Carshalton & Wallington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15093 (31.7%)
Labour: 7150 (15%)
Lib Dem: 16603 (34.9%)
Green: 1492 (3.1%)
UKIP: 7049 (14.8%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1510 (3.2%)

Category: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Sutton council area.

Main population centres: Carshalton, Wallington.

Profile: An affluent residential seat, but less so than some of the other Liberal Democrat strongholds in south-west London - this is more middle-of-the-road suburbia than it is luxury. There are also substantial council estates here, with the Roundshaw development on the old Croydon Airport site and the southern half of the large St Helier estate.

Politics: Once a solid Conservative seat this fell to the Liberal Democrats in 1997. The old core of Labour support has been squeezed by the Con-Lib Dem contest, with the old areas of Labour strength on the council estates now bases of Lib Dem support.


Current MP
TOM BRAKE (Liberal Democrat) Born 1962, Melton Mowbray. Educated at Lycee International, St Germaine and Imperial College London. Former computer software consultant. Hackney councillor 1988-1990, Sutton councillor 1994-1998. Contested Carshalton and Wallington 1992. First elected as MP for Carshalton and Wallington in 1997. Deputy Leader of the House of Commons 2012-2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16920 (37%)
Lab: 4015 (9%)
LDem: 22180 (48%)
UKIP: 1348 (3%)
Oth: 1455 (3%)
MAJ: 5260 (11%)
2005*
Con: 16289 (38%)
Lab: 7396 (17%)
LDem: 17357 (40%)
UKIP: 1111 (3%)
Oth: 908 (2%)
MAJ: 1068 (2%)
2001
Con: 13742 (34%)
Lab: 7466 (18%)
LDem: 18289 (45%)
GRN: 614 (2%)
Oth: 501 (1%)
MAJ: 4547 (11%)
1997
Con: 16223 (34%)
Lab: 11565 (24%)
LDem: 18490 (38%)
Oth: 856 (2%)
MAJ: 2267 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW MAXWELL SCOTT (Conservative) Born 1976, London. Educated at Eton and Edinburgh University. Speechwriter. Wandsworth councillor since 2010.
SIOBHAN TATE (Labour) Art and design teacher.
TOM BRAKE (Liberal Democrat) See above.
WILLIAM MAIN-IAN (UKIP) Born Scotland. Educated at Nairn Academy. Retired police officer.
ROSS HEMINGWAY (Green) Educated at Nottingham University. Communications officer.
RICHARD EDMONDS (National Front) Born 1943, Hounslow. Educated at Southampton University. Contested Deptford O1974 for the National Front, Lewisham East 1983, Bethnal Green and Stepney 1992 for the BNP, Croydon North 2012 by-election for the NF.
ASHLEY DICKENSON (CPA)
Links
Comments - 258 Responses on “Carshalton & Wallington”
  1. I agree with the comments though Labour have only ever won the GLC seat in 1973. The actual parlamentary was never ultra marginal even in 1974. The tories had huge majorities here in 1983 and 1987. without the LD intervention Labour could have won here in year like 1997 and 2001 but like Putney, Wimbledon and Bexleyheath would have reverted back to the cons in 2005. Twickenham and Kingston could even have been won by Labour as they had a left-leaning middle class simlar to Wimbledon. Sutton & Cheam would have remained solid blue. It’s too much like Bromley or Croydon South to ever go Labour.

  2. Andrew Pelling (former Crydon Central MP) tried Labour seleciton here but he was beaten by Siobhan Tate (a teacher from Islington)

  3. I thought Andrew Pelling was running for Croydon council next year.

  4. Siobhan Tate has been selected for Labour, denying Andrew Pelling that honour.

  5. Whoops, should have refreshed before posting.

  6. 2015 Prediction

    Lib Dem: 41
    Conservative 31
    UKIP: 13
    Labour: 12
    Others: 3

  7. Lib Dem 40
    Con 33
    Lab 16
    Ukip 7
    Grn 2
    Bnp 2

  8. Who knows, this seat may end up like Streatham, where the Conservatives once had a strong dominance before a combination of changing demographics and an unpopular national government.

  9. Iain Dale’s list of predictions had this down as a likely Conservative gain, which doesn’t seem at all likely to me.

  10. Andy JS- Dale actually had it down as a ‘possible’ Conservative gain but even that is pushing it.

    On the whole, his list wasn’t too bad for a Westminster politico. His predictions of a ‘probable Lib Dem hold’ in Edinburgh West and ‘probable Conservative gain’ in Sutton and Cheam caused my left eyebrow to ascend but many of his predictions were reasonably astute.

    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015

  11. But Inverness and Leeds NW are certainly not “definite LD holds” as he predicted.

  12. Not sure about his prediction for Cardiff Central. Out of the target seats that require a more robust swing, it’s probably in Labour’s reach.

  13. I wouldn’t have inverness or Leeds NW as definite LD holds, but I would regard them as improbable losses.

  14. So the Sutton Council election results are in and the Lib Dems have successfully defended their grip on the Council and even gained seats – despite their big losses elsewhere and their already commanding majority in Sutton.

