Cities of London & Westminster
2015 Result:
Conservative: 19570 (54.1%)
Labour: 9899 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 2521 (7%)
Green: 1953 (5.4%)
UKIP: 1894 (5.2%)
Others: 348 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9671 (26.7%)
Category: Very safe Conservative seat
Geography: Greater London. The City of London and part of the Westminster council area.
Main population centres: Mayfair, Marylebone, Pimlico, Belgravia.
Profile: The core of London, covering the most of the major landmarks, parks, shopping areas, financial headquarters and housing the main organs of the state. One can be in no doubt that the United Kingdom is a largely centralised state looking at what falls under this single constituency, in the west is Buckingham Palace, the official residence of the Queen, surrounded by the royal parks. Nearby the government departments on Whitehall itself and now spreading down Victoria Street, also the location of New Scotland Yard. The seat covers Downing Street, official residence of the Prime Minister and the Houses of Parliament itself. Heading north there are the major shopping areas of Knightsbridge, Regent and Oxford Streets, the West End theatreland and Soho, then eastwards there are the Inns of Court, the Royal Courts of Justice, the Old Bailey and then finally the City of London itself, with St Paul`s Cathedral, its skyscrapers, the Bank of England and the Stock Exchange..
Politics: The City of London is the small medieval core of the city, originally bounded by the city walls (although it includes some wards outside the line of the old physical walls). It continues to be governed as a separate local authority, the smallest in the country and the only local authority still to have a business franchise. Despite a weekday population of hundreds of thousands, there are relatively few permanent residents here, mostly concentrated in the Barbican and Golden Lane Estate. The vast bulk of the electorate are in Westminster, covering some of the most insanely expensive (and solidly Conservative) residential real estate in the country in Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair. There are dwindling cosmopolitian residential areas in Soho and social housing around Victoria and in Mayfair, but overall this is Conservative territory, with every ward in the constituency returning Conservative councillors since the boundary changes in 2002.
| Con: | 19264 (52%) |
| Lab: | 8188 (22%) |
| LDem: | 7574 (21%) |
| GRN: | 778 (2%) |
| Oth: | 1127 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 11076 (30%) |
| Con: | 17260 (47%) |
| Lab: | 9165 (25%) |
| LDem: | 7306 (20%) |
| GRN: | 1544 (4%) |
| Oth: | 1212 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 8095 (22%) |
| Con: | 15737 (46%) |
| Lab: | 11238 (33%) |
| LDem: | 5218 (15%) |
| GRN: | 1318 (4%) |
| Oth: | 464 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 4499 (13%) |
| Con: | 18981 (47%) |
| Lab: | 14100 (35%) |
| LDem: | 4933 (12%) |
| Oth: | 980 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 4881 (12%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
LEADERSHIP SCORES
Johnson -3
Farage -22
Swinson -34
Corbyn -37
Farrage now more popular than Swinson and Corbyn.
Datapraxis MRP model gives Tories a majority of 38
Con 344 (+27)
Lab 221 (-41)
LD 14 (+2)
SNP 47 (+12)
PC 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Two weeks ago they predicted tory majority of 48.
You gov. gap increases to 10.
Con 43% (+1)
Lab 33% (-)
LD 13% (+1)
Brexit 3 (-1)
Green 3 (-1)
Datapraxis boss Paul Hilder says: “We have never seen as many undecided voters this late in the campaign. As many as 80-90 constituencies are still up for grabs. A much larger Conservative landslide is still possible – but so is a hung Parliament.”
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
· 20m
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (+2)
LAB: 32% (-1)
LDM: 14% (+1)
BXP: 4% (=)
Via @BMGResearch, 4-6 Dec.
Changes w/ 27-29 Nov.
All polls clustering arround the 43-41 vs 32-34 mark unlike 2017.
Yes. Tories looking at a majority of 40-50 it seems.
If it’s like 2015 polling it could be much larger. 2017 polling and it could be lower.
Polls have been deadlocked for about two weeks now, and times running out for Labour to pick up again before polling day. At this stage, if Corbyn is going to get into Downing Street, it’s more likely to be because the polls have been wrong all this time, than that there is a decisive shift in the next four days.
