Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 444 Responses on “Conservative Defence”
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  1. Any chance of putting in a couple of columns showing what rank these seats are on the Labour / Lib Dem targets.

    I’d say it’s an important different whether the seats are being defended from Labour, Lib Dems, or both.

  2. I agree, a vunerable to Labour column and a seperate LD column (obviously 1 consituancy could be in both lists) would be nice.

    Likewise with Lab and LD vunerable seats (although maybe including SNP / PC where appropiate)

  3. I agree. In fact, it would be more interesting to have a list of the top 100 targets for each party (with the colour code representing the incumbant).

  4. I expect that the Conservatives are at risk of losing more than 100 seats

  5. I suspect they probably won’t. And a lot of those on this list aren’t especially vulnerable really. Some of them were not even lost by the Tories in 1997 or 2001. The Tories are nowhere near as unpopular now as they were then, and Labour and the Lib Dems are nowhere near as popular.

    You could realistically expect Labour to regain the real ultra marginals that they lost last time but beyond that its pretty up in the air, especially as its not certain what will happen to the Lib Dem vote.

  6. What a sensible post

  7. I concur. Thank you for that display of common sense, Hector. We need more of that round here.

  8. Marginal polling on 13 Conservative-held seats – 10 with Labour and 3 with the Lib Dems:

    I wouldn’t pay too much attention to any particular seat, as the sample in each case is far too small to be close to reliable. The exception is Thurrock, where the UKIP share is sufficiently higher than everywhere else to probably be meaningful, especially given the Ashcroft poll.

    It looks very bad for the Lib Dems, but it’s hardly surprising that they’d fall back in seats where strong tactical support still wasn’t enough in 2010. Labour perform notably well in the East Midlands seats, which may or may not be coincidence.

  9. No sh*t the tories are heading for defeat in Lancaster & Fleetwood! This poll tells little we didn’t know already.

    Lib dem collapse and UKIP surge means tories lose seats… a primary school kid can understand this stuff.

  10. I am certain that the Conservatives will poll more votes than Labour because the Labour lead is currenly only a few percentage points.

    However, if the Conservatives are only 2% ahead Labour would still win more seats, due to the weighting of votes within the constituencies.

  11. “I am certain that the Conservatives will poll more votes than Labour because the Labour lead is currenly only a few percentage points”

    there’s nothing “certain” about this at all.

  12. Purely as a matter of interest Peter, you’re not the same Peter Crawford who was in the headlines a couple of years back for ripping up the koran in Leicester?

    I’m sure you’re not but just thought I’d check

  13. I do think that the conservatives will be polling ahead of labour by 2015.

    This far out to the 2010 election the tories led by 15 points , they only got a coalition. Labour are leading by 3 points at the moment, I highly doubt they’ll be polling ahead in the next election.

  14. no i am not a koran ripping nutter.

    the tory poll lead was halved from 2009 to 2010….but labour’s share of the vote didn’t go up much….the tory lead was dented by the spike in the lib dems’ performance…

    the addition of a 4th party UKIP, makes things much less volatile in a funny way. the polls so far this parliament have been much fairly steady, unlike the last parliament which saw much more volatility….

    I think labour could win the popular vote by 1% or 2%…the tories flatlining for a year now is ominous. also, as smithson always says, and he is head and shoulders above any other pundit in my book, the LD to labour switchers look very steady…

    The received opinion abt. GE2015 is that the tories will be ahead on Votes and Labour win on seats….i think this is based on quite bold assumptions of “swingback” and an economic feelgood factor a) continuing and b) leading to a further swing to the tories.

  15. ‘This far out to the 2010 election the tories led by 15 points’

    Whilst I agree with you that the Tories probably will be ahead of Labour by the tiume of the next election, the situations don’t compare

    In 2010 Labour had been in government for 13 years and had presided over the banking collapse of 2007-08

    Once the press go into campaign mode – and they will backing the Tories and UKIP and making highly personalised attacks on Milliband and Clegg – that’s when the Tories will start to recover – probably around the start of next year

    People on this site seem to assume that just bewcause they are not affected by what the press say, the same applies to the whole electorate

    This is far from the case

  16. That’s very true Tim. People forget how many people are still influenced by what they read in the papers.

  17. Interesting points , I think that the Ed Miliband will be thought of as an incapable leader , subsequently his vote will be damaged and he will bring the labour vote down with him.

