Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 444 Responses on “Conservative Defence”

    Labour can make a different argument to the Tories. They can also twist the knife in the Tories.

    I would guess Labour’s order of priorities would be:

    Completely wreck the Tory Party. > Stay in EU. > Get rid of Cameron.

  2. Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn will dominate the Labour campaign… Corbyn is not at all good on this subject and Remain would be well advised to keep his appearances to a minimum… his response in the Commons today, not catching the mood at all by banging on about workers rights, TTIP and so on, was a perfect demonstration of why he shouldn’t be used very much.

    Not sure parties on the same platform is quite the issue it was in Scotland. If indeed it was a problem in Scotland – I think the problem was less that Labour voters were outraged by their party sharing a platform with the Scottish Tories (who weren’t that prominent in the campaign anyway), but rather that the whole political system was realigned along unionist-nationalist lines and Labour, having been united behind the union, offered little to the latter. I don’t think the EU will cause a realignment, though there is undoubtedly some potential for UKIP to benefit.


    The issues raised by Corbyn are those which are important to the left. The referendum will be fought across the whole country, not just the 35% or so who voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. It is the other 65% who will decide it.

  4. @Hawthorn

    They did nothing for making the case to stay in the EU though. There are plenty of other occasions for landing blows on Cameron, this referendum isn’t it. He’d have done much better to make some jokes about Boris’s two referendum argument and about the fact that some parts of the renegotiation were in the Labour manifesto, to echo Cameron’s points about security etc., to ask a few probing questions about the detail and perhaps then to briefly touch on how Labour value the social chapter etc.

  5. CON + UKIP was 49% or 15.2m (11.3m + 3.9m).

    The electorate will be c. 47m. Turnout expected to be c. 60%.

    So on that basis either side need half of 28m.

  6. Con + UKIP received 50.7% in Britain. Northern Ireland brought the percentage down to 49%.

  7. We have the first guess at turnout – PADDY POWER have got their line at 60.5%.

    However odds on offer are: 8/13 UNDER & 6/5 OVER.

  8. Deepthroat

    I am including people who did not vote in 2015 and who are still affected. My figures are rough.

  9. Ok – sorry. What’s your guess at turnout – I am always optimistic about people voting and correctly guessed very early on that % turnout would be at least 75% in the Scottish indy ref.

    Could the EU ref be similarly participative? No – don’t believe we’ll get +80%, but I am confident it’ll be + 60%. This is a referendum like no other one before it & there are a few examples of very high turnouts in independence referendums (which this one essentially is).

  10. One really wonders at the fate of openly Eurosceptic MPs who suddenly switch for In. They can surely expect a chunk of their votes to go UKIP in 2020… that is if there is a UKIP in 2020…(presuming a pro-Brexit result kills UKIP)

    By my count three avowedly Eurosceptic backbenchers have gone for Remain on the basis of “backing their PM”.

  11. Well the first hurdle for those MPs to overcome will be to avoid deselection by their associations.

  12. I expect the biggest dilemma is for new MPs who told their selection meeting that they were Eurosceptic and would vote to leave on current terms, but who in reality are not particularly fussed by Europe and would rather back the PM. Hard for them to claim the renegotiation as grounds for voting In.

  13. Perhaps the mandatory reselection threat due to the MP reduction to 600 is concentrating some minds on the Tory backbenches.

    If so, it serves Cameron right.

  14. ‘One really wonders at the fate of openly Eurosceptic MPs who suddenly switch for In. ‘

    Hardline reactionary right-winger blogger Paul Staines has compiled such a list and labels Mark Pritchard – one of the two dozen or so Tories expected to back Brexit but who’s come out the other way – a “sell out”

    I think such MPs will have a lot of explaining to do to their staunchly Eurosceptic local associations, many of whom prize dislike of the EU considerably higher than loyalty to a Conservative Prime Minister

  15. Riddle me this…. firstly Cameron has promised new intake a seat if they want it.. but he may not be around to make good on it.. will Boris or another leader feel they need to make good on DC’s promise?

    Then, if an MP came out to Remain to keep the PM happy but is delegated to run in a surviving seat that has an Association that is hot for Brexit, how well is that going to go down with selectors?

  16. Loyalty to the party if in government used to be paramount to Tory Associations – certainly more so than with their Labour counterparts

    The EU is one such subject they are equally emotive about – making it interesting times, not least for those MPs that are caught in the middle of a classic ‘Catch 22’

    I guess this is where knowing your local association inside-out really pays off

  17. Has Cameron actually promised people a seat post-boundary review, or has he just said something about doing all that he can and so on? I wouldn’t have thought he could impose candidates on local associations, which he’d need to do to fulfil that promise.

  18. I see at least twenty non-retirement age Tory MPs heading for the dustbin of history.

    One thing is to do a chicken run as a high profile MP or Minister and another is to try to get repositioned when your seat of Barchester West gets the chop and you have done little except ask three PMQs in the last five years.

    No profile, no incumbency, no love (and maybe having supported Remain).. its cold out there…

  19. And for those who think I am unfairly singling out George Hollingbery.. he does serve on the APPG on Angling and the APPG of Gardening..

  20. Get ready for the pre-1997 scramble for seats all over again!

  21. Usually things sort themselves out with boundary reviews and finding seats. Admittedly the overall seat cut will make it tougher, but still neighbouring retirements should ensure almost all incumbents that have their seat abolished will get one (some may end up with a worse seat but on average Tories will be more likely to end up with a better seat). In 2015 many MPs not of retirement age retired, and I expect that will be the same in 2020, so there will be enough vacancies.

