Chichester

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32953 (57.7%)
Labour: 6933 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 4865 (8.5%)
Green: 3742 (6.5%)
UKIP: 8540 (14.9%)
Others: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 24413 (42.7%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex. Part of the Chichester council area.

Main population centres: Chichester, Midhurst, Bosham, Southbourne, Selsey.

Profile: A large rural seat covering the western end of West Sussex. To the south of the seat is the City of Chichester itself, an ancient Cathedral City that is a present day tourist centre and a centre for sailing and yachting (boat building is a major local industry) and various villages and tourist resorts on the coast of Chichester harbour or the Manhood peninsula. The rest of the seat takes in a large expanse of the rolling South Downs National Park, with the only other significant centre of population being the small market town of Midhurst (once a rotten borough - in 1831 it returned 2 Members of Parliament for its 41 voters).

Politics: A solid Conservative seat, held by the party since 1924.


Current MP
ANDREW TYRIE (Conservative) Born 1957, Rochford. Educated at Felstead School and Oxford University. Former economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Contested Houghton and Washington 1992. First elected as MP for Chichester in 1997. Shadow paymaster general 2004-2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31427 (55%)
Lab: 5937 (10%)
LDem: 15550 (27%)
UKIP: 3873 (7%)
MAJ: 15877 (28%)
2005*
Con: 25302 (48%)
Lab: 9632 (18%)
LDem: 14442 (28%)
UKIP: 3025 (6%)
MAJ: 10860 (21%)
2001
Con: 23320 (47%)
Lab: 10627 (21%)
LDem: 11965 (24%)
UKIP: 2308 (5%)
Oth: 1292 (3%)
MAJ: 11355 (23%)
1997
Con: 25895 (46%)
Lab: 9605 (17%)
LDem: 16161 (29%)
Oth: 800 (1%)
MAJ: 9734 (17%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREW TYRIE (Conservative) See above.
MARK FARWELL (Labour)
ANDREW SMITH (Liberal Democrat)
ANDREW MONCRIEFF (UKIP)
JASPER RICHARDS (Green)
ANDREW EMERSON (Patria) Educated at Reading Bluecoat School. Lecturer. Contested Contested Broxborne 2005, Watford 2010 for the BNP.
Links
Comments - 42 Responses on “Chichester”
  1. Local Conservative councillor has resigned from the party over racist remarks:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/21/john-cherry-racist-remarks_n_3127033.html

    Stephen Twigg naturally jumps on the bandwagon (Conservatives are the nasty party etc etc)

  2. It’ll be interesting to see if Mr Cherry 1) wins and 2) remains an Independent councillor for the four year term.

  3. Former Chichester MP Anthony Nelson has come out in support of Ed Miliband’s energy proposals:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/sep/26/energy-price-freeze-former-tory-minister-miliband

  4. He joined Labour, I think, soon after 1997. Apologies if I am inaccurate. There are serious problems in energy and it is not a properly competitive market. One can’t blame an opposition party for using it, but I don’t agree with that way of doing it.

  5. Between 1983 and 1997 the Chichester constituency had the same boundaries as the Chichester council area.

    In 1997 three wards were moved to other seats: two, Plaistow and Wisborough Green, were transferred to Horsham, and Bury was assigned to the new Arundel & South Downs seat.

  6. Cock crows three times and Tyrie denies he signed the EU letter… in fact never saw it… which fellow signers find hard to believe..

  7. Prediction for 2015-
    Tyrie (Conservative)- 53%
    Liberal Democrat- 24%
    Labour- 14%
    UKIP- 9%

  8. The Green candidate is Jasper Richmond (not Richards).

  9. Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj

  10. Boundary history of Chichester constituency:

    1885-1918: The Municipal Borough of Chichester, the Sessional Divisions of Arundel and Chichester, and part of the Sessional Division of Steyning.

    1918-1950: The Municipal Boroughs of Arundel and Chichester, the Urban Districts of Bognor and Littlehampton, and the Rural Districts of East Preston, Midhurst, Petworth, Westbourne, and Westhampnett.

    1950-1974: The Municipal Borough of Chichester, the Urban District of Bognor Regis, and the Rural District of Chichester.

    1974-1983: The Municipal Borough of Chichester, the Rural Districts of Midhurst and Petworth, and part of the Rural District of Chichester.

    1983-1997: The District of Chichester. (the boundaries did not in fact change from 1974, what were the wards of the district?)

    1997-2010: All the wards of the District of Chichester except the Bury, Plaistow and Wisborough Green wards. (presumably the wards of Chichester in question in this seat were the same as in 1983)

    2010-present: The District of Chichester wards of Bosham, Boxgrove, Chichester East, Chichester North, Chichester South, Chichester West, Donnington, Easebourne, East Wittering, Fernhurst, Fishbourne, Funtington, Harting, Lavant, Midhurst, North Mundham, Plaistow, Rogate, Selsey North, Selsey South, Sidlesham, Southbourne, Stedham, Tangmere, West Wittering, and Westbourne.

