Conservative Target Seats

These are the seventy-five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Conservatives in practice, or that they are the seats the Conservative party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Conservative party won 306 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another twenty seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 42 (0.1%)
2. Bolton West Majority 92 (0.2%)
3. Solihull Majority 175 (0.3%)
4. Southampton, Itchen Majority 192 (0.4%)
5. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 269 (0.6%)
6. Wirral South Majority 531 (1.3%)
7. Derby North Majority 613 (1.4%)
8. Wells Majority 800 (1.4%)
9. Dudley North Majority 649 (1.7%)
10. Great Grimsby Majority 714 (2.2%)
11. Morley & Outwood Majority 1101 (2.3%)
12. Telford Majority 978 (2.4%)
13. Walsall North Majority 990 (2.7%)
14. St Austell & Newquay Majority 1312 (2.8%)
15. Somerton & Frome Majority 1817 (3%)
16. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 1274 (3.1%)
17. Sutton & Cheam Majority 1608 (3.3%)
18. Halifax Majority 1472 (3.4%)
19. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 1552 (3.6%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 1677 (3.6%)
21. Wakefield Majority 1613 (3.6%)
22. St Ives Majority 1719 (3.7%)
23. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1588 (3.8%)
24. Gedling Majority 1859 (3.9%)
25. Eltham Majority 1663 (4%)
26. Walsall South Majority 1755 (4.3%)
27. Nottingham South Majority 1772 (4.3%)
28. Chippenham Majority 2470 (4.7%)
29. Tooting Majority 2524 (5%)
30. Chorley Majority 2593 (5.2%)
31. North East Derbyshire Majority 2445 (5.2%)
32. Exeter Majority 2721 (5.2%)
33. Blackpool South Majority 1852 (5.3%)
34. Westminster North Majority 2126 (5.4%)
35. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 103 (5.4%)
36. Southampton, Test Majority 2413 (5.5%)
37. Luton South Majority 2329 (5.5%)
38. Bridgend Majority 2263 (5.9%)
39. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 2630 (5.9%)
40. Delyn Majority 2272 (6.1%)
41. Cheadle Majority 3272 (6.2%)
42. North Cornwall Majority 2981 (6.4%)
43. Gower Majority 2683 (6.4%)
44. Norwich South Majority 310 (6.4%)
45. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 3049 (6.6%)
46. Eastbourne Majority 3435 (6.6%)
47. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2782 (6.7%)
48. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 2744 (6.7%)
49. Bury South Majority 3292 (6.8%)
50. Harrow West Majority 3143 (6.8%)
51. Bradford East Majority 365 (6.9%)
52. Taunton Deane Majority 3993 (6.9%)
53. Scunthorpe Majority 2549 (6.9%)
54. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 2690 (7%)
55. Vale of Clwyd Majority 2509 (7.1%)
56. Wolverhampton North East Majority 2484 (7.1%)
57. Eastleigh Majority 3864 (7.2%)
58. Hyndburn Majority 3090 (7.2%)
59. Alyn & Deeside Majority 2919 (7.3%)
60. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 3482 (7.5%)
61. Hammersmith Majority 3549 (7.5%)
62. Argyll & Bute Majority 3431 (7.6%)
63. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 1252 (7.6%)
64. Darlington Majority 3388 (7.9%)
65. Sefton Central Majority 3862 (8%)
66. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Majority 3684 (8.2%)
67. Clwyd South Majority 2834 (8.2%)
68. Bristol East Majority 3722 (8.3%)
69. Don Valley Majority 3595 (8.3%)
70. Torbay Majority 4078 (8.3%)
71. Coventry South Majority 3845 (8.4%)
72. Batley & Spen Majority 4406 (8.6%)
73. Angus Majority 3282 (8.6%)
74. Newport West Majority 3544 (8.9%)
75. Copeland Majority 3833 (9%)
Comments - 109 Responses on “Conservative Targets”
  1. Ironically if Labour was in during this Parliament gay Marriage would probably have been introduced( through maybe not if Brown was the PM as I don’t think he was completely committed to it) and the vast majority of the PLP voted for it.

  2. @Peter Crawford

    I don’t disagree with you at all that both Cannock and Dudley South are a challenge for the Conservatives based on local results since 2010. They are however – especially Dudley South – exactly the type of seats the Conservatives have to stay competitive in to remain the largest party, let alone get a majority. If they lack the confidence to contest these , they appear to be throwing in the towel already, not least give the dearth of seats currently held by Labour that they can hope to gain.

    And remember Halesowen / Rowley Regis and Stourbridge are similar seats to Dudley South.

  3. I don’t disagree with you at all that both Cannock and Dudley South are a challenge for the Conservatives based on local results since 2010. They are however – especially Dudley South – exactly the type of seats the Conservatives have to stay competitive in to remain the largest party, let alone get a majority. If they lack the confidence to contest these , they appear to be throwing in the towel already, not least give the dearth of seats currently held by Labour that they can hope to gain.
    And remember Halesowen / Rowley Regis and Stourbridge are similar seats to Dudley South.

    couldn’t agree more…it’s pretty crazy for the tories to give up on those seats, but then again I am still, even after the scottish meltdown, sceptical about the tories’ ability to get the most seats, still less to form a government.

    I am sceptical about the list for the reason you describe.

  4. Stourbridge is in fact somewhat different from the other seats mentioned. In Stourbridge, the middle of the road suburban areas outweigh the traditional working-class ones whereas in the others seats they are finely balanced, hence why Stourbridge is more Conservative-leaning.

  5. In my view the Conservatives will lose Cannock Chase, Halesowen & RR, and Dudley South but retain Stourbridge. Remember that Black Country seats can be volatile so if Dudley South goes it does not mean that other in the lower reaches of Labour’s target list are in danger.

  6. I don’t think Stourbridge is that much different from Dudley West. In both cases Labour clearly are ahead in the 3 eastern wards, whilst 2 of the western wards (the Kingswinford wards in Dudley West , and the Norton and Pedmore/Stourbridge East in Stourbridge) are Conservative. The remaining one ward in Dudley West (Wordsley) and two in Stourbridge (Woolaston/Town and Amblecote) are essentially 3 way marginals with UKIP competitive. The overall majority is near identical. I could see both tracking in the same way – though Margot James may get an incumbency bonus.

  7. I don’t know why anyone would predict the Tories losing Stourbridge. Labour need a 5.5% swing which implies a national lead of 4%. The current UKPR polling average puts them 1% ahead.

  8. Firstly it is Dudley South not Dudley West (forgive my pedantry).

    Secondly, of Dudley South’s six wards three were quite clearly Labour-leaning in 2010 (though Netherton will have been tight) and three clearly Tory-leaning (including Wordsley actually). Of Stourbridge’s seven wards three will have leaned Labour with four leaning Conservative (even in Stoubridge Town, the Conservatives will have led handily enough). And if you are going to look at what has happened post-2010, then I think I can point out that in 2014, the Conservatives carried Stourbridge over Labour (albeit by only 600 or so) whereas the Conservatives finished third in Dudley South behind UKIP and Labour.

  9. Pedantry accepted :-) (Drat these boundary reviews!)

    My comments about the wards were based on the 2014 local election results. In those UKIP won Wordsley with the Conservatives just one vote ahead of Labour and UKIP also won Amblecote , with the Conservatives in 2nd place and Labour only about 100 votes behind that : so fairly close 3 way contests.

    And I do agree that the Conservatives should hold Stourbridge – but if, to come back to my original posting, they have doubts about their position in Dudley South, that does suggest a tight contest in Stourbridge too.

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