Chipping Barnet

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25759 (48.6%)
Labour: 18103 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 2381 (4.5%)
Green: 2501 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4151 (7.8%)
Independent: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7656 (14.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) Born 1968, London. Educated at Francis Holland School and Bristol University. Former barrister and lecturer. Contested MEP for London 1999-2005. First elected as MP for Chipping Barnet in 2005. Shadow chief secretary 2005-2007, shadow transport secretary 2007-2010. Minister of State for Transport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24700 (49%)
Lab: 12773 (25%)
LDem: 10202 (20%)
UKIP: 1442 (3%)
Oth: 1491 (3%)
MAJ: 11927 (24%)
2005*
Con: 19744 (47%)
Lab: 13784 (33%)
LDem: 6671 (16%)
GRN: 1199 (3%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 5960 (14%)
2001
Con: 19702 (46%)
Lab: 17001 (40%)
LDem: 5753 (14%)
MAJ: 2701 (6%)
1997
Con: 21317 (43%)
Lab: 20282 (41%)
LDem: 6121 (12%)
Oth: 655 (1%)
MAJ: 1035 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) See above.
AMY TREVETHAN (Labour) Sales assistant. Barnet councillor since 2014.
MARISHA RAY (Liberal Democrat)
VICTOR KAYE (UKIP)
A M POPPY (Green) Contested Chipping Barnet 2005, Barnet and Camden 2012 London election.
MEHDI AKHAVAN (No description)
Links
Comments - 128 Responses on “Chipping Barnet”
  1. No more Brian Coleman then. Kicked out of the Tory Party following a meaning last night. Quite a lot of fellow Tories will not be sorry to see him go.

  2. While I did like his road policy of removing bumps and speed cushions I disliked almost everything else.

  3. Coleman always struck me as a fairly dislikeable self-publicist – he was almosat equally disliked across the political devide

    The stuff he said about Ted Heath was appalling – although Heath is so despised in today’s Tory Party that no one came to his defence

    Coleman’s removal might actually improve the Tories electoral fortunes in London

  4. He certainly shouldn’t have said personal things about Heath as he had no right to do so. Even though I think Heaths political style was rubbish I admire the fact that he kept his private life private and he should be respected for that.

    I doubt his removal will have that much effect considering the demographics of London.

  5. Con 45
    Lab 30
    Lib Dem 14
    Ukip 8
    Other 3

  6. Again, your prediction for UKIP is far too high for a London seat, a lot of jews around here also.

    I tend to think Labour might be a bit higher and Lib Dems a bit lower….a Tory majority in the 10-12% range maybe.

  7. Actually the Jewish population is much smaller here than in the other 2 Barnet seats, with the greatest exception being Totteridge. As it happens, one of my oldest friends is Jewish & will be voting UKIP in the next election – having supported Sarah Teather last time. I have no idea why he ever supported the LDs since he has always been anti-EU.

  8. I’d be surprised if this seat was close atall (10-15%).

  9. There is a rabbi prospective candidate for UKIP in the NW Euros.

  10. A number of the local branch chairmen in Hertfordshire are Jewish as is the chairman of Harrow UKIP and our councillor in that borough ( a defector from the Conservatives). There are no reasons why Jewish voters should not support UKIP (and plenty of good reasons why they should) but I agree with HH that generally they are likely to be a less favourable demographic for UKIP than some others

  11. Quite surprising IMO that a lot of this constituency has moved downmarket between 2001 and 2011 according to this map. (Unfortunately the top part of the constituency is not shown):

    http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2013/09/blogs/blighty/lrgedit.jpg

  12. http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/villiers-cleared-of-wrongdoing-over-lobbyist.22988922

    It appears as though Theresa Villiers and Pete Whitehead’s MP Anne Main have ‘fallen out’ here:

  13. ‘Quite surprising IMO that a lot of this constituency has moved downmarket between’

    Surprised Mill Hill has gone so downmarket

    My grandparents used to live in a very large house there and I remember it seeming very well-to-do to an outsider – although thjuis was 25-30 years ago

  14. Mill Hill isn’t in this constituency & I don’t think it’s gone noticeably downmarket either. It’s a major part of the Tory half of the Hendon constituency, along with Hendon itself & Edgware.

