Cities of London & Westminster

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19570 (54.1%)
Labour: 9899 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 2521 (7%)
Green: 1953 (5.4%)
UKIP: 1894 (5.2%)
Others: 348 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9671 (26.7%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. The City of London and part of the Westminster council area.

Main population centres: Mayfair, Marylebone, Pimlico, Belgravia.

Profile: The core of London, covering the most of the major landmarks, parks, shopping areas, financial headquarters and housing the main organs of the state. One can be in no doubt that the United Kingdom is a largely centralised state looking at what falls under this single constituency, in the west is Buckingham Palace, the official residence of the Queen, surrounded by the royal parks. Nearby the government departments on Whitehall itself and now spreading down Victoria Street, also the location of New Scotland Yard. The seat covers Downing Street, official residence of the Prime Minister and the Houses of Parliament itself. Heading north there are the major shopping areas of Knightsbridge, Regent and Oxford Streets, the West End theatreland and Soho, then eastwards there are the Inns of Court, the Royal Courts of Justice, the Old Bailey and then finally the City of London itself, with St Paul`s Cathedral, its skyscrapers, the Bank of England and the Stock Exchange..

Politics: The City of London is the small medieval core of the city, originally bounded by the city walls (although it includes some wards outside the line of the old physical walls). It continues to be governed as a separate local authority, the smallest in the country and the only local authority still to have a business franchise. Despite a weekday population of hundreds of thousands, there are relatively few permanent residents here, mostly concentrated in the Barbican and Golden Lane Estate. The vast bulk of the electorate are in Westminster, covering some of the most insanely expensive (and solidly Conservative) residential real estate in the country in Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair. There are dwindling cosmopolitian residential areas in Soho and social housing around Victoria and in Mayfair, but overall this is Conservative territory, with every ward in the constituency returning Conservative councillors since the boundary changes in 2002.


Current MP
MARK FIELD (Conservative) Born 1964. Educated at Reading School and Oxford University. Former Solicitor and director of an employment agency. Kensington and Chelsea councillor 1994-2002. Contested Enfield North 1997. First elected as MP for Cities of London and Westminster in 2001. Opposition Whip 2003-04, Shadow Minister for London 2003-05, Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury 2005, Shadow Minister for Culture 2005-06.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19264 (52%)
Lab: 8188 (22%)
LDem: 7574 (21%)
GRN: 778 (2%)
Oth: 1127 (3%)
MAJ: 11076 (30%)
2005*
Con: 17260 (47%)
Lab: 9165 (25%)
LDem: 7306 (20%)
GRN: 1544 (4%)
Oth: 1212 (3%)
MAJ: 8095 (22%)
2001
Con: 15737 (46%)
Lab: 11238 (33%)
LDem: 5218 (15%)
GRN: 1318 (4%)
Oth: 464 (1%)
MAJ: 4499 (13%)
1997
Con: 18981 (47%)
Lab: 14100 (35%)
LDem: 4933 (12%)
Oth: 980 (2%)
MAJ: 4881 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK FIELD (Conservative) See above.
NICK SLINGSBY (Labour)
BELINDA BROOKS-GORDON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middlesex Polytechnic and Cambridge University. Psychologist. Cambridgshire councillor. Contested West Suffolk 2010, East of England 2014 European election.
ROBERT STEPHENSON (UKIP)
HUGH SMALL (Green) Educated at Durham University. Former management consultant.
ADAM CLIFFORD (Class War)
JILL MCLACHLAN (CPA) Contested Cities of London and Westminster 2005, North West European region 2009.
EDOUARD-HENRI DESFORGES (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 559 Responses on “Cities of London & Westminster”
  1. Nope. I have a feeling it might be the Labour candidate in North West Durham – she is prominent.

  2. Westminster voting intention:

    Con: 45% (-1)
    Lab: 33% (+2)
    Lib Dem: 12% (-1)

    via OpiniumResearch
    10 – 11 Dec
    Changes with 6th December.

  3. Qriously poll:

    Con: 43%
    Lab: 30% (-11)
    Lib Dem: 12% (+4)
    Green 4% (+2)
    Brexit 3% (+3)

    +/- vs. 2017 election
    Fieldwork: 5-8 December 2019

    In 2017 this company’s poll gave Labour a two point lead.

