Chipping Barnet

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25759 (48.6%)
Labour: 18103 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 2381 (4.5%)
Green: 2501 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4151 (7.8%)
Independent: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7656 (14.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) Born 1968, London. Educated at Francis Holland School and Bristol University. Former barrister and lecturer. Contested MEP for London 1999-2005. First elected as MP for Chipping Barnet in 2005. Shadow chief secretary 2005-2007, shadow transport secretary 2007-2010. Minister of State for Transport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24700 (49%)
Lab: 12773 (25%)
LDem: 10202 (20%)
UKIP: 1442 (3%)
Oth: 1491 (3%)
MAJ: 11927 (24%)
2005*
Con: 19744 (47%)
Lab: 13784 (33%)
LDem: 6671 (16%)
GRN: 1199 (3%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 5960 (14%)
2001
Con: 19702 (46%)
Lab: 17001 (40%)
LDem: 5753 (14%)
MAJ: 2701 (6%)
1997
Con: 21317 (43%)
Lab: 20282 (41%)
LDem: 6121 (12%)
Oth: 655 (1%)
MAJ: 1035 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) See above.
AMY TREVETHAN (Labour) Sales assistant. Barnet councillor since 2014.
MARISHA RAY (Liberal Democrat)
VICTOR KAYE (UKIP)
A M POPPY (Green) Contested Chipping Barnet 2005, Barnet and Camden 2012 London election.
MEHDI AKHAVAN (No description)
Links
Comments - 115 Responses on “Chipping Barnet”
  1. Peppermint Tea- yes I agree with that chatacterisation. There are also now early signs of Conservative decline on the northern edge of Bromley. Khan was less than 2 to 1 behind in Bromley Town, Plaistow, Copers Cope and even Kelsey & Eden Park (though that does exclude postal votes).

  2. Yes we may be beginning to see the start of the start of suburban decline in those northern 5 Tory wards furthest in (Kelsey and Eden Park, Copers Cope, Bromley Town, Plaistow and Sundridge, Mottingham and Chislehurst North) but as you say the Tory skew of the postal votes makes it look worse for the Tories than it actually is. But I wonder why Khan didn’t do better in Croydon? Being behind on first preferences there is a notably poor result considering how Labour North Croydon has become. Looking at the results it looks like Goldsmith got a fairly good showing in New Addington of all places… I wonder why that was.

  3. Khan also did abysmally in Havering, so no real sign of a Labour trend there.

  4. On the ground it is not immediately obvious what is driving the change though there may be something in the suburban decline theory that Tory suggests – the town has become increasingly dominated by charity shops and the like in recent years and the once popular market has gone into steep decline, perhaps signs of economic decline.

    At ward level it seems that Labour are doing well in the eastern parts of the seats that border Enfield Southgate (East Barnet, Brunswick Park, Coppetts). Brunswick Park has experienced a particularly startling change: in 2006 the lead Tory candidate got 2827 votes to 680 for the lead Labour candidate; in 2014 it elected two Labour Cllrs and one Tory, and this year Goldsmith only carried it, excluding postals, by 1671 to 1532.

  5. Theresa Villiers not being reported to have been sacked today ( and sackings from the cabinet seem to be complete) so i think she may be staying in the cabinet but maybe not in her current post.

  6. I’m very surprised that this drippy non entity has survived the cull. Meh.

  7. ‘I’m very surprised that this drippy non entity has survived the cull’

    I agree

    She has always struck me as decisively mediocre in terms of talent

  8. Maxim- quite a good summation lol.

  9. To be fair to Villiers- I’m even more surprised that McLoughlin has survived. And Mundel is the luckiest politician in the UK.

  10. I think McLoughlin and Mundell are good. Though I thought McLoughlin might be eased out due to his age. OK, Mundell has an essentially guaranteed post as only Scottish Tory MP but he’s not out of place.

  11. There is no reason why the Scottish Secretary has to represent a Scottish seat. But whilst there is a suitable candidate in a Scottish seat it makes PR sense that they get the job.

  12. Villiers is out.

    ‘I regret to say that I have left the Government. The new Prime Minister was kind enough to offer me a role but it was not one which I felt I could take on.’