    Had DAVID Miliband been the leader of the opposition now, things could have been very different by now…

  18. It is worth noting that the last month leading up to polling day – the official campaign period- usually favours the Opposition rather than the incumbent.On that basis, the Tories are likely to perform rather less well on May 7th 2015 than they would do at the beginning of April.

  19. I think the press’s direct influence on voting intention will be primarily limited to the Mail, Express, Sun and Mirror in 2015.

    I name them rather than say “the tabloids” because of the four The Mirror is the only one which is absolutely certain to go for a particular political party (Labour). The Sun could go for one of three parties, albeit most likely Conservative over Labour or (extremely left-field given their tendency to try and back the winner) UKIP, and with very differing degrees of likelihood the Mail and Express could conceivably go either UKIP or Tory.

    The broadsheets’ choice of party will be somewhat more straightforward, but in my opinion will also have less effect. While certainly at least as open-minded as readers of the tabloids, readers of the broadsheets are in my opinion somewhat less susceptible to sudden influence towards a party other than that they were initially leaning towards (with emphasis on the word sudden).

  20. Although in response to Graham’s points, 1966 and October 1979 are examples where a party either in minority or with a wafer thin majority did well during the campaign. Of course, doing so in a snap election is a very different thing to doing so when the election date was set years in advance.

  21. (October 1974, of course!)

  22. It’s not just that more people are influenced by the papers than you’d assume – it’s also that anybody who claims not to be influenced by the media either knows very little about current affairs or is deluding themselves. We’re all influenced to some degree by what we read.

    On a less abstract note, there’s no chance whatsoever that the Mail will back UKIP – look at how much it savaged them in 2013. It may like their politics, but it’s an establishment paper. The Express is an outside chance, but only because Desmond has no apparent political antennae.

  23. In practise you’re right about the Mail, but I’d say they’re 98% certain to back the Tories as opposed to 100%. Express something more like 80% to 20%.

  24. But on the broader point, the media, even the more overtly partisan elements of the press, are only the conduits.

    In a free and fair vote, people are not influenced as much by what they are told, as by what parts of that they do and don’t believe.

    Here’s an outrageous but relevant hypothetical situation. If 100 solid but not cast-iron certain Labour voters were incarcerated for non-partisan reasons for a year with no access to the outside world other than the right-leaning media, and were released at 21:30 on election night on the condition that they vote, there might be some effect on voting but not to the extent that I think many within politics would argue.

  25. ‘On a less abstract note, there’s no chance whatsoever that the Mail will back UKIP – look at how much it savaged them in 2013. It may like their politics, but it’s an establishment paper.’

    Are they?

    Whilst their approval of Hitler during the 1930s can be consigned to the past, their recent endorsement of the unquestionably racist National Front in the last French Presidential election really did represent a new low for the UK’s gutter press

    But whilst the influence of the tabloid press is diminishing, almost purely as a result of technology, intelligent people have an unfortunate habit of underestimating how much influence they still hold over a significant proportion of the electorate

  26. I think an interesting question is who the Guardian will back. They’ve been angling for the LDs for ages but if they like their readership to not throw a fit they’d be wise to back Labour. There’s a chance that they might not back anyone and make the Snowden civil liberties issues their main platform.

  27. That reminds me of a HIGNFY bit before the 2001 election, where Hislop pointed out that all the papers were preaching “vote Blair”, except the Telegraph, who having come to the conclusion that “vote Hague” might hurt their circulation instead led on a story which is tradtionally the domain of tabloids.

    His point was satirical of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me if The Guardian felt they were in a similar position come the campaign. Then again, they might just back Labour.

  28. I think the daily fail will definitely go tory.

    The scum SHOULD be tory but if it goes labour the times will follow as they’re all part of murdoch’s empire.

    The express surely won’t go labour, they should back the tories and if they back anyone else , it’ll be UKIP.

    The Mirror will obviously go labour.

    The toryraph will obviously go conservative.

    The independent and the i undeclared, as they are 95% of the time but if they do declare an allegiance it should be lib dem but possibly labour. They’ve printed many pro-labour headlines of late.

    The star might not even cover the election…

    the gaurdian? Lib dem or labour, we’ll see…

  29. “the gaurdian? Lib dem or labour, we’ll see…”

    Come back The Results, all is forgiven.

    You do realise that the Guardian are more likely to endorse the BNP in 2015 than the Lib Dems?