  4. It looks like this will be one of the many seats where the bulk of Remain-supporting Tories, hold their noses, think of Corbyn and do what they have always done – put a tick next to the Conservative candidate on the ballot paper

    If the recent constituency polls is to be believed, the Lib Dems have failed to make any real impact despite picking one of their star performers, and Labour have gone backwards

    if that’s the case in a staunchly Remain seat like this, it suggests the Tories position on Brexit might not be so costly in these types of areas afterall

  5. Still think LD gain but split opposition could let Tories through

  6. Number Cruncher Politics UK
    Con 43 (-1)
    Lab 33 (-8)
    Lib Dem 12 (+4)
    SNP 4 (+1)
    Plaid 1 (=)
    Brexit 3 (+3)
    Green 3 (+1)

    Fieldwork 8th-10th Dec

  7. The PoliSciJack and PME_Politics
    model suggests 8% chance of a hung parliament:
    Con 346 (321-374)
    Lab 217 (193-240)
    Lib Dem 16 (13-19)
    SNP 46 (36-55)

  8. Westminster voting intention:

    Con: 43% (-)
    Lab: 34% (-)
    Lib Dem: 11% (-2)
    Brexit: 4% (+1)
    Green: 3% (+1)

    via PanelbaseMD
    , 10 – 11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

  9. Con: 41% (-)
    Lab: 32% (-)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-)
    Green: 4% (-)
    Brexit : 3% (-1)

    via BMGResearch
    06 – 11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

  10. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-)
    LAB: 32% (-)
    LDEM: 14% (-) GRN: 4% (-) BREX: 3% (-1) via @BMGResearch, 06 – 11 Dec Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

  11. I was campaigning in Penistone this morning and the response was the best we’ve had so far. Then Stocksbridge this afternoon and while there were good response it wasn’t the same. It’s mad that the rural parts of the constituency were better for Labour than the industrial and former industrial parts

  12. Con: 41% (-)
    Lab: 36% (+3)
    Libdem : 12% (-)

    via SavantaComRes
    , 09 – 10 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 05 Dec
    Hung parliament land.

  13. That’s fascinating Matt. Might mean in some seats Labour survives due to extra middle class votes compared to 2017 while losing white working class ones.

  14. The exit poll tommrow will probably underestimate the Tories due the postal voting factor.

  15. Westminster voting intention:

    Con: 44% (-)
    Lab: 32% (-)
    Lib Dem 13% (-2)
    Brexit: 3% (+1)
    Green: 3% (-)

    via
    KantarTNS
    09 -11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 02 Dec

  16. Interesting; Lab +3 on both polls dated 09/10… NO change on polls dated 10/11

  17. Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    1m
    Westminster voting intention:

    Con 45% (+1)
    Lab: 35% (+2)
    Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
    Brexit : 3% (-)
    Green: 3% (+1)

    via DeltaPollUK
    , 09 -11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 07 Dec

  18. ● Tories are heading for a big majority (45+)
    ● Turnout down by 3%-5%
    ● LAB devastated north of Cambridge

  19. Who knows. Think some seats might see turnout rise.

  20. Polltroll has mentioned here about the gender gap we’ve seen in polling this election (I.e. huge leads for Con with male voters, pretty much level pegging with females). Wonder if this will be picked up by the media and during the results shows tomorrow.

  21. ‘LAB devastated north of Cambridge’

    I can’t decide who the biggest drama queen is on here. BM11 or porno name.

  22. Neither. It’s you.

  23. To be fair in London labour is looking at few loses and might even have a net gain in London. But elsewhere it’s very bad.

  24. “The exit poll tommrow will probably underestimate the Tories due the postal voting factor.”

    The last two exit polls have slightly underestimated the Tory seat totals, by 3 seats (in 2017) and by 15 (in 2015). In 2010 they were almost spot on.

    The methodology they use is to compare the votes cast on the day with those cast at the same polling stations in the previous election, and to assume that the 25%-ish who vote by post are moving in the same direction. This could come unstuck if there was a surge in (say) older tory-minded voters taking up postal votes since 2017. But the fact that the Tories generally get a higher proportion of their votes from postal voters should not, in itself, distort the exit poll.

  25. I don’t know about very bad. I had one friend who is a student in a marginal outside London and home address in another. He’s been told not to worry about voting at uni as they’re confident they’ve won it.

    I’ve heard similar things in other places. The votes are tgere we just need to get them out.

  26. ‘Neither. It’s you’

    Fantastic comeback. Well done. Just the level of wit I expect from you.