  13. Oh right. Forced out then rather than just plain sacked.

  14. I wonder what role it was she declined? Cant have been a cabinet post.

  15. A complete cull of the Notting Hill set. Richard will be delighted,

  16. Own accord or forced out?

    Oh well, I liked her hair during the BBC coverage of the referendum. Very creative.

  17. Chipping Barnet is becoming Chipping Barnet and Mill Hill, gaining Mill Hill and Cockfosters and losing Brunswick Park and Coppetts. Will do a notional in the morning but should make it ultra-safe Tory.

  18. I’d be surprised if Villiers steps down, though not impossible. Burrowws ay have to fight the new Enfield very Ryan – I haven’t properly looked at that seat yet but probably tough for the Tories to win.

  19. Notional for the proposed Chipping Barnet and Mill Hill (Electoral Calculus figures):

    CON 27142 (53.25%)
    LAB 14786 (29.01%)
    UKIP 4369 (8.57%)
    LD 2322 (4.56%)
    GRN 2266 (4.45%)
    OTH 89 (0.17%)

    I think that the proposals here are quite sensible, unlike for some of the other seats in the area. There is no particular reason why Mill Hill shouldn’t be in Chipping Barnet rather than Hendon, whilst the addition of Cockfosters unites Hadley Wood which straddles the Barnet/Enfield border. My only slight gripe is the name – I don’t really understand why Mill Hill needs to be included in it, if we have to add an ‘and…’ to the existing name then surely it should be Cockfosters as that’s the ward from outside the borough, though I don’t see why it couldn’t keep its current name.

  20. An article in The Times today suggests Theresa Villiers is ‘number one on the hitlist’ for Remainers – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/revealed-the-remain-decapitation-strategy-3pcgdnqcs

    I’m not so convinced that is viable. I think it extremely improbable people round here would vote for Labour under Corbyn, and while the area has Lib Dem potential (the demographics are not so different from the SW London LD strongholds) they have always been third in GEs and never even had much strength at council level.

  21. When formulating such plans you have to kind of dismiss who the party leader is, if Corbyn stays and does as badly as polls suggest Labour aren’t going to be gaining seats anywhere so its pretty irrelevant whether “Corbyn would go down well” in a given area.

    That being said I am slightly curious as to why Villiers is the number one target, I suppose given that IDS is almost certain to retire in 2020 she is the most high profile Brexiter, representing a Remain area in a potentially vulnerable seat.

    As for Brexiters as a whole though there are easier targets especially for the Lib Dems. I imagine for example Maria Caulfield (Lewes) and Will Quince (Colchester) have both written their own obituaries with their Brexit stance. Libs will be out for blood in both cases.

    I’m also curious about Anne Main in St Albans, her seat is much more secure but the Libs are seemingly very well entrenched locally and St Albans was a very strong Remain vote, I believe both Pepps and Matt are both from St Albans so I wonder if they might have an opinion on that?

  22. Plop
    “REMAIN seats I could see the LDEMs taking in a by-election”

    If were just naming Remain seats that the Libs could win (regardless of where the incumbent Tory stood on the EU) then there are more obvious examples

    Kingston and Surbiton
    Twickenham
    Cheadle
    Bath

    The last one in particular looks like a near cert Lib Dem gain if not in a by-election then at the next election.

  23. I’m from St Albans the Liberals will not take it not now not in the foreseeable future

  24. Plop
    Whether Lab holds those seats depends entirely on national polling, re Bath though even if the Tories are riding high in the polls nationally the overwhelming Remain vote in Bath will make it a prime Lib Dem target and their strong local councillor base means they won’t be short of a presence, throw in the small majority, big Lab/Green vote to squeeze and the fact that the Tory MP has got in some trouble and I think it very unlikely the Tories will be able to hold it even if they win decisively nationally.

  25. “REMAIN seats I could see the LDEMs taking in a by-election:
    Oxford West & Abingdon
    St Albans
    Watford
    Winchester”

    Bit of an issue there; Watford voted to Leave.

  26. The Tories will struggle to win the new Stoke South seat which contains much of what is now Stoke Central – where the Tories performed poorly in the recent by-election.

