN]
    7. Edinburgh South West [C GAIN]
    8. Moray [S HOLD]
    9. Gordon [S HOLD]
    10. Perth and North Perthshire [S HOLD]
    11. Stirling [S HOLD]
    12. Ochil and South Perthshire [S HOLD]
    13. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock [S HOLD]

    I do believe that Moray and Gordon are winnable in the coming election, if the Conservatives have a strong campaign in Scotland.

  16. NTY I think there’s a good chance of gaining 2 and 3 but beyond that it depends on the tone May ops for during the campaign. If she alienates Lab and LD voters too much then the two southern seats may be all thats gained.

  17. I think Labour will be down to less then 200 seats-at the very worst case scenario for them, 150-odd.

  18. Here’s my London Predictions

    Not predicting many gains from the Conservatives in London

    I think Hampstead and Kilburn, Tooting and Westminster North are less marginal than they look on paper.

    Anyway be prepared to agree or completley rip these predictions to shreds.

    Barking LAB HOLD
    Battersea CON HOLD
    Beckenham CON HOLD
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB
    Bethnal Green & Bow LAB HOLD
    Bexleyheath & Crayford CON HOLD
    Brent Central LAB HOLD
    Brent North LAB HOLD
    Brentford & Isleworth CON GAIN FROM LAB
    Bromley & Chislehurst CON HOLD
    Camberwell & Peckham LAB HOLD
    Carshalton & Wallington CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM
    Chelsea & Fulham CON HOLD
    Chingford & Woodford Green CON HOLD
    Chipping Barnet CON HOLD
    Cities of London & Westminster CON HOLD
    Croydon Central CON HOLD
    Croydon North LAB HOLD
    Croydon South CON HOLD
    Dagenham & Rainham LAB HOLD
    Dulwich & West Norwood LAB HOLD
    Ealing Central & Acton LAB HOLD
    Ealing North LAB HOLD
    Ealing, Southall LAB HOLD
    East Ham LAB HOLD
    Edmonton LAB HOLD
    Eltham CON GAIN FROM LAB
    Enfield North LAB HOLD
    Enfield, Southgate LAB HOLD
    Erith & Thamesmead LAB HOLD
    Feltham & Heston LAB HOLD
    Finchley & Golders Green CON HOLD
    Greenwich & Woolwich LAB HOLD
    Hackney North & Stoke Newington LAB HOLD
    Hackney South & Shoreditch LAB HOLD
    Hammersmith LAB HOLD
    Hampstead & Kilburn LAB HOLD
    Harrow East CON HOLD
    Harrow West LAB HOLD
    Hayes & Harlington LAB HOLD
    Hendon CON HOLD
    Holborn & St Pancras LAB HOLD
    Hornchurch & Upminster CON HOLD
    Hornsey & Wood Green LAB HOLD
    Ilford North LAB HOLD
    Ilford South LAB HOLD
    Islington North LAB HOLD
    Islington South & Finsbury LAB HOLD
    Kensington CON HOLD
    Kingston & Surbiton LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
    Lewisham East LAB HOLD
    Lewisham West & Penge LAB HOLD
    Lewisham, Deptford LAB HOLD
    Leyton & Wanstead LAB HOLD
    Mitcham & Morden LAB HOLD
    Old Bexley & Sidcup CON HOLD
    Orpington CON HOLD
    Poplar & Limehouse LAB HOLD
    Putney CON HOLD
    Richmond Park CON HOLD (RE-GAIN FROM LIB DEM)
    Romford CON HOLD
    Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner CON HOLD
    Streatham LAB HOLD
    Sutton & Cheam CON HOLD
    Tooting LAB HOLD
    Tottenham LAB HOLD
    Twickenham LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
    Uxbridge & Ruislip South CON HOLD
    Vauxhall LAB HOLD
    Walthamstow LAB HOLD
    West Ham LAB HOLD
    Westminster North LAB HOLD
    Wimbledon CON HOLD

  19. Labour don’t hold Southgate (yet).
    Not sure about Eltham.

  20. “Labour don’t hold Southgate (yet).”

    Typo should be CON HOLD

    “Not sure about Eltham”

    I based that on the area’s brexit stance ditto Carshalton, however Efford has popular vote and the seat isn’t just Eltham itself.

  21. Thanks SURREY POLITICS….interesting but it is too optimistic towards Labour:

    HARROW W CON GAIN
    HAMPSTEAD CON GAIN
    RICHMOND LIB DEM GAIN
    VAUXHALL CON GAIN (if Hoey stands)
    WESTMINSTER N CON GAIN

    and the glaring one IMO is
    ENFIELD NORTH CON GAIN

  22. I woule be amazed if the Tories won Vauxhall although Hampstead, Harrow West, and Eltham seem like plausible pick ups

    There’s about six other london seats which I would add to that list although the impact of Brexit might keep them out of Tory hands

  23. The problem for the Conservatives in Hampstead is the Kilburnians will always vote red.

    If Tullip re-stands she is a staunch remain Labour MP that’s why I think it be will narrowly held.

