Maxim
Your clearly loving the boundary assistant 😀 Have I created a monster…

Apologies for the long and nerdy post but this is my detailed (non partisan) redo of the London constituencies (most are fairly nice but some horrible ones are necessary in South London). I can do an uber pro Tory partisan one if you want Maxim but there is no chance of it getting past the commission.

1)Upminster: Rainham and Wennington, Upminster, Cranham, Emerson Park, Squirral’s Heath, Harold Wood, Heaton, Gooshays.
2)Hornchurch and Chadwell Heath: South Hornchurch, Elm Park, Hacton, St Andrews, Highlands, Eastbrook, Heath, Whalebone, Chadwell Heath
3)Romford and Hainault: 5 remaining Havering wards, Aldborough, Hainault, Fairlop.
4)Ilford: unchanged (renamed from Ilford South)
5)Wanstead and Woodford: remaining Redbridge wards.
6)Dagenham: remaining B&D wards except Abbey and Gascoigne.
7)East Ham and Barking: Current + Custom House, Abbey, Gascoigne (-Little Ilford, Manor Park, Green Street E)
8)Poplar and Canning Town: Plaistow S, Canning Town (N,S), Stratford and Newtown, Bow E, Bromley N, Bromley S, Lansbury, Poplar.
9)Newham North: remaining Newham wards + Cann Hall.
10)Chingford and Walthamstow North: Waltham Forest part of current Chingford and Woodford Green + William Morris, Higham Hill, Chapel End.
11)Leyton and Walthamstow South: remaining Waltham Forest wards.
12)Limehouse: Blackwall and Cubitt Town, Island Gardens, Canary Wharf, Limehouse, Mile End, St. Dunstan’s, St. Katherine’s and Wapping, Shadwall, Whitechapel, Stepney Green.
13)Bethnal Green and Haggerston: remaining Tower Hamlets wards + Hoxton East and Shoreditch, De Beauvoir, London Fields, Haggerston.
14)Islington South: Current + Hoxton West
15)Hackney Central and Stoke Newington: Clissold, Stoke Newington, Hackney Downs, Shacklewell, Dalston, Hackney Central, Homerton, Victoria, Hackney Wick, King’s Park.
16)Tottenham South and Stamford Hill: remaining Hackney wards + Seven Sisters, Harringay, St. Anne’s, Tottenham Green, West Green.
17)Tottenham North and Edmonton: remaining wards from Tottenham + all of Edmonton (-Bush Hill Park, Ponders End).
18)Enfield Southgate: Current + Bush Hill Park.
19)Enfield North: Current + Ponders End
20)Horsey and Wood Green: Current (unchanged)
21)Islington North and Highgate: Current + Highgate
22)Holborn and St Pancras: Current (-Highgate)
23)Cities of London and Westminster: Current + Church Street, Regents Park and Lancaster Gate.
24)Westminster North and Queens Park: rest of Westminster North, Brent Part of Current Holborn and St Pancras + Kensal Green
25)Kensington and Chelsea: whole K&C borough
26)Hammersmith and Fulham: all of H&F borough except the northern four wards.
27)Acton and Shepard’s Bush: Remaining H&F wards + East Acton, Acton Central, South Acton, Southfield, Hanger Hill.
28)Brent Central: Current + Alperton (-Kensal Green)
29)Brent North: Current (-Alperton)
30)Hampstead: Camden part of Hampstead and Kilburn + Childs Hill, Golders Green, Garden Suburb.
31)Finchley and Hendon: Finchley Church End, East Finchley, West Finchley, Woodhouse, Mill Hill, Hendon, West Hendon, Colindale.
32)Chipping Barnet: Current (unchanged)
