Carshalton & Wallington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15093 (31.7%)
Labour: 7150 (15%)
Lib Dem: 16603 (34.9%)
Green: 1492 (3.1%)
UKIP: 7049 (14.8%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1510 (3.2%)

Category: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Sutton council area.

Main population centres: Carshalton, Wallington.

Profile: An affluent residential seat, but less so than some of the other Liberal Democrat strongholds in south-west London - this is more middle-of-the-road suburbia than it is luxury. There are also substantial council estates here, with the Roundshaw development on the old Croydon Airport site and the southern half of the large St Helier estate.

Politics: Once a solid Conservative seat this fell to the Liberal Democrats in 1997. The old core of Labour support has been squeezed by the Con-Lib Dem contest, with the old areas of Labour strength on the council estates now bases of Lib Dem support.


Current MP
TOM BRAKE (Liberal Democrat) Born 1962, Melton Mowbray. Educated at Lycee International, St Germaine and Imperial College London. Former computer software consultant. Hackney councillor 1988-1990, Sutton councillor 1994-1998. Contested Carshalton and Wallington 1992. First elected as MP for Carshalton and Wallington in 1997. Deputy Leader of the House of Commons 2012-2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16920 (37%)
Lab: 4015 (9%)
LDem: 22180 (48%)
UKIP: 1348 (3%)
Oth: 1455 (3%)
MAJ: 5260 (11%)
2005*
Con: 16289 (38%)
Lab: 7396 (17%)
LDem: 17357 (40%)
UKIP: 1111 (3%)
Oth: 908 (2%)
MAJ: 1068 (2%)
2001
Con: 13742 (34%)
Lab: 7466 (18%)
LDem: 18289 (45%)
GRN: 614 (2%)
Oth: 501 (1%)
MAJ: 4547 (11%)
1997
Con: 16223 (34%)
Lab: 11565 (24%)
LDem: 18490 (38%)
Oth: 856 (2%)
MAJ: 2267 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW MAXWELL SCOTT (Conservative) Born 1976, London. Educated at Eton and Edinburgh University. Speechwriter. Wandsworth councillor since 2010.
SIOBHAN TATE (Labour) Art and design teacher.
TOM BRAKE (Liberal Democrat) See above.
WILLIAM MAIN-IAN (UKIP) Born Scotland. Educated at Nairn Academy. Retired police officer.
ROSS HEMINGWAY (Green) Educated at Nottingham University. Communications officer.
RICHARD EDMONDS (National Front) Born 1943, Hounslow. Educated at Southampton University. Contested Deptford O1974 for the National Front, Lewisham East 1983, Bethnal Green and Stepney 1992 for the BNP, Croydon North 2012 by-election for the NF.
ASHLEY DICKENSON (CPA)
Links
Comments - 258 Responses on “Carshalton & Wallington”
  1. “Presumably they want to maximise their national share by having as many candidates as possible.”

    Re: the Greens standing – this would also be as a means to increasing the legitimacy of their argument about being invited to take part in the leaders’ debates. If as in 2010 they were to stand in fewer than half of the constituencies their arguments carry little weight.

    Pete – most definitely a large chunk of Aus/NZ/SA in these parts. As perhaps best evidenced by the thriving local Cricket scene in stark contrast to the struggles of grassroots Cricket elsewhere! Putney and Wimbledon tend to have pretty high concentrations, but they’ve spread elsewhere too.

  2. “RR – I went to a party in the Merton part of St Helier a few years back and nearly everyone there was Antipodean or South African. I got the impression there were a large number of people from these backgrounds in the area”

    Certainly there was a large community of wealthy ex-pat South Africans in Putney/Southfields/Wimbledon when I lived there in the 1990s, and I understand there still is. It seems logical enough that some less immediately affluent South Africans might choose to live in cheaper areas that are nonethless close to that original community.

  3. Ashcroft polling:

    Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wellington:

    LD 43% (-5)
    Con 23% (-14)
    UKIP 17% (+14)
    Lab 12% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/537954558291738624/photo/1

  4. This more or less proves the South London LD strong holding pattern theory.

  5. I wonder if Sutton Conservatives will send out the message

    “VOTE UKIP GET LIB DEM”

  6. Well they could try. Problem some of that UKIP vote would be ex-Lib Dem who are anti-Tory so that might not have the desired effect…

  7. Say what you like about Tom Brake, I have several issues with him, but that’s not important right now, the man is very visible in the constituency, especially in the area my girlfriend lives, his name is well known he does frequent street stalls in Wallington and Carshalton high streets (not many sitting MPs do this) and has a well crafted image of a man who cares deeply about the area.