    I think Carshalton and Wallington will be the most likley Conservative gain in London IMO, though Brake has been locally popular in the past. It’s a heavily vote leave area and more a South London Havering than a traditional Liberal area. I think his vote against triggering Article 50 may have harmed his vote in the WWC St Helier parts of the seat which are very different demographically to the largely BAME demographics of the Morden half of the estate. Three words that could save him here however are “ST HELIER HOSPITAL”

  24. Thanks Surrey very detailed

  25. I think Brake holds on just. He is so embedded there. His fifth time standing? Lab will hold Hampstead just barely. Can’t see Labour losing Bermondsey Hughes or no Hughes. Good call on Kingston and Twickers.

  26. London in general seems harder to judge for several reasons.

    – Demographic change in London tends to be pretty rapid.
    – Difficult to assess Theresa May’s appeal as compared to the more metropolitan David Cameron.
    – Brexit will have increased salience here, making the Lib Dems somewhat of an unknown factor (and in particular whether they take more votes from Labour or Conservative).

  27. There’s a good chance of Lib Dems retaking Twickenham and Kingston upon Thames.

    Sutton and Cheam I feel is possibly reverting back to being a safe Conservative seat again.

  28. The national opinion polls makes me less bullish than Surrey Politics about their prospects. Labour has outperformed in London in both the last 2 elections and doing so a third time in a row is a big ask.

    I think it unlikely that they will be able to hold their 4 gains from last time (Enfield North, Ealing Central/Acton, Brentford/ Isleworth and Ilford North) unless their national deficit significantly improves. The drift of those seats towards Labour and the probable “new incumbent bonus” may assist but probably not enough to compensate for any national swing exceeding 3-4%.

    The highly politically polarised quartet of Hampstead/Kilburn, Westminster North, Hammersmith and Tooting may well see small swings but none are safe (in Hampstead in particular Tulip Saddiq cannot afford to lose any of the tactical votes she garnered last outing).

    I agree that Eltham looks vulnerable. Clive Efford has done remarkably well to hold the seat since 97 but the low BAME electorate (for London) and the slight Leave majority suggests he has his work cut out.

    Harrow West is also an outlier. In prevailing circumstances a 5% majority, regardless of the large Asian vote in the seat, does not seem safe.

    I think however that the idea that Labour will lose Vauxhall is strictly for the birds. This is not a vote of confidence for Ms Hoey – who I would happily see defeated – but, even given a long history of Liberal/Lib Dem activism in parts of the seat, Labour’s vote has always been above 45% every election since the present seat was created in 1983. It is safe.

  29. Ok. Forgive me for this idiocy.
    Corbyns unpopular and Labour are definitely in for a loss. Nobodys arguing that. But it seems to me that it feels like some of the commentators on this site are really overconfident of a huge Tory landslide. The polls are rubbish for Labour and there’s no way they keep more than 200 seats. But it isn’t like the Tories are all that great. They’re really not that popular, nor do people love them like they did Blair in ’97 and ’01.
    May has lied repeatedly and blatantly. There’s this declaration of expenses scandal which is perhaps the reason for the general election. There’s the Tories awful record on the NHS and the likes of Boris Johnson, Gove and Hunt. All of whom are despised in many areas of the country. So in some seats, particularly the more politically astute areas, isn’t it possible Labour defend a handful of seats the national polls indicate they wouldn’t?

    Or is that just me being a thicko?

  30. No you’re not being thick. This election is immensely complicated and is the opposite of binary whatever that is. And unlike elections in the past – pre 2015 – “uniform swing” is a phrase you’re not going to hear much at all.

  31. Quint- no you’re not being thick. I think Labour will hold some seats which figure prominently on the Conservatives’ target list, like Hampstead & Kilburn. However, the fact is that if there is a reasonably meaningful Labour to Conservative swing, Labour is still going suffer pretty significant losses and the Conservatives are going to win a comfortable majority.

  32. I think Quint is right. The Tories aren’t loved and I think some of the ramping has been ridiculous (PT I’m thinking of you). The Tories will probably win and might well increase their majority a bit, but not much. I think a majority of 30 is most likely.

  33. Remember, if the swing is below the national average in some parts of the country, it must necessarily be above the national average elsewhere. This means that marginal seats that withstand the tide in low-swing areas will probably be negated by safe-on-paper seats elsewhere that fall to high swings.

    This is the point of UNS. It has never been an accurate predictor of individual seats. But it has, historically, been a good predictor of parties’ seat totals, because of the effect mentioned above.

  34. One bookmaker has opened up a market on turnout.

    63% is their line.