33)Edgware: Hale, Burnt Oak, Edgware(Barnet ward), Canons, Edgware(Harrow ward), Kenton East, Queensbury, Belmont, Stanmore Park.
34)Harrow Central: Harrow Weald, Wealdstone, Marlborough, Kenton West, Headstone S, Greenhill, West Harrow, Harrow on the Hill, Roxeth, Roxbourne.
35)Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Current + Headstone N, Rayners Lane (-Harefield, Ickenham).
36)Uxbridge and Ruislip South: Current + Harefield, Ickenham (-Yiewsley).
37)Hayes and Harlington: Current + Yiewsley
38)Ealing North: Current (unchanged)
39)Ealing Central and Brentford: Ealing Common, Ealing Broadway, Walpole, Northfield, Elthorne, Brentford, Syon, Osterley and Spring Grove, Isleworth.
40)Southall and Heston: remaining Ealing wards + Heston (E,C,W), Cranford.
41)Hounslow Central and Feltham: 4 Hounslow wards, 5 Felton/Hanworth wards.
42)Twickenham: Current (unchanged).
43)Richmond and Chiswick: Richmond borough south of the river + 3 Chiswick wards + Coombe Hill
44)Kingston and Surbiton: Current seat + Canbury, Tudor (-Old Malden, St James, Beverley).
45)Malden and Wimbledon South: 4 reamaining Kingston wards + all of the current Wimbledon constituency except Village and Wimbledon Park.
46)Putney and Wimbledon North: current Putney + Village, Wimbledon Park.
47)Battersea and Clapham: Current Battersea + Clapham Common, Clapham Town (-Balham)
48)Balham and Tooting: Current Tooting + Balham (-Furzedown).
49)Vauxhall and Camberwell: Prince’s, Bishop’s, Oval, Stockwell, Vassall, Newington, Camberwell Green, Brunswick Park, South Camberwell.
50)Brixton: Larkhall, Ferndale, Coldharbour, Brixton Hill, Tulse Hill, Herne Hill, Thurlow Park, Gipsy Hill.
51)Streatham: Remaining Lambeth wards + Longthornton, Norbury, Upper Norwood.
52)Mitcham and Morden: Current seat + Furzedown, Wandle Valley (-Longthornton)
53)Sutton and Cheam: Current seat + St Helier
54)Carshalton and Coulsdon: Remainder of Carshalton and Wallington except the 2 Beddington wards + Purley, Coulsdon (E,W), Kenley.
55)Croydon South and Beddington: Beddington (N,S), Broadgreen, Addiscombe, Fairfield, Waddon, Croham, Sanderstead.
56)Addington and West Wickham: Selsdon and Ballards, Heathfield, Shirley, Fieldway, New Addington, West Wickham, Hayes and Coney Hall, Bromley Common and Keston.
57)Croydon North: Current seat + Ashburton, Woodside, Crystal Palace (-Broadgreen, Norbury, Upper Norwood)
58)Bromley and Beckenham: Penge and Cator, Clock House, Kelsey and Eden Park, Copers Cope, Shortlands, Bromley Town, Plaistow and Sundridge.
59)Orpington: Current seat + Cray Valley West.
60)Sidcup and Chislehurst: Current Old Bexley and Sidcup + remaining 3 Bromley wards (-East Wickham, Falconwood and Welling)
61)Bexleyheath and Crayford: Current seat + East Wickham, Falconwood and Welling (-North End)
62)Erith and Thamesmead: Current seat + North End
63)Eltham: Current seat + Woolwich Common, Glyndon (-Kidbrooke with Hornfair)
64)Greenwich and Deptford: Current Greenwich and Woolwich +Kidbrooke with Hornfair, Evelyn, New Cross (-Woolwich Common, Glyndon)
65)Lewisham East: Current Seat + Lewisham Central
66)Lewisham West: Remaining Lewisham wards.
67)Bermondsey and Old Southwark: Current seat + Faraday (-Newington)
68)Dulwich and Peckham: Remaining Southwark wards