    Despite being deeply involved with the coalition government, he has managed to seperate himself from the governments policies. The Lib Dem machine is alive and kicking in here… I think this will be the safest Lib Dem seat in London come 2015…

  8. You highlight why the Lib Dems deserve the thrashing they are going to get in 600 or so seats (though not here). On what planet would somebody respect a party that goes into coalition and stays in it for 5 years, and then tries to “separate itself from the government’s policies”. They are rightly treated as a laughing stock by the left and as spineless by the right, deservedly being outpolled nationally by the Greens.

    Psephologically you make a good point. Conceivably there may only be 3 Lib Dem seats left in London (here, Sutton/Cheam and Twickenham). This may well be the safest of the three. Unless they make a marked recovery I think it must be doubtful they will hold Kingston now.

  9. The Ashcroft poll of Kingston showed a Lib Dem lead of 8%

  10. If it was Norman Lamont’s old seat, I’d agree with H Hemmelig but Surbiton could well prop Davey up.

  11. Kingston and Surbiton has an 8% LD lead. I think they’ll hold it. I can’t see them sinking much from where they are now. Admittedly, I said that when they were at 9-11% nationally, too, rather than the current 6-9%.

    I think the four south London seats will be held, Bermondsey will be narrowly lost, Brent will be lost by 30 or more, Hornsey will be lost convincingly (probably by about 8%, plus or minus a few), and they’ll get killed almost everywhere else in Greater London. Will probably keep a distant second in Richmond Park and Orpington… Beyond that, they might hold onto second in Islington North, Islington South, Streatham, and Walthamstow, but even those are doubtful, and they’d be absurdly far back even if they did (it would be situations like Labour capturing 60 or so percent, then the Tories, Lib Dems, UKIP, and Greens all back on tiny fractions of the vote). Even that is unlikely. They could have a couple dozen forth or fifth place finishes in London.

    So I’d guess they’ll hold:
    Twickenham
    Carshalton
    Sutton
    Kingston

    And come second in:
    Bermondsey
    Brent
    Hornsey
    Richmond Park
    Orpington
    Islington South

    Everything else will be third, fourth, or fifth. Maybe even a sixth place if there’s a strong minor party showing.

  12. As I’ve stated previously, Labour has worked extensively in Kingston & Surbiton, not just in Norbiton which now again has Labour councillors, but in several other wards which were at least to some extent targetted (Grove, Beverley & to some extent Tolworth & Hook Rise), and some where there have also been by-elections (Berrylands & Surbiton Hill). We saw little or nothing to suggest that the Tories will mount a particularly close challenge to Ed Davey. Many voters told us that they’d vote for us locally but for Davey in the general election, particularly in Norbiton & Beverley. There’s yet another by-election coming up as it happens, in what seems to have become the by-election capital of London, in St James’s ward where the former Tory group leader has died. It’s just about the Tories’ strongest ward in the constituency, so perhaps it will tend to tell us less about the outcome in K&S than a by-election in a different ward would. But again I’d counsel against getting too excited at Tory municipal electoral success there. I would be extremely surprised if Davey doesn’t win again, though there is likely to be a reduced majority one would presume.

  13. I think the tories might never really get in here ever again. The WB population has gone from 90% to 72% in 10 years so unless the tories start appealing to ethnic minorities they’ll never get this back I think.

  14. A lib lab coalition would probably do the job.

  15. Anecdotally, the LDs do very well amongst the large Korean population here. And also for the most part among the Indian population, which is by no means negligible either.

  16. My latest prediction for 2015 here is-
    Brake (Lib Dem)- 46%
    Maxwell Scott (Tory)- 33%
    Tate (Labour)- 11%
    Main-Ian (UKIP)- 6%
    Hemingway (Green)- 4%

  17. This probably would have gone Labour in 1997 in not for the Liberals and won back by the Tories in 2005 following the pattern of the old Hornchurch seat.