  30. Ditto The Independent and “I”

  31. The Sun and The Times will go Tory in 2015 but they don’t always ape each other

    In 97 The Sun declared itself for Blair but The Times endorsed Euroskeptic candidates – mostly but not all Tories

    It changed its tune in 2001 and declared Labour the ‘least worst’ of the two parties

    Let’s not fool ourselves though – both papers backed Labour for no other reason than that they knew Labour would win – with or without their support

    Both are natural Tory supporting newspapers and if any of them does dither from the script my money would be on The Sun, who have a disproportionately large UKIP-voting readership

  32. Thinking back to The Sun’s line around the European elections (that they will give the Tories a last chance but that Euroscepticism must be taken seriously), I’d be surprised if they didn’t back the Tories. The Sun would only back UKIP if they felt they felt that Labour would get a majority regardless of how hard they tried to push for the Tories over UKIP.

    Possible that The Times could advocate Eurosceptic tactical voting (which is effectively what they did in 97) but I doubt The Sun would seek to put out a potentially confusing message.

  33. love the casual assumption that the tories will rally to beat labour in votes at GE2015…i have been questioning this assumption for a while now. I can see a swingback of 1.5% for the tories, leaving them at 34.5%…I can also see labour falling back to 34%, but I think both of these scenarios happening together are less likely than not.

    On the other hand lab 35 con 34.5 is more likely…labour haven’t averaged much below 35% in 4 years. the tories haven’t had a monthly average above 34% for 2 years….anyway let’s see.

    Even if the tories squeeze UKIP, the labour 35% strategy looks fairly solid. Unless the tories can get a decent number of lab-con switchers they’re in trouble, unless the lib dems can get back some of their defectors to labour.

  34. As far as attracting Lab-Con switchers is concerned, is it conceivable that any gains the Tories might be able to make among swing-voting self employed and skilled workers offset any swing the other way from public sector middle class?

    Bearing in mind that much of the New Labour only vote would have left in 2010, is there a demographic with a significant potential to swing between those parties directly that I have missed out?

  35. some of the writing on this website is pretty bad…i think i have just about made out what you’re trying to say Chris Hornet…

  36. Whilst we are on the subject of ‘swing back’ (re: James Peel’s comment) I recently posted an update of my analysis of historical trends to try and ascertain what the latest data portends about the likely result in 2015.

    I posted this on the “Labour Targets” thread yesterday – to coincide with it being 9 months until General Election day – but for some reason Anthony is refusing to publish it. (At the time of typing these words it’s still showing up as “awaiting moderation”, even though AW has since come onto this site and posted another front page article).

    So (and assuming he’s not going to block this post too) here are the basics of the findings: the estimated swing back is now 4% to the Tories – and as the current rolling average is giving Labour a 4% lead that implies a 4% lead for the Tories in May 2015.

    This is down from the projected 7% Tory lead which was yielded by this analysis a month ago.The fall in the projected Tory lead since last month is due to a combination of a slightly smaller ‘swing back’ (as implied by what the polls were saying nine months out during the other eight post-war Tory parliaments) combined with a marginally smaller Tory lead in the current rolling average of voting intentions.

    All eight previous post-war Tory parliaments showed a positive swing-back to the Conservatives from the point nine months before the election to the actual subsequent election result – though the extent of the swing varied wildly. In only one of the eight parliaments was the swing back of a magnitude that would, if applied to today’s VI data, be enough to give the Tories an overall majority of seats. However, most of the swing backs would at least give them a plurality of votes (and roughly half of them a plurality of seats).

    Whether the diminishing projected Tory lead is indicative of a trend or not, I honestly don’t know. I wouldn’t bank on it because to be frank last month’s data may have been somewhat distorted by a ‘rogue poll’ (always a possibility as we are dealing with what is, in effect, only eight data points) but obviously we will have to see what the situation is in a month’s time.

    This is, by the way, the third simulation I have done. The first, conducted by me in November 2012 (to coincide with the mid-point of the current parliament) yielded a projected Tory lead of only 1% for May 2015.

    For the record, I have absolutely no control over any of this data – all I do it refer to the historical polling information and process the data in order to achieve the end projection. It does not necessarily reflect what I personally think will happen, by the way – it merely reflects historical precedent.

    Hope that’s of some use.

  37. ^^^^ “combined with a marginally smaller Tory lead in the current rolling average of voting intentions” – or, put another way, a marginally bigger Labour lead.