I am pretty happy with this arrangement (from a non partisan perspective) though the seats around Croydon, Mitcham, Streatham are a bit of a mess though due to the very large ward sizes in Croydon it is extremely difficult to create constituencies just inside Croydon itself, I suspect if the commission do decide to split wards it will be here. It is either that or something like I proposed (either way makes very little partisan difference anyway).

This is a fairly non partisan map for example Labour is helped by getting a safer seat in Harrow, a safer seat around North Westminster, better Enfield North, a more marginal Finchley with a still marginal seat around Finchley, a safe Eltham seat, an actually winnable Battersea, all safe seats around the Ealing/Hounslow area etc. On the other hand the Tories are helped by likely getting 3 seats out of the Havering area (though 2 significantly more marginal), a Hampstead that is essentially safe, a much better seat in the Tooting area, two safe seats in the Wimbledon/Putney/Malden area, much more reliable seats in the South/Central of Croydon, a better seat than Ilford North in the form of Wanstead and Woodford etc. Essentially this is a pretty fair map that may be something like a neutral commission may come up with.

Peppermintea
The big issue there is the BC isn’t allowed to cross the Thames except where it dips into Richmond (which is kinda stupid) so a Richmond and Chiswick seat would almost certainly not be allowed. I actually quite like the seat but its one of the BC’s unbreakable rules.

@rivers10 have the boundary commission actually ever said anything about crossing the Thames there? If you don’t do this you are forced to lump several Hounslow or Feltham wards onto Hampton (which would not be popular to say the least) and would ruin the Twickenham constituency which is the rights size and probably shouldn’t be touched.

One change I have just made to my above arrangement is I have switched Harrow Weald into Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner and moved Rayners Lane into Harrow Central because it looks nicer (although it does make Harrow Central even better for Labour).

Nevertheless if I was a non partisan boundary commission I would be quite happy with my 68 constituencies.

Pepperminttea
I’m not sure if they have ever explicitly stated you can’t but they have a rule (which admittedly they often break) about respecting geographical divides and the Thames is a pretty obvious one, they have vetoed seats in the past fro crossing much smaller rivers put it that way. Since time immemorial that boundary has been preserved with no seat crossing the Thames I’m not sure if they’ll ever break it..

Yes this does force a pretty nasty pairing between Richmond and Hounslow but the BC proposed just that last time with a “Teddington and Hampton” seat.

Yeah I agree they will probably create a very odd seat around Hampton, Teddington and Hanworth although I think we both agree that avoiding this by putting Richmond with Chiswick is a far nicer option which gives you Twickenham, Richmond and Chiswick, Hounslow Central and Feltham, Southall and Heston, Ealing Central and Brentford (or something like that) which are all ok seats.

The post-2011 rules for parliamentary boundaries cite constituency size as the only consideration. I am sure that the Boundary Commission won’t be too squeamish about crossing the Thames if they deem it necessary. Remember Mersey Banks?

Andy
The electoral figure is the primary focus but they still have other rules such as avoiding cross county seats at all costs, totally banning cross region seats or enclaves within seats etc

Mersey Banks (monstrosity as it was) actually got hugely modified in the consultation period and in the end didn’t actually cross the Mersey, it just slithered along the length of it, crossing three boroughs in the process.

IDS has endorsed Andrea Leadsom.

Lord Freud has resigned as a DWP Minister.

With McVey, Grayling and IDS gone, he was the last Minister still in the Dept who introduced Universal Credit and the welfare to work companies such as A4e.

“At least in the case of the Tories IDS knew his time was up.”

And that was even though he was polling better than his predecessor and as well as his successor, who never received the same flak. It would be interesting to know how well IDS would have actually polled if his party had stuck with him / got behind him. He was starting to move onto quite interesting, traditional Labour, ground – looking at sustainable models in Europe that could be used for the NHS, and taking what seemed a genuine interest in lowbrow estates in places like Glasgow.

He was a poor communicator, particularly compared to Blair, but I think the above type policies / noises made in those areas, partly mitigated this in the eyes of the electorate – hence he didn’t poll that terribly all things considered. However, his more socially liberal colleagues decided he must go as there was a vocal minority of the public/celebrities generating a lot of negative publicity for his socially conservative stances (which he was too OTT with, insisting on 3-line whips for votes on civil partnerships that he was never going to defeat anyway).

I always felt he might have done better at the 2005 election than Howard – but it’s also possible that Blair might have wrong-footed him in the campaign more than Howard, and caused his poll numbers to fall a lot more at the last hurdle I suppose.