    A huge Tory majority would be depressing, but at least they would have to completely own Brexit. No more finger pointing or bullshitting. Clouds and silver linings.

  27. Which seats Matt?

  28. Lewis Goodall of sky predicts a small tory majority with some solid red wall labour seats falling.

    For example he thinks Leigh might fall but Altrincham might be closer than expected

    He thinks that while Labour won’t gain them Worthing Crawley and Thanet North are going to see good Labour performances

  29. Thanet North?!! I’ll believe that decent Lab performance when I see it. Crawley I can see, and Worthing was relatively ok for Lab in 2017. The two Milton Keynes seats are quite close as per YouGov MRP but I don’t see a Labour gain in either.

  30. Westminster voting intention:

    Con: 45% (-)
    Lab: 34% (+3)
    Ld: 9% (-2)

    via Survation
    , 10 – 11 Dec

    Most accurate in 2017.

  31. Tristan, Worthing is now far closer because of demographic change, as people who can no longer afford to live in Brighton move along the coast. Several wards are now normally Labour in local elections, which is a major shift from recent times; Worthing occasionally changed hands between Cons and Lib Dems, but Labour had only ever one a ward there once. They’ve always had some support in the Adur elements of Worthing East and Shoreham. Crawley I can’t understand though. It only went Labour in the Blair years, has nearly full employment, and though it has long had an Asian population in one ward (Langley Green, which is a Labour stronghold), and has seen some increase in the Black African population, it is still mainly White (Skilled) Working Class with some London commuters and strongly pro-Brexit, much more so than Horsham next door.

  32. Surprisingly Boris has voted here and not in Uxbridge. Sign of where the Tories see danger?

  33. ..or just a sign that Boris lives in this constituency and doesn’t live or in Uxbridge.
    Hence his address on the ballot paper appearing as 10 Downing Street.

  34. Bad etiquette to not have a property in the constituency especially a marginal.

  35. Con: 44% (-)
    Lab: 33% (+1)
    Lib dem: 12% (-1)
    Green : 3% (-)
    Brexit: 2% (-)

    via IpsosMORI
    09 – 11 Dec
    Changes. w/ 04 Dec

  36. I hadn’t even realised Swinson was married to Duncan Hames.

    Arlene had a Union Flag scarf on.

    Didn’t even recognise the UUP leader voting.

    Plaid seem to be focusing on Price (sensible), as opposed to their (English) Westminster leader.

    I think there’s only Farage left to vote, but he may not even do a photo given he said he may spoil his ballot.

  37. £10 UK POLLING REPORT GE2019 PREDICTION CHALLENGE

    GRUMPY: CON 302 LAB 269 LD 18 SNP 37

    BM11: CON 377 LAB 187 LD 21 SNP 42

    HEMMELIG: CON 335 LAB 225 LD 25 SNP 42

    LANCS OB: CON 340 LAB 235 LD 15 SNP 35

    DPTHROAT: CON 364 LAB 207 LD 14 SNP 39 (not final)

    These are the entries so far. Plse enter (or amend) by 21:30.

  38. Kudos to you Deepthroat for putting your entry down so early on.

    I’ll stick with mine though my hunch at this point is that the Tories will probably do better.

  39. I suspect it will look like this:

    Con 304
    Lab 270
    LD 12
    SNP 40

  40. i reckon:

    cons 326
    labour 232
    lib dems 24
    snp 42

  41. My prediction:

    CON: 348
    LAB: 224
    LDEM:15
    SNP: 42

    A Con majority of 40-50 is likely IMO.

  42. Just for the banter value:

    Con: 318
    Lab: 262
    LD: 12
    SNP: 35

  43. DPTHROAT: CON 361 LAB 211 LD 14 SNP 39 (FINAL)

  44. An absolute hammering as per the exit poll!

    Tories- 368
    Lab- 191

  45. Not unexpected. The SNP projection of 55 is one of the big stories…

  46. I honestly can’t see the SNP winning 55 seats. It would require the Tories to lose almost all of their seats, and I think seats on the borders and maybe west aberdeenshire will be held.

  47. Let’s see what Sunderland says…

  48. Scotland is Ruth Davidson’s fault – asking for trouble with that STUPID comment yesterday just about begging people to turn out for SNP (in effect although not in intention).

  49. Tristan will love the rough looking Blyth Valley Tories at the Count.

    Almost reminds me of Sunderland on EU Ref night.

  50. Lol. Yes they are lovely. On the flipside, Priti Patel looked great earlier.

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