Clwyd South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10649 (30.4%)
Labour: 13051 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 1349 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 3620 (10.3%)
Green: 915 (2.6%)
UKIP: 5480 (15.6%)
MAJORITY: 2402 (6.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of Wrexham and Denbighshire council areas.

Main population centres: Llangollen, Corwen, Brymbo, Rhosllanerchrugog, Ruabon, Cefn-mawr.

Profile: A long rural seat covering the hinterland of Wrexham and the Dee valley, heading westwards into Wales from the English border. To the west the seat is remote and largely agricultural, in the east it is made up of the collection of villages to the south-west of Wrexham like Brymbo and Rhosllanerchrugog, an area formerly dominated by heavy industry like coal mining, steelworks and brickmaking.

Politics: Despite the rural nature of much of this seat, the industrial and mining heritage of the area to the south-west of Wrexham makes it tend towards Labour, who have held the seat since its creation in 1997. The seat was mostly made up of the old Clwyd South West seat, a marginal that was won by the Conservatives at the height of their popularity in 1983, but gained by Labour in 1987.


Current MP
SUSAN ELAN JONES (Labour) Born 1968, Ponciau. Educated at Bristol University. Former charity fundraiser. Southwark councillor 2006-2009. Contested Surrey Heath 1997. First elected as MP for Clwyd South in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10477 (30%)
Lab: 13311 (38%)
LDem: 5965 (17%)
PC: 3009 (9%)
Oth: 1919 (6%)
MAJ: 2834 (8%)
2005*
Con: 8460 (26%)
Lab: 14808 (45%)
LDem: 5105 (16%)
PC: 3111 (9%)
Oth: 1447 (4%)
MAJ: 6348 (19%)
2001
Con: 8319 (25%)
Lab: 17217 (51%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
PC: 3982 (12%)
Oth: 552 (2%)
MAJ: 8898 (27%)
1997
Con: 9091 (23%)
Lab: 22901 (58%)
LDem: 3684 (9%)
PC: 2500 (6%)
Oth: 1207 (3%)
MAJ: 13810 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVID NICHOLLS (Conservative) Barrister.
SUSAN ELAN JONES (Labour) See above.
BRUCE ROBERTS (Liberal Democrat) Contested Clwyd South 2010.
MANDY JONES (UKIP) Small-businesswoman and qualified teacher.
DUNCAN REES (Green)
MABON AP GWYNFOR (Plaid)
Links
Comments - 29 Responses on “Clwyd South”
  1. Labour hold. 5,000 majority.

  2. Surely, it will be significantly less than that.

    You could be out by a factor of ten. It could be as low as 500.

  3. I don’t see with the UK polling picture at present (although I accept as in 2010 that Wales may be gradually moving away from Labour) why Labour’s majority would be reduced here unless something significant happens in the last fortnight (which it may of course do).

    At present I am inclined to agree with Shaun’s prediction, possibly very slightly less than that: Labour by about 4,500 I think.

    Interesting to note the BNP outpolled UKIP in 2010, this is close to were my parents live and that surprises me a bit.

  4. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the local Health Board and its performance in North Wales.

  5. I’m sure that there is, but it does not logically follow that this will cause large numbers of people to switch their vote to the Tories.

  6. They may switch to PC or Lib Dem instead?

  7. More likely most people who would consider voting Labour would think that the performance of the Health Board is not all that relevant to deciding which party to vote for in a UK general election.

  8. The Welsh Government in Cardiff is responsible for the funding Health Boards in Wales receive. It is no longer the NATIONAL Health Service It should now be called Regional Health Services.

    If you get referred to an England Health board from Wales, The England Health board can say to the Welsh Health Board: “The cost of that treatment is £2000, will you agree to transfer that amount of money”

    Often, The Welsh Health Board will refuse to pay, but will not inform the patient of that fact……..

  9. Susan Elan Jones was wearing a green and yellow rosette as the result was announced, (at 3:49:30 on this video):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05ttsx0/election-2015-wales-election-2015-wales

  10. How can a seat with a majority of just 2400 odd be classed as only semi marginal

  11. Maybe because the electorate is lower than in many constituencies in England?

  12. Also it’s a Labour seat with a Tory government so there should be more scope for it to swing in Labour’s favour than that of the Tories. A Conservative-held seat with a similar majority should be considered more marginal as it would be much more likely to change hands at the next election.

  13. A majority of more than 6% would be regarded as semi-marginal in many circumstances.

  14. 90% of the predictions on this site since around 2012 have been complete rubbish.
    So we don’t yet know whether it’ll be Tory or Labour seats on the defensive next time or a bit of both.

  15. The Lib Dem predictions almost even worse than the C v Lab ones.
    The Lib Dems have been deservedly smashed to pieces.

  16. Joe. Do you call that comment “non-partisan” ?

  17. Yes for once l agree with Dai. Please control yourself Joe. You’ve been using this site long enough to know that, surely.

  18. There has been a lot of Tory activity in this seat during the Welsh Assembly election, going by Twitter – visits today from all three Wales Office ministers and also reports of personalised letters (this usually only happens in target seats). It seems a distant target, though perhaps if UKIP and Plaid eat away at the Labour vote who knows? If the canvass returns were suggesting it was a no hope presumably the ministers would have gone somewhere else instead…

  19. It is one of the last truly rural seats that still votes Labour so good reasons to think it will go Tory at some point, especially as neighbouring Vale of Clwyd turned blue on a 4% swing last year. Recent polling doesn’t suggest they’ll be doing well enough to gain this type of seat this time round, however.

    Having said that, on last year’s polling nobody would have thought they’d gain seats and they did so I wouldn’t rule it out,

  20. @Maxim

    Like in much of Wales the Tory results are only OK, nothing spectacular… what is notable is Labour’s slide.

  21. Labour could conceivably slide below 30% of the vote next Thursday.

  22. ‘It is one of the last truly rural seats that still votes Labour so good reasons to think it will go Tory at some point’

    Whilst this is a rural seat the bulk of the population reside in the largely industrial towns just south of Wrexham, providing Labour with enough of a base to withstand the Tory sympathies of those who live in the east and west of the seat

    The bulk of this seat geographically did of course have a Tory MP up until 1987 – in its former guises of Clwyd South West and Denbigh

  23. ‘Other seats in that category are Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield.’

    There are similarities with Bishop Auckland – a Tory-voting rural hinterland outvoted by the bulk of the population which reside in gritty industrial towns – but not Sedgefield which is dominated by the new town of Newton Aycliffe. There’s no town like that in Clywd South

    ‘There are still a handful of rural seats where the Labour vote can be weighed rather than counted.’

    I wouldn’t classify the Durham seats as rural because the majority of the population live in ex industrial areas

    Copeland is probably Labour’s most rural seat in England – and even that has some industrial overtones

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