Conservative Defence List

These are the hundred and fifty Conservative seats with the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most vulnerable Conservative seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Conservative party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Eastbourne Majority 733 (1.4%)
10. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
11. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Majority 798 (1.5%)
12. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
13. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
14. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
15. Lewes Majority 1083 (2.1%)
16. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
17. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
18. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
19. Thornbury & Yate Majority 1495 (3.1%)
20. Twickenham Majority 2017 (3.3%)
21. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
22. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
23. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
24. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
25. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
26. Kingston & Surbiton Majority 2834 (4.7%)
27. St Ives Majority 2469 (5.1%)
28. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
29. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
30. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
31. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
32. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
33. Torbay Majority 3286 (6.9%)
34. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
35. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
36. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
37. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
38. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
39. Sutton & Cheam Majority 3921 (7.8%)
40. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
41. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
42. Bath Majority 3833 (8.1%)
43. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
44. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
45. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
46. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
47. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
48. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
49. Yeovil Majority 5313 (9.4%)
50. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
51. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
52. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
53. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
54. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
55. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
56. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
57. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
58. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
59. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
60. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
61. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
62. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
63. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
64. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
65. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
66. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
67. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
68. Colchester Majority 5575 (11.4%)
69. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
70. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
71. Cheadle Majority 6453 (12.1%)
72. Cheltenham Majority 6516 (12.1%)
73. Berwick-upon-Tweed Majority 4914 (12.2%)
74. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
75. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
76. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)
77. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
78. Brecon & Radnorshire Majority 5102 (12.8%)
79. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
80. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
81. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
82. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
83. North Devon Majority 6936 (13.3%)
84. Wells Majority 7585 (13.3%)
85. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
86. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
87. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
88. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
89. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
90. North Cornwall Majority 6621 (13.8%)
91. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
92. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
93. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
94. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
95. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
96. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
97. Hazel Grove Majority 6552 (15.2%)
98. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
99. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
100. Montgomeryshire Majority 5325 (15.7%)
101. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
102. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)
103. Eastleigh Majority 9147 (16.5%)
104. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
105. Oxford West & Abingdon Majority 9582 (16.8%)
106. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
107. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
108. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
109. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
110. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
111. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
112. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
113. Chippenham Majority 10076 (18.2%)
114. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
115. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
116. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
117. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
118. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
119. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
120. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
121. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
122. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
123. Bosworth Majority 10988 (20.5%)
124. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
125. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
126. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
127. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
128. Maidstone & The Weald Majority 10709 (21.4%)
129. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
130. North West Leicestershire Majority 11373 (22.1%)
131. Forest of Dean Majority 10987 (22.2%)
132. Gillingham & Rainham Majority 10530 (22.4%)
133. East Devon Majority 18531 (22.4%)
134. North Swindon Majority 11786 (22.5%)
135. South Derbyshire Majority 11471 (22.6%)
136. Mid Dorset and North Poole Majority 10530 (22.6%)
137. Burton Majority 11252 (22.8%)
138. Monmouth Majority 10982 (23.1%)
139. Beverley & Holderness Majority 12203 (23.1%)
140. Portsmouth North Majority 10537 (23.2%)
141. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
142. St Albans Majority 12732 (23.3%)
143. Newton Abbot Majority 11288 (23.4%)
144. Solihull Majority 12902 (23.5%)
145. Dartford Majority 12345 (23.6%)
146. Hornchurch & Upminster Majority 13074 (23.7%)
147. The Wrekin Majority 10743 (23.7%)
148. Putney Majority 10180 (23.8%)
149. Uxbridge & Ruislip South Majority 10695 (23.8%)
150. Tamworth Majority 11302 (23.9%)
Comments - 474 Responses on “Conservative Defence”
  1. ‘One really wonders at the fate of openly Eurosceptic MPs who suddenly switch for In. ‘

    Hardline reactionary right-winger blogger Paul Staines has compiled such a list and labels Mark Pritchard – one of the two dozen or so Tories expected to back Brexit but who’s come out the other way – a “sell out”

    I think such MPs will have a lot of explaining to do to their staunchly Eurosceptic local associations, many of whom prize dislike of the EU considerably higher than loyalty to a Conservative Prime Minister

  2. Riddle me this…. firstly Cameron has promised new intake a seat if they want it.. but he may not be around to make good on it.. will Boris or another leader feel they need to make good on DC’s promise?

    Then, if an MP came out to Remain to keep the PM happy but is delegated to run in a surviving seat that has an Association that is hot for Brexit, how well is that going to go down with selectors?

