Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 474 Responses on “Conservative Defence”
  1. I agree with you…. I meant me breaking out the champagne over the LibDem numbers.. with half one’s slaves dead one just has to whip the other half to do twice the work… LibDem slaves are used to getting whipped! LoL

  2. FWIW I think most people are being too pessimistic on Lib Dem seat totals, including many Lib Dems themselves. I think they will be somewhere in the high 30s, perhaps even 40 on a good night.

    I look back fondly at my friendly bet with Joe James Broughton before 2010 that the Lib Dems would have closer to 50 seats than 30. I wish I had staked money on it though JJB never seems to be willing to do that. I think Iain Dale and the others who are predicting 20something seats are committing JJB’s mistake.

    I’ll believe that this Green surge will amount to something when Barnaby or Merseymike say they are voting Green. Until then I’m pretty sure it will fall flat.

  3. My impression of this Green surge is that it is composed entirely of the same people who fell head over heels in love with Clegg after the first debate in 2010. They are left of centre, liberal, largely middle class and young (students especially vulnerable) but they dislike Labour because of the Iraq War and their commitment to some spending cuts.

  4. The word surge is an exaggeration when describing the Green Party. It could be perhaps used to describe UKIP. Instead of surge I would go with ‘a gentle rise from insignificance to the point where they are on the cusp of being vaguely relevant’.

  5. “I’ll believe that this Green surge will amount to something when Barnaby or Merseymike say they are voting Green. Until then I’m pretty sure it will fall flat”.

    Agreed (frightening to find Hemmelig and I on the same page).. I cannot remember which seat it was in the last two days but one had a posting that they were doing a whip around or somesuch to see if they could get a deposit for a Green candidate… even Monster Raving Loony Party are more solvent than that… with the best will in the world I’m wondering if this membership surge they are having at the Greens will amount to much in the way of actual organisation in the run up to the polls…. or will Natalie Bennett just end up herding cats..

  6. I am happy to confirm that I will supporting the Labour & most definitely not the Green Party in the general election. Robin is well to the right of me in Labour Party terms & I’m sure he will not change his allegiance either. Whereas I live in a very un-Labour seat indeed, he lives in a very safe Labour one. In fact, I have argued bitterly with some Greens on the social media, though I have urged others not to treat the Greens as the main enemy, which if you are in the Labour Party they really are not unless you happen to live in Brighton Pavilion or at a pinch Norwich S.

  7. I suspect this spoof on Tory roadies is a case of life imitates art:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/20/young-tory-campaign-bus-road-trip-2015

  8. re-igniting this debate….see upthread.
    Broadcasters have published new plans for TV election debates including leaders of seven UK political parties.

    BBC NEWS: “The BBC and ITV plan to stage debates involving the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems, Green Party, UKIP, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Sky and C4’s plan to host a head-to-head between Cameron and Miliband remains unchanged.

    The broadcasters said the debates would go ahead regardless of whether any party leader refused to take part…”

    So there WILL be TV debates, but who/how many?
    the plan is7/7/2.

  9. Grant Shapps : tonight on BBC R4 Any Q’s? Asked what he would he say to God at the Pearly Gates:

    “….you’re really here?!- and God would probably say, ‘Yes, and I’m surprised you’re here!'”

    Is this an admission of guilt at some of his Coalition’s somewhat less than angelic policies?

  10. The Tories would have to suffer some sort of disaster before May for seats in which they have a majority of over 10% to come into serious play. Labour don’t seem to have got anything like enough momentum to win seats like Dover or South Ribble.

    Labour are playing a very risky game if they think, as they appear to, that they can win simply by picking off the “easier fruit” in places like Gloucester, Nothampton North and Bury North. They may in any case require to get harder targets as I do not share the views of some English based commentators who find it hard to see the SNP fufilling current polling predictions North of the Border.

  11. And the Populus poll also shows that UKIPers aren’t as heavily weighted to non-voters (presuming they were not dissembling) in 2010 as many think..

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKIP3-800×553.jpg

  12. I have seen suggestions that Labour are doing better in London than the provinces. Is it therefore possible that the Conservatives might lose seats like Hampstead and Kilburn, Hendon, Brentwood and Isleworth and Enfield North even if they win the election nationally?

    Some seat by seat analysis of this might be useful.

    One issue is that seats in London can change rapidly in terms of their demographics, which could place some of the above seats at risk from a Conservative point of view.

  13. Pickles ‘ends War on drivers’

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31759767

    A clever timely move by the Conservative Party. – there must be many people who will like, many who may be protest non – voters.