  11. Andrew Tyrie is backing Remain and has been strongly critical of Leave’s spending claims. Andrew Mitchell also declared for Remain at the weekend.

  12. Oh I thought Tyrie was for leave, who I imagine will win in the District.

  13. Tyrie always seemed an unlikely supporter of leaving the EU, and I always wondered why he had been bracketed as a Brexiter

    Following Mitchell, Hollingberry and Mercer’s endorsement of staying in, are there any of the previously undeclared Tory MPs who have gone the other way?

  14. This seat contains the Manhood Peninsula? Please tell me it isn’t named for its shape.

  15. I think Mims Davies tweeted something about leaning towards Leave but not campaigning. Also, Rehman Chishti, as discussed on his constituency thread. All of the senior undecided people have gone Remain. According to the Guardian’s list there are still quite a lot of Tories undeclared but I think many of these have in fact declared, in some cases a long time ago.

  16. Andrew Tyrie has announced he is standing down.

    As a highly respected Chair of the Treasury committee, he will be a hard act to follow.

  17. ‘As a highly respected Chair of the Treasury committee, he will be a hard act to follow.’

    Very hard

    Yet another Tory firmly from the Left who presumably seems no place for someone like him in Theresa May’s right-wing populist party

  18. What a nice plum seat up for grabs…. (if you’re a conservative of course)

  19. A very difficult act to follow- I had a lot of time for him.

  20. I think that makes 25 MPs who are standing down.

    As a former economist and nemesis of GO I suppose he thought his job was done.

  21. “As a former economist and nemesis of GO I suppose he thought his job was done.”

    Or he could continue the feud by taking up the editorship of the Metro and moonlighting as an asset manager for UBS đŸ˜‰

  22. Tyrie is a good guy. He wasn’t beholden to any wing of the party that I could see.

    To try and place him on a crude left-right scale does him an injustice (and, as I’ve said before, is lazy and often too stereotyped).

  23. ‘To try and place him on a crude left-right scale does him an injustice’

    I don’t think describing him as on the Tory Left – or what’s left of it, no pun intended – does him an injustice at all, It’s merely stating fact

    You’r right in that was one of the few MPs respected by all sides of the House and did an outstanding job as Chair of the treasury Committee

    I just hope the local association find a suitable replacement, although this local association does have good form in this respect

  24. People often crudely use the left right scale I’ve often heard people refer to certain members of the Tory party as Left which is probably to simplistic

  25. Names in the running to replace Andrew Tyrie as chair of the Treasury Select Committee:

    Richard Bacon, Charlie Elphicke, Stephen Hammond, Nicky Morgan, John Penrose & Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    No idea who four of those people even are. It would seem that Nicky Morgan is favourite to take it – she’s exactly the sort of person who would use the role to scrutinise rather than flatter the government, and should scoop up a lot of votes from Labour & other opposition parties. (Not so much because of her moderate leanings, more because she still seems to harbour a grudge over her sacking. Fair to say she is not Theresa May’s biggest cheerleader.)

  26. I think Morgan has cheered up a bit now that things have gone so badly wrong for May. I agree that she’s the favourite here.

  27. Definitely a spring in Nicky M’s step now…she ll be treasury committee chair for a couple of years and may be brought back under a new leader. Politics is that sort of game. She faced years of obscurity if May had won big.

  28. On the flipside, her majority has been severely slashed. She probably thought she had a safe enough seat to be able to rebuild her career but now she must be looking nervously over her shoulder. We don’t know when the next election will be…

  29. Seems to be getting very personal & nasty in here these days which is a big shame.

    Firstly I felt I had to pipe up for AndyJS who can’t answer back to the criticism of him upthread as his posts are all stuck in eternal moderation….

    In the 11 years I have been posting here his politics appear to have drifted from centrist Lib Dem sympathising to the rather nationalist UKIP/Con borderline….though his politics aren’t mine he always comes across as a nice guy (both on here and in private email) and is a very good political statistician. He’s worth a thousand Plopwellian Torys.

    On topic above, I agree very much with Peter Crawford that we are again being subject to tiresome lectures about what things were like in the 80s from people who were no more than a twinkle in the milkman’s eye at the time. To say that Cameron was right of Thatcher is daft, adjusting for the parameters of the era. As Peter rightly points out, nothing in the UK can beat the Loadsamoney years of 86-89 for sheer right wingness (the years between Big Bang and the poll tax).