I remember the time well and I am pretty sure that Portillo would have been a touchy-feely disaster – they would then have lost part of the hard core loyalists as well as other groups they’d done well with in the 80s that had already been lost to Blair. There would have been no reason for metro types to vote Portillo in the main, as they were still broadly ok with Blair in 2001.

Doubt JS would have done quite as well as Blair in 1997, obviously would have got a majority government though.

DM would have done a little better than Ed I believe, and, more importantly, the military consensus would still exist and we would be less a bunch of pussyfooting pacifists now.

Conservative Estimate, the three Hertfordshire seats you mention were difficult for Labour to win even in past times.

Labour won St Albans (on 1997 boundaries which notably did not include rock solidly-Conservative Harpenden that time) from third place, not second.

Hemel Hempstead (where I was the Green Party candidate in 2015) was won by Labour in October 1974 but not February 1974, and even then by only 485 votes (partly because Berkhamsted and Tring were also in the constituency), and even in 1997 (the most Labour-friendly boundaries of a Dacorum-based constituency to date) they needed a considerable swing to win. The same thing applies to Welwyn Hatfield.

IDS isn’t very bright nor particularly popular locally, but given the polls he is sure to hold on. It will be interesting to see what happens to this seat in the boundary review.

Labour candidate for GE2017 is Bilal Mahmood.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2017/05/iain-duncan-smith-rapped-eminem-live-tv-and-it-s-horrific-it-sounds

The folk at the New Statesman feel this is toe-curlingly bad; personally I think it’s well into “so bad, it’s good” territory.

IDS’ majority slashed to under 2 438 (5.2 %). Shame he didn’t lose though

I’m guessing on boundary changes it would be notionally Labour now?

It depends. If a Labour Majority occurs then yes it would fall but if Labour go backward then it is unlikely it be gained.

The latest opinion poll would see a Labour gain here.

Given how marginal this is now, I’m guessing Labour managed to make in-roads in Chingford. Possible they that carried the two Woodford wards. I know the latter quite well, particularly South Woodford. It’s a nice area overall, there’s been a visible growth in ethnic diversity.

The swing to Labour here looks to me to be fairly close to the norm for places which had a narrow Remain lead in the referendum – it was 51:49 here.

So taking a few similarly ‘narrow remain’ seats, the swing was 5% in Loughborough, and 6.5% in Ruislip & Northwood, 7% in Chingford and Woodford, and 8% in Wycombe.

IDS will be targeted like hell for a Portillo Moment next time by Labour locally and possibly regionally as well- It’s one of their few targets for miles in the area, and I think they’ll go all out to try and take it- they’d do worse than look to readopt Bilal Mahmood for the first time, seeing as he’s already secured two big swings in his favour here.

Norman Tebbit’s and IDS’s initial Chingford Constituency would have been a Labour Gain.

The addition of Woodford in 1997 turned it from a safe Conservative seat to an ultra safe Conservative seat but so much has changed since then.

Chingford’s was created in Feb 1974 combining the part of Epping that did not become Harlow with the part of Walthamstow East that did not merge with Walthamstow West to become Walthamstow.

I doubt that the Woodford wards would have voted Labour personally, though perhaps Church End wouldn’t have voted Tory by much. I think that Labour won Valley & Hale End/Highams Park wards, were roughly up to the Tories in Larkswood & Hatch Lane wards and were behind by varying degrees in the other 4.
But I could be completely wrong.

I think Labour will have narrowly carried Church End- the Conservatives have not done terribly well there in recent years.

Certainly a seat that is trending Labour at a rapid rate. I suspect the seat hasn’t been worked intensively in the past but will now become a key target. I could well see a number of wards in this seat fall to Labour next year at the council elections including Larkswood and Hatch Lane with Labour picking up the remaining seats in Valley and Hale End & Highams Park. Over in Redbridge, Labour may well pick up Church End. Any boundary changes in this seat are highly unlikely to favour the Tories going forward. Suspect IDS will retire next time round even if it’s an early election. In the longer term it will probably go the way of Ilford North.