  3. Loyalty to the party if in government used to be paramount to Tory Associations – certainly more so than with their Labour counterparts

    The EU is one such subject they are equally emotive about – making it interesting times, not least for those MPs that are caught in the middle of a classic ‘Catch 22’

    I guess this is where knowing your local association inside-out really pays off

  4. Has Cameron actually promised people a seat post-boundary review, or has he just said something about doing all that he can and so on? I wouldn’t have thought he could impose candidates on local associations, which he’d need to do to fulfil that promise.

  5. I see at least twenty non-retirement age Tory MPs heading for the dustbin of history.

    One thing is to do a chicken run as a high profile MP or Minister and another is to try to get repositioned when your seat of Barchester West gets the chop and you have done little except ask three PMQs in the last five years.

    No profile, no incumbency, no love (and maybe having supported Remain).. its cold out there…

  6. And for those who think I am unfairly singling out George Hollingbery.. he does serve on the APPG on Angling and the APPG of Gardening..

  7. Usually things sort themselves out with boundary reviews and finding seats. Admittedly the overall seat cut will make it tougher, but still neighbouring retirements should ensure almost all incumbents that have their seat abolished will get one (some may end up with a worse seat but on average Tories will be more likely to end up with a better seat). In 2015 many MPs not of retirement age retired, and I expect that will be the same in 2020, so there will be enough vacancies.

    Of course Cameron has no ability to ‘promise’ anything… it will be up to the local associations.

  8. Well, Jack, keep telling them that… and they can take another Xanax while they are at it..

    A number of MPs that thought they would be toast retired in the 2010-2015 cycle. There are not exactly flocks of Tories nearing retirement age.

    This neighbouring seats thing is bogus. As I pointed out in Pembrokeshire, two non-retirement age Tories will be fighting it out to see who survives and there is no nearby seat for one of them to decamp to.

    Some male MPs might also find themselves at a disadvantage to female MPs… and then there is the issue of Tories that fall out with their associations over Brexit.

    As the McDonald’s slogan goes “I’m loving it”…

  9. I said ‘almost all’. And your Pembrokeshire example is not insolvable. On the 2011 aborted review boundaries Stephen Crabb would get to the better seat of Pembrokeshire South, but Simon Hart would still be able to contest the new creation of Caerfryddin which would become a three-way marginal. I am not saying that no MPs will miss out, just that it is unlikely that many will.

  10. …where he will have to duke it out with Chris Davies for selection…

    Tory extinction in Wales is in sight..

  11. Chris Davies would presumably keep Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery, with Glyn Davies going to Denbigh and Montgomeryshire North if he doesn’t retire (admittedly a downgrade , as this is a very different seat with LAB strength which is completely lacking in the current Montgomeryshire).

    All of this on the 2011 aborted review boundaries, of course. They may be different this time.

  12. And you are presuming they hold/win these….

  13. They may not but they would still have seats which are winnable.

  14. Turmoil everywhere!!

    Is anyone expecting an October General election?

    Or is April / May more likely? or can Johnson or May carry on without a fresh public mandate?

  15. May would seem most likely. Keeps the consistency and gives new PM time to settle in.

  16. Cant see an October election. The new Tory leader wont be in place till the end of September. Maybe November or March/May( Easter is Mid April so two weeks of April are out because elections during Holiday times never seem to happen).
    All depends really on what the polls say. If an increased Tory Majority looks certain then they will be one. If there is much of a risk of a hung parliament or even relying on the DUP/UUP then no.

  17. I wouldn’t rule out an election but only think it will happen if the following two things are true:

    1/ Polls suggest the Conservatives would win a landslide
    2/ The government needs more Brexit supporting MPs to get its policies through.

    The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is also not as easily got round as is sometimes suggested. Could a 2/3 majority for an election be found? Whilst you might imagine Labour have to back such a motion on the off chance of winning the election it could be turkeys voting for Christmas. The ‘no confidence yourself’ option (which would only need a majority) is sometimes also floated, but would look very weird and it is uncertain all Tories would support it.

    I certainly think this year is very unlikely as you’d be looking at November/December by the time a new Tory leader is in place, and that assumes they go to the country instantly. If there is a fresh election I think we’d be looking at next May.

  18. JS : But a May 16 GE gives Jarvis or Watson or whoever gain credibility and traction. I thinks it’s a November 4th election. I know that looks odd as we don’t have elections other than in May or October right? However, It could easily be sooner why not September,?– backbench Tories triggering a Ldrship election in the next 2 mnths

    Re: FTPA..it could be repealed. But again the numbers are a headache to tot up.

