Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 474 Responses on “Conservative Defence”
  1. H.Hemmelig – because of password issues l ended up with 2 facebook accounts! The account you presumably sent the message to is not in use. Could you please message me on the other one? (The one with me grinning & holding a bottle of beer!) . Yes Robin has been in touch about the bet.
    at least l got Belfast E right! but my mistakes even spread to Northern Ireland. l certainly didn’t see the UU win in S Antrim coming, and was very surprised by Fermanagh too. Thanks for your kind words Lancs Observer, which are not really justified.
    Meanwhile l have posted on the Richmond Park thread.

  2. Anyone who used the national polls and also ASHCROFT in predicting a hung parliament with the two big parties neck and neck is totally understandable.

    But, as I pointed out, the similarities to 1992 were so striking
    & also the undecided were a large group in GE2015, that I was puzzled why only two or three others on this website agreed with me. (that CON would do very well – get close to or over 300).

    2015/1992: weak Opp Lab ldr/CON ahead on both best PM & economy / swingback to Tory govt (mid term & eve of poll) /

    I feel there are other things that were crucial others said were not important:

    Tories bribes – (enterprise local deals*; annuities; housing associations rtb*), all these I said would make a difference &
    if you take into account (snall things) like those plus the overall picture then, imo, it was clear that we would see a win for CON.

    * Two examples:
    PLYMOUTH SUTTON D..enterprise deal
    PLYMOUTH MOOR V……enterprise deal
    BEDFORD. …………………..housing associations rtb. As I pointed out BEDFORD has 20% of its properties are housing association owned.

    People are selfish.

    Labour’s overall message came across as :

    “VOTE FOR US AS WE WILL HELP THE POOR”

    People in England are not altruistic enough (or secure enough ) to buy into that en masse and without question.

    And unfortunately the poor are so bewildered and defeated and depressed – they don’t vote.

  3. Nice to see Barnaby back on the site again.

  4. well, l’m here, but l ain’t predicting.

  5. I concur with Andy, it’s good to have you back Barnaby.

  6. At the risk of souding patronising, BM – You are of course always welcome.

    Do you think Keir Starmer has a chance of getting Labour leader – good forename for a Labour leader ; )

  7. you mean long-term or now? now, certainly not.

  8. BM

    You never told us that your real name was Nigel Farage!!

  9. I also wish for Barnaby to continue posting here. I always enjoy reading his thoughts on all kinds of constituencies and it would really be a shame if he no longer posted here because of incorrectly predicting last week’s election results. We were all surprised about the outcome. You live and learn. That’s all there is to it.

  10. I think everyone will be more wary of predicting next time.
    Wouldn’t it be shocking next time through if Labour or the Tories were 6-8% ahead in the polls but then a close hung parliament happened in the exit poll and on the night. The complete reverse of last week. I think another failure like that would destroy polls altogether.

  11. on an even swing, Labour would struggle to get a majority even if 8% ahead. Would need to do much better in the target seats. Even more so after boundary changes.

  12. This is without looking at data, but I wonder if we’re getting to a point where the focus on marginal seats is leading to greater swings there, and especially things like late movement being magnified.

  13. The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2015: Tim Carr, Iain Dale and Robert Waller.

    Can’t find any reviews…has anyone here on UKPR bought or read this book…is it good?… Thanks

  14. After the Summer Budget George Osborne goes to clear favourite to become next Tory leader and PM.

    GO..11/4
    BJ….3/1
    TM…7/1
    SJ….7/1

  15. Oh, I do hope so.

  16. I used to think until recently that Johnson was a certainty to take over from Cameron – now I’m fairly sure George Osborne is the heir apparent.

    Apart from anything else, I am pretty certain that anyone who screams and swears in public will never be allowed to be PM.

  17. Its been a round for a few weeks that five MPs are under investigation for expenses rorts.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop … enses.html

    Today’s Telegraph (for which I cannot get a link) reports that MPs are circling the wagons so that MPs who “are arrested” will not be named. Firstly sounds pretty serious if arrests are being mooted and secondly if the Telegraph are talking of MPs protecting anyone then it sounds more like Tory MPs protecting Tory MPs so if arrests and presumably by-elections are coming down the pike they might just be some interesting Tory targets.

    I wonder if Simon Danczuk is one of the five or he is just a conversation starter/distraction.

  18. This refusal to name names is highly unsatisfactory. Doubtless names will be being whispered around the bars of Westminster.

    perhaps an MP f integrity should get up in the House and tell use the truch, or at least ask for the names (which presumably the Speaker will refuse to tell him or her in he usual way).

