Cities of London & Westminster

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19570 (54.1%)
Labour: 9899 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 2521 (7%)
Green: 1953 (5.4%)
UKIP: 1894 (5.2%)
Others: 348 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9671 (26.7%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. The City of London and part of the Westminster council area.

Main population centres: Mayfair, Marylebone, Pimlico, Belgravia.

Profile: The core of London, covering the most of the major landmarks, parks, shopping areas, financial headquarters and housing the main organs of the state. One can be in no doubt that the United Kingdom is a largely centralised state looking at what falls under this single constituency, in the west is Buckingham Palace, the official residence of the Queen, surrounded by the royal parks. Nearby the government departments on Whitehall itself and now spreading down Victoria Street, also the location of New Scotland Yard. The seat covers Downing Street, official residence of the Prime Minister and the Houses of Parliament itself. Heading north there are the major shopping areas of Knightsbridge, Regent and Oxford Streets, the West End theatreland and Soho, then eastwards there are the Inns of Court, the Royal Courts of Justice, the Old Bailey and then finally the City of London itself, with St Paul`s Cathedral, its skyscrapers, the Bank of England and the Stock Exchange..

Politics: The City of London is the small medieval core of the city, originally bounded by the city walls (although it includes some wards outside the line of the old physical walls). It continues to be governed as a separate local authority, the smallest in the country and the only local authority still to have a business franchise. Despite a weekday population of hundreds of thousands, there are relatively few permanent residents here, mostly concentrated in the Barbican and Golden Lane Estate. The vast bulk of the electorate are in Westminster, covering some of the most insanely expensive (and solidly Conservative) residential real estate in the country in Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair. There are dwindling cosmopolitian residential areas in Soho and social housing around Victoria and in Mayfair, but overall this is Conservative territory, with every ward in the constituency returning Conservative councillors since the boundary changes in 2002.


Current MP
MARK FIELD (Conservative) Born 1964. Educated at Reading School and Oxford University. Former Solicitor and director of an employment agency. Kensington and Chelsea councillor 1994-2002. Contested Enfield North 1997. First elected as MP for Cities of London and Westminster in 2001. Opposition Whip 2003-04, Shadow Minister for London 2003-05, Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury 2005, Shadow Minister for Culture 2005-06.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19264 (52%)
Lab: 8188 (22%)
LDem: 7574 (21%)
GRN: 778 (2%)
Oth: 1127 (3%)
MAJ: 11076 (30%)
2005*
Con: 17260 (47%)
Lab: 9165 (25%)
LDem: 7306 (20%)
GRN: 1544 (4%)
Oth: 1212 (3%)
MAJ: 8095 (22%)
2001
Con: 15737 (46%)
Lab: 11238 (33%)
LDem: 5218 (15%)
GRN: 1318 (4%)
Oth: 464 (1%)
MAJ: 4499 (13%)
1997
Con: 18981 (47%)
Lab: 14100 (35%)
LDem: 4933 (12%)
Oth: 980 (2%)
MAJ: 4881 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK FIELD (Conservative) See above.
NICK SLINGSBY (Labour)
BELINDA BROOKS-GORDON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middlesex Polytechnic and Cambridge University. Psychologist. Cambridgshire councillor. Contested West Suffolk 2010, East of England 2014 European election.
ROBERT STEPHENSON (UKIP)
HUGH SMALL (Green) Educated at Durham University. Former management consultant.
ADAM CLIFFORD (Class War)
JILL MCLACHLAN (CPA) Contested Cities of London and Westminster 2005, North West European region 2009.
EDOUARD-HENRI DESFORGES (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 437 Responses on “Cities of London & Westminster”
  1. My updated prediction AT THIS TIME. LD down CON up. SNP down
    CON 369
    LAB 208
    SNP 34
    LD 15
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    NI 18
    PC 5
    TURNOUT 65%

  2. Deepthroat- do you have the Tories gaining in Scotland? Seems unlikely that SLab will retain all seven seats.

  3. From what I’ve heard Labour campaigners tend to report Dislike of Corbyn is coming up on doorsteps more than Brexit.
    And they tend to think You Gov is too optimistic regarding Labour in the Stoke/Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire seats.

    I’ve noticed a lot of Labour campaigning in Erith and Thamesmead where You Gov gave Labour a very narrow lead. Could be a shock defeat for Labour there.

  4. As I said, a defeat for Lab this time will at least ensure getting rid of Corbyn. Although who the Momentum mob will choose as his successor is anyone’s guess.

  5. Probably Rebecca Long Bailey.

    Richard Burgon is representing Labour in the debate tonight – surprise choice.

