Chorley

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18792 (36.3%)
Labour: 23322 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 1354 (2.6%)
Green: 1111 (2.1%)
UKIP: 6995 (13.5%)
Independent: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 4530 (8.8%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: North West, Lancashire. Part of the Chorley council area.

Main population centres: Chorley, Adlington, Whittle-le-Woods, Coppull, Euxton.

Profile: Chorley is divided between the town of Chorley itself and its more Conservative hinterland. Chorley is a historic market town that become important in the cotton industry in the nineteenth century. It forms a conurbation with Preston and Leyland and in the 1970s there were abortive plans for the towns it to form part of a new Central Lancashire new town. A major new development, Buckshaw Village, is currently being constructed in the North of the constituency on the site of the former Royal Ordnance Factory. Chorley is also the site of the largest Mormon temple outside of Salt Lake City.

Politics: A key marginal between Labour and the Conservatives, Chorley had been one of the more reliable bellwether seats in the country, having been won by the party that went on to form the government in every election since 1964. Labour`s success in holding the seat in 2010 left Dartford as the best bellwether.


Current MP
LINDSAY HOYLE (Labour) Born 1957, Chorley, son of former MP Doug Hoyle. Educated at Lords College, Bolton. Chorley councillor 1980-1998. First elected as MP for Chorley in 1997. Chairman of Ways and Means (Deputy Speaker) since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18922 (38%)
Lab: 21515 (43%)
LDem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4%)
Oth: 359 (1%)
MAJ: 2593 (5%)
2005*
Con: 17506 (35%)
Lab: 25131 (51%)
LDem: 6932 (14%)
MAJ: 7625 (15%)
2001
Con: 16644 (35%)
Lab: 25088 (52%)
LDem: 5372 (11%)
UKIP: 848 (2%)
MAJ: 8444 (18%)
1997
Con: 20737 (36%)
Lab: 30607 (53%)
LDem: 4900 (8%)
Oth: 143 (0%)
MAJ: 9870 (17%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ROB LOUGHENBURY (Conservative) Educated at Durham University. Communications consultant.
LINDSAY HOYLE (Labour) See above.
STEPHEN FENN (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954. Educated at Northgate School and Bath University. Systems analyst. South Ribble councillor 1983-1985, Chorley councillor 2002-2004. Contested Manchester Wythenshawe 1992, Blackburn 1997, Chorley 2001, 2010.
MARK SMITH (UKIP) Works in electrical manufacting sector.
ALISTAIR STRAW (Green)
ADRIAN MAUDSLEY (Independent)
Links
Comments - 83 Responses on “Chorley”
  1. I am a Tory but your moaning self regarding rants are equally parodic… You clearly took my remarks about undergrad guardian readers to heart. They weren’t aimed at anyone in particular

  2. I am a Tory but your moaning self regarding rants are equally parodic… You clearly took my remarks about undergrad guardian readers to heart. They weren’t aimed at anyone in particular… A Snowflake?

  3. My parents, my friends are guardian readers. It’s not a bad thing and it doesn’t make you ignorant. I don’t know if i could ever vote Tory. I don’t think i could live with the guilt.
    But i am sorry for snapping at you like that.

  4. Whoa folks lets calm down now don’t need to be throwing insults about.

  5. Hoyle seems to have bought into the same wrap arounds that the Tories have been doing.

    I’m told by the in laws he has a very convincing 4 page wrap around on the Chorley Guardian listing all his achievements over the years. Chorley Guardian is not a free paper so the audience it more limited but perhaps more inclined to take an interest in such things.

    I don’t have a UKPR reputation but if I did have one I would stake it on a Lab hold either bucking the national trend or simply within the UNS that existed even before that Yougov poll last night.

  6. Terrible news for his family

  7. Big day for Lindsay Hoyle – he is chairing PMQs for the first time, as Bercow is attending Michael Martin’s funeral.

  8. Hoyle elected Speaker tonight. He comfortably won Bryant in the final round (325 to 213)

  9. Just spotted that the Speaker is opposed by an Ind standing as Mark Brexit-Smith.

    I think Mark Smith was the Brexit Party candidate, before Hoyle was elected Speaker.

    No idea why Electoral Services allowed his deed poll changed name to appear on the ballot. AFAIK ElComm guidance is to bar that and it certainly wasn’t allowed in Clacton and elsewhere.

  10. Tomorrow’s front pages:

    Sun, Express, Mail endorse Cons.

    Mail & Guardian: Lab.