(I think analysis of the polls has overemphasised how vote shares may change over the campaign, as it did hugely in 2017; and underpriced thr possibilty that the polls are suffering some sort of systematic error, as happened in 2015.)
I never expected that Lab would win the most number of seats,and never considered that Corbyn would be PM at the end of this (and thank goodness for that;he’d be crap IMO). I think for many liberals (such as myself), the hope was that the Tories wouldn’t win some 1983 landslide so the most right wing government of modern times couldn’t go mad. I’m still hopeful that it won’t happen.
Differential turnout is the only thing that can contradict the polls. That is younger people under 35 voting in much bigger numbers than expected and at the same time many more older people (65+) not voting because they’re pissed off with everything and/or it’s too cold and wet to walk to the polling station.
In my own life I know two young people 223 & 26yo, voting for the first time Lab) while a Tory since 2001 is abstaining.
Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:
CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)
*Changes w/ UKIP vote share.
In my own life I know two young people, a 23 & 26yo, voting for the first time Lab) while an octogenarian Tory (since 2001) is abstaining.
Deepthroat: data is not the plural of anecdote.
Since we’re doing anecdotes though, my traditionally Conservative father and historically Labour stepmother have, in a touching display of marital unity, agreed that neither of them can stomach their parties and are both voting for the Lib Dems.
My boss never votes will be voting Labour.
Polltroll- that’s interesting. Is your parents constituency marginal?
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)
via @Survation
, 05 – 07 Dec
Chgs. w/ 30 Nov
And that’s Survation, the Corbynistas’ pollster of choice.
An underobserved phenomenon at this general election: the enormous gender disparity in voting intention. In this Survation poll the Tories are 27 points among men, and dead level with women.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 36% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)
via ICMResearch
, 06 – 09 Dec
Chgs. w/ 02 Dec
I see the polls are being decisively indecisive.
Still in hung parliament territory – only question is who will be largest party.
Only with a couple of pollsters – most point to a 40+ tory majority. My gut remains a massive Tory landslide bigger than 1983.
That’s brave
Personally it looks like a small Tory majority but let’s not forget that the polls got it completely wrong in the last 2 elections, despite them mostly saying the same thing on each occasion
The only poll worth the money it’s written on is the Exit poll that comes out once the polls have closed on Thursday as collectively it’s been a very poor election campaign
Labour have been unable to recapture the energy of their last campaign and the Tories strategy has been based on playing the Corbyn card, banging on about “getting Brexit done” whenever they get the opportunity, saying as little as possible about anything else and keeping Johnson away from anyone who intends to put him under proper scrutiny.
Surely you need to do better than this to win an election
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 43% (+1) LAB: 36% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1) BXP: 3% (-1) GRN: 2% (=)
Via @SavantaComRes,6-8 Dec,chgs w/ 2-5 Dec.
Two 36’s in one day for Lab…heady days lol.
Still a tory rise which fits with them getting 42-45.
See the ground game seems much better than 2017. There was 100 people campaigning in Stocksbridge and Penistone yesterday. We’ve covered the constituency and going back again to voters we missed. I’ve been told it’s similar in NE Derbyshire, etc. In Hallam there were 4 canvassing sessions on Saturday and Sunday in the morning and afternoon. We’ve outgunned the opposition 20 to 1. It wasn’t like this in 2017 at all. Feels like that matters.
I suppose it depends which seats you visit.
I was about to say the complete opposite: a lack of Labour posters compared with 2017. Then a lot displayed the retro Labour posters as well as the red standard ones. No huge rallies now unlike in 2017.
Cities of London & Westminster, constituency voting intention:
CON: 44% (+5)
LDEM: 28% (-5)
LAB: 26% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)
via DeltaPollUK
, 03 – 08 Dec
Chgs. w/ 21 Nov
Looks like a solid Tory hold here.
This is true. I had a friend in Dewsbury who says he’s had no contact at all. We’ve had a lot of help from Sheffield Central and Heeley. I understand members in Manchester are regularly out in Calder Valley. Maybe Dewsbury isn’t as easy to get to but then we’ve got members from London staying with us to campaign as well so don’t know.
