Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Conservative party won 306 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another twenty seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 42 (0.1%)
2. Bolton West Majority 92 (0.2%)
3. Solihull Majority 175 (0.3%)
4. Southampton, Itchen Majority 192 (0.4%)
5. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 269 (0.6%)
6. Wirral South Majority 531 (1.3%)
7. Derby North Majority 613 (1.4%)
8. Wells Majority 800 (1.4%)
9. Dudley North Majority 649 (1.7%)
10. Great Grimsby Majority 714 (2.2%)
11. Morley & Outwood Majority 1101 (2.3%)
12. Telford Majority 978 (2.4%)
13. Walsall North Majority 990 (2.7%)
14. St Austell & Newquay Majority 1312 (2.8%)
15. Somerton & Frome Majority 1817 (3%)
16. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 1274 (3.1%)
17. Sutton & Cheam Majority 1608 (3.3%)
18. Halifax Majority 1472 (3.4%)
19. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 1552 (3.6%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 1677 (3.6%)
21. Wakefield Majority 1613 (3.6%)
22. St Ives Majority 1719 (3.7%)
23. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1588 (3.8%)
24. Gedling Majority 1859 (3.9%)
25. Eltham Majority 1663 (4%)
26. Walsall South Majority 1755 (4.3%)
27. Nottingham South Majority 1772 (4.3%)
28. Chippenham Majority 2470 (4.7%)
29. Tooting Majority 2524 (5%)
30. Chorley Majority 2593 (5.2%)
31. North East Derbyshire Majority 2445 (5.2%)
32. Exeter Majority 2721 (5.2%)
33. Blackpool South Majority 1852 (5.3%)
34. Westminster North Majority 2126 (5.4%)
35. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 103 (5.4%)
36. Southampton, Test Majority 2413 (5.5%)
37. Luton South Majority 2329 (5.5%)
38. Bridgend Majority 2263 (5.9%)
39. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 2630 (5.9%)
40. Delyn Majority 2272 (6.1%)
41. Cheadle Majority 3272 (6.2%)
42. North Cornwall Majority 2981 (6.4%)
43. Gower Majority 2683 (6.4%)
44. Norwich South Majority 310 (6.4%)
45. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 3049 (6.6%)
46. Eastbourne Majority 3435 (6.6%)
47. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2782 (6.7%)
48. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 2744 (6.7%)
49. Bury South Majority 3292 (6.8%)
50. Harrow West Majority 3143 (6.8%)
51. Bradford East Majority 365 (6.9%)
52. Taunton Deane Majority 3993 (6.9%)
53. Scunthorpe Majority 2549 (6.9%)
54. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 2690 (7%)
55. Vale of Clwyd Majority 2509 (7.1%)
56. Wolverhampton North East Majority 2484 (7.1%)
57. Eastleigh Majority 3864 (7.2%)
58. Hyndburn Majority 3090 (7.2%)
59. Alyn & Deeside Majority 2919 (7.3%)
60. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 3482 (7.5%)
61. Hammersmith Majority 3549 (7.5%)
62. Argyll & Bute Majority 3431 (7.6%)
63. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 1252 (7.6%)
64. Darlington Majority 3388 (7.9%)
65. Sefton Central Majority 3862 (8%)
66. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 3684 (8.2%)
67. Clwyd South Majority 2834 (8.2%)
68. Bristol East Majority 3722 (8.3%)
69. Don Valley Majority 3595 (8.3%)
70. Torbay Majority 4078 (8.3%)
71. Coventry South Majority 3845 (8.4%)
72. Batley & Spen Majority 4406 (8.6%)
73. Angus Majority 3282 (8.6%)
74. Newport West Majority 3544 (8.9%)
75. Copeland Majority 3833 (9%)
Comments - 76 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. though i think labour will limp home, c. 295 -300 seats, there is a potential for them to sink even lower.

    the labour inability to inspire the anti-coaltion vote is extraordinary. I think 2015 was a sitter of an election to win. I think if the lib dem/con coalition continues, UKIP and the Greens could well constitute a more articulate opposition to that 2015-2020 government than labour….things very uncertain.

    labour, i hate to say to it, are performing very badly.

  2. Agree with that last comment from PC.

    just want to my prediction of seats above is based on this ‘system’ I have whereby I have collated information/opiions from 4 different sources. So it’s not my opinion really – I actually think as PC hints at, a LAB decline and a small ‘swingback’ to CON (plus a little incumbency values,) resulting in approx equal seats or slightly more CON seats (so maybe some thing like – 292 CON; 286 LAB: We could easily see a tie of course (33/1 with the bookies). These figures assume SNP get around 18 seats.