  38. rh

    this was the basis of the stephen fisher model…his model is showing currently that the tories will have 299 and labour 295 seats. Back in October he thought the tories would have a majority…no doubt his model in 3 months’ time will show labour most like to have the most seats, which is where i am now…i have always thought labour would get between 300 and 330 seats and nothing has changed my mind…no doubt all these fancy models will, i hate to say it, be more aligned with each other and my way of thinking over the next few months.

    As many people have said, this parliament is unlike any we have ever seen before.

  39. “… his model is showing currently that the tories will have 299 and labour 295 seats.”

    That’s interesting because my model is giving LABOUR a 4-seat plurality. To quote one passage from my latest esteemed thesis (still awaiting moderation by Anthony)…

    “The latest poll of polls shown on the front page gives the Conservatives a lead of -4%. On this basis the ‘swing back’ implied by historical precedent would be enough to give them a +3.62% lead in the May 2015 General Election.
    This would mean they would very narrowly fail to maintain a plurality of parliamentary seats – in fact their deficit would be four (exactly the same as in February 1974).”

    So how come we are coming up with slightly differing results, I hear you ask? Well, it’s simple: the Fisher model looks at the recovery of ALL governing parties (whether Tory or Labour) whereas mine only looks at what historical precedent tells us about the Tory ones.

    By the way, for the record I personally think the Tories will win a plurality of both votes AND seats – but not an overall majority. That’s not based on historical precedent by the way – that’s just based on gut feeling.

  40. One more thing: I don’t wish to accuse anyone of plagiarism but I first conducted the swing back analysis back in November 2012 – and here is the link to prove it…

    The first I heard of this Fisher bloke was when he popped up on the Daily Politics show a few months ago.

    Maybe he did it before me, I don’t know, but I certainly hadn’t heard of him until much more recently than 2012.

  41. Looking at some of the polls of the marginal seats they do look pretty promising for the tories. I doubt labour will take many seats off them however some seats are surely doomed to fall to labour.

    I think we can all agree there’s no taking anything for certain in 2015…

  42. I think the following is possible next year-
    Conservative- 33%
    Labour- 34%
    Liberal Democrat- 11%
    UKIP- 10%

    I’m not saying it WILL happen, but given the still likely defections to UKIP I think the Conservatives could still lose votes. Also, the Lib Dems will be doing well just to get 10% I think, so if they have a bad night which they may well do, I would expect Labour to pick up from any collapse they do have.

    If Labour were to finish 1% ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote, I’m not sure if they’d end up with the most seats, but what would be likely would be another Hung Parliament I think.

    Conversely, if the result was something like this next year-
    Conservative- 35%
    Labour- 34%
    Liberal Democrat- 11%
    UKIP- 10%

    I think the same would still apply to the Tories. We’d be in deadlock once again and we’d be looking at another period of political instability, but who knows?

  43. “Come back The Results, all is forgiven.”

    You really should not have said that

  44. Dr John…
    the arithmetic doesn’t work for both parties to have fewer than “280 seats or so”..
    i have shown this ad infinitum.

  45. I think you’re being very unfair to me Pete 🙂

    I’m here to stay, anyway, whether you like it or not…

  46. Perhaps not quite 280 seats Peter, but it is certainly quite conceivable that both major parties could be in the 285-290 range. That would be deep deadlock in my view.

    For example:

    Labour 285
    Conservative 285
    Lib Dem 40
    Others 40

  47. I think his point is reasonable…

  48. If Pete Whitehead is hoping to get rid of me, he’s not going to succeed.

    I’ve got as every right to post on here as anyone else has, so I don’t see what right it gives him to rubbish me for daring to post on here again.

    I don’t know why you’re so horrible to me Pete, it’s not fair at all. I don’t deserve it.

  49. yes. both on 280 is almost impossible…others will be about 30…you have a speaker, 18 NI seats (which doesn’t change) 3 PC 6 SNP 1 Green…

    there’s no reason to think others will be substantially more than 32 or, at a push, 33…unless you’re seeing 5+ gains for UKIP…

    the number of labour and conservative seats combined will be 580+ so 290 apiece.

  50. It’s going to be very very close either way, that much is for certain.

    But if Sinn Fein get five MPs again or however many, they won’t go to Westminster as they are abstentionist.

    I think in the end we’ll see some sort of minority govrnement in the short-term, be it Tory or Labour. I just don’t see how we can really have another coaltion TBH.

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