    Derbyshire North East is set to be abolished and Bishop Aukland inherits bits of the Labour strongholds Sedgefield and Durham North West

    Bath and Cambridge would seem to be the most obvious Lib Dem targets but I feel there’s many more seats they should could give it a go as Mrs May pursues her Right-wing hard Brexit agenda

  27. The Tories did well to increase their share only marginally but that doesn’t mean the Tories will be in with a chance in 2020 at the very least

  28. You may well be marginally right about the boundary review St Albans will take Abbott’s Langley and Leavesden while losing Kings Langley. That benefits the Lib Dems more than the Tories marginally

  29. I agree with Plop that until the boundary changes go through we should assume boundaries will remain the same.

    That being said assuming the changes DO go through I think the Tories would really struggle in the new Stoke South. As well as losing some of the Tories better areas in the current Stoke South like Hanford and Blurton East to the new Staff West the seat also picks up most of Labs best areas from Stoke Central including the studenty Hanley Park which I believe these days is Labs strongest ward in Stoke.

  30. “The Tories will struggle to win the new Stoke South seat which contains much of what is now Stoke Central – where the Tories performed poorly in the recent by-election.”

    @Tim
    I totally disagree their result in Stoke Central was very good considering that they didn’t try particularly hard and the media/bookies had hyped up the whole contest as Lab vs. UKIP. Most commentators on here and elsewhere were convinced the Tory vote share would have slumped into the teens if you had suggested that it would rise most people would have laughed.

    Relatively speaking the Tories had by far the best result in Stoke Central. Labour the official ‘opposition’ fell back and UKIP did advance by slightly more but this was well below expectations same with the Lib Dems (arguably they under exceeded expectations given how their supporters tried to hype them). It was the Tories that were the only party that massively overshot expectations.

    But nevertheless I agree with the general point Stoke South on the new boundaries (the notional Labour majority nearly doubles compared to the old Stoke South) will be very difficult for the Tories to win unless Labour goes into complete and utter meltdown (which as of now cannot be ruled out).

  31. Labour candidate for GE2017 is Emma Whysall.

  32. Less than three weeks to polling day and we’re yet to get a Lab leaflet here. Nothing from the LDs either, though their candidate was leafleting at High Barnet tube the other day and outside Barnet College earlier in the week. We’ve had three Theresa Villiers leaflets – in contrast to the May/Brexit heavy leaflets in Leave seats they have little mention of Brexit or the PM and are mostly focused on Theresa V’s record.

  33. Been out on the doors here. Tory hold and comfortably but there is a labour base too

  34. We’ve only had 1 leaflet (tory) in Croydon South. Not seen a single canvesser or poster. Wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people didn’t even know there was an election campaign underway. The leaflet was mainly on local issues and hardly mentioned May or Brexit.

  35. So I just got about got away with my vote for the Lib Dems here, cast on the basis I could afford a little protest…

    In the context of elsewhere in London I guess Cons did well to hold the three Barnet seats. Jewish vote may have been a factor.

    Interestingly this seat is now the most marginal of the three for the first time.

  36. PLOPWELLIAN TORY
    So while I can see Chipping Barnet and Enfield, Southgate going Labour in a landslide, they’re not going to win them in 2020.
    Victoria Borwick was a Leaver, but I don’t see Labour getting anywhere near in Kensington.
    The Remainers got their ‘Portillo moment’ when Goldsmith was ousted in Richmond Park.
    Here’s an equally far-fetched Leavers’ hit list
    Paul Farrely – Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Natascha Engel – North East Derbyshire
    Ian Lucas – Wrexham
    Mary Creagh – Wakefield
    Rob Flello – Stoke-on-Trent South
    Ruth Smeet – Stoke-on-Trent North
    Angela Smith – Penistone & Stocksbridge
    April 7th, 2017 at 4:10 pm

    Hmmm!

  37. This to me was one of the extraordinary results of the night. Labour had zero idea they had a chance and you can bet your bottom dollar that momentum will be all over this next time. I also think Boris is in danger in Uxbridge.

  38. How in Christ’s name did Labour come closer to winning and the Tories losing this than either Hendon or Finchley and Golders Green?!!!

  39. Interestingly this seat is now the most marginal of the three for the first time

    Looks like a labour gain…more of a wealth effect (higher house prices) closer to inner london, which counteracts demography.