    John Curtice was just on Vine on R2, talking about the Greens in possible Coalition (with LAB). This was also discussed at length with Natalie Bennett by Emily Maitlis on Newsnight. Does this mean that these people are assuming GREEN get 5-6 seats?

    What I don’t understand is – the Greens are unlikely to have more than one seat. Why is it their chances of having a seat in the Cabinet be viewed and discussed in such a way that implies they are likely to get multiple seats – or are the commentators and pundits assuming it’s likely that Ms Lucas will be invited in by LAB in any scenario (if she holds her seat?)

  3. agreed, deepthroat, there are lots of media people who are paid too much with too little to do…the greens as a coalition partner is fanciful and will remain so under first past the post.

  4. Even if the Greens got 5 or 6 seats, that is too little to make them a viable coalition partner. At best they could turn a minority Labour government into one with a majority of <10, which is hardly worth it for Labour considering they would have to make policy concessions.

  5. I think if the Greens won just Brighton Pavillion then Caroline Lucas would reason she would have greater influence in opposition than in coalition. She seems to have used her outsider status as a soapbox over the last five years – recent news reminded me of when she wore that “no to page 3″ t-shirt in a Parliamentary session. I doubt she could get away with that sort of thing if she were a member of a governing party.

  6. Didn’t the Greens say that they’d be open to a confidence and supply agreement, rather than an actual coalition? Given that the most likely outcome is a hold in Brighton Pavilion and no further gains, neither is going to be a major game changer. If Labour win most seats but are short of a majority, the question is how they’ll negotiate with the Lib Dems and the SNP.

  7. i have to say the election is getting more gripping by the day…

    if labour don’t get into govt., the party will rip itself into bits with dan hodges and the blairites saying “i told you so” and the actual lefties complaining about losing their core support to the Greens, the SNP and some to UKIP…it will be a bloodbath, get out the popcorn…

    another stint in opposition will finish labour.

  8. Hodges has left the party but your point is true enough. Finish might be too strong, set the party back many years is extremely likely.

  9. Being in a shaky government would hurt them even more in my view when they realise they can’t implement half the policies they pledge.

    At least in opposition they can choose a more electable leader.

  10. Neil,

    I agree. I think the reds needed a decent win in 2015 to hold their coalition together. I think a slender election win with a weak centre-left government could finish labour as well.

    I thought the tories had weakened themselves by allowing ukip to outflank them but labour’s ability to hold their left of centre team together threatens to be just as bad.

    I think they will ditch Mili in a heartbeat if the tories get back in.

  11. ‘I think the reds needed a decent win in 2015 to hold their coalition together. I think a slender election win with a weak centre-left government could finish labour as well.’

    Since 1979 – almost 40 years ago – there hasn’t been a government that has been voted out of office after a mere term, therefore if Labour buck the trend in 2015, I think it’s a good result – especially considering that your friends in the tabloid press will waste no time reminding voters that it was under the last Labour government that the country was dragged into what we were told was the worst recession since the 1930s

    ‘I thought the tories had weakened themselves by allowing ukip to outflank them’

    The Tories have weakened themselves by playing UKIP’s game – and playing it badly

    Rather than stand up to UKIP and call them what they are – as strong and credible centre-right leaders like Merkel have done, Cameron insincerely attempts to ape them, and plays right into their hands, which is just another example of his inability to lead his party

    Of course Labour will ditch Miliband if the Tories get back in – it’s the way it goes – but they would have done themselves a huge favour had they never elected him in the first place

  12. Tim Jones
    Since 1979 – almost 40 years ago – there hasn’t been a government that has been voted out of office after a mere term, therefore if Labour buck the trend in 2015, I think it’s a good result – especially considering that your friends in the tabloid press will waste no time reminding voters that it was under the last Labour government that the country was dragged into what we were told was the worst recession since the 1930s

    Of course we disagree…i think cameron and miliband are b-list party leaders who didn’t have the political skills to win a majority in the uk…the public sees that.

    the “trend” you describe was “bucked” in 2010 when the tories failed to win an outright majority, leaving the first hung parliament since 1974. In 1979 the next election after that hung parliament, the Conservatives gained a solid majority. It was perfectly possible for labour to do the same in 2015. Mili’s singular weakness as a leader has prevented that.

    being a keen historian, you

  13. ‘Since 1979 … there hasn’t been a government that has been voted out of office after a mere term, therefore if Labour buck the trend in 2015, I think it’s a good result’

    After the 2010 election Labour were the only major UK-wide opposition to a government implementing pretty huge spending cuts, some unpopular tax rises, massive (and usually controversial) public sector reform. If they couldn’t make anything out of that…

    But they’ve apparently lost support to three other parties. The SNP threatens them in Scotland, UKIP threatens them in some of their English WWC areas, and the Greens seem to be eating into potential bohemian / liberal intelligentsia support.