    It feels like lower than last time – 66.4% I would say 61.5%

  35. I’m going higher than last time. Just as turnout was higher in Scotland in 2015 following indyref, I think it will also be higher in England and Wales this time following EU ref. Maybe low 70s.

  36. JS – That’s some prediction!!

    The last walkover we had was 2001 when turnout dropped to <60%.Throw in voter fatigue and also Labour supporters abstaining and I would be surprised to see more than GE2015. B

  37. It’ll be interesting to see intention to vote figures in polls. This was very high – and a good pointer that turnout was going to be plus 80% in the indyref.

    JS are you expecting non voters to vote in significant numbers?

    Btw…Had another look at bookies website and since last night price on under 63% has shortened from 5/6 to 8/11.

  38. My thesis would be that the low turnout in 2001 was associated with a/ the lack of competitive constituency contests and b/ the lack of major policy issues that the public were motivated enough to vote on seriously on the agenda. Thus it was the fact it was a status quo election rather than its one-sidedness that resulted in low turnout. Change elections that deliver landslides (1997, Scotland 2015) have not had especially low turnouts.

    In addition I would say that there are some signs of increased young voter engagement in recent years after the nadir of the 2000s, probably associated with the re-emergence of big identity questions (Brexit, Scottish independence etc.) as the key dividing lines in British politics.

  39. Quint,

    In response to your posting, I am sure there will be the odd seat here and there which manages to buck the trend (there always is : for example Crewe and Nantwich in 1983 withstood the landslide of that year).

    I think the point is that the opinion polls listed on this site show during the last month – with the exception of one outlier – a consistent Conservative lead of 16% and upwards over Labour. Effectively a 5% swing from 2 years ago. This is clearly heading towards landslide territory. Should Labour has a stonking campaign this will change but the possible precedent is again with 83 when Labour actually went backwards during the campaign. So currently I think some of the predictions that the Conservatives will reach deep into Labours heartlands seem to have some substance. They might as you suggest not be popular – but they only need to be more popular than the principle opposition to win big,

  40. The only ones I don’t see the Tories taking from the top 40 on the above list are nos 11, 13, 19, 22 and 24.

    I think all of 41-64 that voted Leave (which is most of them) are likely to fall to them too, as things stand currently. Below this the viable list thins out quite rapidly I think, though no strongly Leave voting (i.e. 60%+) seats with a Lab / Lib majority of up to 25% can be considered safe IMHO.

  41. Labour have lost a council seat in Harrow East constituency.

    This is a big shock as they had a notional 500-600 lead over the Tories. Reported fairly good turnout of 37%.

  42. Kenton East (Harrow) result:
    CON: 52.3% (+15.3)
    LAB: 43.8% (-4.1)
    LDEM: 2.1% (+2.1)
    IND: 1.8% (+1.8)

    A shocking LD %. Is the electorate becoming more polarised?

  43. What about Stoke on Trent Central as an unlikely Tory gain, making a clean sweep in the 4 Potteries seats?

  44. “VAUXHALL CON GAIN (if Hoey stands)”

    ROFL!!! There have been some corkers on this site over the years but that perhaps just takes the cake. I’m not even saying Lab will hold it but in what universe will May’s Tories win one of the most (if not the most) pro Remain seat in the country? In the very unlikely event Lab lose Vauxhall it will be to the Lib Dems if they manage to make Brexit the main issue and even then that’s a stretch, Stockwell and the parts of Brixton in the seat will always go red and certainly are about as likely to go blue as I am!

  45. Thanks for the feedback! One bookmaker is offering 5/1 on Tories. .so a 16% chance. Not as unlikely as you might imagine.
    Lab are 60% probability and Lib dems are 40% with the same bookies

  46. Put a bundle on Hoey then – her vote might weaken a bit but there is far too much of a cushion for her to lose.

    I’ve seen worse though, I’ve read multiple suggestions that the likes of John Redwood and Jeremy Hunt are “vulnerable”.

  47. Some of the underlying figures from recent polls are starting to make me think Lab really are headed for an absolute disaster scenario. Yesterday’s ICM cross-break showing a Con lead of 17 in Lab held marginals with a less than 15% majority suggests the sort of dynamics that were in play in Scotland in 2015 – ie support haemorraging most among their previously most loyal voters – are at play. It was also striking that in that ICM Lab only led by 11 in safe Lab seats – sheen you consider that figure will include inner London, Liverpool etc. it suggests some of those are at risk too.

  48. What happens if the police investigation into the MPs election expenses scandal leads to an arrest of an MP up for reelection?

  49. I think JSs fears for LAB are well founded – on current evidence and polling – and Labour to win less than 100 seats a real possibility. Thus is assuming Corbyn / McDonnell stay in charge. If someone like Starmer took over they will likely get much more. I personally wish it were not so but the polls are likely to be fairly accurate and a lot of recent council by elections go a long way to bearing them out. – see above..Kenton East by election where Labour lost a (notional) 600-700 lead.

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