  15. CON HOLD MAJ : 9%
    CON 40
    LAB 31
    LD 14
    UKIP 8
    GRN 6

  16. Don’t think Labour will be as close as that – we’d probably be delighted to run the Tories that close.

  17. CON: 43%
    LAB: 33%
    LD: 10%
    UKIP: 9%
    GRN: 5%

  18. Somewhat alrming results for the Conservatives in Chipping Barnet:

    Con 13263 (39.3%)
    Lab 11760 (34.9%)
    Gre 4200 (12.4%)
    LD 2332 (6.9%)
    UKIP 1514 (4.5%)

    The Conservatives carried High Barnet, Totteridge, and Oakleigh outright. Labour carried Coppetts, Underhill and East Barnet outright. Brunswick Park elected two Labour councillors and one Tory. So Labour has one more councillor in the constituency than the Tory party has.

  19. The boundary between the eastern part of the seat is seemless with Southgate (much of Brunswick Park Ward is indeed postally “Southgate, London N14”), which is a seat where the Conservatives underperformed.

  20. Oh yes there’s little doubt that the population of Brunswick Park ward is rather similar to that in some neighbouring Southgate wards. It does I think have a larger Cypriot population than any other in Barnet & the Labour victor of the by-election in the ward may well have been helped by his Cypriot origins

  21. “So Labour has one more councillor in the constituency than the Tory party has.”

    Whereas the Conservatives have a majority of councillors in the other two, more marginal, Barnet constituencies.

  22. Barnet, popular votes:

    Con 39,302 (39.01%)
    Lab 36,213 (35.95%)
    Green 11,310 (11.23%)
    LD 8,115 (8.06%)
    UKIP 4,433 (4.40%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -1.82%
    Lab +5.72%
    Green +5.02%
    LD -11.56%
    UKIP +4.40%

  23. Doesn’t look too bad for the Tories (Barnet wide).
    The council majority is tight though. If they do a good job then they may stand a good chance should there be any by-elections.

  24. Con hold 6000

  25. Theresa Villiers is the current Secretary of State for Northern Ireland but I’m starting to think the next one may well be a member of the Democratic Unionist Party.

  26. I don’t think so. It would cause uproar in Northern Ireland to have any of the unionist/nationalist parties acting as Secretary of State for the whole area. The SDLP won’t fulfill the role for Labour either.

  27. It could be a UKIP MP of course…

  28. I agree with Mr Nameless. Moreover, the DUP have made it perfectly plain that they cannot & will not join any government/cabinet. Their support can only ever be on a supply & confidence basis.

    It is increasingly looking like UKIP may only end up with 1-2 MPs. Even in a very tight minority government that will give them basically zero influence. If Farage is not elected and stands down as promised, their vote may well collapse.

  29. CON hold 4600

  30. Conservative Hold. 8,000 maj

  31. A handsome swing to Labour here, this seat is now more marginal than Battersea.

  32. Yes out of the three Barnet seats this was by far the worst for the Tories perhaps due to it neighbouring Enfield and being further from the centre thus not experiencing gentrification. The demographics appear to shifting against the Tories in this seat at least somewhat, though not on the same scale as Enfield, unlike Finchley and Hendon where there appears to be no or little Labour trend.

  33. The Conservative vote share did at least hold up here, unlike in Chingford & Woodford Green, but that Labour rise was big.

    Cons 48.6 (-0.2)
    Lab 34.1 (+8.9)
    UKIP 7.8 (+5.0)
    Green 4.7 (+2.7)
    LD 4.5 (-15.7)

    A 2005 style result in much better national circumstances for the Conservatives tells its own story.

  34. Labour did pretty well in the locals last year taking a few wards falling in this seat but I didn’t expect a swing their way in the general election.

  35. Surprised that Theresa Villiers is among the six cabinet members backing the leave campaign. I’ve never seen/read anything indicating that she has Eurosceptic leanings.

  36. @Neil

    She had been widely expected to back Brexit in the press. But as a constituent of hers I am a little surprised at this – though she has always called herself a Eurospectic in her campaign literature, and was not a fan of the whole thing whilst an MEP, she has up to now been extremely loyal to Cameron and I thought that would win through. There is also the factor that it is hard to argue Brexit is in Northern Ireland’s interests – some other previously ‘Eurosceptic’ ministers do appear to have put their briefs first.

    I suppose the main reason we haven’t heard more from her on the subject is that she joined the shadow cabinet six months after becoming an MP, and so has never really had the opportunity to speak about things other than her brief.

  37. It has been reported by the Barnet Bugle blog (not always a totally reliable source so confirmation must be awaited) that the Labour general election candidate, Amy Trevethan, is to resign from the council. This would trigger a by-election in Underhill ward, which is traditionally uber-marginal, for 5th May. This will be the first time I’ve had the chance to vote in a by-election of any kind, albeit it will be held on the same day as the mayoral and London Assembly election.