  6. Weird. Most of the polls seem to be getting a bit tighter but most people “in the know” (inasmuch as anyone can be) seem to be drifting towards a bigger Tory majority.

  7. Probally poor voter distribution for Labour – not dropping much in inner London etc but losing heavily in the likes of Don Valley.

  8. Yes I agree with that last sentence.

    Above sorry I tootted up wrong and my top 3 is
    CON 364
    LAB 207
    SNP 39

  9. We had much of this in 2017. Labour Uncut reported a nuclear winter outside London. Polling and models aren’t 100%as we know but anecdotes shouldn’t be considered on par with psephology

  10. Healthy reminder Matt

    Truth is, there’s an unprecedented no of seats IMO, that we just can’t be even reasonably sure of the result.

    (Even leaving aside further national poll variation)

  11. I think you’re absolutely right BT

  12. Labour uncut predictions were even worse in London.

  13. New Survation poll reduces the tory lead to 9 down from 11. But the tory vote still rose by 1.
    I think Lab will do well to beat 1983 – I cant see Tories under 350.

  14. Put your money where your mouth is 😉 sporting spread has Labour 215-221

  15. ICM keeps a seven point gap with the Tories and Labour both rising by one to 42% and 35% respectively

  16. I agree with BM11 that 35-36% is probably Lab’s upper limit in this election.

  17. Kantar poll has the Tories up one to 44 but Labour stuck at 32. Gap therefore up from 11 to 12.
    Said poll also rises the Lib Dems by one but lowers the Greens and Brexit by one.

  18. You Gov Tories and Labour both down 1. Tories retain a 9 point lead at 42-33.
    LD down 1 to 12 with Brexit up 2 to 4. Greens up 1 to 4.

  19. Labour improve 8% in Yougov London poll.

    LAB: 47% (+8)
    CON: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 15% (-4)
    GRN: 4% (-1)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    28/11 – 2/12

  20. I think a lot of Northern Labour members are becoming resigned to losing a lot of the Red Wall.
    In London Labour members are more optimistic at holding almost everything and maybe making the odd gain.

  21. The New Statesman has somewhat surprisingly refused to endorse Labour.

  22. What reasons given?

  23. Anti-Semitism and dithering on Brexit. Praise from them for policies like Free Broadband through.

  24. I found the editorial a weird one, to be honest, considering how much it otherwise praised the party’s “creative” manifesto, that it didn’t subsequently endorse the party. That said they were mostly bang on about the Tories.

    My favourite “endorsement” (if you can call it that) was an IFS summary that labelled the Lib Dem manifesto “more fiscally prudent than the Tories, more redistributive than Labour.” It really is a travesty that they’ve been torn to pieces over the past month.

  25. Savnta poll.
    Con and Lab both down 1 to 42 and 32. LD, Brexit and Green all down as well.

  26. Polls seem almost *too* consistent at the moment. Nearly every poll putting the Tories 9 or 10 points ahead. You’d expect more variance than that just from pure chance, let alone methodological differences.

  27. True
    But equally that could be the election result.

  28. LAB can only hope the polls are way out. And they could be.

    Differential turnout may make a mockery of the polls. That is younger people under 35 voting in much bigger numbers than expected and at the same time many more older people (65+) than predicted not making the walk to the polling station.

  29. I predict LD gain this seat.

  30. I will be surprised at that. Think the Tories will survive here and in Wimbledon and regain Kensington because of a split opposition.

  31. The Economist has endorsed the LibDems.

  32. IpsosMORI, Tories stay at 44 while Labour is up four to 32. So the gap reduces from 16 to 12.

  33. The updated version of the YouGov MRP model will be released 10pm on Tuesday.
    I don’t expect much change.

  34. Well it was based on an 11% lead for Tories which has been a 9% lead the last few days.

    Given that the 2% change won’t be uniform, could be some significant changes, plus polls may continue to narrow for the remaining days collecting data.

  35. PanelbaseMD

    Tory rise by 1 to 43 but Labour stays the same at 34 despite the greens going down.

  36. Polls clustering (herding, even?) on a 10% gap. That’s a Tory majority of at least 50.

    I’m still somewhat sceptical. It does seem like house effects have disappeared all of a sudden. Early in the campaign there was clearly a bunch of pollsters that showed bigger leads versus another lot that showed smaller ones and occasionally dipped into hung parliament territory. But they seem to have converged. I don’t understand why.

  37. Yougov-Who won?

    Boris Johnson- 52
    Jeremy Corbyn- 48

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