There haven’t been as many rallies that’s true and someone mentioned that today but it does feel like a more targetted campaign. I’ve never known us to go back to voters outside a by election ofc. One person did say alot of people at rallies in 2017 are now knocking on doors
See my post on page 8, 22nd Nov. A reminder about this. Get your predictions in by 21:30 on 12/12/19.
UK POLLING REPORT GE2019 PREDICTION CHALLENGE:
£10 for charity prize provided by me.
My one, at this time, is:
CON 368
LAB 203
SNP 40
LD 15
GRN 1
BXP 0
NI 18
PC 5
TURNOUT 64.5%
Prediction:
Lab-SNP-PC-LD-G coalition 328 seats:
Lab 269
SNP 37
PC 3
LD 18
G 1
DUP 9
Alliance 2
SDLP 1
SF 6
Ind 1
Spkr 1
Cons 302
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
·
16s
Northern Ireland) poll:
DUP: 32% (-4)
SF 26% (-3)
APNi 17% (+9)
SDLP 14% (+2)
UUP 12% (+2)
+/- w/ 2017 General Election
Fieldwork: 27-30 Nov 2019
42% of Labour 2017 leave vote prefers a Johnson rather than Corbyn government.
2017 Lib Dems split 61-39 in favour of a Corbyn government.
17% of Tory 2017 remain vote prefer a Corbyn to a Johnson government.
BM11
Where are you quoting from pls?
Lord Ashcroft polls.
75000 Unite members were polled a month ago
Labour 35%
Conservative 19%
Brexit Party 11%
Undecided 18%
Lib Dems 7%
Not voting 4%
Green 2%
Ukip 1%
Report that the MRP is going to show
Tories – Happily relieved. (Over 400?)
Labour = Frustrated & speechless. (under 200?)
LD= Game Over. (Swinson losing?)
Snp = Job well done.
Update – said to show tories down but still in goverment postiion.
Apparently it shows a thirty seat majority.
Another Mrp has been posted
NEW MRP model from Focaldata:
CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1
CON majority 24
UK #GE2019 MRP seat projection:
CON: 339 (-20) LAB: 231 (+20) SNP: 41 (-2) LDEM: 15 (+2) PC: 4 (-) GRN: 1 (-) BREX: 0 (-) via @YouGov, Chgs. w/ 26 Nov
Sceptical about this. What has caused the big shift. Doesnt make sense.
If True it’s John Baron’s dream as the hardcore no dealers will be able to block an extension.
In this seat it’s
Tory 38.
Lib Dem 32
Lab 25.
Deepthroat: it’s mainly just a function of an extremely large number of marginal constituencies. Small shifts in VI flip a lot of seats.
In 2017 MRP predicted 310 and it ended up 317. So similar error would mean Tory majority of 48.
I think it’s wrong because of the sudden drop caused by Boris phone gaffe. Today all Ashworth gate. I still think a three figure majority is going to be what the exit poll shows.
Nobody has noticed or cared about “Ashworthgate”, a “scandal” so trifling it serves only to hollow out the true meaning of the -gate suffix.
On the other hand, the Labour Party is doing their best to drum into everyone’s heads the way Boris behaved about that photo of the child, which was… weird, and does seem to be cutting through. Certainly the Labour Party is doing their very best to bring the incident to *my* attention – I’ve seen multiple online adverts about it in just the last 24 hours.
A Tory majority is still the most likely outcome, but certainly it’s not the sure thing it would be if the election had been held a week or two ago.
It’s not that big a shift. If you look at the headline VI Labour are up 2 from last one which is in line with YouGovs traditional poll. The last model showed more than a dozen seats had a Tory lead of 1-2% so its no surprise to see the change. They had a graphic of the tory lead over the period since the last model. Despite a 9 point lead in the headline VI since the weekend it’s 8 points. There’s another 6 seats on that list with 1% tory lead
If I had to speculate. When we were canvassing on Monday in Dodworth we saw through a couple people’s windows the news about the child on the floor and when voters came to the door they wanted to talk about it.
One prominent Labour candidate contesting a red wall seat:
“Either our vote holds up and it’ll be a small Tory majority or a hung parliament or the whole red wall collapses and it is game over.”
So basically he/ she has no idea? Great.