Cheadle

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22889 (43.1%)
Labour: 8673 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 16436 (31%)
UKIP: 4423 (8.3%)
Independent: 390 (0.7%)
Others: 284 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6453 (12.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Stockport council area.

Main population centres: Cheadle, Cheadle Hulme, Gatley, Bramhall.

Profile: A very middle-class in the south-west of Greater Manchester. It has the highest proportion of owner-occupiers, professionals and detached houses of any of the Greater Manchester seats and is very much a suburban seat.

Politics: Cheadle is a marginal seat between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that has swapped hands between the two parties several times over the last fifty years. It was held by the Liberals for four years in the 1960s, then for a longer period between 2001 and 2015.


Current MP
MARY ROBINSON (Conservative) Former businessman. Former South Ribble councillor. First elected as MP for Cheadle in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21445 (41%)
Lab: 4920 (9%)
LDem: 24717 (47%)
UKIP: 1430 (3%)
MAJ: 3272 (6%)
2005*
Con: 19169 (40%)
Lab: 4169 (9%)
LDem: 23189 (49%)
UKIP: 489 (1%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 4020 (8%)
2001
Con: 18444 (42%)
Lab: 6086 (14%)
LDem: 18477 (42%)
UKIP: 599 (1%)
MAJ: 33 (0%)
1997
Con: 22944 (44%)
Lab: 8253 (16%)
LDem: 19755 (38%)
MAJ: 3189 (6%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARY ROBINSON (Conservative) Runs a family business. Former South Ribble councillor.
MARTIN MILLER (Labour) Born Glasgow. Church chief executive. Former Stockport councillor. Contested Hazel Grove 2001, Cheadle 2005, 2005 by-election, 2010.
MARK HUNTER (Liberal Democrat) Born 1957, Audenshaw. Educated at Audenshaw Grammar School for Boys. Marketing executive. Stockport councillor 1996-2005, Leader of Stockport council 2001-2005.Contested Ashton under Lyne 1987, Stockport 2001. MP for Cheadle 2005 by-election to 2015. PPS to Nick Clegg 2007-2010. Government whip since 2010.
SHAUN HOPKINS (UKIP) Born Stockport. Former Royal marine.
DREW CARSWELL (Above and Beyond) Born 1995. Educated at Sheffield University. Student.
MATTHEW TORBITT (Independent) Kitchen chef and student.
HELEN BASHFORD (Independence from Europe) Born 1958. Educated at Ashton-on-Mersey Secondary Modern & Sale Girls Grammar School. Former Chairman of the British Women Racing Drivers' Club. Contested North West region 2014 European election.
Links
Comments - 114 Responses on “Cheadle”
  1. This might sound strange, but I had this really weird dream last night where I was at the declaration for this seat in 1992….

  2. Cheadle 2015 Most likely

    LD 39
    Con 38
    Lab 15
    Others 8

  3. I think the Tories are unlikely to manage this because the LD core vote is effectively relatively solid in 5 wards even though they’ve slumped in Bramhall so a small LD majority of not more than 1000 is my conclusion.

    Bramhall is the Tories’ only fully reliable area of support left in Stockport borough.

  4. Yes I’m beginning to think more and more that the Tories might not manage to take this. Hunter may well survive and if he does hold on to this it will be with a majority above the gain in 2001 I would have thought

  5. It’s interesting how little things have moved here in the last 4 elections:

    Con vote share: 44, 42, 40, 41
    Lib+Lab vote share: 54, 56, 58, 56

    I’m not sure I can see much of a shift next time either from this, although I think Lab and Con will pick up a bit and it doesn’t take much shift in those directions for Con to finally get this seat back.

    Are there many seats like this where the Con position hasn’t recovered at least to a partial extent towards the 1992 position (still 17 points down on that).

  6. Hunter could hold this, but at the moment I would tend towards a three figure majority for him.

    Patsy Calton did very very well as candidate and MP here, and it really is a testament to her great memory that they still hold the seat here, not merely down to their local strength, but also due to her work I would argue. Hunter increased the majority at the 2005 by-election, but fell back a little but not much in 2010 against both 2005 and the by-election.

  7. Cheadle 2014:
    Liberal Democrats – 9,110 (31.64%)
    Conservatives – 8,557 (29.72%)
    Labour – 4,635 (16.10%)
    UKIP – 3,655 (12.70%)
    Heald Green Ratepayer – 2,010 (6.98%)
    Greens – 822 (2.86%)

    Greens with 3 candidates, UKIP all but Stepping Hill. Lib-Con-Lab all full slates.