  38. Now confirmed.

  39. In 2002, 2006 and 2010 Labour and the Tories were virtually tied. On each occasion the Tories took two seats and Labour one. In 2014 Labour finally broke the deadlock by taking a clean sweep, though the Tories still weren’t so far behind even though this was comfortably UKIP’s best ward in Barnet (their sole candidate polled over 1000 votes). That it was UKIP’s best ward gives you a clue about the territory – whilst most of Chipping Barnet is middle class suburban territory this includes the Dollis Valley Estate, albeit this is currently undergoing significant gentrification which when complete will probably make the ward safely Tory. It also includes some much nicer housing going up towards High Barnet, which is probably where the bulk of the Tory vote has usually come from. The mayoral election should help because I think Zac will do well round here but a Tory gain is far from a certainty.

    The parties will fight this hard given the state of the council majority. The Tories won a majority of 1 in 2014 over Labour and the sole left-leaning Lib Dem which they have managed to hold on to for the last two years. At some point you’d think they might lose a by-election somewhere, especially if the govt loses popularity and given that this council administration have at times not been especially popular themselves, so the Tories will be very keen to have more of a cushion.

  40. I will have four votes tomorrow, including the council by-election. I have absolutely no idea which way that will go – the LDs had the most impressive leaflet, showing real understanding of uber-local issues, but I suspect it will be v. tight between CON and LAB as this ward has often been.

  41. A higher turnout usually benefits Labour.

  42. The by-election result was as follows:

    Jess Brayne (LAB) – 2314
    Lesley Evans (CON) – 1979
    Barry Ryan (UKIP) – 459
    Duncan Macdonald (LD) – 452
    Phil Fletcher (GRN) – 387

    LAB hold, majority 335.

    By Underhill standards that’s a landslide! UKIP, who had over 1000 votes on a lower turnout in 2014, fell back significantly.

  43. There’s been very little comment on UKIP apart from their gains in the Welsh assembly. But surely their net gain of just 26 seats in English Council elections must be considered a major disappointment. The biggest winners in the council elections have been the LibDems who have gained 35.

  44. Yup, not exactly comparable (due to not all councils being contested each year) but UKIP didn’t get remotely close to the 139 gains they recorded in 2013, 163 in 2014 and 176 in 2015. Their vote share has held up reasonably well, however.

  45. True, but is there anything to be made of UKIP’s ‘disappointing’ Projected National Vote Share (of 12%) compared to the average from Westminster opinion polls of 15-16%?

    I’ve also noticed that their London Mayoral performance of 3.6% fell below anything I’d seen in the ten or so London Mayor polls, where they were in the range of 4-7%, and had been favourites to finish 3rd.

    There may be a significant polling trend here, because UKIP were certainly overestimated in both 2014 Euro election polls and in online polls leading up to the 2015GE.

  46. Mayoral result here (first preferences, excluding postal):

    Goldsmith 12462 43.9%
    Khan 10301 36.3%

    For possibly the first time in any election (I haven’t checked but it seems probable), this makes Chipping Barnet the most Labour-inclined of the three Barnet seats.

  47. Which may have something to do with these demographics:

    Finchley = 26.5% Hindu / Jewish
    Hendon = 24.7% Hindu / Jewish
    Chipping = 11.8 Hindu / Jewish

  48. As recently as 2010 the majority in Chipping Barnet was 11927 and in Hendon just 106 – though in part that may reflect Andrew Dismore getting a strong personal vote that allowed Labour do better than they ought to have done given the national picture then.

  49. Richard- indeed also it is arguable (though I defer to others’ local knowledge) that Hendon and Garden Suburb lie just south enough to have caught some of the Hampstead gentrification effect- whereas Chipping Barnet appears to be experiencing classic suburban decline.

  50. @Tory I don’t have any specific local knowledge think its almost certain that that is the case. A ward like West Hendon (a formally Labour ward) for example is almost certainly trending Tory. For example the large West Hendon estate there has been (or is in the process of being) knocked down and redeveloped. While in the less wealthy parts of Chipping Barnet there is probably signs of suburban decline in wards like Underhill, Brunswick Park, East Barnet and Coppetts. The more affluent parts like Totteridge remain staunchly Tory though.

    The Tories position does appear to be stabilising/improving in Northern Hillingdon, Harrow and in Western and Southern Barnet while their decline continues in Eastern Barnet, Enfield, Waltham Forest and Redbridge.

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