    Of course Cameron has no ability to ‘promise’ anything… it will be up to the local associations.

  22. Of course! He’s only saying that to keep backbenchers on side.

  23. Well, Jack, keep telling them that… and they can take another Xanax while they are at it..

    A number of MPs that thought they would be toast retired in the 2010-2015 cycle. There are not exactly flocks of Tories nearing retirement age.

    This neighbouring seats thing is bogus. As I pointed out in Pembrokeshire, two non-retirement age Tories will be fighting it out to see who survives and there is no nearby seat for one of them to decamp to.

    Some male MPs might also find themselves at a disadvantage to female MPs… and then there is the issue of Tories that fall out with their associations over Brexit.

    As the McDonald’s slogan goes “I’m loving it”…

  24. I said ‘almost all’. And your Pembrokeshire example is not insolvable. On the 2011 aborted review boundaries Stephen Crabb would get to the better seat of Pembrokeshire South, but Simon Hart would still be able to contest the new creation of Caerfryddin which would become a three-way marginal. I am not saying that no MPs will miss out, just that it is unlikely that many will.

  25. …where he will have to duke it out with Chris Davies for selection…

    Tory extinction in Wales is in sight..

  26. Chris Davies would presumably keep Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery, with Glyn Davies going to Denbigh and Montgomeryshire North if he doesn’t retire (admittedly a downgrade , as this is a very different seat with LAB strength which is completely lacking in the current Montgomeryshire).

    All of this on the 2011 aborted review boundaries, of course. They may be different this time.

  27. And you are presuming they hold/win these….

  28. They may not but they would still have seats which are winnable.

  29. Turmoil everywhere!!

    Is anyone expecting an October General election?

    Or is April / May more likely? or can Johnson or May carry on without a fresh public mandate?

  30. I don’t know about a GE. I would love to see if there has been a political re-alignment a la the Scottish referendum. Imagine if we get something seismic like that STV poll from October 2014

  31. May would seem most likely. Keeps the consistency and gives new PM time to settle in.

  32. Cant see an October election. The new Tory leader wont be in place till the end of September. Maybe November or March/May( Easter is Mid April so two weeks of April are out because elections during Holiday times never seem to happen).
    All depends really on what the polls say. If an increased Tory Majority looks certain then they will be one. If there is much of a risk of a hung parliament or even relying on the DUP/UUP then no.

  33. I agree with that. I don’t see any Tory leader going to the polls unless they can be sure of victory. Look what happened to Heath in 1974, had a majority and voluntarily called an election and lost.
    I don’t think there’ll be an election

  34. I wouldn’t rule out an election but only think it will happen if the following two things are true:

    1/ Polls suggest the Conservatives would win a landslide
    2/ The government needs more Brexit supporting MPs to get its policies through.

    The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is also not as easily got round as is sometimes suggested. Could a 2/3 majority for an election be found? Whilst you might imagine Labour have to back such a motion on the off chance of winning the election it could be turkeys voting for Christmas. The ‘no confidence yourself’ option (which would only need a majority) is sometimes also floated, but would look very weird and it is uncertain all Tories would support it.

    I certainly think this year is very unlikely as you’d be looking at November/December by the time a new Tory leader is in place, and that assumes they go to the country instantly. If there is a fresh election I think we’d be looking at next May.

  35. Yes I think 2017 is more likely, but again the polls would have to show the possibility of a Tory landslide.

  36. JS : But a May 16 GE gives Jarvis or Watson or whoever gain credibility and traction. I thinks it’s a November 4th election. I know that looks odd as we don’t have elections other than in May or October right? However, It could easily be sooner why not September,?– backbench Tories triggering a Ldrship election in the next 2 mnths

    Re: could be repealed. But again the numbers are a headache to tot up.

  37. Repeal, strictly speaking, actually wouldn’t work as that would leave no rules for the duration of parliaments at all. New legislation allowing the PM to call an election whenever whilst making five-years only a maximum again could be passed but it would have to go through the Lords who would likely delay it, and a majority for it in the Commons would also be uncertain.

    If you put yourself in the shoes of the MP for, say, Derby North I don’t think you’d be very keen on a fresh election. Even if polls say the majority would increase polls have often been wrong of late and you’d be worried about losing.

  38. It’s not certain they’ll win so I don’t see it happening unless they’re sure of victory

  39. This is how I understand the FTPA and some implications of it:
    Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber. The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.

    Surely this means BJOHNSON – if elected leader can’t lose. Either way he wins. He call for a vote of confidence in his new govt, if he gets it he carries on. If he loses he gets a general election.

  40. Btw I think Johnson as leader has a 75% chance of getting a seat majority in HoC

  41. Will there be a political re-alignment after this referendum like there was in Scotland after the Scottish referendum?

  42. There’s now a good chance of one (or more) new party being formed.

  43. I heard on the Marr show that 1/3 of Labour’s GE 2015 voters are saying they won’t vote for them at the next election? Where will those votes go if Labour lose them? UKIP? A new party?

    A new party could quite conceivably be formed. I’ve been thinking something like 1981 could happen now. If Corbyn is forced into a leadership battle and wins I expect something like the Limhouse Declaration and a new party to be formed.

  44. With UKIP falling apart, the Leave the EU voters will be likely to vote Tory and the remainers Lib Dem.

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