  19. Repeal, strictly speaking, actually wouldn’t work as that would leave no rules for the duration of parliaments at all. New legislation allowing the PM to call an election whenever whilst making five-years only a maximum again could be passed but it would have to go through the Lords who would likely delay it, and a majority for it in the Commons would also be uncertain.

    If you put yourself in the shoes of the MP for, say, Derby North I don’t think you’d be very keen on a fresh election. Even if polls say the majority would increase polls have often been wrong of late and you’d be worried about losing.

  20. This is how I understand the FTPA and some implications of it:
    Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber. The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.

    Surely this means BJOHNSON – if elected leader can’t lose. Either way he wins. He call for a vote of confidence in his new govt, if he gets it he carries on. If he loses he gets a general election.

  21. Btw I think Johnson as leader has a 75% chance of getting a seat majority in HoC

  22. There’s now a good chance of one (or more) new party being formed.

  23. With UKIP falling apart, the Leave the EU voters will be likely to vote Tory and the remainers Lib Dem.

  24. May I commend the posters on here that predicted a May election? Admittedly a week out, but still impressive forecasting!

  25. The FTPA was the biggest waste of legislation. It took abt. 110 minutes to rescind . A 90 minute debate followed by a single vote. A lunch time’s work!

  26. Anything from no seats lost at all, to 10 or so being lost.

  27. ANOTHERWORLD:
    “May I commend the posters on here that predicted a May election? ”

    Yes; BM11, JS and DEEPTHROAT all seemed to realise how easy it was to get around the FTPA. It seems we had/have a fixed term parliament – but not if the govt has a slender majority AND is riding high in the polls.

    I’m not a constitutional expert. What could stop the new government from creating a fixed term parliament of 10 years?. 20 years?

  28. This list isn’t much help in identifying the most likely seats to be lost – all of which are LibDem targets such as Twickenham and Bath.

    The bookies odds (7/4 LD gain) imply that the Tories are more likely to lose St Albans on a 14%+ swing than the ‘most vulnerable’ seat of Derby North where Labour are 4/1.

  29. Twickenham is actually the only Tory-held seat where they are not favourites. Looking at the leading challenger’s odds rather than majority sizes, the most vulnerable appear to be:

    Twickenham (4/9)
    Lewes (5/4)
    Eastbourne (11/8)
    St Albans (7/4)
    Thornbury and Yate (7/4)
    Bath (15/8)
    Cheltenham (5/2)
    Brighton Kempton (5/2)

  30. LDs expected strongly to get 12 or 13 seats according to betting markets. Under 10 seats total was a big long shot 3 weeks ago – around 12/1 but is now around 7/4 or 2/1. My own guess is 8.

    HST I have been told by a Lib Dem local that Richmond Park is looking ok for them and Sarah Olney is popular and the seat could easily be gained from the Tories.

  31. Convo for LibDem defence/targets really, but,

    My only confidences are:
    HOLDS: 5 (Ceredigion, Westmorland, Orkney, Leeds NW, Hallam)
    LOSSES: 3 (Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton)
    GAINS: 2 (Cambridge, Edinburgh West)
    I think Twickenham and East Dunbartonshire are very likely imo.
    North East Fife positive fence sitter, Kingston negative fence-sitters, & Richmond Park no real idea tending negative.
    The rest inc. Bermondsey, Bath, other SW, Lewes, Eastbourne etc, X% behind but no cigar (Bermondsey potentially XX% behind).
    If I had to pick a number (…which I did for Freebet use purposes 2 days ago): 10 seats.

    Though the Conservatives are clearly doing worse now at this very moment, in terms of the straight fights with the LibDems,
    By polling day I think not just the existing damage from having a single-issue fringe position on the EU, & Farron general Spaniel-smelling lack of appeal, but the other things like scrapping Prevent (bad), having civil liberties (good, but unpopular), former prominent pro-refugee positioning (usually this is re-phrased from basically ‘always more than whatever the government is doing’)… these (plus some more tax & legal weed) will additionally hamper the ability to gain pluralities particularly when facing Tory incumbents.

  32. Yes wrong thread tbh

  33. Apart from the Remain vote and maybe the local election results I can’t see why St Albans is no.4

  34. A lot of money seems to have been piled on St Albans and it’s not obvious to me why.

    It was 13/2 when I originally looked at it as a possible value bet shortly after the election was called, and I regret taking it. It can hardly be said that the Lib Dems have shown signs of a surge since. Yes, the Conservative-Labour battleground seems to have tightened up, but for the LDs to be on course to do what was (quite reasonably) believed to be possible in Remain constituencies their own share would surely need to be higher than it has consistently remained at?