  18. On paper, if the Lib Dems were never strong in Sutton borough, this seat would have been a Conservative-Labour marginal. I imagine, in some form of alternate reality,, the north of the constituency… St Helier, Wandle Valley and The Wrythe would be Labour wards. Carshalton South & Clockhouse, Beddington South and probably Wallington South would be Conservative (although the later two would have pockets of Labour strength. The three remaining wards, Carshalton Central, Wallington North and Beddington North would be more swing wards. I suspect Labour would have won here in 1997. The conservatives taking it in 2005 and would be going into 2015 with a majority of 3,000 -5,000

  19. Revised Prediction for 2015-
    TOM BRAKE (Liberal Democrat) – 37%
    MATTHEW MAXWELL SCOTT (Conservative) – 30%
    WILLIAM MAIN-IAN (UKIP) – 17%
    SIOBHAN TATE (Labour) – 11%
    ROSS HEMINGWAY (Green) – 3%
    ASHLEY DICKINSON (CPA) – 1%

    Expect a strongish UKIP (at least in London terms) performance to deny a Con Gain here

  20. UKIP will be lower, Green maybe a smidgen higher, LD higher. Brake’s majority will be higher than you’re predicting (Ashcroft has his majority at 20% – 43% LD to 23% CON, and while the actual result will be closer, it won’t be by much).

    Expect an LD majority higher than the existing one.

  21. Ld by 4000 here. An island of stability for the LD to cling on to.

  22. As I’ve said, I would be very surprised if Tom Brake lost. The seat is already flooded with his orange diamond window posters (not as many as 2010). The Conservative campaign, in comparison, seems much smaller then in 2010. It seems activists have been going to Croydon Central and Sutton & Cheam to help out. Maxwell-Scott is a pretty good candidate, he comes across as a nice guy and is much more personable than Brake.

    I’m pleased with how the Green campaign has been going here, helped with the growing number of members and supporters in the constituency. Ross Hemingway has been very good at encouraging people to get involved and has brought enthusiasm to the local party which was lost a few years ago. I would say we are on course to the best Green result ever here (probably not that hard!).

  23. My completely unscientific prediction of Carshalton & Wallington.

    Tom Brake (Lib Dem) – 41%
    Matthew Maxwell-Scott (Con) – 32%
    Siobhan Tate (Lab) – 12%
    Bill Main-Ian (UKIP) – 10%
    Ross Hemingway (Grn) – 4%
    Richard Edmonds (NF) – 0.6%
    Ashley Dickenson (CPA) – 0.4%

    Lib Dem Hold

  24. LD HOLD

    LD – 43
    CON – 30
    LAB – 10
    UKIP – 12
    O – 5

  25. That’s a good prediction there John Smith not miles off what I would say.

    I think LDs a bit lower UKIP a bit higher. The Con, Lab and Others look about right.

  26. LD hold 6600.

  27. LD hold 4750

  28. Lib Dem Hold. 5,000 maj

  29. Had been very confident that Tom Brake would hold this seat based upon his good reputation and hard work as a sitting constituency MP. However, after watching the first results come in, it looks like the Lib Dems are being punished regardless of how good their local MPs are. Now expecting a narrow Lib Dem loss – will find out soon.

  30. Well it seems Tom Brake held on – which I am happy about as he is a very good constituency MP.

    Lib Dem lost a lot of votes (-13%) – mostly it seems to Labour due to some tactical vote unwinding – but held on because the Tories also did badly here – losing 5% – mostly to UKIP, I presume.

    While Labour recovered somewhat it’s vote percentage is still below what it achieved in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and it should give Tom Brake something to squeeze again if he stands again in 2020.

    One thing is for sure Tom Brake will enjoy a higher ‘national’ profile in the run up to the next election – if only because there are going to be a lot less Lib Dem MPs for the media to interview!

  31. Tom Brake will be the sole Liberal Democrat in London, having narrowly held his seat.

    LDem 16,603 34.9%
    Con 15,093 31.7%
    Lab 7,150 15.0%
    UKIP 7,049 14.8%
    Green 1,492 3.1%
    Other 226 0.5%

    Majority 1,510

  32. Given the context of the evening, this is probably the LD’s most impressive hold.

  33. I never thought this would be the only LD seat in London.

  34. Tristan – FA.

  35. Anyone want to try explain how Cable and Davey lost, yet Brake held on..

  36. I think Brake himself has said he was lucky and they were targeted.

  37. It is a real shame how the party lost so much in London and the SW.

  38. ‘Anyone want to try explain how Cable and Davey lost, yet Brake held on..’