  40. Villiers may even stand down next time to avoid a possible defeat if the next election doesn’t happen for at least two years or so.

  41. Maybe so but that’s a seat Labour previously held for eight years- here they’ve still never won but got closer this year than they did in either 1997 or 2001!!!

  42. But it’s as you say a combination of demographic factors and the London-wide swing towards Labour.

  43. I am a Chipping Barnet resident, so feel I can talk with some authority on this, though I wouldn’t claim to have all the answers.

    First, the background. Things have been trending in this direction over the last few elections in Barnet. This first became evident from the 2014 council elections when Lab won more seats than the Cons in Chipping Barnet, and the Cons only held the council by the narrowest of margins thanks to stronger performances elsewhere. In 2015 the three Barnet seats had much more similar results to each other than in the past, and even more so at the 2016 mayoral election. It now seems the cross-over has happened.

    That said, Peter Crawford is surely right that Labour thought they had no chance. In fact the LDs (who only just saved their deposit) seemed to run a more active campaign, at least in the ward I live in. I did not get one Labour leaflet through my letterbox. On election day I did see a gaggle of Labour leafleters at High Barnet station – a surprising number of commuters seemed to be willingly taking the leaflets, which did make me think they might not do too badly, though I would never have predicted a majority of 350.

    I would attribute the change to a variety of factors:

    1/ Demographic. This is important to some extent, but I wouldn’t say it is a very important factor, and certainly not since 2015. Chipping Barnet hasn’t seen the kind of change Enfield North, Enfield Southgate or Ilford North have. Most of the seat remains classic middle class suburbia, with areas of extreme affluence around Totteridge and Hadley Wood (which straddles the border with Enfield Southgate). The BME population is small by London standards. What change has happened is mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the seat – Brunswick Park and East Barnet wards, both shock losses in 2014. But I don’t think this is enough to explain the change in fortunes since Theresa Villiers’ majority was almost 12,000 in 2010.

    There have been some new developments which may have helped bolster the Con vote in Hendon and F&GG, but again I wouldn’t get carried away with the importance of these.

    2/ Change in middle class voting patterns. This is probably the most important factor in explaining the 2017 result, but doesn’t really explain why the order of safety of the Barnet seats, all of which are mainly middle class, has flipped.

    3/ The MP. Villiers has not often been very visible in the constituency, and this probably hurt her, especially given her Brexit vote (Chipping Barnet was around 59% Remain). To some extent she had an excuse as NI Sec for four years, and since then has become more visible than she was previously. But I doubt she had a positive personal vote, which the other two Barnet MPs may well have.

    4/ The Jewish vote. Of the three Barnet constituencies, Chipping Barnet has the smallest number of Jewish voters, and this may have made a difference in causing a bigger swing than Hendon and F&GG. A Jewish Chronicle poll during the campaign suggested 77% of Jews went Tory, and given the levels of hostility to Labour I saw from Jewish friends/relatives of mine that wouldn’t surprise me particularly (even though both the Hendon and F&GG Lab candidates were Jewish, whilst the Tory MPs are not Jewish despite being very strong supporters of the Jewish community and Israel).

  44. @Plopwellian Tory

    Probably. As I say I would never have predicted it being this close. I did always think the Cons were unlikely to do particularly well in London, but I didn’t foresee quite the extent of the hammering they got in much of outer as well as inner London.

    Now we’ve had this result it does look poised for a Lab gain next time, when they’ll actually have a campaign and the residual LD and Green votes should squeeze in their favour.

  45. I remember following the barnet council elections on Twitter. Its never been held by labour and the last ward wasnt declared until quite late it was nail bitting stuff

  46. @Matt Wilson

    Yes, it was quite something. It all came down to Childs Hill ward, usually the Lib Dems sole stronghold in Barnet, but where both Lab and Con had a chance given their collapse. In the end it went 1 LD, 2 Con to give the Cons a majority of 1. Since then the Cons have managed to avoid any by-elections or defections and so held on to their majority.

    Looking ahead to next year there must surely now be a good chance of Lab winning a majority for the first time (they previously headed a coalition with the LDs from 1994 to 2002).

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