    Looks like UKIP definitely put a dent in Tory prospects and as a result the Tories actually lost a few seats to the Lib Dems.

    Labour did not enjoy much of a bounce back here. They were trounced quite convincingly in the more working class wards of St Helier and Wandle Valley – which were formerly their historic strongholds on Sutton Council. On St Helier the UKIP candidate actually came in fourth behind the three Lib Dem Councillors.

    Beddington South – which incorporates the Roundshaw Housing Estate – but also now incorporates the extremely wealthy Woodcote area – split 2 Cons to 1 Lib Dem – reflecting the result last time. The Lib Dem Councillor actually polled the most votes but the two other Lib Dem candidates received approximately 300 votes less – allowing the Tories to take the 2nd and 3rd Council seat.

    John Keys – a former Lib Dem Councillor in the Beddington North ward – switched to Labour mid-term and decided to re-contest in St Helier (which is traditionally more strongly Labour). He failed and the Lib Dems also recaptured his Beddington North seat – despite controversy over a proposed incinerator.

    So it seems Sutton and its parliamentary seats of Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington remain Lib Dem strongholds despite the party’s national woes.

    Unless the party slides even further from its current poll ratings (can it possibly) or UKIP declines to stand here, it is hard to see Tom Brake losing in Carshalton in the next election.

    There is certainly no indication whatsoever of a Labour resurgence here and there is no doubt that the ‘vote Labour get a Tory constituency MP’ message will continue to be rammed home by the apparently very active Lib Dem organisation in this constituency.

  15. Miriam Purdom

    Lib Dems will hold the Sutton council with at least 40 seats next year,
    and a 5,000+ majority here

    September 5th, 2013 at 10:40 pm

    H.Hemmelig

    I think that’s a bit optimistic from a Lib Dem perspective.

    The Labour vote in the St Helier wards is bound to go up quite considerably. This reflects the changing demographics of the area (black voters being more loyal to Labour) as much as previous left wing tactical voters being upset by the coalition.

    My guess at this stage would be a Lib Dem hold by about 2000. The majority could well be lower than in Sutton & Cheam, where there a far lower natural vote for Labour.

    Oh dear…..

  16. LOL

    Well the general election hasn’t happened yet. I don’t think a Lib Dem majority of 2000 is a stupid prediction.

  17. Tom Brake should still hold I think. This is one of a very small number of areas that has proved reliable recently for the Lib Dems, and TB has now been here 17 years, so is the favourite to hold on fairly easily.

  18. I would love for the Tories to start winning back these seats but I cannot see it happening in 2015.

  19. Especially not here, LBernard-this is one of only a handful of seats where UKIP could do remotely well-and as with the local elections in Sutton earlier this year, they will likely end up strengthening the Lib Dems’ position (unintentionally) by splitting the otherwise strong Conservative vote.

  20. I meant only a handful of seats in London-sorry about the inadvertent omission in my last post.

  21. Four major parties have their candidates:

    Liberal democrat- Tom Brake
    Conservative- Matthew Maxwell Scott
    Labour- Siobhan Tate
    UKIP- William Main-Ian

  22. Prediction

    Liberal democrat- Tom Brake 18,155
    Conservative- Matthew Maxwell Scott 12,277
    UKIP- William Main-Ian 8,815
    Labour- Siobhan Tate 6,017
    Others 1,150

    Majority 5,878

  23. Prediction

    Liberal democrat- Tom Brake 18,155
    Conservative- Matthew Maxwell Scott 12,277
    UKIP- William Main-Ian 8,815
    Labour- Siobhan Tate 6,017
    Others 1,150

    Majority 5,878.

  24. I think that is within a credible range (if the election degenerates – as it could).
    I hope it’s not the most likely outcome though and we have a C v Lab battle nationally.

  25. Surrey the lib dems may well hold here but not by that many votes IMHO given their national numbers.

  26. What about the way the Lb Dems have managed to hold up incredibly well locally in Sutton in the council elections in recent years, similar to next-door Sutton and Cheam, and what about Tom Brake’s own personal vote? I would have guessed those two things could realistically lead to the prediction made above by Surrey Politics actually happening in reality in May.

  27. @the results. Because they are averaging 8% in the national polls. You don’t drop 15% and not take a hit even in held seats. If they hold this i think it will be by less than 2000 votes.

  28. Ben makes an interesting point, but I suspect that Carshalton & Wallington will possibly end up one of the safest seats for the Lib Dems in London. Brake is very well liked in the local area, he is very visible, out campaigning on street stalls at the weekend in the two main town centres and does a huge amount of casework, many people I have spoken to in Wallington are saying though they dislike the Lib Dems, they like Tom Brake and will still back him at the general election.

    Brake has certainly created an image as a local man who cares about the local area. I suspect the Lib Dems will hold with at least a majority of 3-4,000.

  29. Hi all,

    Tom Brake was on the by-election coverage on BBC last week and came across very well despite his party’s possission. I think it would be fair to say that the swing Lib Dem -> Con will be far smaller than the Western counties of Cornwall and Devon.

