Chipping Barnet

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25759 (48.6%)
Labour: 18103 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 2381 (4.5%)
Green: 2501 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4151 (7.8%)
Independent: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7656 (14.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) Born 1968, London. Educated at Francis Holland School and Bristol University. Former barrister and lecturer. Contested MEP for London 1999-2005. First elected as MP for Chipping Barnet in 2005. Shadow chief secretary 2005-2007, shadow transport secretary 2007-2010. Minister of State for Transport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24700 (49%)
Lab: 12773 (25%)
LDem: 10202 (20%)
UKIP: 1442 (3%)
Oth: 1491 (3%)
MAJ: 11927 (24%)
2005*
Con: 19744 (47%)
Lab: 13784 (33%)
LDem: 6671 (16%)
GRN: 1199 (3%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 5960 (14%)
2001
Con: 19702 (46%)
Lab: 17001 (40%)
LDem: 5753 (14%)
MAJ: 2701 (6%)
1997
Con: 21317 (43%)
Lab: 20282 (41%)
LDem: 6121 (12%)
Oth: 655 (1%)
MAJ: 1035 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) See above.
AMY TREVETHAN (Labour) Sales assistant. Barnet councillor since 2014.
MARISHA RAY (Liberal Democrat)
VICTOR KAYE (UKIP)
A M POPPY (Green) Contested Chipping Barnet 2005, Barnet and Camden 2012 London election.
MEHDI AKHAVAN (No description)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Chipping Barnet”
  1. Iain Dale reveals how his homosexuality prevented him from winning the candidacy for this seat in 2005:

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1109364397493886976

  2. Thressa Villers has been appointed DEFRA. Another person getting a remarkable promotion.

  3. If You Gov’s MRP is to be believed, this is Labour’s best chance of a gain from the Tories. Their figures show it as 41% each.

  4. Im skepticl of that as MRP doesn’t take into account voters religion. Possibly people who are Jewish here won’t vote labour when they other demographic indicator indicates they would. If I remember rightly in 2017 MRP over-predicted Labour in the three Barnet seats. But it’s still possible.

  5. ~Sceptical.

  6. Well Lab were only 0.6% behind in 2017 so I can see the logic.

    It’s not inconceivable that Lab could win seats like this whilst Cons win an OM.

    Though if you’re saying there’s a high % of Jews here . . .?

  7. The data on this page shows Chipping Barnet constituency as only 7% Jewish in the last census, and Jewish voters were reckoned to have strongly backed the Tories in 2017.

  8. True but presumably you gov might think more of them than will with switch like in some other london seats.

  9. My point is that the proportion of Jewish Labour voters here in 2017 was already only a small fraction of the 7% Jewish population.

  10. Yes, there is not that much left fruit for the Tories to pick in terms of the Jewish population; in fact given the seat’s marginality it was that population that probably kept it in the blue column last time.

    I think, if there is a difference between 2017 and 2019, it is that the anti-Semitism issues in the Labour Party have escalated to the point where it’s not just Jews who care about them any more, it’s also people with Jewish friends etc, which there will be a lot of in a seat with a reasonable Jewish constituency. But the underlying demographics are good for Labour, and they might up winning regardless.

  11. Chipping Barnet namedropped here, in an article focusing on the suspicions of many Labour members that the party’s seat-targeting strategy is too optimistic, and heavily biased towards Corbyn’s outriders.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    In particular, there’s a complaint that Chipping Barnet isn’t getting a fraction of the attention of neighbouring Chingford and Woodford Green, despite being on paper an easier target.

  12. Not a surprise Emma Whysell, labour’s candidate here, is not a corbynitsta while Chingford and Uxbridge are.
    Villers is in the cabinet so if she did lose it still be a story – I did read that the Tories are flooding it with resources to try and hold it.

  13. I predict Lab gain here.

  14. According to YouGov, Theresa Villiers is now behind in this seat. IDs and Raab are also in very close races, and Alok Sharma is also going to be pushed pretty close.

  15. Labour shadow cabinet members and others on the payroll campaigning here today.

  16. It would be somewhat ironic if Labour’s one gain in the entire election was a seat with one of the highest Jewish populations in the country, but we live in strange times

    Actually for the first throughout the entire campaign I’m beginning to think that Johnson might not get his majority, but I think there’s plenty of Tory strategists thinking that too and as they have already shown this week, there is no depths to which they will not sink when it comes to getting their man back in Downing Street, so watch this space

    Today’s revised You Gov constituency poll, that shows that things aren’t all going Johnson’s way, might provide the jolt their lacklustre campaign has needed

  17. I saw a post where a local voter had been door knocked and handed a Villiers leaflet by Charles Walker, canvassing alone.
    Personally I find Walker more scary than Villiers.