  19. The procedural change – recommended by the Procedure Committee – to end the requirement for the Speaker to inform the house of the arrest of members is a reaction to the Mark Pritchard case a year or so back: he was named but soon cleared; however, his reputation was undoubtedly damaged. It is a difficult judgment call but on balance I think it better for MPs to be treated like anybody else in public life – that is, the police will make a decision on whether it is in the public interest to name a suspect.

  20. Can’t see a legitimate “public interest” test being met in these particular cases.

    The thing is – it’s my understanding that when a newspaper has already discovered a suspect’s name and seek confirmation of it, the police are permitted to confirm the name.

    In that scenario, I believe they will (in these particular cases) but I’m not certain.

  21. The Graun has spoken to about 70 Conservative Associations, where there’s unsurprisingly a bit of division over Europe: http://tinyurl.com/zbea4vt

  22. I don’t want to be rude about your father but that is a pretty ridiculous and offensive analogy.

  23. Also the bit about comparing the democratically elected German Chancellor to Hitler.

  24. I don’t really care whether you’re for Leave or Remain, or whether you think Cameron’s renegotiation was a a cynical sham or not. I just hope this doesn’t degenerate into months of little Englander nationalism – there are far better arguments to be made on both sides. Also, Nazi analogies are unhelpful and pretty offensive, especially given you’re perfectly free to criticise, vote against and potentially leave the EU.

  25. ‘a pretty ridiculous and offensive analogy.’

    Massively inaccurate too as I find it incomprehensible that Churchill would support Brexit were he alive today

    Churchill was a pro-European British Nationalist who recognised the perils of nationalism which so often leads to isolationism – which separates him from most of today’s so-called Nationalists who support Brexit

  26. Of course the referendum won’t heal what has been a deep rupture right down the middle of the Tory party for over 25 years. But I’m an optimistic person and don’t necessarily buy into the notion that post-referendum things will be much worse than they were already. The party has accommodated massively divergent views on Europe for a long time, for long periods when the leadership wasn’t even offering a referendum, so I don’t see why they won’t be able to again. In the event of defeat the Brexit camp won’t stop being sceptics but they will surely have, for a period at least, to accept the democratic will of the people. In the event that they lose the pro-EU camp will have to do likewise. I think that ministers at least are sincere about wanting to pull together after the referendum.

    As for what happens with UKIP I don’t think they’ll go away, but equally I’m not convinced the public care about the EU issue enough for them to do an SNP and sweep up all of the Brexit voters. But we’ll have to wait and see.

  27. I am an optimist and think that the Tories will be riven by this.

    I also think that Boris wins either way as the Tory grassroots are mostly BOO. The leadership contest then becomes a grudge match between Boris and an “inner” who would be less popular than the tousled one.

    We will be in a position of both major parties being in a “electability-challenged” situation.

  28. Not just the big two parties. Farage isn’t popular and the Lib Dems have been flatlining for a year despite a change of leader and being out of government. The Greens have been gutted by Corbyn, and no other forces appear to be active nationwide.

  29. Boris famously said that he was “pro-having a cake and pro-eating it”.

    This puts him firmly in line with the majority of public opinion.

    Democratic countries generally get the governments they deserve.

  30. I don’t see this ending well for the Tories. In some ways, the best result for party unity might be a vote to leave. Cameron would presumably go fairly quickly and Boris would be a fairly short-priced favourite to take over. I suspect that there are not that many on the remain side in the party who would continue to make much of a fuss afterwards in that case.

    In the event of remain winning, I find it hard to see the margin being sufficient to resolve the issue for the foreseeable future. Even 60-40 probably only kick it into touch for ten years or so, and if it was 55-45 or closer, it would be very surprising if the more fanatical outers were to let things lie. I think it’s more likely that, in such a scenario, UKIP would be re-energised, and Europe would (again) be the predominant issue in every Tory party matter.

  31. What do leavers say if there is a vote to remain? Perhaps they can get exercised by whether the renegotiation (which they thought was insignificant) has been fully implemented, and no doubt down the road they will find things the EU does that they think justify re-opening the issue. But in the immediate aftermath of the referendum I’m not sure they are in a very strong position. They can hardly turn round and say despite the referendum we want to leave unilaterally – that’s what the Bennites did in the early ’80s and it didn’t go down well.

  32. They’ll say that they accept the verdict of the British people, but that they intend to continue to campaign for Britain to withdraw from the EU, as is their democratic right. Then they’ll go back to carping about everything that happens in Europe. Some of the more fundamentalist ones will start saying that there should be another referendum soon. Then the serious ones will say something along the lines of there should only be another referendum if things change significantly, but that they still share the same goal. After a few years, they’ll all want another referendum.

  33. @Simon

    Replace ‘Europe’ with ‘Westminster’ and that is what happened with the SNP.