    Brake was more visible in his constituency, as unlike Cable and Davey he wasn’t a cabinet minister and therefore had more time to devote to constituency business

    Also, there is more of a core Labour vote for the Lib Dems to squeeze in Carshalton and Wallington than Kingston or Twickenham and Brake is the type of left-leaning Lib Dem able to exploit it, despite the coalition

  39. One explanation is that maybe there was a big swing from Tory to UKIP on the St Helier council estate. The other LD seats in London didn’t have a comparable area where that sort of swing might have occurred.

  40. Ed Davey’s now former seat contains Norbiton which these days can go Labour in good local election years. Maybe they went Labour last week.

    Again there is something sad on a personal level for the Lib Dems who built up such a base of support in that suburban SW London arc only to be left with one.

  41. On the one hand I expect that the Lib Dems would be able to squeeze the Labour vote again in SW London come the next election as they will no longer have the Coalition baggage weighing them down and as this election demonstrated these seats are quite clearly Con/Lib Dem battles. I am sure some of the people who reverted to Labour in these seats are now probably regretting that decision.

    That said there are two factors that will make it harder

    1) Loss of incumbency ‘bonus’ – with the exception of Tom Brake there will probably be new Lib Dem challengers in most of the SW London targets for the Lib Dems. I certainly cannot see Vince standing again and some of the other former MPs may also have hung up their boots by then.

    2) Boundary reform – the original proposals for the Carshalton and Wallington seat – lumping a chunk of Croydon in with it – would have made it exceedingly difficult for Tom brake to hold it – not impossible – but very very tough. Assuming that the Tories have a free hand now to push the boundary changes through I fear it will be gerrymandered tin such a way to create new SW London seats that are much more challenging for the Lib Dems to dominate.

  42. It’s just dawned on me that Carshalton & Wallington is the only LD seat in the whole of southern England (not counting Norfolk in that category).

  43. Oddly the LibDem majority is higher now than it was in 2005.

    I expect changing demographics have helped them somewhat.

  44. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11603782/Im-a-Tory-who-lost-to-a-Lib-Dem-MP.-What-sort-of-two-headed-monster-am-I.html

    I take from this that
    1. Lack of/cutting off of support from Tory HQ is a sore point
    2. The Tories fully expect that the implementation of a boundary review will get them the result the voters of Carshalton and Wallington chose not to give them in numerous elections now.

    Whilst Tom Brake’s success has in large part been down to his own actions, the Tories really didn’t help themselves with their candidates in the past, which gave the Lib Dems the room to entrench here and turn many red-leaners yellow to keep them out. I’ve no idea how good a candidate Matthew Maxwell Scott was, but even a good Tory candidate with money growing on trees in the back garden would struggle to take this back from Tom Brake now (under existing boundaries).

  45. ^ agree with the above, those 15% LAB and dare I say a few UKIP are waiting to be squeezed again imo

  46. Strong LibDem performance here (apologies as I don’t have comps).:

    Steve Cook was elected to be the new councillor in Wallington South.

    The results were as follows:

    UKIP 164
    Liberal Democrats 1251
    Labour. 181
    Independent 180
    Greens. 122
    Conservative 936

  47. A good result for the Lib Dems. This is the kind of wars the Cons need to win to have any hope of gaining the council in 2018. It’s a very affluent ward not MOR at all. I sense the Conservatives will make inroads in the Sutton and Cheam wards but get pretty much nothing in this seat. They may get the Beddington South and Carshalton South and Clockhouse. There next best ward is actually Beddington North which is the more ordinary part of Beddington yet again there isn’t much deprivation there either probably has the Thatcherite WWC vote. Where as this ward is middle class and even upper class in parts around Woodcote Road but the middle class vote in this seat is perhaps quite liberal leaning.

  48. The Lib Dems will be safe here after holding on this time.
    The stupendous momentum just needs to rejug back into geer.

    An 13-15,000 majority is inevitable here.

  49. No way will there be a 13-15,000 maj for the Libs in 2020. There could be that kind of majority in next door in Sutton and Cheam however for the Conservatives!!!!!!

  50. LOL

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