    All three of the major established parties are in a pretty uncomfortable position.

  14. John D,

    I can’t agree with you more. I still think labour will limp into office, but Mili was the worst possible leader for them in these circumstances and i think he may well be about to lose a sitter of an election for labour to win.

    As you hint, the consequences to labour of another 5 years in opposition, with the SNP taking lumps out of them in Scotland, UKIP pressing them in the North and the Greens picking up soft left islington-type support, doesn’t bear thinking about, if you’re a labour activist.

    There will also be a fight between the remaining blairites- the few that are left- and the union-backed mccluskey wing of the party….whatever happens, it all promises to be entertaining.

  15. But Labour got kicked out in 2010 chiefly because voters didn’t trust them to run the economy any more. And it’s not as if they didn’t know what they were letting themselves in for as Cameron made reducing the budget deficit the cornerstone of his campaign

    Voters seemed to accept that the economy was screwed and drastic measures were needed to put it right

    Of course lots of people demonstrated against the cuts – but they would have done under any Labour government too

    Therefore I don’t agree that Labour was always favourites to win an outright majority in 2015 as typically after a heavy defeat (29% of the vote) after years in government parties tend to dessert the centre ground and turn on themselves as Labour did after 1979 and the Tories did after 1997

    Whilst you’re right that Labour has bucked this trend by appearing fairly united, i don’t its realistic to expect them to have walked back into government – not under Ed Milliband

  16. “Voters seemed to accept that the economy was screwed and drastic measures were needed to put it right”

    I don’t accept that at all.

    (hence “I’ll cut the deficit not the NHS”)

    Even fewer people agree that “drastic measures” are still needed so long after the recession officially ended.

    Had the recession not happened, Cameron would have won 40% of the vote and a comfortable majority.

  17. agree with miliband being the weak link. but they only need a 2.5% C to labour swing to be the largest party, if they fail to get this after 5 years, they haven’t really made the case very well, especially when you consider the lib dem collapse…when was the last time an opposition needed such a small swing to get into office …1997.

    with 258 seats, I don’t think 2010 was a heavy defeat in parliamentary terms.

  18. you are absolutely right, HH…it was fears about the public spending reductions that held up the labour vote in key marginals such as hammersmith. I was campaigning for the tories there, labour scare mongered effectively about the tories slashing benefits etc.

  19. Ladbrokes have odds on every constituency in Britain… This forecast (based on) if the current favourite in every seat were to win.

    296 Labour
    273 Conservatives
    31 Lib Dems 22 SNP
    5 UKIP -ThanetS/Thurrock/Clacton/BostonS/GY
    3 PC 1 Green

  20. Actually a very good forecast. The bookies obviously keep an eye on this from a top down perspective. I think the Tories may do better than that but, like Peter, that Labour will narrowly have most seats.

  21. “with 258 seats, I don’t think 2010 was a heavy defeat in parliamentary terms.”

    In that respect, yes it wasn’t an outright bloodbath in overall seat share. On the other hand their vote share just below 30% was terrible. Even the Conservatives in 1997 managed 30%, despite obviously being obliterated in seat numbers. I’m guessing they held onto more seats than predicted due to a couple factors. Lower turnouts on average in safe Labour seats compared to safe Tory ones; and the number of Labour seats becoming more marginal hence reduced greatly majorities from 2005.

  22. Interesting to note with those figures that, taking out the speaker and six Sinn Fein MPs if they get that many (who knows – Northern Ireland is weird), Labour could control a majority of 1 without the Lib Dems, should they find Nick Clegg too Tory for their tastes, by stringing along the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Caroline Lucas.

    And on another thread earlier today people were laughing at the Greens’ power in negotiations post-election.

  23. Lol, not even on another thread – it was on this thread :)

  24. Neil – very true. I think many forget that Blair in 2005 only managed 36%.

  25. I made a forecast about 6 months ago which was Lab 300, Con 270, LD 30. I didn’t predict so many SNP seats since this was before their surge.

  26. Thinks is Ladbrokes ‘prediction’ using the line they use to create evens chances on seat totals: e.g CON 282.5

    CON…283
    LAB….282
    LD……..29
    SNP…..29
    PC………4
    UKIP…..3
    GRN. ….1

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