    But don’t think that scenario is necessarily disastrous for the Tory party. Backbenchers, in greater or lesser numbers, have been carping about everything that happens in Europe since 1973 and the party has just about held together. No doubt the leading leavers would be given ministerial posts to make sure they don’t carp too much, and Boris or another leaver may end up leader by 2020.

  34. @Jack Sheldon Well, indeed. Because 55-45 doesn’t settle much long-term, especially when people really care about an issue.

    Assuming Remain does win, is it not going to be very awkward for the Tories to have a leader who campaigned for Leave?

  35. JACK SHELDON

    The party kept together by their successful leaders making out that they loathed Europe, allowing some to believe they were an actual BOOer, without being one. Thatcher was particularly successful at this, Cameron less so.

    I also think in the 1990s, mainstream Tory Euroscepticism was not of the more hard-line BOO variety.

    Given the concrete opportunity for Brexit, and the enthusiastic endorsement that Cameron is going to have to give the Remain campaign, he is about as likely to survive as a Labour Prime Minster jumping into bed with General Pinochet.

  36. Maxim Parr Reid

    I think Labour will be keeping their distance from Cameron on this one.

    Popcorn-munching time for Labour…let’s face it, the last 12 months has hardly been a barrel of laughs for them.

  37. MAXIM PARR-REID

    Labour can make a different argument to the Tories. They can also twist the knife in the Tories.

    I would guess Labour’s order of priorities would be:

    Completely wreck the Tory Party. > Stay in EU. > Get rid of Cameron.

  38. Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn will dominate the Labour campaign… Corbyn is not at all good on this subject and Remain would be well advised to keep his appearances to a minimum… his response in the Commons today, not catching the mood at all by banging on about workers rights, TTIP and so on, was a perfect demonstration of why he shouldn’t be used very much.

    Not sure parties on the same platform is quite the issue it was in Scotland. If indeed it was a problem in Scotland – I think the problem was less that Labour voters were outraged by their party sharing a platform with the Scottish Tories (who weren’t that prominent in the campaign anyway), but rather that the whole political system was realigned along unionist-nationalist lines and Labour, having been united behind the union, offered little to the latter. I don’t think the EU will cause a realignment, though there is undoubtedly some potential for UKIP to benefit.

  39. JACK SHELDON

    The issues raised by Corbyn are those which are important to the left. The referendum will be fought across the whole country, not just the 35% or so who voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. It is the other 65% who will decide it.

  40. @Hawthorn

    They did nothing for making the case to stay in the EU though. There are plenty of other occasions for landing blows on Cameron, this referendum isn’t it. He’d have done much better to make some jokes about Boris’s two referendum argument and about the fact that some parts of the renegotiation were in the Labour manifesto, to echo Cameron’s points about security etc., to ask a few probing questions about the detail and perhaps then to briefly touch on how Labour value the social chapter etc.

  41. CON + UKIP was 49% or 15.2m (11.3m + 3.9m).

    The electorate will be c. 47m. Turnout expected to be c. 60%.

    So on that basis either side need half of 28m.

  42. Con + UKIP received 50.7% in Britain. Northern Ireland brought the percentage down to 49%.

  43. We have the first guess at turnout – PADDY POWER have got their line at 60.5%.

    However odds on offer are: 8/13 UNDER & 6/5 OVER.

  44. Deepthroat

    I am including people who did not vote in 2015 and who are still affected. My figures are rough.

  45. Ok – sorry. What’s your guess at turnout – I am always optimistic about people voting and correctly guessed very early on that % turnout would be at least 75% in the Scottish indy ref.

    Could the EU ref be similarly participative? No – don’t believe we’ll get +80%, but I am confident it’ll be + 60%. This is a referendum like no other one before it & there are a few examples of very high turnouts in independence referendums (which this one essentially is).

  46. One really wonders at the fate of openly Eurosceptic MPs who suddenly switch for In. They can surely expect a chunk of their votes to go UKIP in 2020… that is if there is a UKIP in 2020…(presuming a pro-Brexit result kills UKIP)

    By my count three avowedly Eurosceptic backbenchers have gone for Remain on the basis of “backing their PM”.

  47. Well the first hurdle for those MPs to overcome will be to avoid deselection by their associations.

  48. I expect the biggest dilemma is for new MPs who told their selection meeting that they were Eurosceptic and would vote to leave on current terms, but who in reality are not particularly fussed by Europe and would rather back the PM. Hard for them to claim the renegotiation as grounds for voting In.

  49. Perhaps the mandatory reselection threat due to the MP reduction to 600 is concentrating some minds on the Tory backbenches.

    If so, it serves Cameron right.

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