    I also agree with Peter that there is a distinct whiff of 1994-95 about the present government. It will hang on as long as it can in the increasingly certain knowledge that it will go down to a big defeat when the election comes. The “sea change” since the election has been that people have had enough of public spending restraint and a period of high-spending socialism consequently seems inevitable. MPs like Nicky Morgan and Amber Rudd will be buried deep under Labour’s win, as will in all likelihood most Tory MPs outside the party’s 200 safest seats.

  30. Any particular twinkles you had in mind

  31. “Any particular twinkles you had in mind”

    Nothing personal.

    Where perhaps Ecowirral & others have a point is that Mrs Thatcher’s sense of nationalism/decency got in the way of some “right wing” policies (quite rightly in my view), such as privatisation of Royal Mail and prisons, which Cameron had no qualms about.

    But on the bread and butter of the economy the late 80s were far more laissez faire than today, and people didn’t have the huge sense of entitlement which we have today nor such unreasonable expectations of the state (perhaps because so many were still alive who had had really poor childhoods with no NHS etc). And my criticism is at least equally aimed at feather bedded baby boomers as it is towards the younger generations.

  32. The 80s were much more capitalist and free wheeling than today, despite oligarchs and billionaires. It was the nearest Britain got to being a bigger Singapore in mindset.

    6th formers in the cushy comp i attended actually talked about the privatisations and applied for shares. the “tell Sid” campaign (how many on this site will even know to what i am referring, I wonder) was brilliant, and people talked about the stock market openly in a way that I have never heard since

  33. Interesting comments about the 80’s, a decade I have always been fascinated by (I was born in ’83).

    Peter- perhaps, like pretty much everything else, the novelty just wore off re: shares etc.

  34. Well sub prime bonds were all the craze after 1977 less so after 2007

  35. “Peter- perhaps, like pretty much everything else, the novelty just wore off re: shares etc.”

    The general public got the shares at a knockdown price and mostly sold them within a few years for a quick profit. A very British failing. Thatcher’s dream of a shareholding democracy has ended up with the shares mostly in the hands of huge funds.

  36. Chris K

    A very quick point – I am puzzled as to why my posts were put in moderation when, for all my lack of psephological knowledge, I don’t think I ever said anything offensive. But setting my situation aside, I can’t understand why Andy JS’s posts would be moderated when he has significant knowledge and posted fairly moderately as far as I can see. There seems to be no obvious logic to the way the site is run, as there are plenty of partisan or unpleasant posts that aren’t moderated, but even partisan (but ultimately harmless) messages from other posters are. Seems odd to me.

  37. Tim S- completely agreed. I’d love to know when Anthony is actually going to start moderating his own site properly.

  38. I moderate a major site on Facebook, but other people help me do it when I’m not available – in fact about a dozen people do it. Perhaps Anthony could do with some help?

  39. “Firstly I felt I had to pipe up for AndyJS who can’t answer back to the criticism of him upthread as his posts are all stuck in eternal moderation…”

    I (thankfully) don’t see any harsh words directed at AndyJS, bu6 of all the posters to single out, he has to be the least deserving

  40. (Putting this here as it was the place Ashcroft was born, and during his time as a peer he went by the style the Rt Hon Lord Ashcroft of Chichester.)

    So the “stunning revelations” about Ashcroft are things we have known for decades – his murky dealings with offshore shell companies.

    Still, it’s good to be reminded of them from time-to-time, especially as last time he hit the headlines the serious allegations that he sought to bribe David Cameron for a cabinet position were passed over for more amusing, but ultimately less incriminating, pig-related rumours.

    One wonders whether the millions he pours into the Tories is even worth it – it’s hardly good PR and makes a mockery of their claims to be cracking down on tax avoidance.

    (For the record, I do genuinely believe the Tories are concerned about the tax gap, but more because they need all the money they can get to try and buy off the voters than because of some deeply held principle.)

  41. I just spotted that Andrew Tyrie was proven right (and GO wrong again), 3 years after the fact.

    It got very little coverage, but the ST & BBC Moneybox mentioned it briefly the other day.

    GO argued before the Select Committee that the UK’s productivity lagged far behind the rest of the EU and cited this as another reason why the UK needed HS2, the NLW, HTB and so on.

    However a study has just shown that we only lag behind on the OECD basis, which GO & his French friend Christine were so fond of quoting.

    If return on expenditure per employee is the gauge the results are:

    UK A 15.8% return

    Italy 11.5%

    Germany 6.4%

    France barely breaks even with just 0.4% per employee, due to the extra social security costs employers pay there.

    Although my favourite outing by Tyrie was his questioning of DC on Syria:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/12/david-cameron-sees-red-as-the-liaison-committee-bares-its-teeth

  42. Fishbourne Ward By-election, 22.02.18:

    LibDem 459
    Cons 294
    Lab 88

    LD hold.

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