  35. With Jeremy Corbyn at 38% in the polls, it’s obvious that the Lib Dems don’t have a hope in Cambridge, and will in all probability lose further ground to the Tories with a surge in Labour votes in places like Bath and Kingston.

  36. “Yes, the Conservative-Labour battleground seems to have tightened up, but for the LDs to be on course to do what was (quite reasonably) believed to be possible in Remain constituencies their own share would surely need to be higher than it has consistently remained at?”

    The Remain vote is lining up behind Corbyn and leaving the Lib Dems totally bereft. It’s one of the few silver linings for the Tories of the Labour poll surge, it will decimate the Lib Dem chances almost everywhere.

  37. Has it I can’t see where that money has gone

  38. I don’t think 38% will be the Labour share; that poll seems a bit of a fluke. Also worth noting it also had the LDs up, so I’m a bit at a loss by it overall.

    As for Remainers going to Corbyn… c’mon, man! He’s probably personally as pro-Brexit as May.

  39. There’s some analysis on the latest YouGov by EU referendum vote:

    REMAIN VOTERS
    Lab 50%
    Con 26%
    LibDem 16%
    SNP or PC 6%
    Green 2%
    UKIP 1%

    LEAVE VOTERS
    Con 63%
    Lab 23%
    UKIP 7%
    LibDem 3%
    SNP or PC 3%
    Green 1%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf

  40. Apparently torries internal polling backs up the tightening of the race and that the thinking is a 50-85 seat majority is the most likely outcome. And that Thressa May could face a challenge if she doesnt win a majority of more than 100. Source is a friend who has been speaking to well connected sources.

  41. Having campaigned in both Richmond Park and Twickenham for the Lib Dems, I would say that the former is too close to call at present, but Vince Cable has an excellent chance of getting back in the latter. He only lost in 2015 because of the scare around the potential Milliband / Scot Nat coalition imho.

    Richmond Park is very interesting because of the self-harm committed by Zac Goldsmith over the by-election, Brexit and his disastrous London Mayoralty campaign. Whereas in 2010 and 2015 he appeared an exciting and rather glamorous new-style politico, he now looks to my neighbours as an unprincipled self-seeking hack.He should not fail to regain this seat, but he might just do so!

  42. Matt Wilson – bookies set initial odds. Those odds generally move according to what punters bet in order to ensure the books remain balanced. It’s not *quite* as black-and-white as that, but there has been no game-changing moment in recent weeks which would prompt bookies to pro-actively slash LD odds.

    St Albans has, according to bookmakers, become a much better Lib Dem prospect than it was four or five weeks ago. This is clearly nonsense based on the Lib Dem vote going nowhere, and therefore the only explanation is money going on it.

  43. Exiled: I agree generally — unless someone knows something the rest of the world doesn’t, which is almost never the case.

  44. I expect the St Albans bets are because Farron has been twice and the locals. But Lib Dem local results in Herts are never remotely matched in GEs.

  45. “Thressa May could face a challenge if she doesn’t win a majority of more than 100.”

    Well der. Theresa May put all her eggs in the leadership basket and they ended up on her face (if you’ll excuse the torturously mixed metaphor), Which, in the not-as-certain-as-it-once-was scenario that the Tories do get over the line, would utterly destroy the point in having the election, as once again the Conservatives would have a PM hamstrung by a former leader’s mandate.

  46. And if she loses her majority – are we talking worst PM in history? At least since Chamberlain, surely.

  47. S. Telegraph 28may: “Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.

    Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.

    The Tories are on 44% of the vote with Labour on 38%. The Liberal Democrats are on 7% while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.

    It marks a dramatic turnaround….”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

  48. It now appears to me that Labour are going to pick off, rather patchily, a few seats from their target list. and that this may cost the Tories their majority. It looks like Labour will hold most of what they already have.

    It may be important whether the Conservatives are able to pick up seats in Scotland, and whether they are able to hold onto Tory/LibDem marginals, several of which appear to be on a knife-edge..

    In response to Politroll, the nearest to the current situation is 1923, when Bonar Law went to the electorate over free trade and lost his majority.

  49. It was Baldwin who lost in ’23.

  50. Conservative to Labour seats 2017:
    Battersea
    Bedford
    Brighton Kemptown
    Bristol North West
    Bury North
    Canterbury
    Cardiff North
    Colne Valley
    Crewe and Nantwich
    Croydon Central
    Derby North
    Enfield Southgate
    Gower
    High Peak
    Ipswich
    Keighley
    Kensington
    Lincoln
    Peterborough
    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Portsmouth South
    Reading East
    Stockton South
    Stroud
    Vale of Clwyd
    Warrington South
    Warwick and Leamington
    Weaver Vale

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