Chipping Barnet

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25759 (48.6%)
Labour: 18103 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 2381 (4.5%)
Green: 2501 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4151 (7.8%)
Independent: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7656 (14.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) Born 1968, London. Educated at Francis Holland School and Bristol University. Former barrister and lecturer. Contested MEP for London 1999-2005. First elected as MP for Chipping Barnet in 2005. Shadow chief secretary 2005-2007, shadow transport secretary 2007-2010. Minister of State for Transport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24700 (49%)
Lab: 12773 (25%)
LDem: 10202 (20%)
UKIP: 1442 (3%)
Oth: 1491 (3%)
MAJ: 11927 (24%)
2005*
Con: 19744 (47%)
Lab: 13784 (33%)
LDem: 6671 (16%)
GRN: 1199 (3%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 5960 (14%)
2001
Con: 19702 (46%)
Lab: 17001 (40%)
LDem: 5753 (14%)
MAJ: 2701 (6%)
1997
Con: 21317 (43%)
Lab: 20282 (41%)
LDem: 6121 (12%)
Oth: 655 (1%)
MAJ: 1035 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA VILLIERS (Conservative) See above.
AMY TREVETHAN (Labour) Sales assistant. Barnet councillor since 2014.
MARISHA RAY (Liberal Democrat)
VICTOR KAYE (UKIP)
A M POPPY (Green) Contested Chipping Barnet 2005, Barnet and Camden 2012 London election.
MEHDI AKHAVAN (No description)
Links
Comments - 118 Responses on “Chipping Barnet”
  1. Iain Dale reveals how his homosexuality prevented him from winning the candidacy for this seat in 2005:

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1109364397493886976

  2. Thressa Villers has been appointed DEFRA. Another person getting a remarkable promotion.

  3. If You Gov’s MRP is to be believed, this is Labour’s best chance of a gain from the Tories. Their figures show it as 41% each.

  4. Im skepticl of that as MRP doesn’t take into account voters religion. Possibly people who are Jewish here won’t vote labour when they other demographic indicator indicates they would. If I remember rightly in 2017 MRP over-predicted Labour in the three Barnet seats. But it’s still possible.

  5. ~Sceptical.

  6. Well Lab were only 0.6% behind in 2017 so I can see the logic.

    It’s not inconceivable that Lab could win seats like this whilst Cons win an OM.

    Though if you’re saying there’s a high % of Jews here . . .?

  7. The data on this page shows Chipping Barnet constituency as only 7% Jewish in the last census, and Jewish voters were reckoned to have strongly backed the Tories in 2017.

  8. True but presumably you gov might think more of them than will with switch like in some other london seats.

  9. My point is that the proportion of Jewish Labour voters here in 2017 was already only a small fraction of the 7% Jewish population.

  10. Yes, there is not that much left fruit for the Tories to pick in terms of the Jewish population; in fact given the seat’s marginality it was that population that probably kept it in the blue column last time.

    I think, if there is a difference between 2017 and 2019, it is that the anti-Semitism issues in the Labour Party have escalated to the point where it’s not just Jews who care about them any more, it’s also people with Jewish friends etc, which there will be a lot of in a seat with a reasonable Jewish constituency. But the underlying demographics are good for Labour, and they might up winning regardless.

  11. Chipping Barnet namedropped here, in an article focusing on the suspicions of many Labour members that the party’s seat-targeting strategy is too optimistic, and heavily biased towards Corbyn’s outriders.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    In particular, there’s a complaint that Chipping Barnet isn’t getting a fraction of the attention of neighbouring Chingford and Woodford Green, despite being on paper an easier target.

  12. Not a surprise Emma Whysell, labour’s candidate here, is not a corbynitsta while Chingford and Uxbridge are.
    Villers is in the cabinet so if she did lose it still be a story – I did read that the Tories are flooding it with resources to try and hold it.

  13. I predict Lab gain here.

  14. According to YouGov, Theresa Villiers is now behind in this seat. IDs and Raab are also in very close races, and Alok Sharma is also going to be pushed pretty close.

  15. Labour shadow cabinet members and others on the payroll campaigning here today.

  16. It would be somewhat ironic if Labour’s one gain in the entire election was a seat with one of the highest Jewish populations in the country, but we live in strange times

    Actually for the first throughout the entire campaign I’m beginning to think that Johnson might not get his majority, but I think there’s plenty of Tory strategists thinking that too and as they have already shown this week, there is no depths to which they will not sink when it comes to getting their man back in Downing Street, so watch this space

    Today’s revised You Gov constituency poll, that shows that things aren’t all going Johnson’s way, might provide the jolt their lacklustre campaign has needed

  17. I saw a post where a local voter had been door knocked and handed a Villiers leaflet by Charles Walker, canvassing alone.
    Personally I find Walker more scary than Villiers.

  18. Theresa Villiers has been sacked as environment secretary

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