  8. Ashcroft polling:

    LD 32%
    Con 29%
    Lab 21%
    UKIP 15%

    The Labour figure seems a bit high, although with the non-constituency question for Cheadle they were on 24%.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/479566315225903104/photo/1

  9. Us down 12 :S. Not sure that will happen.

  10. I think there is a fairly high latent Labour vote but the Lib Dems will target it heavily and, I would assume, successfully enough. Labour’s vote will be higher than it has been for a long time but this is a two-way fight and I would see the Conservatives doing better than the poll as well. It is one of the areas where the UKIP vote seems to have come clearly from the Tories.
    Lib Dem hold with, I would guess, uner 40% of the vote. To early for a proper prediction.

  11. *under

  12. I’m rather pessimistic about Tory chances here. If the Tories can get a big lead Bramhall there is a slim chance of a narrow gain but I’m not holding my breath. I suspect the demographics have changed subtly here in the last 30 years. Victoria Wood once wrote a very funny set of monologues for Patricia Routlege in which she played a proto-Hyacinth character called Kitty. She was from Cheadle. If Wood wrote it today, I doubt this would be the case.

  13. I don’t know how it could be polled for but some kamikaze former LDs might be completely impossible to convince to vote tactically. It will be good to see how that works out in LD-Con seats.

  14. *big lead in Bramhall.

  15. I think a Con gain is possible.
    CON 33
    LD 30
    LAB 17
    UKIP 13
    GRN 7

  16. It’s possible, but that’s not what the Ashcroft poll suggested. As several others have correctly said, the Tories struggle for votes outside of Bramhall & the LDs remain ahead of them in the rest of the constituency. Although there will be some drift back to Labour, I don’t think it’ll be enough to let the Tories in. LD hold for me still.

  17. I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome. The local elections look rather poor. But it is a marginal seat and i am virtually certain there will also be some shock LD losses somewhere. More likely where an mp retires.

  18. Could UKIP have a large gain here? Demographically it seems like a place they would do well

  19. I’d guess it roughly amounts to whether the Con or Lib candidate is better able to squash the UKIP or Lab vote respectively. There’s more Labour votes to lose but I imagine they may be stickier than the UKIP block.

  20. Not really UKIP county at all.

    Too affluent and with a much higher general level of education than the seats the kippers have done well in.

  21. By-election being held here in a few weeks in the Bramhall South and Woodford ward. Labour, Green, Lib Dem and Tories contesting, UKIP failed to get their nominations in on time.

    Also, UKIP have selected Shaun Hopkins for Cheadle.

  22. The latest Ashcroft poll wasn’t reported:
    LD – 34%
    Con – 30%
    Lab – 19%
    UKIP – 13%

  23. I am beginning to worry that Cheadle is going to end up like Sheffield Hallam for the Conservatives before long.

  24. Saying that, public sector workers are not nearly so well represented in Cheadle as they are in Sheffield Hallam (29.6% vs 43.4%) so maybe my pessimism is a bit premature. But 17% points down on 1992 is not a great position to be in.

  25. Mark Hunter has resigned from the Govt to concentrate on defending his seat here.

  26. Bramhall South By-election Result: Cons 2,080, LibDem 1,502, Green 197, Labour 132. Turnout: 39.6%. Whilst competitive in the seat, it seems big leads in Bramhall may elude the Tories, even without UKIP.

  27. Tory – well remembered. Victoria Wood also uses the Cheshire suburbs to poke fun in Dinnerladies (one of the posh working class women moves to Mobberley and mentions it a lot). Sadly, these days both Bramhall and Formby are in the papers as much for footballers and drug lords being raided than genteel OAPs. Both have respectively had a Manc and Scouse contingent move there over the past 30 years. Houses worth £1-2m here don’t equal Tory votes. (I know of a few Scousers who’ve moved to Lymm too and I think that once Tory area now reliably votes LD locally).

  28. Lancs Observer- indeed. Matthew Engel writes about the phenomenon you describe in the Cheshire chapter of his new book on the English Counties. As he put it so well, old taste is giving way to no taste at all.

  29. Bramhall Tory Cllr Paul Bellis has defected to UKIP.

  30. Hundreds of placards have appeared in Cheadle Hulme over the last couple of days, warning of Cameron and Hunt selling off the NHS.

    I’m guessing these must have been distributed by The Lib Dems, to Lib Dem voters.

    It’s just so baffling how The Lib Dems can expect to be taken seriously, after getting into a bed with a party alien to a lot of their so called beliefs.

  31. I think this going to go to the wire on election night.. I usually put a lot of faith in the Ashcroft polls but I can’t see how labour can get more than their 1997 percentage whilst getting less share nationally..

