2015 Result:
Conservative: 22889 (43.1%)
Labour: 8673 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 16436 (31%)
UKIP: 4423 (8.3%)
Independent: 390 (0.7%)
Others: 284 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6453 (12.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Stockport council area.

Main population centres: Cheadle, Cheadle Hulme, Gatley, Bramhall.

Profile: A very middle-class in the south-west of Greater Manchester. It has the highest proportion of owner-occupiers, professionals and detached houses of any of the Greater Manchester seats and is very much a suburban seat.

Politics: Cheadle is a marginal seat between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that has swapped hands between the two parties several times over the last fifty years. It was held by the Liberals for four years in the 1960s, then for a longer period between 2001 and 2015.

Current MP
MARY ROBINSON (Conservative) Former businessman. Former South Ribble councillor. First elected as MP for Cheadle in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 21445 (41%)
Lab: 4920 (9%)
LDem: 24717 (47%)
UKIP: 1430 (3%)
MAJ: 3272 (6%)
Con: 19169 (40%)
Lab: 4169 (9%)
LDem: 23189 (49%)
UKIP: 489 (1%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 4020 (8%)
Con: 18444 (42%)
Lab: 6086 (14%)
LDem: 18477 (42%)
UKIP: 599 (1%)
MAJ: 33 (0%)
Con: 22944 (44%)
Lab: 8253 (16%)
LDem: 19755 (38%)
MAJ: 3189 (6%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
MARY ROBINSON (Conservative) Runs a family business. Former South Ribble councillor.
MARTIN MILLER (Labour) Born Glasgow. Church chief executive. Former Stockport councillor. Contested Hazel Grove 2001, Cheadle 2005, 2005 by-election, 2010.
MARK HUNTER (Liberal Democrat) Born 1957, Audenshaw. Educated at Audenshaw Grammar School for Boys. Marketing executive. Stockport councillor 1996-2005, Leader of Stockport council 2001-2005.Contested Ashton under Lyne 1987, Stockport 2001. MP for Cheadle 2005 by-election to 2015. PPS to Nick Clegg 2007-2010. Government whip since 2010.
SHAUN HOPKINS (UKIP) Born Stockport. Former Royal marine.
DREW CARSWELL (Above and Beyond) Born 1995. Educated at Sheffield University. Student.
MATTHEW TORBITT (Independent) Kitchen chef and student.
HELEN BASHFORD (Independence from Europe) Born 1958. Educated at Ashton-on-Mersey Secondary Modern & Sale Girls Grammar School. Former Chairman of the British Women Racing Drivers' Club. Contested North West region 2014 European election.
Comments - 114 Responses on “Cheadle”
  1. Stockport council released EU referendum results by ward. Stockport and Cheadle were remain, Cheadle by a pretty large margin, while Hazel Grove voted leave.
    Remain: 23,600 (53.2%)
    Leave: 20,752 (46.8%)

    Hazel Grove
    Remain: 22,829 (47.8%)
    Leave: 24,939 (52.2%)

    Remain: 32,752 (57.3%)
    Leave: 24,360 (42.7%)

    Remain carried all wards in the Cheadle constituency, only Marple North in Hazel Grove, both Heatons wards and Edgeley and Cheadle Heath in Stockport (by 20 votes the Heatons wards were huge remain victories).

    Leave won nothing in Cheadle, all bar Marple North in Hazel Grove, Brinnington and Central, Devonport and Cale Green and Manor in Stockport, both Reddish wards.

    The things that surprised me were the scale of the huge remain victories in the Heatons wards and that Marple South and Hazel Grove wards voted leave.

  2. Pepperminttea
    “The things that surprised me were the scale of the huge remain victories in the Heatons wards and that Marple South and Hazel Grove wards voted leave”

    Surprising at first glance but when you delve a bit deeper semi understandable, except for Hazel Grove, that did surprise me.

    Marple South isn’t as affluent as one might think and is certainly the most conservative with a small C of all the Stockport wards containing the highest number of over 65’s and a low(ish) proportion of graduates which both point to a high Leave vote.

    As for the Heatons they really are reminiscent of any ward in Manchester proper boasting one of the lower proportions of White British residents and some of the highest proportion of graduates which both point to high Remain votes.

  3. Hazel Grove voting Leave didn’t surprise me. It’s a socially middling suburban sort of area with a somewhat older than average age profile.

  4. Interested in the difference between council & general election votes in Cheadle. Even those held on the same days in 2010 and 2015 show Conservatives much stronger in general than local and LibDems in local vs general.

    Is Heald Green more Conservative than the rest of the seat in general elections (obscured by the Ratepayers in local ones) or do a lot of people in Cheadle Hulme vote LibDem in local elections and Conservative in general?

    Just curious for any perspective. I grew up in the constituency but have not lived there in many years & have no active involvement in any of the parties.

  5. 57% leave, 16% Labour vote to squeeze, majority of 12%. Could this one be quite close? 75-25 Tory will hold (especially if they maintain these polling figures) but i feel the LDs have a chance here.

  6. This seat voted remain, not leave

  7. Sorry, that’s what i meant.

  8. The constituency is awash with LD diamonds especially around Cheadle Hulme and Mary Robinson placards in Bramhall North ward which is exactly as one would expect.

    My head says Con hold by 10% because of poor LD national ratings but it’s very hard to say.

    Not convinced the LDs will make any gains in England, even Twickenham but this is in their top 5 best prospects IMO.

  9. Really? I wouldn’t have put Cheadle in top 15… I’d say the top five, top ten, top fifteen and top twenty in England (in no real order within the groups):


    Kingston & Surbiton
    Oxford West & Abingdon
    St Ives

    St Albans
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Manchester, Withington
    Thornbury & Yate
    Hornsey & Wood Green

    Hazel Grove
    Oxford East

    I highly, highly doubt they even have a hope right now outside the first two groups, and even the second is questionable unless I’m really underestimating them (i.e., massive surge in OW&A that’s not anticipated).

  10. I’d have thought Cheadle, Liberal tradition, strong remain vote, known candidate, would have been a better prospect than most in your third group. Agree with your final analysis though.

  11. Labour gained Cheadle Hulme North ward by 2 votes in May for the first time. Quite a notable result allowing them to remain the largest party on Stockport council.

    The Lib Dems will be slightly disappointed only winning Cheadle Hulme S and Cheadle and Gatley, failing to dent the Tories in their two heavily remain rich core Bramhall wards and seeing the Tories hang on in Stepping Hill.

    On the positive side for the LDs they won all 6 wards in Hazel Grove this year for the first time since 2010.

  12. The PM was here earlier today – a sign that the Tories are still worried about loses to the Lib Dems?

  13. If the Lib Dem vote is stacked up in all the ‘wrong’ places from a Con perspective, we could see some closer than expected battles. Can’t see this one going to the Libs though. St Albans and Cheltenham are more promising, and Richmond Park is pretty much nailed on.

  14. A closer look at the data suggests that the Lib Dem vote is stacking up in all the wrong places for the *Lib Dems*. Much of the increase in their national vote share is likely to come from thirty-something percentages in Home Counties seats. A few dozen seats will break down something like Con 50 LD 35 Lab 15. Lots of votes, nothing to show for it.

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