  18. Theresa Villiers has been sacked as environment secretary

  19. “I’m from St Albans the Liberals will not take it not now not in the foreseeable future”
    Matt Wilson in 2017.

    Sorry, but it is remarkable when I find these ‘xx will never happen here’ predictions on the site which have turned out to be completely wrong. That said, the last published Almanac of British Politics in 2007 said Bishop Auckland (and other ‘red wall’ seats) “will never be Tory”. In hindsight, it’s extraordinary that such assertions were made, but at the time, it must have seemed unthinkable those seats would change hands.

  20. Haha, IIRC I expressed doubt that the Tories could win seats like Bishop Auckland as recently as summer 2019.

  21. With the size of the Labour majority then, that was rather rash of you! I think it highly unlikely Labour would ever win East Surrey (for example) – but I wouldn’t say never. To be fair to Matt, in April 2017 when he wrote that, the Lib Dems had only won 18.5% in St Albans at the previous election in 2015, putting them in third place. That was before Brexit, and they were 28.1% behind the Tory incumbent. Matt may have revised his stance after the 2017 result, when the LDs moved into second place, with a 10.9% margin. H Hemmelig was sceptical of the Tories winning some red wall seats. A lot of the post-2017 predictions on this site were based on the next election being in 2022, after Brexit had been resolved.

  22. Storm Brexit – which began in earnest in the Tory manifesto of 2015 – swept thru the political landscape, picked things up and tossed them around and has not dissipated.

  23. I will be honest. I had not revised my stance. Worth pointing out the Lib Dems came closer in 2010 than they had in 2017. Perhaps on the whole I was rather too down on the Lib Dems but historically the party huff and they puff and they choke. 2010 was their closest attempt but since the 70s the Liberals/Lib Dems have been claiming they could win this seat.

    I think I had thought I’d just seen it all with Walkingtons money 2010. If they couldn’t win with 10 foot campaign posters on every corner and handwritten direct mail to every house, how would they ever win.

    I was a bit jaded back then though and I’m now far more cynical. Saying that though I’m still fairly convinced it will be a straight forward tory gain in 2024

  24. It depends on what’s happening then, but if the government continue to experience bad press like they are now, they won’t win it back next time. Brexit has yet to really happen too.

  25. Alternatively this could become a North Norfolk situation where it is a Lib Dem citadel for as long as Daisy Cooper sticks around. I have heard nothing but praise for her as an individual candidate and parliamentarian.

  26. If Sunak is Tory leader in 2024, it’s plausible he might win back seats like St Albans and Putney which clearly dislike Boris and Brexit, whilst losing some of the red wall back to Labour. It’s clearly worrying for the Lib Dems also that they are close to falling behind the Greens now in the polls, though they’ve come back from that before, there are four long years before the next election for them to struggle to stay relevant. Next year’s local elections will be key for them.

  27. Like Clegg at the time I thought the annus horribilis of 2015 was likely to be a one off but even when things have looked good for the Lib Dem’s since – after last year’s Euro elections, they haven’t got anywhere near to the sort of numbers they were getting in the early 90s – let alone the noughties when they started to strengthen their parliamentary position.

    After three elections in the single digits things really do look decisively grim for the Lib Dem’s at the moment – and given they ultimately failed to prosper when the tories were governed by Boris and Labour Corbyn – neither of whom could be described moderate – it’s hard to imagine then doing any better under Starmer

    Not standing aside and backing the likes of green, guarke and Milton was ridiculous imo and slogans like bollocks to Brexit to just made the Lib dens look ameuteurish.

    The latest boundary changes will makes things worst for them too

  28. The irony is that the Libdems’ vote rose in most seats and they had some huge leaps in some Remain Tory seats.
    Here (and IDS in Chingford), the Tories were probably helped in a very tight spot by the anti-semitism thing.

  29. ‘Next year’s local elections will be key for them’.

    Agreed in theory but then I think back to the Euro and local elections in 2019 (where they did well). It didn’t seem to help them out much subsequently. I wonder if any polls are relevant frankly until Brexit is seen as ‘done’ and we are over the worst of this sodding pandemic.

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