    I actually withheld my vote once, in a safe seat, in protest over a zealous council parking ticket.

  14. How many more concessions from the Tories? ?

    Pensioner concessions, building new houses, writing off parking tickets…what next??

  15. In much of London & the South East the problem isn’t parking tickets, it is that there is nowhere to park, places like stations & hospitals especially. Like many of Pickles’ other gimmicks, this will make the situation worse by making it harder to find parking as people routinely go over the time on their ticket.

    The key concessions, as I’ve posted before, are the ones for pensioners.

  16. But most car owners (who are most adults) would have been issued with a parking ticket recently. This is all about being on the side of the driver and against the council – I do agree with your pensioner concession comment & we may have seen signs of the benefits of such policies in the very recent polls.

    The ‘end of the war on drivers’ though – it’s my guess – is going to be a nice little vote winner.

    But as usual with these things – it’s hard to know/measure what psephological impact there will be.

  17. “But most car owners (who are most adults) would have been issued with a parking ticket recently.”

    What an absolutely ludicrous thing to say. In 21 years of driving I’ve never ever got a parking ticket and I’m far from unusual in that. If people park illegally they should expect a ticket. Plenty of us have problems with illegal parking outside our houses, blocking driveways etc, who certainly will not appreciate this kind of liberalisation.

  18. Thats all well and good HH but I have witnessed over zealous wardens stand by certain cars waiting for the time to come when they can ticket it, even if they can see the owner running and shouting to catch their attention.

    IMO the extra 10 mins isn’t going to cause chronic parking problems.

    Pickles wants to tackle car parking charges next and then the waste of money that is the road tax.

  19. i agree with hh on this. and i also have considerable doubts that pickles will be believed by many motorists – there has been talk about this on a number of previous occasions & nothing has ever come of it.

  20. There is a glaring inconsistency between the Tories trumpeting their “sticking to our long term plan” on the one hand and their desperately scattering out inconsistent giveaways and gimmicks on the other. It demeans them and I wish they wouldn’t do it. I wouldn’t trust Eric Pickles as far as I could throw him. Remember his promise on weekly bin collections for example.

  21. The conservatives 40:40 strategy means they are pretty much only defending the top 40 seats on this list. Now, obviously, like Labours target list this may have been revised since it was announced unofficially, but certainly blogs like ConHome indicate that Cons are still moving resources from marginals to 40:40 seats, at the expense of others, like High Peak etc.

    A) if this happens, Labour has a fight on its hands in the 40 most marginals, but the swing from 2010 + collapse of lib dems + labs ground game – cons ground game should, roughly equal a labour win in most if not all of these (Places like Thurrock notwithstanding).

    B) if 40:40 seats are being prioritised above non-40:40 seats, this effectively means that labour has an open field in seats 41 and above. I think this may well be why they are competitive in High Peak etc when polls wouldn’t necessarily say they would be. Lab ground game is better than the cons, but if these seats aren’t getting any/much support, I think that means that lab has a big advantage here. Ie, combining swing since 10, lib collapse, labours ground game and the cons lack of defence may mean that most of these too fall to labour, even though Ashcroft shows some to be staying Con.

    Does this mean that the conservatives might actually end up losing more seats than a national swing would suggest (in the same way that they won fewer seats than national swing in 2010) because they are defending the indefensible and not defending the defensible?

    Thoughts?

  22. HH – The Tories pledged to raise the national speed limit to 80mph in 2005. Whilst lots of these things are gimmicks, I’m amazed they think the public don’t think it’s all a bit late in the day eg Married Couple’s transfer allowance a month before Polling Day.

  23. I largely agree with you squarewheels. I think the 40-40 strategy is a large error. Swamping the likes of Enfield North with hundreds if leaflets is a very poor campaign strategy, a complete waste of resources. I wonder how many voters are already sick of posh tory boys knocking on their doors and submerging their floors with leaflets.

  24. Also, after briefly looking at each seat 01-80 on this list, and weighing up the Ashcroft polls, comments, local results, lib dem 2010 vote and other factors, I’ve come up with a following prediction:

    Con VS Lib Dem/Other Holds:
    20

    Con VS Other Losses:
    2 (Thurrock (either to UKIP or Labour) and Dumfriesshire to SNP)

    Con VS Lab too close to call/Con hold:
    16

    One labour hold already (Corby)

    Which makes 45 Labour gains from Con pretty much assured. I have labour ahead in all bottom 40 where they came second in 2010, and I expect that some wierd seats like Pudsey would be balanced out by seats like Ilford North which might go labour, so I’m fairly comfortable with a minimum of 45 labour gains from this list. I doubt lib dems will win any off the Tories.