    Most regional/local and specialist papers don’t endorse either, but of those that do: 5 Cons, 1 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 LD.

  11. ‘Mail & Guardian: Lab’

    Jesus!

    Oh wait…I guess you meant the Daily Mirror.

  12. I did, sorry.

    The Sun has now changed its front page to an even more stark:

    “Save Britain” the lights will go out for good if Red Jez…

  13. The Scottish sun cant praise boris too much as it still sympathetic to the SNP.

  14. They usually are nuanced north of the Border or take a different line, but the Scottish Mail has backed Cons too.

  15. The Scottish mail has always been tory even during the era where a revival looked unlikely.

  16. The BBC is apparently going to experiment with putting exit poll-derived predictions for individual constituencies on its website.

    In 2015 and 2017 the ones showed on screen had some howlers so who knows.

  17. IIRC the Lib Dems gaining Gordon was one of their biggest howlers, and a few others I can’t quite remember.

  18. It predicted Tory gaining all the north east wales seats.
    In 2015 it had tory gain in Nottingham South.

  19. I’m pleased they are going to do this. I’d much prefer a stats based election night programme than a series of interviews with politicians hedging their bets and not saying anything.

    Referendum night for example they could have had a plus or minus voter numbers tally from what the 50:50 prediction said.

    Will be watching Sky or ITV at 10pm. BBC start the graphics with “Tory largest party” or “Tory landslide” which tells you nothing about the seat count.

  20. Tbf BBC has done that and got it wrong since 2005. [They’ve managed to get Wirral West wrong every time: predicting Esther would gain when she didn’t, then predicting she’d hold when she lost. But it was recount territory so predictions were a bit silly before even the verification.]

    But even Prescott said it was nonsense that Labour’s majority was set to fall by 100 – until the swing and gain in Battersea or Putney came in.

  21. “In 2015 it had tory gain in Nottingham South.”

    And Gedling.

    The BBC model had accurately picked up the excellent Tory performance in the East Midlands as a whole but couldn’t comprehend that a seat like Nottingham South was almost certainly not going to behave like Derby North or Amber Valley.

  22. A few local authorities have cocked up (again).

    Liverpool gave 50 voters ballot papers for the wrong seat(!)
    They have all been hand delivered letters asking them to return as their votes cast are void.

    Cardiff appears to have failed to add 200 students to the new Roll.

    There are also problems at 2 London boroughs: TH & Lewisham.

    2 polling stations in Sefton failed to open on time and one had no disabled access.

  23. Woeful stuff from the relevant authorities. Still, I don’t think any of the seats are marginals (unless Lab are going down to a real hammering lol).

  24. Hoyle is lucky he’s Speaker. This would’ve gone Tory given the swing in Lancs.

    Bookies were right re Indys:

    East Devon Wright 40%
    Beaconsfield Grieve 29%
    SW Herts Gauke 26%
    Birkenhead F Field 17%
    Broxtowe Soubry 8%
    Derby N Williamson 1&

    Of the defectors, Berger did well: 32% in Fincley & GG, just beating Chuka’s 31& in Cities of L & W.

    The oddest occupation I’ve seen for new MPs is dolphin trainer (Anglesey). Chair of K & C Cons.

  25. Some stats from Prof Goodwin:

    Just 21% of the electorate voted Labour (12% outside cities).

    52% of Lab MPs are now women (v 51% of voters)
    25% are BAME (v 12% of voters)
    10% are working class (v 30% of voters)

    25% of SNP MPs are gay. (v 2%)

  26. Are the brackets voters in general or Labour voters?

  27. Independents – Jason Zog… in Ashfield was a strong 2nd with 27%, despite YG MRP predicting only 5%.

  28. MRP is useless for independent candidates.

  29. Lancs: given the fairly-widely commented on gender gap at this election, far more than 52% of Labour voters will have been women. Possibly close to 60%.

  30. Matt W – it’s voters.

    PT – presumably Goodwin was eluding to why Lab performed so badly amongst men and men outside cities in particular.

    Because adult males are 88% white, 30% wc and 95% straight.

  31. Viewing the opening of Parliament a nice change and a relief to have someone understated and humble in the Chair.

    However I would say he’s not as articulate as Bercow, for instance doesn’t seem place enough emphasis on words and phrases where it is actually needed, something that Bercow was very good at (he was a little OTT, imo).

  32. Bercow has a great voice and an excellent sense of drama, and is just generally a lot more interesting and charismatic than Hoyle. That said, Hoyle is humble, understated and well liked, and should be an effective speaker in his own way.

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