    I think there will be 2% in it but with the lib dems static on 8% in the polls and a slight drift upwards in the Tory vote it could be a Tory lead.. I am predicting:

    Con- 38
    Lib- 36
    Lab- 13
    UKIP- 10
    Green- 3

  32. Things are really heating up here. I live in the Woodsmoor area which falls under Stepping Hill ward and I’ve had 9 leaflets this month.

    I’m assuming the Lib Dems are struggling the stuffed 4 leaflets at once through last week, I’ve had 3 from the Tories, one from Labour and a knock on the door from Labour, apparently they fancy their chances in the local election here.

    Will be a close one to call, I’m still totally unsure which way this will go. I have a feeling the turnout in Bramhall vs the other wards will call this one.

  33. This seat will go to the Tories by default, many Labour voters that helped the Lib-Dems win last time will feel betrayed, the Lib Dem vote could collapse.

  34. I can confirm comments above about the changing demographics in Cheadle. Since moving here about 25 years ago the “Kitties” have become a dying breed ( and yes, Victoria Wood hit the nail on the head there) though they’re still to be spotted, especially in Bramhall and environs. Young people have moved in where Kitty and her long suffering spouse have moved into nursing homes. The LD “Labour can’t win here” message has effectively squeezed a moribund Labour party and won over incomers of a more leftish persuasion, and there is a general belief that this is a two horse race.

    However, there are a lot of disaffected LD tactical voters around who may not turn up for Hunter this time. Expect the Labour vote to rise a little bouyed by defecting LDs (though their perennial candidate doesn’t help them – with a better candidate they could get a Tory MP elected). Clegg’s recent visit, where he effectively said he’d prefer more LibCon to LibLab doesn’t help Hunter either – it might attract a few voters from Conservative Mary Robinson but it puts off more of those tacticals. I think they know they’re in trouble and are trying desperate tactics.

  35. I agree with a lot of what Cheadle Local says. It’s very close here that is for sure, the Lib Dems are winning the poster war around where I live however, they are less than what they’ve had before.

    I’m a Tory member but I know both my neighbours intend to vote Labour. I live in the Woodsmoor/Davenport area which has had Labour Cllrs in the past so there is some history here.

    I’m beginning to think the Tories may just edge this one.

  36. King Tut, how much campaigning are the local tories doing here?

  37. Quite a lot actually, but the Lib Dems are more visible. However, saying that I’ve had 4 glossy leaflets, 2 Riso leaflets and a knock at the door from Labour! Their local council candidate seems to be picking up a bit of support .here.

  38. Mark Hunters seat is at risk for sure. I myself a tactical voter wouldn’t dream of voting for the LD again after such a shambolic coalition. The LD shouldn’t under estimate how many people have been sickened by weak excuses given for entering into a coalition with the enemy.

  39. “UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.”

  40. for a long time i have thought the libs would hold on with a bit to spare here and the ashcroft poll supported this. however, I am starting to believe that this may be could be very close. local tories have told me that there is quite a big lib to lab movement.
    if this seat is lost, what do people think will happen. will the liberals fight to reorganize tactical votes and retake the seat or will labour strengthen still further and become the main opposition, possibly allowing the cons to hold on a bit longer?

  41. CHESHIREDOG:

    Ashcroft confirmed the significant Lib Dem to Lab movement but still had Lib Dem in front.

  42. CheshireDog:
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/cheadle/

    Lean LD I think.

  43. LD hold majority 1300.

    I don’t rule out a Conservative gain here but if it happens it will be flukish and will rely on a strengthening Labour vote which medium term could be a very mixed blessing indeed for the Conservatives.

  44. @Cheshire Dog

    The Lib Dems would have to disappear completely not to be at least second in Cheadle. They will live to fight again, lose or win here…

    And I tend to agree that Labour getting more than they did in 1997 is improbable. On the other hand the fall in the Tory vote also looks improbably large in the Ashcroft poll…

    My gut feeling is Tory actually – their vote has never fallen below 40% in the past, and even though a few % may have gone to UKIP this time, I just dont see the Tory vote at 30% here…

  45. Why is improbable? As others have said, Cheadle’s demographics are changing.

  46. Lib Dem Hold. 1,500 majority.

  47. Well…as to my mind this is the Manchester equivalent of Sutton in South London…just like Sutton it has gone Blue!

  48. A very good Conservative result- Hazel Grove was arguably even better though. It seems as though the Conservatives have managed to regain the trust (if not exactly the affection) of the northern middle-classes though how long that lasts beyond this election remains very much to be seen.

  49. can see this returning yellow, like HG but not until 2025 imo

  50. This constituency presumably voted narrowly remain which in a weird way could be one of the few good possibilities for the Lib Dems in 2020 if brexit goes wrong for the Tories, ditto Bath, Cheltenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Twickenham.

    Eastleigh only went leave by about 5% as well interestingly.

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