    The 16 too close to call ones include 1 in Wales which I think the cons will keep, one in Scotland they will lose (maybe?) and 14 which Labour would win if the thing in my post above is true.

    So, in total, in this hypothesis where cons don’t defend 41 and a above, I would expect to see on this list 59 con losses, 57 to labour and one to UKIP/lab and one to SNP.

  25. Squarewheeled – that’s an interesting point. I assume 40:40 just means they’re prioritising those seats with extra resources and Road Trip buses of CF activists etc. But there’s certainly a close fight in seats such as Rossendale. Maybe 40:40 just means seats outside them don’t get special CCHQ funding.

  26. Lancs

    Check out the diary of a candidate on ConHome. It’s a dire account of someone who is being rammed into a 40:40 marginal against his will. I bet Andrew Bingham et Al are looking at the Ashcroft polling and squarking, but by all accounts, this is Crosby’s firm grip doing its work.

  27. Greetings from windy Chicago.

    I think people are taking the 40:40 thing too literally. It only really makes sense as a fluid concept rather than a fixed list. It’s obvious the Tories have zero chance of making 40 gains. Perhaps they have a chance in 20-odd Lib Dem seats. Given this I’d be amazed if 40:40 hadn’t, in reality, morphed into something like 20:60. Coincidentally I think 60 gains is Labour’s realistic absolute maximum (from the Tories), on current poling.

  28. Square Wheel,

    I can assure you Bingham is not in the least worried, a fairly comfortable hold is the expectation even from the Labour campaigners I speak to.

    Like I said on the individual seat profile I wouldn’t take too much note on Lordy’s poll on High Peak, totally unproven individual seat polls and without in depth knowledge of the area, High Peak must be nigh on impossible to poll.

    I think the overall picture you paint is very optimistic for Labour, 25 to 30 pick ups is more realistic. Amber Valley for 1 right near the top is very much a 50/50 call now.

  29. I agree with the last sentence by IAN WRIGHT.

    SQUARE WHEEL says 45 of the above CON defence seats will fall to LAB but I have them winning just 12 – 20.

    Seats like. NOT EXHAUSTIVE lists

    A – Obvious holds like Newton Abbot

    B- Probable Lab gains including
    Warwickshire North
    Hendon
    Sherwood
    Broxtowe
    Weaver Vale
    Dewsbury
    Waveney
    Stockton S
    Wolverhampton South West
    Bedford

    C – CON to hold:
    MorecambeL
    Harrow E
    Watford
    Croydon Central
    Blackpool North

    I think there MAY be ‘surprise’ CON holds:

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Broxtowe
    Ealing Cent A
    Brentford

    Done that my phone from memory so please forgive any stupid obvious errors.

  30. Living in Norwich S I can assure everyone Labour is making no effort whatsoever to pander to the Green vote

  31. Deepthroat- I’ve seen some wildly optimistic predictions re: the Tories seat count on this site, but your latest post may take the biscuit.

  32. Harrow East has Tory hold written all over it. Watford is unpredictable in that the three main parties remain competitive but with the left wing vote potentially split between Labour and Lib Dems it enables a narrow Tory hold.

    Of the seats with tiny majorities, Stockton South might be a surprise hold.

  33. Deepthroat – I’m still fairly sure you can move Brentford & Isleworth from “surprise Con hold” to “probable Lab gain”. B&I probably only just limped over the line as a Con gain in 2010 as a result of the incumbent’s unpopularity over expenses.

  34. You’re all deluded. This time 5 years ago you lot weer saying that the Tories were going to win Sefton Central and Ellesmere Port.

    There are labour gains all over the place in the top 50 due to either no Ukip in 2010, low labour turnout, high lib dem vote, tory ceiling.

  35. Darkarts,

    You seem to have quite an aggressive style, which I like, by the way.

    But you’re right, the latest ashcroft polling out today suggests to me there is mass delusion on the part of some conservatives…

    his average c to lab swing is 4.375% over the 8 seats he published today…this is broadly in line with much of the national polling, showing the two parties neck and neck, or labour a smidgen in front.

    This has to change drastically and quickly for Dave to have a chance…yet we still have kellner claiming the tories will win “nearly” 300 seats.

  36. He’s correct in that the Conservatives’ seat total will be nearer 300 than zero. The Ashcroft polling has been fascinating this parliament, quite healthy for the debate and not to mention very useful for the parties in designing their campaigns.

  37. mrnameless

    I don’t react to Ashcroft polls. I react on probability.

