Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 474 Responses on “Conservative Defence”
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  1. LDs expected strongly to get 12 or 13 seats according to betting markets. Under 10 seats total was a big long shot 3 weeks ago – around 12/1 but is now around 7/4 or 2/1. My own guess is 8.

    HST I have been told by a Lib Dem local that Richmond Park is looking ok for them and Sarah Olney is popular and the seat could easily be gained from the Tories.

  2. Convo for LibDem defence/targets really, but,

    My only confidences are:
    HOLDS: 5 (Ceredigion, Westmorland, Orkney, Leeds NW, Hallam)
    LOSSES: 3 (Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton)
    GAINS: 2 (Cambridge, Edinburgh West)
    I think Twickenham and East Dunbartonshire are very likely imo.
    North East Fife positive fence sitter, Kingston negative fence-sitters, & Richmond Park no real idea tending negative.
    The rest inc. Bermondsey, Bath, other SW, Lewes, Eastbourne etc, X% behind but no cigar (Bermondsey potentially XX% behind).
    If I had to pick a number (…which I did for Freebet use purposes 2 days ago): 10 seats.

    Though the Conservatives are clearly doing worse now at this very moment, in terms of the straight fights with the LibDems,
    By polling day I think not just the existing damage from having a single-issue fringe position on the EU, & Farron general Spaniel-smelling lack of appeal, but the other things like scrapping Prevent (bad), having civil liberties (good, but unpopular), former prominent pro-refugee positioning (usually this is re-phrased from basically ‘always more than whatever the government is doing’)… these (plus some more tax & legal weed) will additionally hamper the ability to gain pluralities particularly when facing Tory incumbents.

  3. Yes wrong thread tbh

  4. Apart from the Remain vote and maybe the local election results I can’t see why St Albans is no.4

  5. A lot of money seems to have been piled on St Albans and it’s not obvious to me why.

    It was 13/2 when I originally looked at it as a possible value bet shortly after the election was called, and I regret taking it. It can hardly be said that the Lib Dems have shown signs of a surge since. Yes, the Conservative-Labour battleground seems to have tightened up, but for the LDs to be on course to do what was (quite reasonably) believed to be possible in Remain constituencies their own share would surely need to be higher than it has consistently remained at?

  6. With Jeremy Corbyn at 38% in the polls, it’s obvious that the Lib Dems don’t have a hope in Cambridge, and will in all probability lose further ground to the Tories with a surge in Labour votes in places like Bath and Kingston.

  7. “Yes, the Conservative-Labour battleground seems to have tightened up, but for the LDs to be on course to do what was (quite reasonably) believed to be possible in Remain constituencies their own share would surely need to be higher than it has consistently remained at?”

    The Remain vote is lining up behind Corbyn and leaving the Lib Dems totally bereft. It’s one of the few silver linings for the Tories of the Labour poll surge, it will decimate the Lib Dem chances almost everywhere.

  8. Has it I can’t see where that money has gone

  9. I don’t think 38% will be the Labour share; that poll seems a bit of a fluke. Also worth noting it also had the LDs up, so I’m a bit at a loss by it overall.

    As for Remainers going to Corbyn… c’mon, man! He’s probably personally as pro-Brexit as May.

  10. There’s some analysis on the latest YouGov by EU referendum vote:

    REMAIN VOTERS
    Lab 50%
    Con 26%
    LibDem 16%
    SNP or PC 6%
    Green 2%
    UKIP 1%

    LEAVE VOTERS
    Con 63%
    Lab 23%
    UKIP 7%
    LibDem 3%
    SNP or PC 3%
    Green 1%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf

  11. Apparently torries internal polling backs up the tightening of the race and that the thinking is a 50-85 seat majority is the most likely outcome. And that Thressa May could face a challenge if she doesnt win a majority of more than 100. Source is a friend who has been speaking to well connected sources.

  12. Having campaigned in both Richmond Park and Twickenham for the Lib Dems, I would say that the former is too close to call at present, but Vince Cable has an excellent chance of getting back in the latter. He only lost in 2015 because of the scare around the potential Milliband / Scot Nat coalition imho.

    Richmond Park is very interesting because of the self-harm committed by Zac Goldsmith over the by-election, Brexit and his disastrous London Mayoralty campaign. Whereas in 2010 and 2015 he appeared an exciting and rather glamorous new-style politico, he now looks to my neighbours as an unprincipled self-seeking hack.He should not fail to regain this seat, but he might just do so!

  13. Matt Wilson – bookies set initial odds. Those odds generally move according to what punters bet in order to ensure the books remain balanced. It’s not *quite* as black-and-white as that, but there has been no game-changing moment in recent weeks which would prompt bookies to pro-actively slash LD odds.

    St Albans has, according to bookmakers, become a much better Lib Dem prospect than it was four or five weeks ago. This is clearly nonsense based on the Lib Dem vote going nowhere, and therefore the only explanation is money going on it.

  14. Exiled: I agree generally — unless someone knows something the rest of the world doesn’t, which is almost never the case.

  15. I expect the St Albans bets are because Farron has been twice and the locals. But Lib Dem local results in Herts are never remotely matched in GEs.

  16. “Thressa May could face a challenge if she doesn’t win a majority of more than 100.”

    Well der. Theresa May put all her eggs in the leadership basket and they ended up on her face (if you’ll excuse the torturously mixed metaphor), Which, in the not-as-certain-as-it-once-was scenario that the Tories do get over the line, would utterly destroy the point in having the election, as once again the Conservatives would have a PM hamstrung by a former leader’s mandate.

  17. And if she loses her majority – are we talking worst PM in history? At least since Chamberlain, surely.

  18. S. Telegraph 28may: “Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.

    Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.

    The Tories are on 44% of the vote with Labour on 38%. The Liberal Democrats are on 7% while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.

    It marks a dramatic turnaround….”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

  19. It now appears to me that Labour are going to pick off, rather patchily, a few seats from their target list. and that this may cost the Tories their majority. It looks like Labour will hold most of what they already have.

    It may be important whether the Conservatives are able to pick up seats in Scotland, and whether they are able to hold onto Tory/LibDem marginals, several of which appear to be on a knife-edge..

    In response to Politroll, the nearest to the current situation is 1923, when Bonar Law went to the electorate over free trade and lost his majority.

  20. It was Baldwin who lost in ’23.

  21. Conservative to Labour seats 2017:
    Battersea
    Bedford
    Brighton Kemptown
    Bristol North West
    Bury North
    Canterbury
    Cardiff North
    Colne Valley
    Crewe and Nantwich
    Croydon Central
    Derby North
    Enfield Southgate
    Gower
    High Peak
    Ipswich
    Keighley
    Kensington
    Lincoln
    Peterborough
    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Portsmouth South
    Reading East
    Stockton South
    Stroud
    Vale of Clwyd
    Warrington South
    Warwick and Leamington
    Weaver Vale

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