    Conventional wisdom is that Brake will prevail here because of the candidate, although my own belief is that this will be closer than many predict. Carshalton & Wallington is an area of Lib Dem strength undeniably, it remains to be seen how far the narrative of “Labour vs Con for government” washes.In lieu of that I believe Brake will hold but wouldn’t be surprised to see the majority down to 1,000

  30. Ross Hemingway has been selected for the Green Party, he stood in Carshalton South and Clockhouse at the 2014 local elections.

  31. Tom Brake seems pretty popular. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break 50% next time and push his majority way up

  32. Tom Brake is also rather lucky all the opposition parties, including the conservatives, seem badly organised here….

  33. I think Tom Brake’s share will decline, but his majority could actually rise. My prediction right now:

    LD 41
    Con 30
    UKIP 14
    Lab 13
    Oth 2

  34. Labour have much more potential than that here & would be very disappointed with 13%, given their historical strength in St Helier and the demographic trends on outer London WWC council estates….however if the local election results are a good guide then yours is perhaps not an unrealistic forecast.

    I do think UKIP easily have the potential to bring the Lib Dems under 40% and the Tories under 30% here, whilst as you say maintaining a comfortable majority for Brake.

  35. The St Helier Estate is divided between Merton and Sutton but demographically and politically very different.

    The Sutton half of the estate still has more a WWC white van man demographic and has massive UKIP potential

    The Morden half of the estate however is far more inner city in demographic and voting patterns. It also has the tube and multicultural town centre.

    Mitcham and Morden also had the highest Labour vote of any consituency in London in the 2014 local elections.

    Sutton and Mitcham/Morden are about as different as Bromley and Lewisham.

  36. “The St Helier Estate is divided between Merton and Sutton but demographically and politically very different.

    The Sutton half of the estate still has more a WWC white van man demographic and has massive UKIP potential”.

    That seems to be correct when you go here: http://londondatastore-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/instant-atlas/lsoa-atlas/atlas.html

    The Output Areas on the Merton half of the estate appear quite a bit more diverse than those on the Sutton side.

    I am sure this will start to change in time (particularly as RTB starts to become BTL on the Sutton side as it has on the Merton side).

  37. The split is also shown in the 2012 mayoral election where the Sutton St Helier ward continued to back Boris whereas the Merton St Helier ward shifted over to Livingstone.

  38. Major party candidates:

    Con: Matthew Maxwell Scott
    Lab: Siobhan Tate
    LD: Tom Brake
    UKIP: William Main-Ian
    Greens: Ross Hemingway

  39. Don’t know why the greens are even bothering. This will stay safely LibDem

  40. Presumably they want to maximise their national share by having as many candidates as possible.

  41. Teddy…. yes, you’re right Carshalton & Wallington will most likely stay Lib Dem. Maybe all parties shouldn’t bother standing in any seat which they have no chance winning? Why should The Greens not bother standing? Maybe Labour and UKIP should just stand aside… hell, the Tories should to… I mean why stand against your coalition partners. The Lib Dems are of course all things to all voters, why would anyone want to stand against them!

  42. 2011 census

    Ethnicity

    St Helier (Merton) White British 53.5%, Asian 21.8%, White Other 11.6%, Black 7.8%

    St Helier (Sutton) White British 67.4%, Asian 12.8%,
    Black 7.1%, White Other 7.0%

  43. Interesting that the black % is similar, and quite low. It is the Asians making up most of the difference and I’m surprised how high the number is. From appearances I would say that Mitcham & Morden overall would be 20-25% black at least, and that blacks would outnumber Asians there to a similar degree as North Croydon or Lewisham.

  44. H Hemmelig- interestingly Asians outnumber blacks and strikingly so in the Morden half of the constituency.

    2011

    Mitcham and Morden constituency

    Asian 21.7%
    Black 17.4%

    In Croydon North, blacks outnumber Asians 31.5% to 23.4% as you thought.

  45. Very interesting and thanks for the stats.

    Based on who you see on the street, you would expect the difference between black and Asian to be far higher than that in north Croydon. It must simply reflect the fact that Asians roam around the streets a lot less (and the reasonable assumption that there are a disproportionately high amount of Asian stay-at-home women).

  46. Mitcham and Morden constituency

    Asian 21.7%
    Black 17.4%

    IIRC MM has particularly high numbers of Tamils.

    In addition the establishment of a large mosque in Morden has no doubt encouraged the settling of more Muslims in the area who tend to be of Asian descent.

  47. The Merton side has a sizeably higher “White Other” too.

    I assume this reflects a higher level of popularity with Eastern Europeans, being that crucial bit closer to the tube and jobs in Central London?

  48. And that was the 2011 status I would now say its demographically changed even further. Ravensbury would now under 50% white english. The demographic change is due to both the mosque and the tube station. A lot of the WWC in St Helier and Mitcham have moved to Sutton and Epsom (because they don’t want to live with “foriegners”). Lower Morden, Cannon Hill and the Morden bits of Merton Park are also seeing demographic change as well which is why I can never see Labour losing Merton again, ditto Enfield.

  49. RR – I went to a party in the Merton part of St Helier a few years back and nearly everyone there was Antipodean or South African. I got the impression there were a large number of people from these backgrounds in the area

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