    Tories win england by 10 points in 2010.
    Labour vote at 29%.

    We are defying statistical gravity if we believe that the tories can lose 20 seats. fantasy land.

    If the election were today and the tories were leading england by 3-4 points then any seat in the 65-80 territory is on the edge of falling. People claim lib dems are going to the tory party, but the tories are still only winning england by 3 pts so it doesn’t matter.

    Labour up ^ Tories v = Labour gain seats in england. no ifs no buts.

  38. dark arts,

    Of course, you are right.
    I have been saying this for ages. the tories beat labour by 11% in England in 2010. 299 of the 307 seats the tories won in 2010 were in england….

    any swing from conservative to labour in england will result in seat losses to labour….

    Most polls, both national and constituency, have shown a swing in England of between 3.5% to 5% from Con to labour…if this is maintained, there will be 45+ losses from C to Labour.

    your focus on england is absolutely right. you, me, tory, james peel and one or two others are about the only people on this site who get this. smithson has been banging on about this for months…but it’s bedlam out there, with people saying all kinds of crazy stuff…some clever fellow on the polling blog site thinks the tories will win “a slim majority”. Many of us, of course, realise this is all madness.

    Personally, I think the actual swing will be nearer to 3% than 5%, but i see 40 losses from conservative to labour…i think the tories will win 10 seats from the lib dems, so i see them on about 268-272, depending on how many seats ukip pick up from them….people seem to have forgotten that thanet south and thurrock are currently tory held seats.

  39. Deepthroat – even if that v low swing to Labour occurred [I agree with PC that it’ll be nearer notional nat swing of 4-5% to Lab due to LD>Lab, quite apart from UKIP], Anna Soubry wouldn’t hang on. Her and McVey are good examples of more coverage of them harming their vote.

  40. ‘Her and McVey are good examples of more coverage of them harming their vote.’

    Whilst that might be the case witrh McVey – how could anyone not be put off by that horrendous accent she puts on, I don’t think Soubry has done her self much harm

    She was on Question Time the other week and she was head and shoulders above the other politicians on the panel

    She came across as sensible, gave honest answers to honest questions, and arguably most importantly of all, she came across as likeable – which is were so many fellow Tory MPs fail

    Both of them have trcicky jobs holding onto their ultra marginal seats but both of these seats are considerably more middle class than your typical marginal and the type of liberal Torysim Soubry espouses (and McVey doesn’t) might help her hang onto some voters who might otherwise opt for a left-of-centre alternative

  41. I think the Tories will be in the 270-280 region, my current projection being 275. I just can’t see anyway the Tories could form the government in May barring some unforeseen disaster for Labour which is extremely unlikely.

  42. How about Tories 275, LD 35, DUP 9, UKIP 5? That’s a majority once you take Sinn Fein’s abstentionism into account.

  43. Can’t see the LDs joining a coalition with UKIP. And crawling over the line in a four-party coalition doesn’t look very stable to me.

  44. Wouldn’t necessarily be a coalition, just a confidence and supply arrangement to keep Cameron in Downing Street.

  45. It wouldn’t be a viable option for the reasons Mrnameless says and the Lib Dems will work with the party that is more likely to be Labour. I also think once the reality of their electoral drubbing sets in their party membership will want to be as far away from government as possible.

    This is a website which maps the constituency betting odds: http://bet2015.co.uk/. I broadly agree though there are some individual seats where I don’t.

  46. I’m guessing Crawley is just outside of their top 100 defence seats?? but they are clearly doing everything they can to reatin it as Theresa May launched Henry Smith’s campaign a couple of weeks back. (Maj 5,928) 12.5%

  47. I don’t think Labour will get into any kind of arrangement with the SNP because they know it would be fatal for their support in England at the following election.

    It’s looking increasingly likely that a second election will have to be held.

  48. “Can’t see the LDs joining a coalition with UKIP. And crawling over the line in a four-party coalition doesn’t look very stable to me”

    There is no way that the lib dems and ukip will be in the same coalition.

  49. Don’t disagree Tim… but I thought Ruth Davidson was a good shout for the strongest panellist in Glasgow. Dugsdale, Alexander and UKIP’s favourite MSP seemed flaky by comparison, despite all having more tenable policy positions for a Scottish audience. Don’t see it altering many votes or flipping any seats though.

  50. “There is no way that the lib dems and ukip will be in the same coalition.”

    And there’s no way the SNP and Labour will be in the same coalition. And it’s very unlikely that the LDs and Labour will be in the same coalition given the bad feeling between the two parties.

    Doesn’t look good for the possibility of a coalition.

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